Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wtlloyd]

HODL til 2030 just in time for next pandemic, bank crash, war, next recession cycle, ai world domination…

Ya, but we'll be stinkin' rich and won't care. Much.

 

[GOVA]

Ugh. I thought TSLA was going to bounce off $187

It did bounce. Down.

 

[Chocochip]

Thanks for clarifying I was talking about QOQ.

However, I disagree that the drop has anything to do with electricity prices or interest rates. Those factors are not unique to the UK. I believe it is mainly a production/logistics issue getting the vehicles from China to the UK, along with some buyers waiting for the new model year license plates in April.

Sorry to disappoint, but no... there were plenty of cars available in March, and Tesla kept cutting prices in their inventory listings, with most Model 3 variants getting "showroom adjustments" of £4,000-£6,000. I actually stopped by my *local* delivery centre on March 31st and the lot was full (hundreds of cars, see photos), despite their inventory page showing only a handful of cars available at that location. Tesla has close to 20 delivery centres in the UK, and the last ship from Shanghai docked in Southampton on 19 March, plenty of time to get the cars delivered if there were customers willing to take delivery.

It's easy to claim that Tesla has "infinite demand", but the truth is, while Tesla's vehicles see a lot more demand than similarly-priced cars, things like high interest rates and cost of ownership (as well as the current lack of EV incentives) are significant in the decision-making process of a potential car buyer.

 

[phoggy123]

Sorry to disappoint, but no... there were plenty of cars available in March, and Tesla kept cutting prices in their inventory listings, with most Model 3 variants getting "showroom adjustments" of £4,000-£6,000. I actually stopped by my *local* delivery centre on March 31st and the lot was full (hundreds of cars, see photos), despite their inventory page showing only a handful of cars available at that location. Tesla has close to 20 delivery centres in the UK, and the last ship from Shanghai docked in Southampton on 19 March, plenty of time to get the cars delivered if there were customers willing to take delivery.

It's easy to claim that Tesla has "infinite demand", but the truth is, while Tesla's vehicles see a lot more demand than similarly-priced cars, things like high interest rates and cost of ownership (as well as the current lack of EV incentives) are significant in the decision-making process of a potential car buyer.
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With weather like this, it's a wonder people even bother going to Spain for vacation.

 

[Chocochip]

Q1 vs Q4 have no bearing on anything as car sales are typically lowest in Q1 and highest in Q4.

Which is why I looked at Tesla's sales as a percentage of:
1. total car sales, and
2. total BEV sales
These should eliminate the seasonality factor from the comparison (unless one believes that Tesla alone is disproportionately affected by it).

In both cases Tesla saw a drop in sales, both sequentially and YoY. In fact, as total sales went up from Q4-22 to Q1-23, Tesla's market share dropped by 51%. My post above discusses some factors that are likely to have led to this.

 

[Tim S]

Pardon, I had to add some white-space to read your very astute and well-reasoned comment. Thanks for that, and chin! In spite of the day, and over the long run, we're winning. And this is a fight we must have.

@joh01652 comments below:
========

Yes, these sorts of articles make me chuckle, too, because it just goes to show who is really in charge, and it's not the voting public. The world we live in today is hilarious for so many reasons, like:

