Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Demonstrating one of the big frustrations we're going to encounter as companies with other brands of cars start using Superchargers.

Anyone spot it?

Plug in on the opposite side

 

[Ogre]

2 min to connect?
Charging cable short?
60 cents per kWh?

Plug in on the opposite side

@wipster saw it.

The BMW is plugged in on the wrong side so it effectively takes up 2 stalls on a normal Supercharger. The Rivian is wrong ended too. There are 4 corners and 4 sides to choose from. Tesla stalls work well with 2 of the corners and 2 of the sides... companies with cars on the driver's front, the passenger rear, or in the middle of the sides of the car just won't work well.

 

[Krugerrand]

So delivery time has increased to over six weeks? What is so special about that? Electrek pumping the stock.

It’s special because you and your ilk were screaming demand problem just a few weeks ago. And the month before that. And the year before that. And last decade.

 

[Ogre]

Spoke to a Ford person today. He said he thinks they'll split the company and the shares. ICE can still be very profitable "without the EV side, the ICE stock could actually go up for a while."
O
M
G
Anyone want to time that one?

It's a great idea. IPO the electric side of the business, it can be 80% Ford owned initially. The IPO could help them raise funds for Capex. Model E gets some parts and supplies from Ford Blue initially and benefits from their existing infrastructure and contracts.

The ICE side might be more profitable at first... then the reverse will be true (hopefully).

 

[Brn2Run]

It’s special because you and your ilk were screaming demand problem just a few weeks ago. And the month before that. And the year before that. And last decade.

Nope. But I guess you are the one that swallow every word from Musk as the truth... The 20 million guys. Lol.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nope. But I guess you are the one that swallow every word from Musk as the truth... The 20 million guys. Lol.

Meow

 

[Brn2Run]

@wipster saw it.

The BMW is plugged in on the wrong side so it effectively takes up 2 stalls on a normal Supercharger. The Rivian is wrong ended too. There are 4 corners and 4 sides to choose from. Tesla stalls work well with 2 of the corners and 2 of the sides... companies with cars on the driver's front, the passenger rear, or in the middle of the sides of the car just won't work well.

I guess everyone from Norway here can remember when the E-tron came.. Lots of arrogant e-tron buyers claiming that charging cables were too short. Because e-tron has the charge opening almost by the mirror, against the middle of the car. So all charging stations where you either back in, or go with the front in, here most cables were too short for that car.. Im not gonna say they were not bullied by us, because they were...
They argued the whole time that it wasnt Audis fault. We said maybe Audi forgot to check what is the most standard charging station setup. I dont know if there was an end to that discussion, I dont remember any charging cables being switched to longer ones.

 

[MartinAustin]

Spoke to a Ford person today. He said he thinks they'll split the company and the shares. ICE can still be very profitable "without the EV side, the ICE stock could actually go up for a while."
O
M
G
Anyone want to time that one?

That's the only way they can move away from dealerships. Even then it'd be a struggle

 

[Crystal01]

They will never invest in Tesla too bad.

 

[petit_bateau]

This is a tad myopic because you are focusing only on stalls per fleet size, but the most important metric, should be charge time per car. By moving to V2 and then V3, and more efficient cars with smaller pack sizes (i.e. 3/Y) you don't have to grow the supercharger network at the same pace because you make up for some of it with faster turnover per stall.

Our 2013 Model S P85s used to take about an hour to go from 10% to 80% state of charge.

Same jump in state of charge our 3 or Y is more like 30-35 minutes.

I would love to track a whole variety of metrics regarding the Supercharger network and the fleet, and how the two interact.

Unfortunately Tesla only release the #sites and the #connectors. That is rather frustrating as I am quite aware of the limitations. However we go with what we have.

 

[JupiterMan]

It's a great idea. IPO the electric side of the business, it can be 80% Ford owned initially. The IPO could help them raise funds for Capex. Model E gets some parts and supplies from Ford Blue initially and benefits from their existing infrastructure and contracts.

The ICE side might be more profitable at first... then the reverse will be true (hopefully).

This would IMHO be a way of Ford deleting debt and liabilities.

on splitting shares, it could be arranged so that the ICE company would carry the debt, old factories and the majority of the employees, with the new EV business relatively debt free. EV company will then hold most of the IP, brand and patents, much of which would then be licensed back to the ICE company (sucking more money out of the old ICE business)

The ICE business would then become unprofitable over time and ultimately go into bankruptcy, taking with it its debts, the unprofitable factories, and the costs of laying off staff - leaving the EV business clean and debt free and holding the valuable assets.

Should there be a share split, look to see who owns the debt, brand and the IP. This will tell the true story of what's really going on.

 

[Sunlight]

I guess everyone from Norway here can remember when the E-tron came.. Lots of arrogant e-tron buyers claiming that charging cables were too short. Because e-tron has the charge opening almost by the mirror, against the middle of the car. So all charging stations where you either back in, or go with the front in, here most cables were too short for that car.. Im not gonna say they were not bullied by us, because they were...
They argued the whole time that it wasnt Audis fault. We said maybe Audi forgot to check what is the most standard charging station setup. I dont know if there was an end to that discussion, I dont remember any charging cables being switched to longer ones.

