Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

I love how folks like Garry Black assign no value to things Tesla is doing that will be a huge catalyst to future SP increases.
By the time they get around to assigning anything to them, the train will have left the station SP wise.

As analysts, they are great at sounding smart while they explain what has already happened....no clue as to the future.

If before I loaded up on TSLA I would have paid them any attention.....well I would not have loaded up.

 

[mongo]

Source? It's my understanding that the vast majority of all SC locations pull electricity from the grid where they are subject to the local power company's rates, connection fees and "demand" charge premiums.

Sorry, didn't mean to imply Supercharging (while >99 renewable offset) is 100% Tesla sourced today. Rather that the electric bill might also be a Tesla revenue stream.
Tesla Electric | Tesla

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605590368841388033

 

[keydiver]

In principle, Tesla could generate solar energy offsite to offset supercharger usage. Electrons are fungible after all.

I think Elon has already said that all SuperCharger sites are already buying "green" solar, wind, or hydro electricity. Sure, some/most of the electrons may be coming from other sources, but Tesla is doing everything they can to offset that. Hopefully that FUD will stop when Tesla finally gets solar and batteries installed at most locations.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It concerns me a little that there wasn’t an immediate release of new “coming soon” supercharger sites after the announcements of ford and GM to switch to NCAS. They must have known for awhile that this was coming. I would have thought with the extra traffic load that the existing network will now have to bare there would have been some indication of an accelerated installation rate of superchargers.

And how about GM and Ford dealers. Will they finally get involved in a serious way with charging infrastructure? The Canadian prairies are still a bit of a charging desert, but if every ford and GM dealer put in a half dozen chargers with NACS charging facilities it would open up the backwaters a lot as there are dealers everywhere.

Hopefully we will see more on accelerated plans soon.

Jmho

 

[Oveeus]

The problem with generating energy off site is that the cost of paying electrical wires, especially those needed for high voltage are extremely expensive.

It makes sense to be connected to the grid in areas where existing infrastructure are already in place. But not everywhere you can find high voltage, 3 phase power lines that supercharging requires.

What could change the game though, it’s the mega pack. It’s got enough storage that it can power the supercharging, and recharge by either solar arrays or low power single phase lines (240v, single phase lines max out at around 25kw)when it’s not being used. Making it extremely attractive to places where doesn’t have the high voltage lines, but could see some decent demand like near National parks where demand is very seasonal and makes bringing high power lines too expensive or downright impossible.

 

[mongo]

It concerns me a little that there wasn’t an immediate release of new “coming soon” supercharger sites after the announcements of ford and GM to switch to NCAS. They must have known for awhile that this was coming. I would have thought with the extra traffic load that the existing network will now have to bare there would have been some indication of an accelerated installation rate of superchargers.

And how about GM and Ford dealers. Will they finally get involved in a serious way with charging infrastructure? The Canadian prairies are still a bit of a charging desert, but if every ford and GM dealer put in a half dozen chargers with NACS charging facilities it would open up the backwaters a lot as there are dealers everywhere.

Hopefully we will see more on accelerated plans soon.

Jmho

The adapters won't be available until next year, they have time. Once those are out, existing connectors can also be recabled with NACS to prepare for 2025.

Also, Tesla will sell more cars in the US in those 9-12 months than GM and Ford will (possibly more than they have in total?). So the incremental increase vs Tesla fleet size is not that onerous.

Q1 2023:
Tesla: 161k
GM: 21k
Ford: 11k
GM overtakes Ford as second-best seller of EVs in U.S. but still trails Tesla by a wide margin

 

[RubberToe]

Turns out I have a picture of my old 2013 Model S charging at that charger. That was my favorite Tesla, sniff.

Definitely a prototype charger, 90kW, probably the only one made like this.

View attachment 945633

OMG is that an original Brown Model S?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It concerns me a little that there wasn’t an immediate release of new “coming soon” supercharger sites after the announcements of ford and GM to switch to NCAS. They must have known for awhile that this was coming. I would have thought with the extra traffic load that the existing network will now have to bare there would have been some indication of an accelerated installation rate of superchargers.

And how about GM and Ford dealers. Will they finally get involved in a serious way with charging infrastructure? The Canadian prairies are still a bit of a charging desert, but if every ford and GM dealer put in a half dozen chargers with NACS charging facilities it would open up the backwaters a lot as there are dealers everywhere.

Hopefully we will see more on accelerated plans soon.

Jmho

Adapters won't be available until Spring, cumulative sales aren't that high, they can't use v2 Superchargers, and Superchargers don't make the Bolt charge any faster.

 

[Ipcress]

It seems slower than a Stamping press. But then, there are less parts to bend in a CT. Purely based on the size in comparison, I am wildly guessing that Capex may also be lower.

They can speed up the video.

 

[Curt Renz]

"The World is Changing: GM Follows Ford to Adopt Tesla's NACS Ports"​

Munro Live - Friday:

 

[cliff harris]

A note on supercharger install rates, costs and attached solar/megapacks.

My experience is a 3 year battle to build a small 1.2mwp solar farm in the UK...
Its hell. Its bureaucracy hell, paperwork hell, permit hell, grid connection hell, delay hell, earthing-design hell, construction hell and subcontractor hell.

Superchargers pull a MASSIVE amount of power. Even if you have free megapacks to stick there to provide some short term buffering, you are still in need of a crazy high-power grid connection. Superchargers sit there looking all innocent, but even in continual decent sun, a megawatt of power is 4 acres of solar panels (about 3,200 of them), probably 10 industrial inverters plus switchgear yada yada.

A supercharger with 16 stalls, and solar power is going to need about 8 acres of solar panels next to it in summer. more like 40 acres of panels if winter.

