Small addition. In a few cases the property owner pays for electricity. I was at one this morning. There was a sign: “electricity provided my HyVee”.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Waymo just killed a dog:
Relevant when comparing performance of FSD. Bizzarely it even had a safety driver. clearly not that good a driver methinks.
Autonomous Waymo car runs over dog in San Francisco
The vehicle was in autonomous mode with a safety driver present in a 25 mph zone.arstechnica.com
There’s some mixed reports about whether or not anybody was actually even blocked in this event below; but your point stands, and maybe a step in the wrong direction for autonomy.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Yeah, speaking for myself there was noting lucky about me investing in Tesla. I spent a lot of time studying (almost a month, full time) what sector to invest in and then what company (well that part didn't take that long). There was some luck in the timing but certainly not in picking Tesla.
My SO said this is going to 500 in a month based on this deal.
I told her she does not understand market dynamics.
She didn’t seem impressed.
The rule is to pull over if you can, which it clearly could have done. Pulling over helps to creates a large central lane making it easier and safer for emergency vehicles to speed. Blocking is misreporting.
Thumper
Active Member
Right on schedule, a negative piece in WaPo today on FSD. No link
At least you're SO still talks to you...mine just started again after this run up
That being said, i like the way your SO thinks.
It's not hard to imagine that WaPo is at least a little bit influenced by Bezos and his competition with EM. This was very apparent to me a few years back when Slate (formerly owned by WaPo and whose reporters no doubt wish to curry favor with the old boss or who also work for WaPo) ran a piece about "the most evil companies in the world".
SpaceX was on that list. Not Exxon, not gun manufacturers, tobacco cos, defense contractors, or other companies you might expect to be labeled as "evil". SpaceX. Why? Because their satellite constellation would somehow destroy astronomy. Of course the article did not offer any balance talking about what a benefit to humanity that more free access to the web would be.
Isn't it just odd that this article did not feel like mentioning Amazon and Kuiper who intended to build the same type of network? That was the point where I'd had enough of Slate despite being a daily reader and commenter.
Captkerosene
Member
Autoline guy interview of Jim Farley:
TLDR: As much as I like Farley, they don't have a chance.
TLDR: As much as I like Farley, they don't have a chance.
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Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
My suspicion is the key thing for Elon was that they adopt the NACS only on the vehicles which forces the whole industry (vehicles and chargers) to go this way in North America.
In the end it will be better for everyone including Tesla owners as we will have even more options with no adaptor.
The next step needs to be universal plug and charge without regards to charging equipment owner. With Tesla as the largest provider I am sure they will figure out how to make this happen for all vehicles and chargers. Then it becomes even easier than a gas station as we don't need to pull out a credit card or app wherever we go.
Turns out I have a picture of my old 2013 Model S charging at that charger. That was my favorite Tesla, sniff.
Definitely a prototype charger, 90kW, probably the only one made like this.
Bit of a discussion on this over on the 11.X.X FSD thread:
- Running an older version of FSD-b on a narrow, un-lane-marked road.
- Person "driving" the car had a safety-defeat-device weight system on the steering wheel.
No wonder the NHTSA has not been blaming FSD for accidents.
Unfortunately dogs get killed by cars all the time. They have a bad habit of seeing a rabbit or something and darting right in front of a car.Waymo just killed a dog:
Relevant when comparing performance of FSD. Bizzarely it even had a safety driver. clearly not that good a driver methinks.Autonomous Waymo car runs over dog in San Francisco
The vehicle was in autonomous mode with a safety driver present in a 25 mph zone.
Heres an example of FSD hitting a dog. Now in this case, the car was traveling at 64 mph (unlike the waymo at 25 mph). IMHO, there was no time for a human or FSD to react. The link has teslacam footage so don’t click unless you can handle it.
Captkerosene
Member
I'm thinking it's more about the software. Think smart phone, smart car and now smart charger.
Just wanted to share my 0.02 on the recent news of GM joining.
TBH, the financial implication to TSLA remains to be seen (I'd touch on this later), but as a Tesla driver, I think this is a huge plus.
