Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

So at this point it's just more blather from Elon that means exactly nothing.

It takes a blatherer to know a blatherer.

 

[Bet TSLA]

It takes a blatherer to know a blatherer.

Know any?

 

[EVMeister]

Cat fight!

 

[Stormy24]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680121747910148099

 

[FlamingPIG]

oh yes

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680121747910148099

 

[aubreymcfato]

Practically every Tesla bull out there is cautioning about Q2 earnings and margin hit and to stay focused on the future.

I guess I'm quite alone in the camp that thinks it's entirely possible that gross margins not only maintain Q1's gm but can be back above 20% this quarter.

Let's say for the sake of argument, ASP did drop $3k from Q1.

Do I think the combination these things could offset that?

- Austin/Berlin materially higher production
- Shanghai production being higher than Q1
- Much higher S/X sales,
- Drop in COGS
- Continued improvement in efficiency (same/more cars produced with less labor hours, the trend Tesla has been focusing on recently)
- More US production going to US deliveries and thus further reduction of COGS from batteries from Panasonic and more credit revenue directly to Tesla from increased 4680 battery production. (Q2 was the first quarter where all Canada deliveries came from Shanghai, not Austin/Fremont)
- Mixture of more sales going to higher trims
- More % of sales going to Y thanks to Austin/Berlin production making up more % of total production/deliveries (Y being the higher margin vehicle at higher ASP too)

Some of these would actually keep ASP from falling as much, mainly the last two. Now I'm not saying Q2's gross margin will be 20%. But the ingredients are there for it to be possible. A lot of will be determined by when vehicles were produced at Austin/Berlin, at what weekly production ramp they were produced at, and if the vehicles built at the higher production weekly rates were able to be sold in time for Q2. Same with reduction in COGS, we don't know if Tesla was able to realize reduction in their COGS at the beginning, middle, or end of Q2.

I agree with you. Also Tesla has flattened the wave a bit, which hopefully means less overtime for a ton of people and more efficient logistics.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Distracted CEO: /s

First Cybertruck built at Giga Texas! (JPEG Image, 2048 × 1150 pixels) | Tesla on Twitter July 15, 2023

Cheers to the Tesla Team! (oh, you too, Elon)...

 

[heltok]

oh yes

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680121747910148099

Lots of employees making the cybertruck shape with their fingers:

Guess that's our secret way of greeting each other now!

 

[aubreymcfato]

When you see charts like this, Shangai becomes even more impressive: in 6 quarters, Shanghai was at 100k, while Berlin & Fremont don't reach 100k together.

 

[Buckminster]

New advertisement:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680133782500970496

 

[Buckminster]

Cybertruck launch date guesses here:
Launch is Imminent

 

[MC3OZ]

There is a claim that they have solved something. No evidence. And, as you write, "Elon has a VERY poor record of assessing AI anything."

So at this point it's just more blather from Elon that means exactly nothing.

Yeah it is not like Elon has ever achieved anything

On the other hand, Gordon Johnston has a very consistent track record.

 

[petit_bateau]

I had the same thought.

I understand there is a significant need for torsional strength to handle loads in the bed when on uneven surfaces. One reason for the ladder frame on all pickups and the bed always separate from the cab to allow some torsional bending.

The model Y quarter panels do provide some torsional strength. It just does not need to be nearly as strong as a truck.

Although this video is the extreme case it gives you the idea.

It appears the rear portion of the exoskeleton will help provide this strength. Where as on a regular pickup the bed is just along for the ride. With no gap on the Cybertruck between the bed and cab it had better be stiff to support a 3500 lb payload.

Good point re rear bed movement, which I hadn't thought of. It definitely isn't ladder frame.

I'm not sure that the term exoskeleton is applicable any longer to the Cybertruck design that we see in front of us. It may be beneficial as marketing fluffery but looking at the pictures this seems to me to be a conventional unibody as is typical in most mass-production consumer vehicles, i.e. pretty much everything that is not ladder frame (or the rare space frame designs).

I believe some other US pickups are monococque/unibodies - for example Ford Maverick; Hyundai Santa Cruz; Honda Ridgeline.

Cybertruck's exterior panels may be ~3mm thick. That should add quite a bit of rigidity and prevent damage from door dings, shopping carts, and 9mm firearms.

This would be different from the Y.

Interesting.

The other way of looking at that is they can't get the cosmetic result they wanted from thinner gauge and so have had to thicken up the exterior panels to get the cosmetic finish they are seeking. If so that is a partial failure in design terms. The reason I say that is the main structural safety/crash cell is the inner cage. Given the observable fixings between the inner and the outer panels, then the outer panels will not be able to take as much applied force before yielding (because fixings will deform) compared with the same amount of weight being incorporated in the inner cage. There is a reason that painted steel exteriors are thin gauge - so as to reduce weight in an area where it is not needed.

