Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Anyone believe this ?

View attachment 935817
View attachment 935818

Yes?

They produced over 2300 cars in Q1... so >10k as a goal for all of 2023 seems... entirely reasonable? That's only 2567 per quarter for the next 3, barely a 10% increase.

Embarrassingly low compared to their PREVIOUS goals for 2023 of course.

 

[lafrisbee]

The first Cybertruck add-on has appeared!

View attachment 935810

There ya go. I imagined a stainless steel camper shell with that profile when I placed an order for a cyber(nota)truck. Cybervangon.
(and I still won't give up hope on a midgate. And another thing, ALL people tell me that the tonneau cover will not slide forward above the passengers' heads when not over the bed. I saw too much crap at the top of the windshield in the last big Cyber(nota)truck true walkaround video that was not explained.)

 

[Drumheller]

OT


If you're a Munro fan and in the Phoenix area, there is a meetup tonight at 6pm at State 48 brewery in Gilbert. Reservation under Munro Group

 

[jerry33]

The first Cybertruck add-on has appeared!

View attachment 935810

I'm not convinced that I want a commentator as an option.

 

[loquitur]

Rookie move, just use your phone app to set it back to 100% charging and finish your meal

Yes, charging to 100% at a Supercharger is like Zeno's paradox.

 

[Gigapress]

If we don't though- isn't the whole point that one autonomous robotaxi replaces MULTIPLE normal manually driven, personally owned, vehicles? (IIRC Elon said 1 RT replaces 5 cars worth of normal weekly usage, hourly speaking)

Meaning you'd have LOWER total #s of cars sold going forward, by a reasonably significant margin- not >2x record highs.

And if we assume EVs need replacement less often then as the fleet transitions to them you'll have lower annual sales still since replacement rate drops.

I agree you could see developing nations getting richer offsetting SOME of that, but one would expect they'd also have RTs available too.

Now, if you do ignore autonomy entirely you've only got the declining replacement rate from EVs lasting longer slowing you down-- so I suppose developing nations getting richer might get you above record annual vehicle sales worldwide- but the chart suggesting 3x record highs by 2040 still seems... highly optimistic...there.

If autonomous driving works and EVs also deliver a lower total cost per km, we will almost certainly see a major increase in total distance driven per year by the global vehicle fleet. It is an open question whether this would outweigh the EV longevity factor and the higher autonomous vehicle usage factor.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yes?

They produced over 2300 cars in Q1... so >10k as a goal for all of 2023 seems... entirely reasonable? That's only 2567 per quarter for the next 3, barely a 10% increase.

Embarrassingly low compared to their PREVIOUS goals for 2023 of course.

Im gonna go with NO, nothing this guy has said about production numbers has ever come to fruition so far. 10k is def low but i can already foresee a "Due to blah, blah, we were unable to meet our goals again, but 2024 will be a different story"

 

[Cosmacelf]

Abbott and his cronies can suck it. All hot air and then backs the fossil fuel industry plus other negative things.

Texas is being very smart. They are leaders in fossil fuels, and aim to also be leaders in renewables, so as the former dies off, they’ll have a ready replacement industry to take over. Isn’t Texas is the state leader for renewable generation already?

 

[ShareLofty]

I don’t get the hate for Lucid. We should be rooting for them if you believe in the mission

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I don’t get the hate for Lucid. We should be rooting for them if you believe in the mission

I do not hate Lucid, i just think they were way over their heads in believing all the 'fluff' that the smooth talking person with the English accent was selling them and their 'investors'

 

[Thekiwi]

I don’t get the hate for Lucid. We should be rooting for them if you believe in the mission

Normally I would agree - but anything majority owned by the Saudi government deserves some level of scorn at a minimum

 

[heltok]

I don’t get the hate for Lucid. We should be rooting for them if you believe in the mission

Yeah, they are working hard to help electrification. I had a friend who worked for them for a while, very talented guy. But I think they had the wrong strategy and unfortunately it's really hard to do what Tesla did and with Tesla as competition it's even harder. Doubt their effort will have any major effect on electrification and likely the will use a lot more resources before they go bankrupt than their electrification will save. But we live in a capitalist society and people should be allowed to use their money however they see fit and if the saudis want to pay billions to own a large stake in a car company they should be allowed to... Owning soccer teams is so mainstream nowadays, owning a car company is higher status!

