Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

Awesome!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672252679324680193

While I like Mr Baron, I'd be slightly disappointed with $500 in 2025.

The Tesla Stephenson Indicator™ is at 486.58 now and rises $1.69 every 3 days. That's just over a month to hit $500.

Mid 2024 is $630, Mid 2025 is $790, Mid 2026 is $950, Mid 2027 is $1110, Mid 2028 is $1270, Mid 2029 is $1430

So I guess I'm not so disapointed with $1500 in 2030.

Tesla Stock Data

Stephenson Indicator

docs.google.com

​

 

[Singuy]

While I like Mr Baron, I'd be sorely disappointed with $500 in 2025.

The Tesla Stephenson Indicator™ is at 486.58 now and rises $1.69 every 3 days. That's just over a month to hit $500.

Mid 2024 is $630, Mid 2025 is $790, Mid 2026 is $950, Mid 2027 is $1110, Mid 2028 is $1270, Mid 2029 is $1430

So I guess I'm not so disapointed with $1500 in 2030.

Tesla Stock Data

Stephenson Indicator

docs.google.com

​

What is this the Stephenson indicator?

 

[dhanson865]

What is this the Stephenson indicator?

James is Icannot_enough on twitter (I cannot underscore enough) and does a lot of nice graphs for Tesla and TSLA

and a current visualization of it is

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What is this the Stephenson indicator?

Is essentially the uptrend line set from 2019 through 2021. James Stephenson’s math came out to TSLA adding X number on the share price every week based on that uptrend line

 

[Knightshade]

James is Icannot_enough on twitter (I cannot underscore enough) and does a lot of nice graphs for Tesla and TSLA

Worth noting that his forecasts, especially for production of vehicles, tend to be wildly optimistic... he had almost 50k semis coming out of Gigatexas in 2021 in one of his late 2020 "next year of production" estimates for example... and over 25k cybertrucks- plus the new compact selling thousands by Q4 2021 and overall 2021 production up 120% from 2020... even when he revised them in mid 2021 he had semis and CTs still shipping that year and was still significantly too high on production everywhere esp. new factories.

I agree his graphs are very pretty though.

For example here's one from his forecast posted just over 1 month ago.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655353671486517249

He's projecting about 520,000 deliveries in Q2. The one ending next week- for which Troy is at 441k and analyst consensus is at 448k.

 

[dhanson865]

Is essentially the uptrend line set from 2019 through 2021. James Stephenson’s math came out to TSLA adding X number on the share price every week based on that uptrend line

The visualization starts on Mar 18 2020 and goes to the present day.

And for anyone not willing to watch 3 minutes of youtube (if you watch the first 3 minutes of that video you'll get the gist, and at at about 8:30 you'll see the tweet naming it), it's not meant to be some insanely serious thing, the name was given by someone replying to his tweet of a graph and jokingly applied to all future versions of the graph.

Still I'd be disappointed with only $500 in 2025.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Another rumour with big consequencies:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672309106093457410

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Tesla to license Autopilot / FSD Mobileye?
Off topic galore MMA fight remains a go
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot Tesla team still working towards an infinite economy
Russia/Ukraine conflict Wagner Vs Russia!

 

[Singuy]

I guess MM fell asleep last min and quickly pumps Tsla to 257.5 to close at max pain.

 

[2daMoon]

Looks like a lot of buyers got a good discount today.

Wish I were one of them...

Edit: A Happy Fridayujah to those that did!

 

[Singuy]

Another rumour with big consequencies:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672309106093457410

Tesla scores first place in AEB testing from NCAP while using no radar. All other brands did eventually hit something while the Tesla didn't. So either they all fall in line or let hubris kill people that could have been preventable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I guess MM fell asleep last min and quickly pumps Tsla to 257.5 to close at max pain.

Yeah, somebody suddenly remembered "T/A!" and sprang the SP back to the 10-d SMA:

No matter, MMs caught 'em in the final 150 seconds of trading. The trouble with T/A isn't that it's not real, or that it's not widely used, it's that it gives multiple answers, and it's a "Right-minus-Wrong" exam...

Paging @Papafox 13.5M shares traded in the 4:00 pm minute during the Closing Cross: (IMO, this elevated volume is the last of the S&P 500 Indexed Funds topping off their TSLA after last Friday's Rebalancing -- Funds have between 3 to 5 days before/after the rebalancing date to complete their buys'n'sells)

Cheers!