I wonder what corrosion protection they will be putting on the internal / aluminium areas ? Will there be a dipping & drying process ? Maybe the non-cosmetic functions of the paint shop have not been entirely eliminated.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Good point re rear bed movement, which I hadn't thought of. It definitely isn't ladder frame.

I'm not sure that the term exoskeleton is applicable any longer to the Cybertruck design that we see in front of us. It may be beneficial as marketing fluffery but looking at the pictures this seems to me to be a conventional unibody as is typical in most mass-production consumer vehicles, i.e. pretty much everything that is not ladder frame (or the rare space frame designs).

I believe some other US pickups are monococque/unibodies - for example Ford Maverick; Hyundai Santa Cruz; Honda Ridgeline.

Cybertruck was announced in 2019 while according to wikipedia the first gigapress was only started in 2020. It doesn't surprise me that Tesla's engineering for the Cybertruck changed as they learned how cost effective gigacastings were.

 

[Buckminster]

Good point re rear bed movement, which I hadn't thought of. It definitely isn't ladder frame.

I'm not sure that the term exoskeleton is applicable any longer to the Cybertruck design that we see in front of us. It may be beneficial as marketing fluffery but looking at the pictures this seems to me to be a conventional unibody as is typical in most mass-production consumer vehicles, i.e. pretty much everything that is not ladder frame (or the rare space frame designs).

I believe some other US pickups are monococque/unibodies - for example Ford Maverick; Hyundai Santa Cruz; Honda Ridgeline.


Interesting.

The other way of looking at that is they can't get the cosmetic result they wanted from thinner gauge and so have had to thicken up the exterior panels to get the cosmetic finish they are seeking. If so that is a partial failure in design terms. The reason I say that is the main structural safety/crash cell is the inner cage. Given the observable fixings between the inner and the outer panels, then the outer panels will not be able to take as much applied force before yielding (because fixings will deform) compared with the same amount of weight being incorporated in the inner cage. There is a reason that painted steel exteriors are thin gauge - so as to reduce weight in an area where it is not needed.

I wonder what corrosion protection they will be putting on the internal / aluminium areas ? Will there be a dipping & drying process ? Maybe the non-cosmetic functions of the paint shop have not been entirely eliminated.

I would guesstimate that the SS skin contributes 20-40% of overall stiffness plus similar contribution to crash structure. Exoskeleton is a relative term. Also much of the rest of the structure is essentially an exoskeleton including the structural battery.

 

[petit_bateau]

I would guesstimate that the SS skin contributes 20-40% of overall stiffness plus similar contribution to crash structure. Exoskeleton is a relative term. Also much of the rest of the structure is essentially an exoskeleton including the structural battery.

The internal structure in most unibodies such as the Y or the Cybertruck would constitute an endoskeleton, rather than an exoskeloton.

Hence my question.

Exoskeleton - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[UkNorthampton]

New advertisement:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680133782500970496

Some of us get emailed invites to drive a Tesla on the Goodwood race circuit

 

[cliff harris]

I think the cybertruck texas tweet is very significant, and perhaps surprising. If we saw a 'report' or 'sources claim' or even a leaked image of a cybertruck, then we would be excused for saying that this is just early test production, nothing to get excited about, and deliveries were way off.
This is the actual tesla account, posing for a group photo, with an apparently completed cybertruck, heavily implying its production-line manufactured, not hand assembled.

Now sure, they will spend time taking first-run models through a ton of testing, and verification and we have no doubt a lot of bureaucracy to sort out before they get final approval to put these things in customers hands... but it all seems to be going pretty well.

Something else worth noting. Its only 4 days until earnings release & call. The fact that they didn't even wait until then for this photo is interesting. Its almost like there is more news to come on the 19th so they squeezed in this teaser first.

Tesla are usually awful at predicting timelines, but I think there is actual evidence that they are not only on-schedule but maybe ahead here. I'm now wondering if 2,000 CTs this year would be lowballing it?

 

[Cosmacelf]

When you see charts like this, Shangai becomes even more impressive: in 6 quarters, Shanghai was at 100k, while Berlin & Fremont don't reach 100k together.
View attachment 956428

Might this be due to brand new production processes being tried at Berlin and Austin? 4680, Giga casting, Cybertruck? But you’re right, the difference Is stark.

 

[Todd Burch]

When you see charts like this, Shangai becomes even more impressive: in 6 quarters, Shanghai was at 100k, while Berlin & Fremont don't reach 100k together.
View attachment 956428

This graph shows that Shanghai got to 100k on the “seventh dot” (after 6 full quarters). Berlin and Austin only have 6 dots (5 full quarters), so need to wait for one more quarter’s data to make that comparison.

Yes, Shanghai ramped faster to the same point, although Berlin and Austin have dealt with complications/limitations of 4680 production (reassigned from Berlin to Austin due to the Inflation Reduction Act & still ramping the tech), and Austin has dealt with production of an entirely new car (Cybertruck) built with new methods as well. So it’s hard to make a true apples to apples comparison.