Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

I'm surprised that I got so many disagrees for suggesting that the Tesla bot demo last night was CGI. Over two thirds of the Swedes over at Tesla Club Sweden share my view.

Var Investor Day videon på Optimus verklig? - Tesla Club Sweden

teslaclubsweden.se

I think it is real.

It looks too clumsy for a CGI generated robot movements.

 

[TrendTrader007]

NVDA market cap $574.99 billion vs TSLA at 601 billion
last time NVDA market cap was larger or even close to tesla market cap was 2019
in my estimate TSLA is going to be a much bigger market cap than NVDA
all it tells me is TSLA is being sold at a steep discount today
i am looking at minimum 30% ARR in tsla share price for next several years
even that may be too conservative
straight long term buy and hold in tsla is total no-brainer
selling tsla temporarily and buying back cheaper every few years is also not a bad strategy, if able to execute
not financial advice

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day - special Investor Day edition:

I have copied across many posts to each of these.

Biggest news of the day IMO
"Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process
Parallel assembly is the holy grail and has made the single gigacasting idea redundant as it is much better.

Next Tesla CEO/COO
Zach?

H/W 4.0 discussion (investors)
S/X availability confirmed

V2G in a robotaxi world
V2H tech coming in two years
Robotaxi coming in ~two years
Timing works perfectly and might explain Elon's hesitancy

Investor Engineering Discussions
Zero earth motors
Tesla Operating System
48V

Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot
Bot building bot - even Elon can't understand that future

Tesla Investor Day Discussion

Gigafactory locations and products
Monterrey to build Gen 3

Telsa Energy and Grid Storage
Two new products this year!

Tesla Van
Not confirmed but looks van shaped

 

[ARON44]

Am I right in saying TSLA has held up pretty well all things considered? I bought a little more before I went to bed at $190 and just woke up and it’s barely moved? many were saying yesterday it was going to tank hard? If it was going to do that it was today? So happy days, hopefully back over $200 again soon?

 

[Knightshade]

It doesn't have to be slow. There is a company that has at least 150kW deployed if I recall correctly.

Edit: They have solutions up to 450kW, though that it most likely for busses/Semis/etc:

Induct EV

High-powered wireless made easy. Helping private and public operators of transit and commercial vehicles power their fleets of the future by providing proven, reliable and efficient wireless charging and seamless solutions and support.

www.inductev.com

Here is a video charging an iPace at ~50kW.

Fair enough- though what Tesla showed the picture of seemed pretty clearly an L2 home charger in a home garage, not a giant cabinet powering a fast DC charging setup like in your video.

Now, if they're ALSO planning to deploy a ton of those- great... but I'm not aware of anything in the presentation suggesting it, and AFAIK the new Gen4 SCs are certainly still wired?

 

[Unpilot]

skedaddling fairly toot sweet for inland

Hey I want to do that...sounds fun...is it easy?

 

[JRP3]

Not "butthurt" in the least. I could care less what anonymous people I'll never meet think of my posts. I'm just surprised that so many here think that demo was actually a real recording of actual Optimus bots. I could tell it was CGI almost immediately.

If it is they spent some time on unnecessary detail. If you zoom in on a larger screen you can see wear on the nuts from repeated use. Why model that instead of just new unused nuts?

 

[lascavarian]

I'm thinking with 4M 12V Tesla's today and that number will continue to grow until MS/MX/M3/MY switch to 48V architecture...There's enough vehicles in service to justify supplying components well beyond 10 years...

Yep, logical.

 

[SmokyPeat]

If it is they spent some time on unnecessary detail. If you zoom in on a larger screen you can see wear on the nuts from repeated use. Why model that instead of just new unused nuts?

View attachment 913064

To add realism. I also think it's quite possible that some of the shots were actually real but staged. CGI has made huge advancements in last 5 or so years. It's just a matter of time before even the most perceptive humans can easily distinguish reality from CGI.

 

[Ogre]

Am I right in saying TSLA has held up pretty well all things considered? I bought a little more before I went to bed at $190 and just woke up and it’s barely moved? many were saying yesterday it was going to tank hard? If it was going to do that it was today? So happy days, hopefully back over $200 again soon?

Agree.

That $200 tractor beam is going to reel us in again before long. I was really hopping we’d escape its embrace before the meeting, but it’s got us locked in for the moment. Looks like P&D in Early April is our next hope for a breakout.

 

[petit_bateau]

They can just swap for ferrite and have a lower power motor, but again, I think they will do more than that, because the savings can be much greater that way

You size a motor with the field strength you plan to run through it, if your field strength is lower due to weaker magnets, you can have less iron, way less iron, it's a linear relationship, so if you magnet is half of the strength and same size, and have half of the magnetic field density, so you can have half of the iron without driving it into saturation

If you just replace the magnets in the same motor, now you have double the necessary iron

Yes. I agree. I've made the switch from ferrites to neos in a previous life. Nearest thing to a free lunch I've ever had in design terms.