 

[EVMeister]

Despite the modest down move in the TSLA price at this moment today, a Golden Cross formation has been achieved. This is due to the 50-day SMA (simple moving averages) pushing above the 200-day SMA. This may be viewed as a bullish technical sign that a significant rally can resume and continue.

More like a rusty iron cross so far.

 

[Big Time]

Triple Bottom? @Artful Dodger

 

[Nolimits]

House finally sold. Used to proceeds to buy more tsla at 250. While I am upset I had to liquidate a bunch last month, glad to be back in before golden cross and before cybertruck launch. LFG! (Won’t be upset if we dip further to set a higher low for a healthy correction).

 

[jkirkwood001]

@TesslaBull
from around jan 2020 to around may 2022,
the yellow line, 50day Simple moving average was _above_
the thick black line, 200 day SMA
the light blue line 20 day SMA

ie 50 day SMA > 200 day SMA (upwards pressure?)

things generally trending upwards, tho the "ziggy zaggy" daily prices tend to say "jold ma bheer fer a bit"

from around may 2022 trend was downwards, occasionally with a vengence

ie 200 day SMA > 50day SMA (downwards pressure?)

now the trend _may_ be reversing_,
but again "ghod (and the quants) only noes"
(whats it gonna be boy?)

the significance of the cross, at least to me, is a _lot_ of real folks, plus "synthetic" folks, lesser grade AI's and programs follow those indicators and _may_ tend to exercebate moves, preferably upwards

Is it predictive? I have no idea but probably not
confirmatory? the eyes can see patterns in hallucinations and ears hear commands from unseen voices from invisible beings so maybe

Is it better than "scrying" (reading warm fresh sheep entrails)

I have no idea nor do I want to know, but you did ask that thats my interpretation

(I've followed TA for 40 years, if it worked and _only_ I used it maybe, but enough use it so predicitve value diluted out) but still pretty patterns)

View attachment 950078

With respect, this is a classic technocratic response - liked by 13, so clearly resonated with some! But still gobbledygook for many of us.

A simple answer, in layperson's terms is:

• A Golden Cross occurs when a stock is trading most recently (in the last 50 days) significantly higher than it has in the longer term (past 200 days).

Implication:

• IF the trend continues, the stock could continue to rise exponentially, indicating a very fast rise in share price.
• OR it won't. There's no absolute way to know in advance. (Depends on how much faith you put in technical analysis).

Hope this helps! (Did I get it right?)

 

[Max Plaid]

View attachment 949891

Bungholio and his twirling fartknockers...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

With respect, this is a classic technocratic response - liked by 13, so clearly resonated with some! But still gobbledygook for many of us.

A simple answer, in layperson's terms is:

• A Golden Cross occurs when a stock is trading most recently (in the last 50 days) significantly higher than it has in the longer term (past 200 days).

Implication:

• IF the trend continues, the stock could continue to rise exponentially, indicating a very fast rise in share price.
• OR it won't. There's no absolute way to know in advance. (Depends on how much faith you put in technical analysis).

Hope this helps! (Did I get it right?)

So it could go up or it could go down.......got it

 

[Knightshade]

So it could go up or it could go down.......got it

or it could trade sideways! What an exciting simulation we live in!

 

[winfield100]

With respect, this is a classic technocratic response - liked by 13, so clearly resonated with some! But still gobbledygook for many of us.

A simple answer, in layperson's terms is:

• A Golden Cross occurs when a stock is trading most recently (in the last 50 days) significantly higher than it has in the longer term (past 200 days).

Implication:

• IF the trend continues, the stock could continue to rise exponentially, indicating a very fast rise in share price.
• OR it won't. There's no absolute way to know in advance. (Depends on how much faith you put in technical analysis).

Hope this helps! (Did I get it right?)

your interpretation of my response, tis not my fault, but you got "gobbledygook" so there's hope

I think I loosely said, more or less,
I got no idea only vague hints and glimpses

(may I suggest the grade B movie "Next", loosely based on the Novel "the golden man" by Philip K Dick. some folks in the markets seem close to Frank Cadillac, who can see 2 minutes into _a_ possible future/multiverse and shape things accordingly)