Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

I know someone with an order for one based in LA and they haven't been contacted about taking delivery. Have had the order for 1+ year at this point.

Does seem odd to have all that inventory and not reaching out to others on the list.

That's just mind-blowingly stupid. Inventory on the lot, outstanding orders . . .



/me goes to look up put prices on LCID

 

[mongo]

I'm confused by your response. Did Vanguard have a larger TSLA position prior to this filing ? Blackrock and Vanguard now control almost 13% between them.

To allay some conern, Vanguard is a brokerage; halfish of my shares are there, and I vote them.

 

[NicoV]

Oh come on, this guy has to be trolling the world right?


How can anyone be THAT stupid?!?!??!

Well, we now had a second Spiegel bottom. That’s an achievement.

 

[scaesare]

That's just mind-blowingly stupid. Inventory on the lot, outstanding orders . . .



/me goes to look up put prices on LCID

Wonder if these are cars that are missing some critical item (backordered part, SW fix, etc...)?

Reminds me of the lots full of VW ID.4's waiting for some manual SW update. I also recall that Tesla had to scramble when they had a shortage of a simple USB cable they couldn't "complete" cars without...

 

[larmor]

Wonder if these are cars that are missing some critical item (backordered part, SW fix, etc...)?

Reminds me of the lots fill of VW ID.4's waiting for some manual VW update. I also recall that Tesla had to scramble when they had a shortage of a simple USB cable they couldn't "complete" cars without...

Air suspension, Lucid cars, high end, are missing air suspension...

 

[Buckminster]

New poll:
Poll - Investor Day Bingo

 

[Ogre]

Seems like we smashed through that $200 Call wall. Or do people still think the MM are still going to be fight for $200 this afternoon and tomorrow?

 

[Max Plaid]

I am the opposite. This is entirely WHY I am a long term TSLA holder. Companies like GM, Ford, VW are all about the next quarters financial results. This is why those companies churn out ridiculous 'concept cars' and pay for superbowl adverts. They want the headline tomorrow, or this month, to boost their compensation plans before they quit and jump ship to another company, often another sector. They have zero short term thinking.

Elon is a big fan of the sci-fi writer Iain M Banks. One of his best books has the story of a starship(sleeper service) which overnight transforms itself into the fastest ship ever built, containing the largest warfleet of ships ever conceived, all built in incredible time...because the ship had spent the last 30 years or so doing nothing but *planning* how to do it.

This is a philosophy I think Elon admires and enjoys. he does not give a damn about whether the stock pops after investors day 2023. He is planning for 2030 and beyond, maybe even to 2050.

Huge advances cannot be made with just short term thinking. Tesla is planning how to totally dominate transport, energy and robotics/AI in 2030+. I would happily watch the share price stay flat for 7 years if thats what it takes for them to achieve their 2030 goal.

That's it, now I have to read Excession again...

 

[Skryll]

I ordered an X in December for that very reason. Wound up cancelling for other reasons, but I'm sure the 179 loophole is a huge part of X sales.

CT will get me that deduction this year, hopefully. (although only 80% now).

The X is the best travel machine IMHO, more space than the Y, more sophisticated suspension resulting in smoother ride. I found that the 2020 Model X Plus is a lot smoother on the freeway than I remember the 2016 Model X to be, which already was a big step up from the Honda Odyssey we traded in for it. The main reason why we didnt go with a new 2022 X is that my wife just doesnt want the funky steering wheel and the horizontal screen. I personally prefer the horizontal screen but for her it was a show-stopper. I wonder if offering the round steering wheel is now going to move some more X than before?

Also the cost of the X is quite high, this didnt feel like it mattered when you were sitting on 400% gain on your Tesla investments, but currently with less than half that, the choice to buy one may be harder to make, less FU money.

 

[scaesare]

Air suspension, Lucid cars, high end, are missing air suspension...

There you go (source for that?).

 

[Ogre]

Also the cost of the X is quite high, this didnt feel like it mattered when you were sitting on 400% gain on your Tesla investments, but currently with less than half that, the choice to buy one may be harder to make, less FU money.

At some point, Model X and Model S production just won’t make sense. As the gap in functionality between Tesla’s more affordable mass-produced vehicles and their boutique line shrinks, Tesla will either need to cut production or sacrifice margins on these cars.

Hard to see Tesla investing more in this line unless they are going to lower prices a bunch and switch to higher volume production.

 

[Zaxxon]

I wouldn't be shocked to see more discounts on the S and X lineup this year as well, especially the X where inventory does not appear to have been materially reduced by the price cuts to date. Either they'll be moved through discounts or the inventory will just be sat on because it's small potatoes compared to the 3/Y lineup.

