Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

But it must not be using Panasonic 2170 cells, as it only qualifies for a $3,750 tax credit and the range is listed as 325+, so it doesn't have an official EPA rating yet:

So, post tax credit

LR = 47,240 - 3,750 = 43,490
P = 53,240 - 7,400 = 45,840

A difference of only ~2k.

 

[GhostSkater]

This probably is the CATL M3P cell that we've seen being talked about many times

LFMP - LFP + Manganese

Also charging time is different, I don't remember what was before but wasn't it, if you go to the Canadian site which that model isn't available and convert, it is 176 miles is 15 minutes

So this new LR charges slower than the previous LR but faster than the Performance, which makes sense for a smaller pack. All of this is range added per unit of time, not absolute charging speed

Also this new version is listed as 250kW charging

This is equivalent to 10% to 55% in 15 minutes and 132 kW average power during that time

I wonder what is the move here, freeing more cells to Model Y likely, since 4680 ramp is going slower than expected, and this new pack on Model Y would be a sub 300 miles of range, this allows for more Model Y production while still having a good range on Model 3 LR

Probably will increase margins also since this new M3P cell was reported around the same cost per kWh as the current LFP

 

[Knightshade]

So, post tax credit

LR = 47,240 - 3,750 = 43,490
P = 53,240 - 7,400 = 45,840

A difference of only ~2k.

Interestingly the 0-60 hasn't changed... the RWD got slower when they switched to LFP. I wonder if the 2k acceleration boost option will be available for this if it's really LFP?

Though given the net of credit difference I'm not entirely sure why anybody'd be buying the thing other than they REALLY don't want to take the trouble to sell the 20s and buy their own 18s I guess? Or, actually one other reason I could see-- STATE rebates that have a price cuttoff at 50k so the LR qualifies and the P does not.

 

[Ogre]

Interesting the performance gets the full tax credit, but the LR only gets half - I guess they have shoehorned LFP into the LR??? Has less range than the Model Y LR, so adds up to an LFP solution.

This is exactly what I was thinking. Pretty interesting. Very very curious. Might explain the long delay.

 

[Electroman]

It's the Batteries, Stupid!

TMC is a room full of PhDs That was direct quote from Trevor Milton: https://twitter.com/beego20/status/1305188088688324610

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Singuy]

Interestingly the 0-60 hasn't changed... the RWD got slower when they switched to LFP. I wonder if the 2k acceleration boost option will be available for this if it's really LFP?

Though given the net of credit difference I'm not entirely sure why anybody'd be buying the thing other than they REALLY don't want to take the trouble to sell the 20s and buy their own 18s I guess? Or, actually one other reason I could see-- STATE rebates that have a price cuttoff at 50k so the LR qualifies and the P does not.

First you still have to fork over 6k+tax, which means a more hefty monthly payment. Some people in warmer weather could also use LFP's ability to charge to 100% without damaging the battery. If the range is similar to the performance, I can see myself saving the money even if it's ~3k after tax rebates since I think a 4 second car is PLENTY fast.

Hoping that LFP is MUCH cheaper to produce since this is essentially another pretty substantial price cut as it dilutes the mix of the cars if it fails to generate any additional orders than before.

 

[Captkerosene]

I do think about death every day. It is fine.

Assuming they ask me - what is your biggest life regret - when crossing the bridge. I would say “nothing”. I did drive and supported Tesla.

Just imagine being one of those who say - I never got it. I drive poison cars. That has been my life. Just hate.

Finally, I found someone more hyperbolistic than me.

 

[Fred42]

You can now order the Model 3 LR in the US again:

View attachment 934032

But it must not be using Panasonic 2170 cells, as it only qualifies for a $3,750 tax credit and the range is listed as 325+, so it doesn't have an official EPA rating yet:
View attachment 934033

A 325 mile car that I can charge to 100% every night sounds good to me, even with giving up half of the tax credit. Assuming it's LFMP or LFP.

 

[Fred42]

So, post tax credit

LR = 47,240 - 3,750 = 43,490
P = 53,240 - 7,400 = 45,840

A difference of only ~2k.

Hmm, they implemented this new trim line despite the suspected imminence of the Highland version. I guess they want to move as much metal as they can in the meantime, and they were ready with this.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Superchargers FTW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653602765837565953

50K stalls globally coming soon I guess

 

[aubreymcfato]

If you own a 3-10 year old car that is reliable, it is quite easy to put off a purchase for 1-3 more years while the market settles a bit. The likelihood there will be significantly better deals on EVs in 2-3 years is nearly 100%. The high interest rates we're seeing at the moment make it even more likely people will put off a purchase for a year or two.

I strongly suspect there are a lot of people hanging onto their ICE car for a couple more years while they get ready for their EV purchases.

I was thinking the used ICE market would crash, but starting to think they will have a long tail as new car sales fall off a cliff and economies of scale invert on cars like the Corolla. My mechanic buddy will have plenty to keep him busy for another 10 years before he retires.

I addition to this, we also had a shift in the market towards premium and bigger models, and a reduction of incentives.
When I bought my Renault Zoe, in Italy, in 2020, I had almost **12k** discount between several national incentives and a discount from the dealer. Price tag was around 25k.

Right now, a Zoe starts at 33.5k, and incentives are very few.
There are no more affordable EVs: best bang for your buck is a M3, but it's still 40k.

