Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TrendTrader007]

Not financial advice:
Added significantly to my December 2025 $390 calls
Holding TSLA common stock
TSLL which pays me $0.17 dividend per share per year
Very happy with my portfolio which is anywhere between 100 to 160% long TSLA

 

[TrendTrader007]

Zero desire to trade any of my positions
Long term buy and hold
I expect to be in Tesla stock for another 20 to 40 years or even longer

Again, not financial advice

 

[navguy12]

The ads will have to be off the wall…

Random things like (in no particular order, just how they are popping in my head):

The rescue chopper approach to a mangled mess at the base of a 250+ foot cliff followed by the surviving occupants (not the driver who AFAIK is tied up in the criminal justice system) enjoying an ice cream cone;

The life of one litre of gasoline, from source to smog…followed by the life of a batch of lithium, from source to recycling to become new again…

My wife's Kona EV driving to the dealership to get a software update…followed by a message on my phone saying I have another software update, would I like to install it now or in the middle of the night tonight…

IDK, nuanced stuff like that.

More random thoughts while I was on my morning 12 km walk:

Have a picture of a TM3 & a TMY (both "standard range" or whatever the LFP versions are called) parked next to each other, together, on the right side of the shot.

Have a modern smartphone, on a suitable stand, alone on the left side of the shot.

Q: "What contains more cobalt, the phone on the left or the two Teslas on the right?"

A: "Trick question. The Teslas do not contain any cobalt".

 

[TrendTrader007]

I’ve been in Tesla stock since 2014 so it’s getting close to 10 years by 2024 and it has already been very good to me. I can only imagine what another 20 to 40 or 50 years in this stock will bring me.
So very exciting. Greatest investment opportunity of a lifetime.

Not financial advice.

 

[Thumper]

I have been under the impression that general aviation has used 48v for a long time. Is that wrong?

 

[JRP3]

Not sure why Mods moved my detailed post of yesterday from this thread to Off Topics Galore, #2,263 .
Simply stated, TSLA does not equal Tesla. TSLA = Tesla + macro.
Understanding the downward pressure on TSLA the last two years can be specifically attributed to much higher inflation and much higher interest rates. Tesla is still hitting it out of the park. Those that don't understand this are looking for escape goats and Elon is an easy target.

That's just overly simplistic, many factors lead to the decline.

 

[wws]

I have been under the impression that general aviation has used 48v for a long time. Is that wrong?

28V - for decades now.

 

[2daMoon]

Title below in the style of Fractured Fairy Tales (Rocky and Bullwinkle Show)

Have Superchargers Met Their Match
or
Is This Just Another Shell Game

Brian interviews a rep for a Shell Oil subsidiary about their plans to provide charging stations on lampposts. A reasonable idea that is potentially good for EVs in the long run, and, for Shell as well. Hoping to see them continue to divest away from their primary profit center.

Anything that makes EV ownership easier is good for Tesla.

...and no, I don't actually consider this a threat to the Supercharger network

 

[TrendTrader007]

And this is entirely my personal opinion and I could be totally wrong, but in 10, 20, 30,40 or 50 years TSLA Long Term buy and holders could be magnitudes of wealth out performers compared to Berkshire Hathaway, long-term buying holders since its inception
Tesla will probably far outperform Berkshire Hathaway in its entire existence by orders of magnitude
All right, I’ll shut up and go back to my day job

 

[scaesare]

In a sad irony, the upstanding, queue respecting Scandinavian @KarenRei was denied opportunity to ask a question because of rude American line cutters.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1658876760870486030

Where was the nationality of any line-cutters mentioned?

 

[MP3Mike]

A: "Trick question. The Teslas do not contain any cobalt".

But, that probably isn't accurate. I'm pretty sure that the Lithium 16v low voltage battery contains cobalt. (As far as I know it isn't LFP.)

 

[jerry33]

Not sure why Mods moved my detailed post of yesterday from this thread to Off Topics Galore, #2,263 .
Simply stated, TSLA does not equal Tesla. TSLA = Tesla + macro.
Understanding the downward pressure on TSLA the last two years can be specifically attributed to much higher inflation and much higher interest rates. Tesla is still hitting it out of the park. Those that don't understand this are looking for escape goats and Elon is an easy target.

Almost. TSLA = Tesla + macros - manipulation

 

[GhostSkater]

But, that probably isn't accurate. I'm pretty sure that the Lithium 16v low voltage battery contains cobalt. (As far as I know it isn't LFP.)

That is true

And also Elon saying smartphones contain 100% Cobalt is pretty misleading and he should be community noted (lol), I found that line pretty weird coming from him

There is no 100% Cobalt battery so I don't know what he was thinking, even if you ignore all the non active components and focus just on cathode, anode and electrolytes it's really far from 100 % Cobalt

Both NMC and NCA ( it's in the name ffs Nickel Manganese Cobalt and Nickel Cobalt Aluminum) ,18650s, 2170s, and 4680s, contains way more cobalt than just "a little bit to stabilize"

A Tesla pack (non LFP) contains orders of magnitude more Cobalt than any smartphone battery for now

 

[Mengy]

And this is entirely my personal opinion and I could be totally wrong, but in 10, 20, 30,40 or 50 years TSLA Long Term buy and holders could be magnitudes of wealth out performers compared to Berkshire Hathaway, long-term buying holders since its inception
Tesla will probably far outperform Berkshire Hathaway in its entire existence by orders of magnitude

I doubt that will happen (TSLA outperforming BRK by orders of magnitude) because Berkshire will likely acquire large amounts of TSLA when the stock really starts taking off. That will only happen if the TSLA PE continues to follow its trend of falling lower, which I think it will (on average) from here on out.