TLR; On-site solar is a rounding-error for a supercharger. Installing high power connections is VERY slow. There is good reason that the time from permit to opening of new sites is sometimes years. This is also why GM/Ford could never catch up.

 

[Todd Burch]

It concerns me a little that there wasn’t an immediate release of new “coming soon” supercharger sites after the announcements of ford and GM to switch to NCAS. They must have known for awhile that this was coming. I would have thought with the extra traffic load that the existing network will now have to bare there would have been some indication of an accelerated installation rate of superchargers.

And how about GM and Ford dealers. Will they finally get involved in a serious way with charging infrastructure? The Canadian prairies are still a bit of a charging desert, but if every ford and GM dealer put in a half dozen chargers with NACS charging facilities it would open up the backwaters a lot as there are dealers everywhere.

Hopefully we will see more on accelerated plans soon.

Jmho

Are you concerned about the 13 EVs per year GM is currently capable of manufacturing?

 

[Krugerrand]

I have a bunch of apparently intelligent buddies who are convinced that the supercharger deals are Tesla losing, and being forced to open up by the governments, and this shows how stupid elon is and yada yada unintelligent hate-spam and stupidity...
The same people dont seem to think there is any branding impact at all on all those Ford/GM owners having to rely on Tesla for roadtrips. These peoples inability to comprehend kindergarten level marketing boggles my mind.

One extra thing that occurs to me regarding thiese deals.
Imagine someone who knows nothing about EVs in a GM/Ford dealership, being tempted to sign the deal and buy the BEV, but asking where you would charge the vehicle on a roadtrip. Imagine the difficulty of framing an answer that doesnt mention the word Tesla.

Being virtually forced to mention the name of the industry leader and your chief competitor right at the point of sale.

It amazes me that actual adults who can tie their shoelaces, do not see this as a hilarious victory for Tesla and defeat for GM/Ford. But such people exist. I guess thats why the stock is only $250 and not $350 already. But that time will come.

I think you just need to recalibrate what you define as ‘intelligent’ buddies. I mean, I could tie my shoelaces by 5 years of age. You don’t have to be particularly smart to do it, just have a bit of dexterity.

But seriously, there’s different kinds of intelligence and people can be both incredibly intelligent and super not intelligent at the same time depending on the subject matter or skill. The people you speak of have little intelligence or ability of foresight, connecting the dots, or envisioning a complex, multi-faceted outcome.

Just be thankful you’re not their kind of intelligence. It’s the difference between being book smart vs common sense smart.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Are you concerned about the 13 EVs per year GM is currently capable of manufacturing?

. I hear ya.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are you concerned about the 13 EVs per year GM is currently capable of manufacturing?

Is that 13 before or after recalls?

 

[y_naught]

Worse, it takes more than the 90 seconds or so it takes to fuel an ICE. So, while a great number of the cars will be happily charging away at whatever counts as $HOME, figure that everywhere one sees a gas station, figure that roughly that number of locations will need DC fast chargers as well. (Figure: +5%, -50% of the numbers of gas stations as a rough guess. That's still a heck of a lot of charging stations.)

I generally agree with your post and this, but I do think fueling time ccmpared to charging time is a bit of a red herring. Think if people could fill their cars with gas in their garages using a system that they largely already had in place, for 1/3 to 1/2 the price per gallon, only it took 8 hours. There would be damn few people at gas stations.

 

[Electroman]

Has CharIN put out any new message yet since GM's announcement? I know they were almost in tears after Ford announcement.

I see nothing on their webpage. Apparently they should have been shell shocked.

CharIN Response to Ford Announcement to use the NACS Proprietary Network – CharIN

Empowering the next level of e-mobility by developing and establishing the Combined Charging System (CCS) as the global standard for charging battery powered electric vehicles.

www.charin.global

 

[robertvg]

Has CharIN put out any new message yet since GM's announcement? I know they were almost in tears after Ford announcement.

I see nothing on their webpage. Apparently they should have been shell shocked.

View attachment 945709

CharIN Response to Ford Announcement to use the NACS Proprietary Network – CharIN

Empowering the next level of e-mobility by developing and establishing the Combined Charging System (CCS) as the global standard for charging battery powered electric vehicles.

www.charin.global

I got a mail from CharIn about their session program at the EVS next week in Sacramento. Will be interesting to attend and see/hear their response

 

[ZeApelido]

While I didn't buy at ATH, I definitely have some lots that are still red and will, very likely, remain red through 2023. But, they will be black again.

I was always puzzled by my wife telling me “once you go black, you never go back”, and then watching my portfolio go deep red.

So confusing.

 

[Tronguy]

It concerns me a little that there wasn’t an immediate release of new “coming soon” supercharger sites after the announcements of ford and GM to switch to NCAS. They must have known for awhile that this was coming. I would have thought with the extra traffic load that the existing network will now have to bare there would have been some indication of an accelerated installation rate of superchargers.

And how about GM and Ford dealers. Will they finally get involved in a serious way with charging infrastructure? The Canadian prairies are still a bit of a charging desert, but if every ford and GM dealer put in a half dozen chargers with NACS charging facilities it would open up the backwaters a lot as there are dealers everywhere.

Hopefully we will see more on accelerated plans soon.

Jmho

My guess is that Tesla will dip into that 10% Profit flow and accelerate the installations a bit. It's not like they're not putting in SC's like mad at the moment; they'll just get a bit madder.

Remember: In terms of BEV Vehicles on The Road, Tesla vastly outnumbers Everybody Else. And that includes GM and Ford. The small increase in usage due to GM and Ford, as compared to the massive increases from More Teslas every year, will, in my opinion, not be causing problems.