 

[Thekiwi]

So when this is operational in 2025, Elon says it will produce enough lithium for ~1 million EVs annually.

So question hopefully others here can answer: why build just one of these now? Why not 3 or 5 given the amount of vehicles & energy storage Tesla plans on building in North America in 2025/2026?

Do they want to see how this first facility build goes (due to finish in 2024) before replicating it? That would mean perhaps any more of these facilities would be online sometime in 2026.

Or does Tesla want to see what other states will stump up for getting facilities in their states with some tax breaks/subsidies?

Both of the above reasons? Something else?

 

[MikeC]

Anyone believe this ?

View attachment 935817
View attachment 935818

“Tesla missed estimates”

Vs.

“Analysts expected lower losses from Lucid but it wasn’t immediately clear whether reported results were comparable to those estimates”

Maybe it wasn’t immediately clear because they were too busy watching Lucid commercials during commercial breaks:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655657544340353024

 

[Singuy]

I don’t get the hate for Lucid. We should be rooting for them if you believe in the mission

The hate comes from their CEO who pointed at Tesla and criticized how they are the only ones who goes through production hell. Their investor slide deck singled out Tesla and does not consider it a luxury brand. The CEO also continuously trout how he will under promise and over deliver, poking fun of Musk for over promising and under delivering.

So yeah the animosity comes from that company's culture of "oh we are so much better than those brutes at Tesla"(got to say this with a British accent for the quote to be read correctly). Now they are falling harder on their faces than anyone anticipated, the tesla community does not hold back on the "I told you so".

As for Rivian, there are no animosity toward them besides people warning that their stock is trash during the crazy run ups.

 

[ggies07]

Update on the rack:

 

[insaneoctane]

More like play the game until you grow large enough and most importantly, employee enough of the workforce to have enough lobbying power.

Tesla well on its way to being one of the top employers of the state of Texas.

It seems to me as Tesla's TX presence continues to increase, the law that limits/prevents Tesla from delivering vehicles to the consumer gets more and more ironic.

 

[Knightshade]

It seems to me as Tesla's TX presence continues to increase, the law that limits/prevents Tesla from delivering vehicles to the consumer gets more and more ironic.

Doesn't help that they only meet for like 4.5 months every 2 years-- this session ends May 29th, then it'll be Jan 2025 before the next official session.

Actually was anything even proposed about it this session? Poking around online real quick I see references to a bill that didn't get passed in 2021, but not even any references to one being proposed this time around.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Talk about desperation...

Lucid Enrages Tesla Fans With Backdoor Promotional Strategy: 'Seriously So Desperate' - Lucid Gr (NASDAQ:LCID), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), General Motors (NYSE:GM)

www.benzinga.com

I haven't heard this theory yet... how about Lucid was trying to get a Tesla owner on camera saying (or expressing) something cool about Lucid during a test ride. That wasn't Lucid Sales, it was Marketing out fishing for their next commercial ad.

 

[MC3OZ]

So when this is operational in 2025, Elon says it will produce enough lithium for ~1 million EVs annually.

So question hopefully others here can answer: why build just one of these now? Why not 3 or 5 given the amount of vehicles & energy storage Tesla plans on building in North America in 2025/2026?

Do they want to see how this first facility build goes (due to finish in 2024) before replicating it? That would mean perhaps any more of these facilities would be online sometime in 2026.

Or does Tesla want to see what other states will stump up for getting facilities in their states with some tax breaks/subsidies?

Both of the above reasons? Something else?

View attachment 935850

The additional factors are:-

• The ability to source Lithium ore/batteries to refine,
• The ramp of battery production facilities.
• Existing Lithium supply contracts and prices.

If they can build this factory in 2 years, they can if needed build the next one even faster with design improvements and lessons learned.
,
Another consideration is getting any kinks out of their new refining process, it is best to do that before building the next factory.

Tesla has said that they prefer others to do the Lithium refining, and that they are only doing because they have to. I'm not sure that I fully believe that.