The idea is simple... before Ford and GM joined, Tesla could only build SC sites taking into account the usage of Tesla drivers and its fleet of cars. With Ford and GM... and what I expect ALL EV carmakers joining on board, Tesla is able to justify the investment of many more supercharger sites as the TAM just got so much bigger.
This is especially true for markets where it's currently underserved and the reason is that there is just not enough demand. Think markets such as AK or less populous states/provinces. They simply did not have the demand yet to justify building a site that everything accounted for, might be a million dollar investment. So expansion would be slow and only concentrated in major routes/cities.
And I believe that with the added potential demand, Tesla... with its megapack and solar products, can come up with some pretty clever design for smaller or more difficult routes to bring so much power in. Think a SC site in the middle of nowhere with nothing but a megapack, Starlink and a solar array to power 2-4 superchargers spots. And this goes far beyond just Tesla's own investment. They could put up such a package and allow 3rd parties to invest in such an infrastructure.
Now, it's not all pessimistic on the financial side either. I've mentioned it before... I believe around the time when Apple Car was rumored. It is in Tesla's best interest (both its mission and finances) to provide everyone with its own hardware. This goes for NACS, FSD, drivetrain, BMS... so on.
It's all about economy of scale. If Tesla were to design and invest in something new, but could only rely on its own fleet to spread the cost, it would have to model its projections of financial feasibility on a smaller scale. However, if it could sell all those parts/software/services to all the other players in the world, it would have a scale like no other. Even as Elon had mentioned... TSLA is providing this hardware at cost... it would still benefit TSLA greatly as their fixed cost can be spread onto a much larger scale. This is truly where I believe Elon's comment on Tesla being "worth more than Apple and Aramco combined" one day going to come from.
If TSLA is the frontrunner in EV world, and the future of transportation is EV, and Tesla gets to provide most of the major components in EV, this is something hard to grasp now just how big TSLA would become one day.
TBH, the financial implication to TSLA remains to be seen (I'd touch on this later), but as a Tesla driver, I think this is a huge plus.
The idea is simple... before Ford and GM joined, Tesla could only build SC sites taking into account the usage of Tesla drivers and its fleet of cars. With Ford and GM... and what I expect ALL EV carmakers joining on board, Tesla is able to justify the investment of many more supercharger sites as the TAM just got so much bigger.
This is especially true for markets where it's currently underserved and the reason is that there is just not enough demand. Think markets such as AK or less populous states/provinces. They simply did not have the demand yet to justify building a site that everything accounted for, might be a million dollar investment. So expansion would be slow and only concentrated in major routes/cities.
And I believe that with the added potential demand, Tesla... with its megapack and solar products, can come up with some pretty clever design for smaller or more difficult routes to bring so much power in. Think a SC site in the middle of nowhere with nothing but a megapack, Starlink and a solar array to power 2-4 superchargers spots. And this goes far beyond just Tesla's own investment. They could put up such a package and allow 3rd parties to invest in such an infrastructure.
Now, it's not all pessimistic on the financial side either. I've mentioned it before... I believe around the time when Apple Car was rumored. It is in Tesla's best interest (both its mission and finances) to provide everyone with its own hardware. This goes for NACS, FSD, drivetrain, BMS... so on.
It's all about economy of scale. If Tesla were to design and invest in something new, but could only rely on its own fleet to spread the cost, it would have to model its projections of financial feasibility on a smaller scale. However, if it could sell all those parts/software/services to all the other players in the world, it would have a scale like no other. Even as Elon had mentioned... TSLA is providing this hardware at cost... it would still benefit TSLA greatly as their fixed cost can be spread onto a much larger scale. This is truly where I believe Elon's comment on Tesla being "worth more than Apple and Aramco combined" one day going to come from.
If TSLA is the frontrunner in EV world, and the future of transportation is EV, and Tesla gets to provide most of the major components in EV, this is something hard to grasp now just how big TSLA would become one day.
I more-or-less agree with you, but there's some snivvys that could be addressed.