That looked an awful small aperture for the magnet. One that would seem to be appropriate for a highly optimised neo design. So the implications of having a ferrite2 'chemistry' that can still deliver the job (and a key attribute of a Tesla is good performance) then, is that there is something outrageous going on there.

So ....... have there been any rumours out there of a new magic ferrite recipe ? (Because I'm no longer in that game). And if not, what else could it be, because I can't figure out anything else that it might be. It's not as if there is really much else left to do in the iron or the copper (or air gap) .... is there ?

 

[keydiver]

If it is they spent some time on unnecessary detail. If you zoom in on a larger screen you can see wear on the nuts from repeated use. Why model that instead of just new unused nuts?

And why have Optimus making mistakes if it was CGI? He appeared to miss the hole the first time, and the drill looked rather crooked on the nut he was installing. The whole thing looked rather clumsy. If they were using CGI to try to sell people on Optimus I think it would have been more fluid and flawless, like the fake CGI Acura EV commercial I've been seeing lately (which you have to look really close and squint your eyes to read "GCI prototype coming in 2025" in a tiny font).

 

[Olle]

The real reason this isn’t being done: Utilities want control, so Tesla is selling them megapack/autobidder. Tesla wants more profits, so selling PW and solar to households. More products, more profitable. Yes, the Tesla mission is sustainable energy, but not at the expense of profits. Once they have run out of scaling issues and the money to fund them, then they will offer V2-Everything.

From cynical perspective it might seem that way. Another way to see it is that there are two competing optimization problems.

A) maximize the use of existing batteries -> V2-Everything
B) maximize the appeal per price of an EV* when compared to ICE -> Not V2-Anything

*V2X impact on appeal: less range and performance because heavier (higher cycle tolerance battery pack and possibly DC-AC conversion built into car unless external inverter sold separately), cost would also rise because of these components. Cost would rise further due to customer service, warranty claims, liability and regulatory approvals for the extra functions.

Tesla's competitiveness vs ICE was instrumental for the mission of sustainable energy so far. The margins were so razor thin in the beginning that we don't even know if Tesla would have existed if they would have made compromises.

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm surprised that I got so many disagrees for suggesting that the Tesla bot demo last night was CGI. Over two thirds of the Swedes over at Tesla Club Sweden share my view.

Var Investor Day videon på Optimus verklig? - Tesla Club Sweden

teslaclubsweden.se

I think it was just the production they used on the video - I mean the robots looked clumsy, jerky, making mistakes, dropping things, if it was CGI they would have made them look better than that

That's my take anyway as I also thought it looked bogus, but was just the over-saturated colour palette IMO

Edit: dogdamn ninja'd by a cat's whisker!

 

[oldTAVguy]

Another 40 chairs today. Why... Because Tesla has a demonstrable record of doing the impossible-adjacent.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I think it is real.

It looks too clumsy for a CGI generated robot movements.

Time will tell. I'm looking forward to a public demo with good lighting, real people in view etc.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

NVDA market cap $574.99 billion vs TSLA at 601 billion
last time NVDA market cap was larger or even close to tesla market cap was 2019
in my estimate TSLA is going to be a much bigger market cap than NVDA
all it tells me is TSLA is being sold at a steep discount today
i am looking at minimum 30% ARR in tsla share price for next several years
even that may be too conservative
straight long term buy and hold in tsla is total no-brainer
selling tsla temporarily and buying back cheaper every few years is also not a bad strategy, if able to execute
not financial advice

Someone please show me a metric that suggests Nvidia should be valued higher than Tesla.
Revenue Growth?
Profit?
Cash Flow?
Debt?

While I'm waiting I'll continue pondering Tesla at half the PE and a lower market cap.

 

[Takumi]

Not "butthurt" in the least. I could care less what anonymous people I'll never meet think of my posts. I'm just surprised that so many here think that demo was actually a real recording of actual Optimus bots. I could tell it was CGI almost immediately.

Do Optimus bots have to be doing parkour or dancing to convince you that it's not CGI?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Am I right in saying TSLA has held up pretty well all things considered? I bought a little more before I went to bed at $190 and just woke up and it’s barely moved? many were saying yesterday it was going to tank hard? If it was going to do that it was today? So happy days, hopefully back over $200 again soon?

Everyone has a different definition of 'tanking hard', my definition of 'tanking hard' was from the period of Sept 2022 - Jan 3, 2023

 

[GhostSkater]

So ....... have there been any rumours out there of a new magic ferrite recipe ? (Because I'm no longer in that game). And if not, what else could it be, because I can't figure out anything else that it might be. It's not as if there is really much else left to do in the iron or the copper (or air gap) .... is there ?

Unfortunately I can't answer that since I don't keep an eye, I'm just dipping my toe in designing motors

But from the specs I've seen, they don't need a new ferrite kind, what is available would work