Flip side here (South Africa)

Audi sponsored chargers cannot be used ‘properly’ by either our i3 or I-Pace without parking across two bays.

Cables too short! These chargers are supposed to be universal…..

Anyway the charger supplier is apparently changing the cables - I’ll believe it when I see it!

 

[avoigt]

Great tweet by @avoigt :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623269888331481092

View attachment 904941​

Background given by Alex:

• Based on official VW Group and Tesla released data;
• The chart includes the total and officially announced units sold by VW Group and Tesla;
• Includes VW Group ICE units sold.

VW Group has a very difficult, if not impossible, task ahead to change quickly enough in order not to completely "go Kodak".

I had to correct that slide and deleted the tweet but published it in my latest video but the overall statement remains the same. It's been a stupid calculation error on my side however for Volkswagen we have right now just a few hundred dollars in average profits per vehicle sold and that may even go down in the future.

For VW Group numbers look better as the premium vehicles from Audi and Porsche increase profits significantly.

The most interesting part would be comparing profit or loss per BEV sold because that would give us more information about the future of VW but not surprisingly, they don't disclose that number.

 

[nativewolf]

This would IMHO be a way of Ford deleting debt and liabilities.

on splitting shares, it could be arranged so that the ICE company would carry the debt, old factories and the majority of the employees, with the new EV business relatively debt free. EV company will then hold most of the IP, brand and patents, much of which would then be licensed back to the ICE company (sucking more money out of the old ICE business)

The ICE business would then become unprofitable over time and ultimately go into bankruptcy, taking with it its debts, the unprofitable factories, and the costs of laying off staff - leaving the EV business clean and debt free and holding the valuable assets.

Should there be a share split, look to see who owns the debt, brand and the IP. This will tell the true story of what's really going on.

The fact that it is Ford planning this and not GM or VW or Toyota speaks to who is actually taking Tesla and EVs seriously . Said it and say it again Ford is impressive- the only OEM that I can find has announced or is building battery capacity to transition. They have done so very quickly. Deal with CATL was a brilliant bit of deal making it seems to me. They need to improve the guts of the EV but they at least seem to have a plan.

 

[NicoV]

In regards for how the whole billing and stuff would take place, my bet is on the QR code for each stall.

Remember when Elon said "Copy WeChat"? And Twitter has recently filed application to become a payment processor?

For those unfamiliar with the whole WeChat/AliPay that pretty much accounts for 99.9% of daily transactions now in China if I were there, the merchant would have a QR code that you scan or sometimes you'd open your app to pay, it generates a QR code for them to scan, and you submit the payment. Everything is integrated on the backend to handle everything. In fact, when you get paid (say from F&F or just selling something) in WeChat/AliPay, the money don't actually go into your bank account or whatever. It just sits there like PayPal balance.

So, this is one of the ways, that I think from a 4D chess that Elon is playing's perspective it's going to go down.

Tesla payment will also grow from there. I believe the day that you need to pull out your card/phone to pay at a drive-through will be behind us very soon. The car itself will handle everything.

Payment via QR code, from one bank account to another, without an intermediate account already exists a long time in the Benelux. In Belgium it’s pretty much wide-spread (it’s called Payconiq). Apart from private-to-private person payments, it’s also used by businesses. In some cases as their only way of paying without cash (they can save the subscription fees for bank card terminals).
The Belgian/Dutch Payconiq is the prime candidate to be chosen by European Commission for Europe-wide use (see Belgisch Payconiq in poleposition voor Europees betaalsysteem), mostly to provide some competition to the US-based credit card companies.
I see no future in Europe for whatever payment mechanism Tesla or Elon comes up with.

 

[jerry33]

They are only going to open select Supercharger sites. i.e. ones that have low utilization. Most likely only V3 sites.

Also, you won't be sharing chargers with a Leaf, as they can't use CCS, and Tesla isn't going to be supporting CHAdeMO. Now sharing with a Bolt will be bad, they charge so slow...

Perhaps Tesla will go to the "You get what the other car doesn't use" algorithm.

 

[jerry33]

97% uptime would mean they can only be down 263 hours a year (24 x 365 x 0.03), or less than an hour a day. I assume that means individual stalls must be at 97%. 97% uptime isn't that impressive, but considering that right now it seems they are at 97% downtime, it is a big improvement

It would be, but I guess they will go for "the site being down", so if there is one working charger (even if it's not at the full charging rate, it's not down. Stupid way to do it, but that's my guess. I don't have a lot of confidence in them doing the right thing.

 

[chiller]

See according to EA, the chargers are online. It says so on the screen and from the app. It's only offline once you plug it in, so if you don't plug it in, it'll be online.

Ah, good old Schrödinger's charger.

 

[Mengy]

Spoke to a Ford person today. He said he thinks they'll split the company and the shares. ICE can still be very profitable "without the EV side, the ICE stock could actually go up for a while."
O
M
G
Anyone want to time that one?

I think Ford would be smart to do so for a variety of reasons. I also think this is inevitable for Ford as they seem to be making decisions in preparation for this very act.

 

[JoRoMo]

Perhaps Tesla will go to the "You get what the other car doesn't use" algorithm.

I guess general coverage has been (and should be) part of the discussions, so I would expect a few stalls across many (if not most) sites to be modified/supplemented and opened up?