First off: The major assumption here is that the World Is Going to BEVs. We kind of know this: Fundamentally, a BEV is a simpler machine than an ICE: Fewer moving parts, much simpler drive train (no transmission, to speak of, for example). The only reason it's not cheaper to build (and I think we've passed that point now, what with Tesla M3's crossing the price of a Toyota Corolla) is that the Manufacturing Powers That Be haven't had the time to optimize the manufacturing of BEVs to the same extent that they've optimized the manufacture of ICEs. Finally, in this paragraph, it's obvious to one and all that BEVs are cheaper than ICEs to run around the landscape. These, I dunno, "economies?" (they're not of scale) are going to drive ICEs out of the market; don't let the door hit one on the caboose on the way out.
Having said that: Hydrocarbon Fueling Stations Are Not Going To Make BEVs go. Yeah, people are going to have Wall Connectors in their garages, on the sides of buildings, strung around parking lots, and all that: But we're definitely going to need a boat-load of DC fast chargers everywhere. Think: Apartment Dwellers.
Worse, it takes more than the 90 seconds or so it takes to fuel an ICE. So, while a great number of the cars will be happily charging away at whatever counts as $HOME, figure that everywhere one sees a gas station, figure that roughly that number of locations will need DC fast chargers as well. (Figure: +5%, -50% of the numbers of gas stations as a rough guess. That's still a heck of a lot of charging stations.)
Tesla isn't going to do this on its own. Nice if it can.
Right now Tesla is aiming for a 10% profit on a SC business. At this time, in this place, the Tesla's SC network is roughly doubling every year. That's why we're all paying 3X home electric rates when we buy electricity at an AC; a good chunk of what we're paying is going to New Superchargers.
And the likes of Chargepoint, Electrify America, and Blink are also moving into the DC fast charging space. Yes, they're charging about as much as Tesla. They're at least partly funded by the capital markets (stock, venture capitalists, banks, governments) to get started and get their hardware into place. Most of these non-Tesla DC people appear to be shorting maintenance so they can grow even faster (or pay the C-suite more dough, even if it kills the company. It happens.).
But that 10% profit? Supermarkets operate on less profit margin than that. Given competition, 10% profit margin isn't a bad business to be in.
What I see: In the near term over the next few years, Tesla and the Dwarfs are going to be running around installing DC fast chargers everywhere, because, by gum, one would have to be both blind and stupid not to realize that there's going to be a rush of BEVs to use such stations, and that's happening right now.
(As an aside: Given the oh-so-wonderful-way that pointy-headed bosses think, anybody want to lay bets that we won't end up with an overbuild of DC fast chargers? Think about all those rent-a-bikes in junkyards, stacked 60' tall in China.)
At some point, the market is going to become saturated. There won't be a point of installing SC's all over the landscape when there aren't increasing numbers of BEVs to use them. Which means that capital costs are going to drop. And, if one has competition with multiple DC providers, that's when the price of charging will come under pressure and drop. My guess: We'll go from 3X home charging rates to, what, 1.5X to 2X home charging rates.
Which will make charging BEVs even cheaper, a good thing.
I don't think Musk and Tesla actually want to become a monopoly. The landscape, when it all settles out, will be a bunch of DC electricity providers, competing on price and availability. I figure: Ten years. But the real, live, Adam-Smith-was-here markets will decide.
The nice thing about everybody on one standard? No funny bugger stuff about locking up a particular BEV to one provider. Cheaper for the consumer.
Wonder if the EU will come to grips with this.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
There's still folks that are red. Anyone who mistimed the market and bought on or around 19 months ago are lost in that table. 19 months ago TSLA SP was at $409 (split adjusted). Those shares are still down 40%. While I didn't buy at ATH, I definitely have some lots that are still red and will, very likely, remain red through 2023. But, they will be black again. I'm all for celebrating the progress we've made in the last month, but WS still owes me some money. Making new ATH is the real goal for me....To infinity and beyond!
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Source? It's my understanding that the vast majority of all SC locations pull electricity from the grid where they are subject to the local power company's rates, connection fees and "demand" charge premiums.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That's from 6 years ago yesterday.
AFAIK the number where it actually happened can be counted on one hand. With fingers left over.
In principle, Tesla could generate solar energy offsite to offset supercharger usage. Electrons are fungible after all.
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