1. Justice is a function of price—those who can afford to keep the best lawyers and accountants on retainer can freely game the law and distort the markets, elections, science, etc, while real moms and pops and kids commit suicide, go bankrupt, lose their jobs, their homes, wear silly masks, take experimental injections, all while watching their savings, pensions, kids’ college funds, etc, evaporate before their very eyes.
2. Organized financial crime is rewarded, while virtue, honesty, meritocracy, hard work and thrift gets its throat crushed, making a complete mockery of our political system, justice system, regulatory agencies, indeed the entire notion of rule of law. “Rules for thee, but not for me, the public be damned!” says Global Capital.
3. Shareholder democracy (as well as political democracy) is a total sham when the global financial apparatus can just fail-to-deliver shares in one long never-ending-game of musical chairs or “mistakenly” mark trades to make insane amounts of money in seconds; in other words, they can do whatever they damn well please. Which segues into…
4. Picking winners and losers in a rigged global marketplace: you’ve got to love how unelected, unaccountable Central Banksters/Transnational Financiers can manipulate credit and monetary policy that selects certain investments and investors over others; a game of picking winners and losers that Wall Street happily takes part in. The Fed gets to play both arsonist and firefighter in this game, while Wall Street leverages whatever monetary morphine the Fed throws its way to create a meritless, artificial economy. Covid, Ukraine and the “banking crisis” are just the latest episodes of jamming the democratic process while Transnational Finance forces economic transformation without representation; Central Banksters are empowered to do what elected officials cannot without facing the wrath of the voters. What a hoot, indeed, my stomach is aching I'm laughing so hard.
5. Corporate mainstream media. We all have to congratulate the multibillion dollar, multinational corporate mainstream media for their stellar work in mass mind control—a system of deception and deceit owned and operated by serial liars and con men whose wealthy handlers won’t allow real crimes to come to surface, like naked short selling, censorship of dissent, regulatory capture, bribing politicians and other unelected public servants/scientists. No, mainstream media teaches us to fear really really scary things, like EVs, Elon Musk, our neighbors, virus spreaders, science deniers, working class people, basically people who don’t fall in line with the official narratives spoon fed to them from CNBC, BBC, NPR, New York Times, etc.

I could go on and on, but this might be too much laughter for one morning, so I’ll stop.

#MONEYISNTEVERYTHINGITSTHEONLYTHING!

======

MODS, is there a way we can put @joh01652 thoughts into the "Posts of Merit" thread? Thanks, sorry to cause extra work.

Cheers to the Longs!

No post that includes the phrases "silly masks" and "experimental injections" should be a post of merit.

 

[Mengy]

I agree on all points and add, what I've been saying for months; no appreciable share price increase until CT is successfully ramping.

You could be right, but my hunch is the CT (like the Semi) won't help TSLA at all until the economy and macros improve. It will certainly help advertise for Tesla, as CT's start driving around the streets people won't be able to stop talking about it, and the deluge of YouTube and social media posts about the CT will have an enormous positive impact on Tesla demand. But I don't think WS will give a hoot about any of that as long as the market macros are tanked.

The company and the stock are often disconnected, and I think the CT launch will be one of those moments if the economy is still bad by then. TSLA should catch up in a massive way once the economy improves of course.

 

[AndrewZ]

Sorry to disappoint, but no... there were plenty of cars available in March, and Tesla kept cutting prices in their inventory listings, with most Model 3 variants getting "showroom adjustments" of £4,000-£6,000. I actually stopped by my *local* delivery centre on March 31st and the lot was full (hundreds of cars, see photos), despite their inventory page showing only a handful of cars available at that location. Tesla has close to 20 delivery centres in the UK, and the last ship from Shanghai docked in Southampton on 19 March, plenty of time to get the cars delivered if there were customers willing to take delivery.

It's easy to claim that Tesla has "infinite demand", but the truth is, while Tesla's vehicles see a lot more demand than similarly-priced cars, things like high interest rates and cost of ownership (as well as the current lack of EV incentives) are significant in the decision-making process of a potential car buyer.
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Yeah I think it's pretty clear this is why we were seeing huge records in smaller markets as excess vehicles were being shipped out of the big hubs to satisfy existing orders in those smaller markets rather than cut prices further in the UK, Germany, etc for Q1.

They probably have a team of people working to figure out what the best course of action is, what to do to realize maximum $$$. One can only imagine their spreadsheets.

 

[petit_bateau]

Sorry to disappoint, but no... there were plenty of cars available in March, and Tesla kept cutting prices in their inventory listings, with most Model 3 variants getting "showroom adjustments" of £4,000-£6,000. I actually stopped by my *local* delivery centre on March 31st and the lot was full (hundreds of cars, see photos), despite their inventory page showing only a handful of cars available at that location. Tesla has close to 20 delivery centres in the UK, and the last ship from Shanghai docked in Southampton on 19 March, plenty of time to get the cars delivered if there were customers willing to take delivery.

