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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Actuals… just like the insurance numbers from China and reliable delivery numbers from Europe, and the production milestones from Tesla are actual. By the end of the quarter, there isn’t a huge amount of mystery left. Roughly +-5%. His estimate wasn’t particularly good at any point in the quarter. Ironically it was closest about 1 week prior then he ruined that too.
Almost 13 weeks in this quarter, and yes each week brings actual data (from some sources, not others) that can be used to further refine the forecast -- and still nobody had exact numbers. This is seriously exactly how forecasting works in any industry where I've seen forecasting used.


For reference, the IR analyst consensus being cited was emailed out by Martin three days ago lol (from Gary Black)

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And thats how you should compare. (But 4% isnt "clearly dead"). I see YoY is much used in here, as it looks better than QoQ...But:
Last year Tesla could not deliver enough cars, and cannot be compared to this quarter. Also, Tesla is priced as a growth company on Nasdaq (and then some), (and Tesla also says that themselves).
Yoy is used because Tesla is always production ramping throughout the year. The deliveries number only grows from here and by q1 2024, we should expect 520k or something and that number will be compared to 420k today.
 
This is exactly how forecasting works and how original estimates are derived and refined. You start off with some info, set of assumptions, you refine them as time goes on, and accuracy should increase as you approach the end of a reporting period. At the end you see how accurate you were, identify sources of inaccuracy, refine further, and continue.

I do very similar stuff professionally but on cost/schedule and manpower forecasting for projects, this IS how it works and Tesla does the same thing internally for their own decision-making around production and logistics. I guarantee Tesla is constantly adjusting things on the fly because they really have no idea what curveballs may be coming at the start of any given quarter.
Actuals… just like the insurance numbers from China and reliable delivery numbers from Europe, and the production milestones from Tesla are actual. By the end of the quarter, there isn’t a huge amount of mystery left. Roughly +-5%. His estimate wasn’t particularly good at any point in the quarter. Ironically it was closest about 1 week prior then he ruined that too.
I am not a fan or critic of Troy but Interestingly, if you average his 10 forecasts, the number comes in at 422,600 - indeed very close to actuals.
 
and lucky for everyone that they can just ignore Troy if they don't think it important. If a poster feels less info is more better...ignore away.
Good point, that is why listening to Gordo can be helpful. He gives you a inside look for whatever reason he belongs to TeslaQ. Then take that nonsense he spews to make sure, it is indeed nonsense. If he ever starts making sense, then take appropriate action.

Then go into your underground bunker...because hell just froze over.
 
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His estimate wasn’t particularly good at any point in the quarter.


His very first estimate at the start of the quarter- and his very last one at the end- were both roughly within -one percent- of the actual deliveries number.

7 of the 11 #s in between were within 1-2% of the actual delivery number.

And the average of all his estimates was almost exactly the delivery number.

Like I said, people will find ways to be mad at him regardless.
 
Rob and Brian did a very good job of estimating production, not surprising, because production is easier to estimate.

Deliveries are more or less a guess on how much inventory is increasing or decreasing once we know production.

For the build up of Model S/X inventory if the US inventory levels are high enough they can build for export. including building RHD versions.

What is most interesting now is the impact of price cuts, factory ramps and cost savings on margins. That is also in the 'hard to guess" category. But Q1 2023 and Q4 2022 form a good basis for comparison.

Estimating production from here on should be mostly a matter of tracking the Berlin and Austin ramps. Once we know the margins this quarter, that is a reasonable basis for predicting future margins assuming, no major macro impacts.
 
Yep, Reuters saw that there was quite a conversation growing about inaccurate consensus targets, the numbers being gamed by Wall Street, etc. and they didn't want to take the heat.

This raises the question about what TSLA does on Monday. You would think the market makers, hedgies, and such pirates would be trying for a morning dip to define the Q1 P&D report as a disappointment, and it may happen, especially with NASDAQ futures down at the moment. After all, TSLA is $17 over max pain at the moment. OTOH, that possible dip could be bought once it bottoms and you could see a nice rebound if the macros rebound as well. It's a game of steering expectations. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
 
Lol, I added that edit while you were posting!
Zombie Apocalypse is better!
Yeah but zombies would be driving Teslas cause they may not have brains but they're not TSLAQ stupid. So more future sales. So bring on the Zombie Apocalypse and keep those Teslas moving,
 
Isn't Chinese New Year a constant in Q1?
While Chinese New Year is always in Q1, Tesla factory shutdown for the Chinese New Year has not been a constant and is very likely to be the very first such extended shutdown for the CNY.

" most of the employees at the Shanghai Gigafactory will be on holiday from January 20-28 [2023], which will be one day longer than the statutory holiday before and after, allowing everyone to flexibly arrange their homecoming time. Some employees have spent the holidays in place for the past two years and have not been home for the New Year for several years."


Source: Drives Tesla Canada - Tesla China sets the record straight on the January shutdown