Offenders will also have their Custom Title changed to "Blithering Member" for three weeks
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Ok...who are you and what did you do with "funny cat video guy"?
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Roland Pircher doing us all a favor with this nice graph.
Inventory should be viewed in relation to production and deliveries.
Source
Inventory should be viewed in relation to production and deliveries.
Source
The figure is also not inventory. It's a guess at inventory for the information Tesla chooses to expose. Graphing that sort of number against hard data implies a precision that doesn't exist. But still worthwhile.
It also doesn't particularly reveal the critical metric of sales growth
It also doesn't particularly reveal the critical metric of sales growth
This is the mother of all 3 battery health threads:
Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health
i bought my model 3 in aug 2018. After the software upgrade I only got 316 miles when charged to 100%. Last night I got only 312 miles from 5% SOC to 100%. A 4% degradation within 10 months? Have others degraded similarly?teslamotorsclub.com
I've been in and out of that thread for both our 3 and Y, both of which have 10+% degradation with between 10,000 and 25,000 miles on them at the time (and not a lot of supercharging), and the consensus was "this is normal for the 2170 packs".
Surprised by that. My Model Y is a year old and 13,000 miles and I seem to have 1-2% degradation. Maybe I am calculating it wrong or is there a way to check via the car settings like you can with an iphone? I am just taking current range (229 miles), dividing by current battery percentage (70%) and then dividing that number by 330. I get less than 1%.
SunCatcher
Member
Or Blathering as the case may be. As my darling wife likes to say to me from time to time.
Interesting. If they dropped the X 6 seater below $80k before the end of the year while I still qualify for the $7500 to move them, I may finally pull the trigger on one.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Well said.
Let's take this further into the depths of reason, something clearly being avoided by the "inventory care bears."
Take a moment to consider the difference between:
- an OEM with increasing inventory in parallel with static or negative dealer growth and reduced production, and
- an OEM that is consistently growing the number of showrooms and service centers (delivery outlets) while also expanding production capacity and development for multiple product lines across multiple disciplines (auto, energy, software, AI).
Growing inventory for a legacy OEM is a death knell that portends a cloudy future because both sales and production are dropping as inventory increases.
Growing inventory for an expanding OEM with both product and sales strategies that are disrupting the industry is to be expected to remain on par with the growth of the production and delivery capability.
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Roland's charts are great, I encourage you all to follow him on Twitter. He's also active here on TMC in the "Europe Registrations" thread, he goes as Piloly.
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All automakers have excess capacity. The interesting question is whether Tesla is included.
Is there a relative pause in EV growth after the covid buying frenzy? I think we will know later in the year.
GhostSkater
Member
Main issue with degradation is a lot of people using apps to calculate it
Apps only show what the car exposes, which is the EPA range at a given state of charge, and this is one of the most inaccurate ways of measuring it, if the BMS is a bit uncalibrated, which is the case with the vast majority of drivers due to repeating usage pattern (ie charge everyday to 80% and end the day at 30% and repeat), that rated number has a huge error bar
The BMS will always go on the less energy available side than it really is to avoid getting people stranded, so the longest you go maintaining a regular usage pattern that doesn't fully charge and fully discharge the pack, the more error it will accumulate
And despite a lot of people repeating the above again and again, every week there is people posting Tessie or similar apps screenshots asking why my battery has so much degradation
Best way to do currently is either ScanMyTesla plugged into the car CAN network and driving from full charge to until the car stops moving, and doing that at low ish speeds so you have less losses everywhere, with that you can precisely see how much energy you get out of the battery with more precision than simply looking at the trip card
The is also the health test on the service menu that everyone can do, but from all I've seen so far that might encompass more than just energy stored vs new. It's a state of health test, not degradation
Both are useful, but you can't compare one to another
TLDR: Model 3/Y degradation is likely fine, better than S/X or on par, but with more cars on the road, you have many more users measuring degradation completely wrong and posting about, giving an impression that they are worse on that regard
Apps only show what the car exposes, which is the EPA range at a given state of charge, and this is one of the most inaccurate ways of measuring it, if the BMS is a bit uncalibrated, which is the case with the vast majority of drivers due to repeating usage pattern (ie charge everyday to 80% and end the day at 30% and repeat), that rated number has a huge error bar
The BMS will always go on the less energy available side than it really is to avoid getting people stranded, so the longest you go maintaining a regular usage pattern that doesn't fully charge and fully discharge the pack, the more error it will accumulate
And despite a lot of people repeating the above again and again, every week there is people posting Tessie or similar apps screenshots asking why my battery has so much degradation
Best way to do currently is either ScanMyTesla plugged into the car CAN network and driving from full charge to until the car stops moving, and doing that at low ish speeds so you have less losses everywhere, with that you can precisely see how much energy you get out of the battery with more precision than simply looking at the trip card
The is also the health test on the service menu that everyone can do, but from all I've seen so far that might encompass more than just energy stored vs new. It's a state of health test, not degradation
Both are useful, but you can't compare one to another
TLDR: Model 3/Y degradation is likely fine, better than S/X or on par, but with more cars on the road, you have many more users measuring degradation completely wrong and posting about, giving an impression that they are worse on that regard
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Auke Hoekstra’s take on the IEA EV outlook
A bit more bullish one might say
A bit more bullish one might say
Krugerrand
Meow
And the headline of the day:
Musk bets the house of Tesla on low prices and razor thin margins
Musk bets the house of Tesla on low prices and razor thin margins
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
What would represent a pause for any automotive company?
Perhaps an indicator would be laying off workers, closing production facilities, throttling production lines, canceling existing vehicle models from the lineup, renting significant space to store excess inventory (stadium parking lots and the like).
Is Tesla doing any of those things?
Are any of the legacy OEMs doing those things?
Is taking note of this differentiation between these factors critical to evaluating the hypothesis?
Sure, there will be market ups and downs like Covid that affect all players, but, ignoring these other factors while singing a care bear lullaby falls short of a comprehensive evaluation to determine what is different about Tesla in this regard. Would you not agree?
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This is what I was assuming is going on with people complaining about large "degradation". I went on a long road trip a few weeks ago and charged my car to 100% before leaving. Maybe this helped recalibrate the BMS estimate resulting in me only seeing 1% "degradation".
Isn't your range dependent on your car's miles/kw? So if you are driving fast all the time, won't you will show less range than someone who is driving slowly?
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