Note that TSLA can continue to rise as it's PE falls due to increasing revenues and profits. My hunch is TSLA is somewhere around $1200/share by 2030 with a PE of about 20, and Berkshire will probably own it by then because both Robotaxis and Bots will likely be growing revenue sources, and I don't think Berkshire will want to miss that opportunity.

Thus, I think Berkshire will grow with TSLA. Eventually. Probably. Maybe.

 

[bkp_duke]

But, that probably isn't accurate. I'm pretty sure that the Lithium 16v low voltage battery contains cobalt. (As far as I know it isn't LFP.)

Elon's dealing with this issue was a master-class for anyone in management. "OK, we'll look into this. Better yet, how about we place a webcam on the mine and let everyone just see for themselves if there is any child labor."

I'm sure there will be splitting of hairs on the implementation, but it basically and immediately negated the base point of the argument, leaving the "other side" twiddling their thumbs.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

There is no 100% Cobalt battery so I don't know what he was thinking, even if you ignore all the non active components and focus just on cathode, anode and electrolytes it's really far from 100 % Cobalt

I think he meant that 100% of cell phone batteries contain cobalt

 

[keydiver]

And also Elon saying smartphones contain 100% Cobalt is pretty misleading and he should be community noted (lol), I found that line pretty weird coming from him

I took it as "100% of cellphone batteries contain cobalt", which is undoubtedly true.

 

[MP3Mike]

A Tesla pack (non LFP) contains orders of magnitude more Cobalt than any smartphone battery for now

Yep, I think JB Strauble said it would take recycling less than 200 iPhone batteries to get the cobalt needed for one long range Model 3/Y.

Which checks out: Tesla co-founder has a plan to become king of EV battery materials—in the U.S.

It would take 6,147 recycled iPhone batteries to provide enough lithium for a Tesla Model Y but just 166 iPhones to provide enough cobalt, according to BNEF calculations.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Elon has spoken several times regarding the value of FSD and robotaxis to the future value of TSLA. This includes the predicted 5x utility if the car is self driving and out earning money. One unknown I would like to understand better is how we expect the liability to be managed and is the liability greater or less overall in cost. This is particularly relevant as liability will shift to Tesla in some form. Consider two scenarios:

1. Current situation where human driver is at fault and severely injures passenger in his car and in another car. His family member riding in the car probably does not sue the driver but insurance helps with medical bills. Family in other car will sue and there is individual insurance plan for that. Driver is happy he was driving a Tesla.
2. Self driving car causes same wreck with same injuries. Overall risk of this wreck occurring is less but now everyone is suing. There are insurance settlements and big lawsuits against one of the largest richest companies in the world (Tesla). The individual driver is no longer at fault and he is suing Tesla for making an unsafe product. His injured family member is suing Tesla for significantly more than the medical bills. Class action lawsuits crop up and lawyers specialize in suing Tesla for routine car wrecks. It is easy to imagine that any benefit in risk reduction does not save money overall if each wreck is more expensive. How should we design insurance products (and regulation) in this case?

THIS! THIS! THIS! So eloquently stated. Don't worry about Elon's tweets crashing the stock. It the above. Substitute the ambulance chasing lawyers standing on top a rig, instead standing on top of a Model 3 or Y in their commercials. THIS!

Legislation is the cure for above and looking at the present political climate do you think its going to happen?

 

[FreqFlyer]

In this case Tesla is probably insuring the Robotaxi and will only offer the service where they can get or provide insurance cover.

The criteria for a Robotaxi is "safer than a human" and in some cases FSD software might be "considerably safer than a human" before it gets regulatory approval, and any accident might cause a temporary suspension of the FSD service.

In any court case "safer than a human" will be part of Tesla's legal defence, as will all of the circumstances surrounding the accident, including what Tesla has done to prevent a reoccurrence.

In addition Tesla cars have good crash safety and in most circumstances FSD can predict an accident will often slow down, and perhaps pre-deploy airbags.

No one is saying accidents will not occur, nothing in life is risk free. FSD only makes financial sense when the rate of accidents is very low, and serious injury or death from an accident is an extremely rare event.

IMO what most of the debate is missing is that the average human driver is average, even the best human drivers sometimes make mistakes, and the worst human drivers are no better than "Russian Roulette". An additional factor is different human drivers make different decisions in the same situation, they can do sudden things, that are hard to predict in advance, and that can happen so rarely that it happens when you least expect it.

As well as being safer, FSD needs to be predictable, and that includes correct use of the indicators at all times. Sometimes humans signal with the indicator then change their mind.

No, what is missing from the debate is a crazy California Jury award setting precedent. FSD legislation with some TORT reform thrown would make "Robotaxis" a reality and a safer place.