Scale will come with new emergent properties for the EV market. The fact that the rest of the market is currently growing EV production faster than Tesla does not necessarily indicate that this will still be happening one or two orders of magnitude later. Too many people are extrapolating the recent trend without understanding why it's been happening and why it will probably change.
We have zero conclusive evidence that anybody else besides Tesla is making money on selling EVs yet. Unless and until this changes, other major EV players
literally can't afford to continue outpacing Tesla's 50-60% CAGR much longer. If they tried then they'd exponentially increase their losses and go bankrupt. It's that simple. Therefore, it's absurd for the market to be looking at EV market share trends without carefully considering this context.
When Tesla is making 10M vehicles in ~2028, will the rest of the industry make 20M? I really doubt it unless somebody else figures out how to do so profitably even as Tesla ratchets up the pressure on competitors year after year with growing demand, industry-leading economies of scale, and amazing cost optimization. I follow this like a full-time job and I see no sign of Tesla's giant cost and value proposition advantage shrinking for the foreseeable future.
Also, in the last year Tesla's growth rate relative to the everyone else has been temporarily suppressed by two short-term factors:
1) S/X refresh ramp
2) Growth mostly coming from Berlin and Texas both being in low-rate initial production
Superficial EV market share analysis misses this context too. Shanghai and Fremont have been putting out pretty close to maximum capacity for the last year, and so there was nowhere for major growth to come from. Now we're getting close to what should be the steepest part of the ramp for Berlin and Texas. This means the CAGR should accelerate in the next two years or so.
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