Yes, you are correct for 2022, Ford was #2 and GM was #3. But, it appears they are cherry picking 1Q 2023 data, when Ford shut down the F150 Lightning plant, and some other production holdups.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
That was still an impressive attempt.
Krugerrand
Meow
And almost. They sure gave it a good dumping in the final minutes.
MartinAustin
Active Member
OK... +4.7% the following day I'll take it
Krugerrand
Meow
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Have you guys considered simpler alternatives to conspiracy theories? Like traders closing positions…
If MMs don’t hedge they will get wiped out by such events. MMS always delta hedge. They couldn’t care less whether the SP finishes at max pain or min pain.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
But....but....but....liquidity
Krugerrand
Meow
I have considered there might be a software bug that hasn’t been fixed in a decade. Like the one that allows a single ticker to represent 50%+ of total market options - because that seems like it should be able to happen, huh?
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I've considered it about as much as the idea that the media just wants to be journalists providing me the facts. Everyone is welcome to their own opinion.
When the Bolt is discontinued at the end of this year, then Ford will jump solidly above GM.
Hope so. Their Mach-E sales slowed down to a crawl either due to the MY price cuts or the winter break charging fiasco. Either way they need to generate more sales as margins go more and more negative.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
This Tesla / Ford announcement is going to sell a lot of Fords IMO
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Strong run up until about 1pm then selling/profit taking the rest of the afternoon, plus the push to keep it down. I'm sure some day traders made some money today.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yup, and general uncertainty about the debt crisis and other world events. Short term traders had good reasons to take some profits for the week.
Yeah, At the beginning of 2023, it was a foregone conclusion that Ford would be #2. But so far, Mach E sales have been pretty bad and Lightening sales (whether you chose to say it's because of production or demand) have been quite a disappointment for Ford.
Mach E sales have been struggling not just in the US, but around the world, because of the price war Tesla initiated. Ford losing the full EV credit while Tesla enjoys the full EV credit is only going to make the situation worse going forward. Ford essentially needs Model Y demand to increase so that Tesla raises prices enough to where Ford can be at price parity for the same features/range/etc.. Right now they're simply not.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Even though F got a bigger increase today, TSLA created 10x more wealth....
F +6.24%. $48.4B (MC) x 0.0624 = +$3.0B
TSLA +4.72% $612.3B (MC) x 0.0472 = +$28.9B
Lazy me used final MC, so slightly off, but good enough to make my point!
F +6.24%. $48.4B (MC) x 0.0624 = +$3.0B
TSLA +4.72% $612.3B (MC) x 0.0472 = +$28.9B
Lazy me used final MC, so slightly off, but good enough to make my point!
It's kind of scary to see sales slumping because this is that point shorts were waiting for...the peak of a new model follow by massively decline until the next model year. It just never happened for Tesla as sales seemed to increase with a 6 year old platform.
We saw this with the ipace, lucid and the Taycan. Strong start and then dying with a whimper.
As far as I know, at 3.30pm, Robin Hood starts automatically closing out long options that are ITM and where the associated account does not have the buying power to exercise the option (which we can assume is most RH accounts since the average RH account size is ~$2.5k and TSLA options trade with a 100 multiple, i.e. even a call option with a $50 strike will require an account balance of $5k to be exercised)
Given the facts that
(a) TSLA's option market is by far the largest;
(b) a lot of retail traders gamble in TSLA options;
(c) there has been a substantial runup in TSLA this week;
(d) upon sell-to-close, the market makers need to unwind the hedges they had entered into to remain delta neutral (i.e., sell the shares they had bought to be able to deliver them should the option holder exercise);
(e) this being a predictable and thus tradeable signal (will happen every options expiration date around 3.30pm), inviting algo traders to frontrun the expected dump by shorting ahead of the 3.30pm mark;
(f) other call option holders, upon recognizing the fast decrease in price, decide to close out their long option positions, thus further adding to the downwards pressure, along with equity daytraders who were long after the runup today and likely had trailing stop losses set;
a case can be made that this behavior is by design and not manipulation.
The higher the MM's exposure (i.e. the higher the accumulated delta for all the options being liquidated is), the sharper the dump should be. Due to the substantial runup in TSLA, a lot of outstanding options went from OTM to ITM, substantially increasing the delta that the MMs had to warehouse (like a sponge).
Happy weekend
Max
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