It's easy to claim that Tesla has "infinite demand", but the truth is, while Tesla's vehicles see a lot more demand than similarly-priced cars, things like high interest rates and cost of ownership (as well as the current lack of EV incentives) are significant in the decision-making process of a potential car buyer.
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Thank you @Chocochip .

Is it me, or are those predominantly model 3 ? (Being held back to get a premium in the new registration year)

Also it seemed to me that Tesla is having to put quite significant price reductions on the ex-lease / used vehicles, again predominantly the model 3.

This sets up the situation where the £43k+ new model 3 is competing against the used £30k model 3 with only 20-30k miles on the clock. I know because just before Christmas I looked in my local showroom and scanned the listings for the used ones. We have mentally planned a test drive in November

This year it is the model 3 feeling the pricing heat. Next year the model Y will as well.

Like it or not, margins will be under pressure. I'd like to hope that Tesla can continue to reduce costs (front castings, cell mfg, etc) to keep those margins protected, but I doubt it will be sufficient.

To an extent this will be ameliorated by entering new markets (Turkey, Thailand, etc) but we must also be aware that Tesla is quite a way down the creaming curve of markets as well. The first flush of salers in those markets at premium prices will soon burn off like morning dew.

 

[Chocochip]

Yeah I think it's pretty clear this is why we were seeing huge records in smaller markets as excess vehicles were being shipped out of the big hubs to satisfy existing orders in those smaller markets rather than cut prices further in the UK, Germany, etc for Q1.

They probably have a team of people working to figure out what the best course of action is, what to do to realize maximum $$$. One can only imagine their spreadsheets.

I think you might be right... they clearly had a lot of underserved European markets, and it makes sense to actually deliver cars to customers waiting for months than to cut prices further in big markets where the wait times are shrinking. I've read (on this forum, in UK-related threads) that Tesla will move some cars from the UK to the Republic of Ireland where people have been waiting on orders since last summer.

Long-term, however, Tesla needs to figure out a way to spur demand in some of the larger markets. It'd be interesting to know how COGS/unit compare between Berlin and Shanghai including transport, but clearly Berlin ramping brings those unit costs down.

 

[Chocochip]

Is it me, or are those predominantly model 3 ?

Yes. I wonder how much the Project Highland rumours have affected demand for it...

 

[Krugerrand]

That sounds a lot like a software bug.

 

[munkypuzel]

In the UK we still have very high priced Electricity which quite a few people have mentioned to me as a factor for delaying the move to BEV.... I think KWh prices have reduced on the continent? but not here.

 

[EVNow]

I know it sounds weird. But I've enough experience in banking software to know what I'm saying ...

 

[SOULPEDL]

HODL til 2030 just in time for next pandemic, bank crash, war, next recession cycle, ai world domination…

Too late, we'll be extinct by then.

 

[SOULPEDL]

No better time than the present. 25 more please.

 

[Drumheller]

Ya, but we'll be stinkin' rich and won't care. Much.

Or we will be encouraging everyone to buy the dip, take advantage of the sale, load up while the stock is disconnected, because once it gets over $200 it won't be looking back. Probably next quarter results!

 

[Fred42]

Yes. I wonder how much the Project Highland rumours have affected demand for it...

The percentage of the car buying public that knows what that means is probably nil.

 

[FSDtester#1]

I was about to throw out and old couch my dog peed on and found some spare change under the cushions. Just picked up 400 chairs @ $184.50.
Not gonna miss that couch. It smelled.

 

[Chocochip]

The percentage of the car buying public that knows what that means is probably nil.

I would assume that a large percentage of the people considering a £50k car purchase will do quite in-depth research (video reviews, side-by-side comparisons, owners' forums, etc.), and that rumour was fairly prominent on Twitter, YT, and even in some mainstream media stories over the past couple of months.