Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[oldTAVguy]

Giga Austin 4K...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642620967003332612

Only one month behind Berlin?

 

[Ogre]

Giga Texas hit 4,000 Model Ys this month. Seems like they are lagging Berlin by about a month.

I think due to the fact that they are on-and-off producing 4680 Model Ys as supply of the cells becomes available.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642620531391201280

 

[Artful Dodger]

Straight from v10.69.25.2. Although now I'm getting conflicting reports from at least one other that v11.3.4 has not removed the recall from their VIN. So I wonder why it might count for some but not others.

Latency in the update reporting? I'd run the query after at least a day has past if I was them. Personally, I'm on v11.3.3 since last Tue and no offer to update to .4 as of yesterday afternoon.

P.S. FSD beta v11 is a very capable product now, still a little bit shy which is easy to handle with a tap on the accelerator pedal. "Single stack" will likely go wide soon, and I'm looking forward to when Tesla replaces legacy Autopilot with one based on the FSD software stack. That way, all Tesla built after Apr 2018 will have the safety advantages of FSD, and TSLA stock holders will enjoy the benefits of 4M+ deployed AI agents gathering trg data (growing at 2M+ per year).

Cheers!

 

[oldTAVguy]

Giga Texas hit 4,000 Model Ys this month. Seems like they are lagging Berlin by about a month.

I think due to the

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642620531391201280

A bit slow /s

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Tesla Insurance
"Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process
Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts - P&D analysis

 

[Ogre]

This is exactly how forecasting works and how original estimates are derived and refined.

Oh… got it.

My Forecast for Tesla’s Q1 deliveries are 423,000.

How did I do?

 

[Ogre]

A bit slow /s

Not bad for an old guy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

His first "forecast" is no better than wallstreet's forecast...which is a best guess. Then he fine tunes it the entire quarter based on Tesla's execution with misleading indicators. I don't know if this is valuable or not when Tesla is no longer executing with massive surprises like Q1 2019 which I think Troy was the only one who was a debbie downer and was right. That was valuable...now there's just more noise than signal from his analysis.

Construct validity is a beoytch. He'd been closer to the final numbers if he had'nt done multiple updates at the end of the Quarter. But that doen't attract new Patreon subscribers, does it?

I believe Mel Brooks said to Mongo in 1974 "Gentlemen, we gotta protect our phony-balony jobs".

Cheers!

 

[juanmedina]

Real investors don’t care about this narrative BS so I find it hard to believe this FUD still has teeth. Regular old hit piece from Reuters.

Community notes FTW:

 

[theschnell]

If you compare Q over Q, the Tesla growth story is clearly dead

 

[Singuy]

Construct validity is a beoytch. He'd been closer to the final numbers if he had'nt done multiple updates at the end of the Quarter. But that doen't attract new Patreon subscribers, does it?

I believe Mel Brooks said to Mongo in 1974 "Gentlemen, we gotta protect our phony-balony jobs".

Cheers!

I think he gets a lot of flak because his estimates can potentially move the stock. It's frustrating for his estimates to introduce volatility in an already volatile stock when by the time p&d comes out, hindsight dictated all the drama created was a nothing burger.

 

[Ogre]

If you compare Q over Q, the Tesla growth story is clearly dead

And Apple is clearly in a death spiral.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We have confirmation that is still the case? They might be assembling packs in the US with cells shipped from China

I don't think it matters if the pack was assembled in the USA: Treasury Dept, Mar 31, 2023:

"The IRA disqualifies certain vehicles from the section 30D credit if the battery of the vehicle contains critical minerals or battery components from a foreign entity of concern."​

So it's not a reduction in the benefit, it's the whole vehicle that does not qualify for the IRA if this draft regulation is put in force as written. I think the confusion comes from this IRA cause (which applies only to eligible vehicles, EXCLUDING any "foreign entity of concern"):

Treasury Releases Proposed Guidance on New Clean Vehicle Credit to Lower Costs for Consumers, Build U.S. Industrial Base, Strengthen Supply Chains | U.S. Department of the Treasury ( 2 days ago)​

"To be eligible for a $7,500 credit, clean vehicles must meet sourcing requirements for both the critical minerals and battery components contained in the vehicle. Vehicles that meet one of the two requirements are eligible for a $3,750 credit."​

Cheers!

 

[ZsoZso]

Fine I'll go through and compile all of his estimates

06-Jan: 426,000
15-Jan: 438,000
05-Feb: 432,000
14-Feb: 430,000
21-Feb: 421,000
28-Feb: 412,000
07-Mar: 409,000
14-Mar: 413,000
21-Mar: 418,000

Not sure how you arrive at 409,000 being his prediction for the majority of the quarter.

And the Wall Street estimate was holding steady at 421k all this time, not fluctuating up and down between 409k and 438k and still managed to hit much closer than ANY of Troy's numbers !
So, why is it worth paying attention to his ever changing numbers ?
Might as well use the good old fashioned RND() function...

 

[AndrewZ]

Oh… got it.

My Forecast for Tesla’s Q1 deliveries are 423,000.

How did I do?

Those are actuals, not a forecast.

In my world it's Budget vs Actual vs Forecast. Even when you get actuals, there can be accruals in between the date actuals were snapped and when you report. First you budget, then you commit based on those budgets, you track actuals, then you accrue where necessary, and you forecast final values based on the information at hand. You re-forecast at certain time intervals, usually weekly but sometimes even daily during very time-critical work.