Here I lie, waiting to pounce...

What if they retired the Model X to convert and divert production.
CyberTruck for one reason. This depends on how many wanted an X for the tow capacity or tax write-offs.

Shame on you for even saying it. The X is an amazing machine, and I hope it lives forever. It's also quite distinct from the Cybertruck in target demo and capability.

It would be great if Tesla instead worked to raise capacity of S/X, bring the megacasting process over, and get the S/X to a more reasonable price point. I can't tell you how many X would sell if the lineup was Y starting at ~$50k and X starting at $70k/$75k, but it's... large.

 

[Nocturnal]

^If the X dropped to anywhere close to that I'd 100% upgrade my girl's Y for the X. 5 of us fit in the Y, but throw in 2 dogs and some luggage and we are sardines.

The X is the best travel machine IMHO, more space than the Y, more sophisticated suspension resulting in smoother ride. I found that the 2020 Model X Plus is a lot smoother on the freeway than I remember the 2016 Model X to be, which already was a big step up from the Honda Odyssey we traded in for it. The main reason why we didnt go with a new 2022 X is that my wife just doesnt want the funky steering wheel and the horizontal screen. I personally prefer the horizontal screen but for her it was a show-stopper. I wonder if offering the round steering wheel is now going to move some more X than before?

Also the cost of the X is quite high, this didnt feel like it mattered when you were sitting on 400% gain on your Tesla investments, but currently with less than half that, the choice to buy one may be harder to make, less FU money.

Yup. Before last year I'd have just upgraded my Y to an X and still picked up the CT for myself. This year I had to pick and I need my stainless triangle.

Round steering wheel should help.

 

[totoro722]

I would hate to see Tesla abandon a position in luxury cars to focus exclusively on the more “affordable” product line. I get that Elon wants to sell as many electric cars as possible as part of his focus on electrification, but I think there will always be a market for higher end cars for Tesla. It would seem a shame to drop out of that area of the market after having established a good position in it.

 

[Mengy]

I would hate to see Tesla abandon a position in luxury cars to focus exclusively on the more “affordable” product line. I get that Elon wants to sell as many electric cars as possible as part of his focus on electrification, but I think there will always be a market for higher end cars for Tesla. It would seem a shame to drop out of that area of the market after having established a good position in it.

Tesla doesn't need to abandon anything. They will continue to produce S-X-3-Y's alongside the more affordable Gen 3 cars which will cost much less. Although I would expect the prices of Tesla luxury cars to come down over time as the company scales up.

 

[MP3Mike]

There you go (source for that?).

They aren't missing air suspension parts, they don't have/offer air suspension on any of their vehicles.

 

[GOVA]

At some point, Model X and Model S production just won’t make sense. As the gap in functionality between Tesla’s more affordable mass-produced vehicles and their boutique line shrinks, Tesla will either need to cut production or sacrifice margins on these cars.

Hard to see Tesla investing more in this line unless they are going to lower prices a bunch and switch to higher volume production.

Sense?

There are plenty of people who want to buy S/X/PLAID

Model S and Model X do occupy high level of segment that needs to be filled. If not, others will do it eventually. Tesla needs S/X for as long as that segment is recognized.

 

[Dutchie]

Woz said that Elon defrauded him and his family:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623655340993662978

I felt the same last month with TSLA @ $110. Feel a bit better about Elon now.

 

[Ogre]

I would hate to see Tesla abandon a position in luxury cars to focus exclusively on the more “affordable” product line. I get that Elon wants to sell as many electric cars as possible as part of his focus on electrification, but I think there will always be a market for higher end cars for Tesla. It would seem a shame to drop out of that area of the market after having established a good position in it.

Sense?

There are plenty of people who want to buy S/X/PLAID

Model S and Model X do occupy high level of segment that needs to be filled. If not, others will do it eventually. Tesla needs S/X for as long as that segment is recognized.

Just feels like the Model X/ S are going to need to change. Build up of Model X inventory even after the price drop being a big symptom. It’s not so much that they are not competitive with other luxury cars, it’s that the Model Y keeps getting better and more affordable.

GOVA probably has the right of it. Just perhaps moving down the price curve or maybe Tesla just exports more.

 

[Drumheller]

Sense?

There are plenty of people who want to buy S/X/PLAID

Model S and Model X do occupy high level of segment that needs to be filled. If not, others will do it eventually. Tesla needs S/X for as long as that segment is recognized.

If not for the upcoming roadster, I'd plan on getting the Model S plaid. If Tesla is going to keep pushing the roadster out, then I think they should just cancel it. It's the most exciting upcoming vehicle for me as a fan but there may also be other people that would buy a plaid if not waiting for the roadster.