 

[MartinAustin]

The LR AWD 3 used to have 353 miles of range. 90% of that is 317. 325 would appear to offer something compelling. I wonder what will become of Acceleration Boost?
Example:

New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Find new and used Tesla cars. Every new Tesla has a variety of configuration options and all pre-owned Tesla vehicles have passed the highest inspection standards.

www.tesla.com

Additional thought: I wonder if Highland will be what customers get if they order this

 

[Ogre]

I addition to this, we also had a shift in the market towards premium and bigger models, and a reduction of incentives.
When I bought my Renault Zoe, in Italy, in 2020, I had almost **12k** discount between several national incentives and a discount from the dealer. Price tag was around 25k.

Right now, a Zoe starts at 33.5k, and incentives are very few.
There are no more affordable EVs: best bang for your buck is a M3, but it's still 40k.

Absolutely.

Legacy auto has been facing a lot of parts shortages lately so with the smaller number of cars going out the door, they’ve been trying to make up for lower volume by focusing on the more profitable parts of the market. So long as the economy was doing well and interest rates super low, it worked. Now it’s crushing them.

Jeep is getting trashed. Others as well, an autopocalypse is coming.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653408769563295746

 

[Ogre]

The LR AWD 3 used to have 353 miles of range. 90% of that is 317. 325 would appear to offer something compelling. I wonder what will become of Acceleration Boost?
Example:

New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Find new and used Tesla cars. Every new Tesla has a variety of configuration options and all pre-owned Tesla vehicles have passed the highest inspection standards.

www.tesla.com

Additional thought: I wonder if Highland will be what customers get if they order this

I’m wondering if these new cars will have the same advantages the SR ones do. Tesla says it’s ok to charge the M3SR to 100% all the time. If these are similarly capable of 100% charging all the time, daily range would be roughly the same as the older LRs. Road trips would be a little less convenient still, but most wouldn’t notice the difference.

 

[AndrewZ]

Really interesting dynamics going on with this angle in reintroducing the 3 LR orders, just now noticing the 3 LR orders were closed at peak pricing in the middle of last year when the Y LR was $8k more expensive. Now that price difference gap has closed substantially and moreso when considering the difference in tax credits, the 3 and Y are almost the same dang price.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Could the LR3 be using structural pack with made in Japan 4680’s? Panasonic’s new factory was supposed to be up and running soon. Could explain the $3750 tax credit, weight and range.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Could the LR3 be using structural pack with made in Japan 4680’s? Panasonic’s new factory was supposed to be up and running soon. Could explain the $3750 tax credit, weight and range.

Unlikely. Battery cells made in Japan are now eligible for the full* IRA consumer tax credit, so that type of pack in a Fremont Model 3 would qualify for $7,500 (not just $3,750)

First Squawk on Twitter: "US TREASURY SAYS NEW STRICTER EV TAX CREDIT RULES WILL TAKE EFFECT APRIL 18 || TREASURY SAYS JAPAN WILL BE CONSIDERED A US FREE TRADE AGREEMENT PARTNER FOR PURPOSES OF CRITICAL MINERAL REQUIREMENTS" / Twitter (Mar 31, 2023)​

More Panasonic/Japan bty background from Oct 2021 by @CorneliusXX: #292,474

Cheers!

*Note that because of Japan's new trade status wrt IRA minerals requirement, a Model X LR priced at $79,990 would become eligible as an SUV fir the full $7,500 IRA U.S. tax credit. If the IRA remains in force for several years, I'd expect Tesla to make this move as soon as their production economics allow it.

#PREDICT

 

[CorneliusXX]

This probably is the CATL M3P cell that we've seen being talked about many times

LFMP - LFP + Manganese

Also charging time is different, I don't remember what was before but wasn't it, if you go to the Canadian site which that model isn't available and convert, it is 176 miles is 15 minutes

So this new LR charges slower than the previous LR but faster than the Performance, which makes sense for a smaller pack. All of this is range added per unit of time, not absolute charging speed

Also this new version is listed as 250kW charging

This is equivalent to 10% to 55% in 15 minutes and 132 kW average power during that time

I wonder what is the move here, freeing more cells to Model Y likely, since 4680 ramp is going slower than expected, and this new pack on Model Y would be a sub 300 miles of range, this allows for more Model Y production while still having a good range on Model 3 LR

Probably will increase margins also since this new M3P cell was reported around the same cost per kWh as the current LFP

View attachment 934034

I believe the battery manufacturing tax credit is only received if the vehicle is sold in the USA. So it would make sense for GigaShanghai vehicles to be sold in Canada to free up cells for US vehicles

 

[transpondster]

could be LG china 2170 cells assembled in Shanghai or Nevada

 

[Christine69420]

Looking at the car registration stats for Norway in April I find two interesting items:

Tesla Model Y is the best selling car model - not bad for the first month in a quarter. The delivery wave is flattening - helped by Giga Berlin.

And the electric van market is taking off - 36.7% of the vans sold are electric with the VW ID Buzz in the top spot.

Anyway - here is the list of the best sellers in April:

1. Tesla Model Y: 920

2. Volkswagen ID.4 (inkl. ID.4 GTX): 602

3. Volvo XC40: 453

4. Skoda Enyaq: 394

5. Volkswagen ID.3: 391

6. Audi Q4 e-tron: 322

7. Nissan Leaf: 315

8. BMW iX1: 281

9. Nissan Ariya: 280

10. Ford Mustang Mach-E: 273