You can be sure Tesla does something similar and that's how they allocate production, adjust model mix, procure materials, determine where to ship production, and try to figure out what needs to change in the near future.

And the Wall Street estimate was holding steady at 421k all this time, not fluctuating up and down between 409k and 438k and still managed to hit much closer than ANY of Troy's numbers !
So, why is it worth paying attention to his ever changing numbers ?
Might as well use the good old fashioned RND() function...

That's an analyst consensus, an amalgamation of all forecasts that you'd hope will generally be more accurate.

I'm not sure what source Troy uses, the latest consensus according to Refintiv appears to have been ~430k, but looking back on Troy's tweets I see

06-Jan: 420,000
15-Jan: 421,000
05-Feb: 426,000
14-Feb: 427,000
21-Feb: 428,000
28-Feb: 428,000
07-Mar: 428,000
14-Mar: 420,000
21-Mar: 420,000

Consensus of course cannot exist without many individuals doing their own thing, and apparently there isn't even consensus on which consensus to use.

 

[EVNow]

Except that's not a forecast, it's a nowcast. What value is it adding? Anyone could easily check European numbers to get a good idea of where Tesla was at. China was mostly known, and US was expected to be an increase over last Q with the IRA incentives.

It may not be adding much value to you … but for people who deal with options, it’s useful.

 

[generalenthu]

Surprise output cut by OPEC this weekend and oil is rallying.

Interesting both long term and short term, because even in the short term I felt that the correlation with oil seemed to be increasing

 

[Ogre]

Those are actuals, not a forecast.

In my world it's Budget vs Actual vs Forecast. Even when you get actuals, there can be accruals in between the date actuals were snapped and when you report. First you budget, then you commit based on those budgets, you track actuals, then you accrue where necessary, and you forecast final values based on the information at hand. You re-forecast at certain time intervals, usually weekly but sometimes even daily during very time-critical work.

You can be sure Tesla does something similar and that's how they allocate production, adjust model mix, procure materials, determine where to ship production, and try to figure out what needs to change in the near future.


That's an analyst consensus, an amalgamation of all forecasts that you'd hope will generally be more accurate.

I'm not sure what source Troy uses, the latest consensus according to Refintiv appears to have been ~430k, but looking back on Troy's tweets I see

06-Jan: 420,000
15-Jan: 421,000
05-Feb: 426,000
14-Feb: 427,000
21-Feb: 428,000
28-Feb: 428,000
07-Mar: 428,000
14-Mar: 420,000
21-Mar: 420,000

Consensus of course cannot exist without many individuals doing their own thing, and apparently there isn't even consensus on which consensus to use.

Actuals… just like the insurance numbers from China and reliable delivery numbers from Europe, and the production milestones from Tesla are actual. By the end of the quarter, there isn’t a huge amount of mystery left. Roughly +-5%. His estimate wasn’t particularly good at any point in the quarter. Ironically it was closest about 1 week prior then he ruined that too.

 

[mongo]

I don't think it matters if the pack was assembled in the USA: Treasury Dept, Mar 31, 2023:

"The IRA disqualifies certain vehicles from the section 30D credit if the battery of the vehicle contains critical minerals or battery components from a foreign entity of concern."​

So it's not a reduction in the benefit, it's the whole vehicle that does not qualify for the IRA if this draft regulation is put in force as written. I think the confusion comes from this IRA cause (which applies only to eligible vehicles, EXCLUDING any "foreign entity of concern"):

Treasury Releases Proposed Guidance on New Clean Vehicle Credit to Lower Costs for Consumers, Build U.S. Industrial Base, Strengthen Supply Chains | U.S. Department of the Treasury ( 2 days ago)​

"To be eligible for a $7,500 credit, clean vehicles must meet sourcing requirements for both the critical minerals and battery components contained in the vehicle. Vehicles that meet one of the two requirements are eligible for a $3,750 credit."​

Cheers!

True, but that clause does not take effect until after Dec 31, 2023 for modules and Dec 31, 2024 for critical minerals.
Your link:

Beginning in 2024, an eligible clean vehicle may not contain any battery components that are manufactured by a foreign entity of concern and beginning in 2025 an eligible clean vehicle may not contain any critical minerals that were extracted, processed, or recycled by a foreign entity of concern.

legislation:

7) EXCLUDED ENTITIES.—For purposes of this section, the term ‘new clean vehicle’ shall not include—
(A) any vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2024, with respect to which any of the applicable critical minerals contained in the battery of such vehicle (as described in subsection (e)(1)(A)) were extracted, processed, or recycled by a foreign entity of concern (as defined in section 40207(a)(5) of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (42 U.S.C. 18741(a)(5))), or
(B) any vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2023, with respect to which any of the components contained in the battery of such vehicle (as described in subsection (e)(2)(A)) were manufactured or assembled by a foreign entity of concern (as so defined).’’.

 

[Brn2Run]

If you compare Q over Q, the Tesla growth story is clearly dead

And thats how you should compare. (But 4% isnt "clearly dead"). I see YoY is much used in here, as it looks better than QoQ...But:
Last year Tesla could not deliver enough cars, and cannot be compared to this quarter. Also, Tesla is priced as a growth company on Nasdaq (and then some), (and Tesla also says that themselves).