Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Last night, Randy Kirk called $290 for TLSA today. We already touched the Upper-BB (at $292.22 exactly) by 09:36 ET and that's usually the signal for shortzes to jump in. We'll see how much FOMO is afoot with Earnings coming up in just 2 moar daze...

View attachment 956995

Cheers!

What's the signal for when the Shortz jump out?

 

[RMan]

Curt Renz

 

[thx1139]

I really dont care if the rumor that Cybertruck starts being produced with 350 mile range. What I care about is how big the battery is to hit the range it launches with. If the biggest bottleneck towards production is battery packs I rather it launch at lower range and introduce higher range as battery production catches up.

 

[Singuy]

GS released Nasdaq pro forma rebalance weight. Hate to be Nvidia.

 

[MartinAustin]

Anyone thinking the Cybertruck will never have a 500-mile trim, just because it is launching with a 350-mile trim... is an idiot. This is simply a 4680 ramp-related issue and makes perfect sense - assuming it is even true (as it is only a rumor). They get to sell more Cybertrucks, and also at a lower retail price, which if you want the 500-mile trim, you will appreciate in the long term. Interest rates are going to come down. You don't want to be buying a top-trim Cybertruck with super-high interest rates

Having said all that, IMO the rumor is wrong, and Tesla will be debuting with a long-range trim. Works better for reviews and comparisons, which will all stay around for a long time so it's better for them to not be saying "not as much range as the Silverado EV" etc.

 

[thx1139]

Anyone thinking the Cybertruck will never have a 500-mile trim, just because it is launching with a 350-mile trim... is an idiot. This is simply a 4680 ramp-related issue and makes perfect sense - assuming it is even true (as it is only a rumor). They get to sell more Cybertrucks, and also at a lower retail price, which if you want the 500-mile trim, you will appreciate in the long term. Interest rates are going to come down. You don't want to be buying a top-trim Cybertruck with super-high interest rates

Having said all that, IMO the rumor is wrong, and Tesla will be debuting with a long-range trim. Works better for reviews and comparisons, which will all stay around for a long time so it's better for them to not be saying "not as much range as the Silverado EV" etc.

When is the long range Silverado EV even coming out? Is it the launch model?

 

[FireMedic]

What's the signal for when the Shortz jump out?

Pff, that was 6 months ago. When the stock was in the $110-$150 range.

 

[2daMoon]

I know the range thing has been talked about ad-nauseum (and a mod has issued a caution).

I'll just point out that there's a good sized segment of folks that own travel trailers, and they typically travel much farther than 40 miles... heck loading/prepping/hooking it up almost isn't worth it for a 40 mile trip. When I owned mine, my typical trip was probably 75-150 miles one-way. Ditto for the guys I travelled with.

I see them towed far more often than mobile homes, which tend to be towed initially than parked for most of their life. Probably more than boats, bit less than construction stuff.

I do agree that there's a large population for which 350 miles is useful. But there's also a good-sized segment for which 500 miles (likely 275ish towing) is needed...

I see an opportunity for the first to manufacture a bolt-on trailer axle replacement with motor(s) and a battery pack. It could tie into a brake controller for synchronized regen braking on heavier trailers.

 

[Nocturnal]

Pff, that was 6 months ago. When the stock was in the $110-$150 range.

I thought it was back when the Model 3 successfully ramped but I have half a brain so I'm at least 74% more intelligent than the average TSLA short.

 

[strago13]

Anyone thinking the Cybertruck will never have a 500-mile trim, just because it is launching with a 350-mile trim... is an idiot. This is simply a 4680 ramp-related issue and makes perfect sense - assuming it is even true (as it is only a rumor). They get to sell more Cybertrucks, and also at a lower retail price, which if you want the 500-mile trim, you will appreciate in the long term. Interest rates are going to come down. You don't want to be buying a top-trim Cybertruck with super-high interest rates

Having said all that, IMO the rumor is wrong, and Tesla will be debuting with a long-range trim. Works better for reviews and comparisons, which will all stay around for a long time so it's better for them to not be saying "not as much range as the Silverado EV" etc.

Agree. When is the last time Tesla launched a product with the lowest trim level first? Hint: Never. They always release the highest end trim first since it helps keep margins up while depreciating a *sugar* ton of expenditures for new equipment lines.

 

[KMCC]

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[Singuy]

Agree. When is the last time Tesla launched a product with the lowest trim level first? Hint: Never. They always release the highest end trim first since it helps keep margins up while depreciating a *sugar* ton of expenditures for new equipment lines.

Tesla have launched the "mid trim" first when it came to the s refresh, and then cancelling the top trim. People are afraid they will do something similar with the truck, not that the 350 mile trim is bad.

 

[GhostSkater]

I can’t understand how they can squeeze 500 miles out of CT. So it will be good to temper expectations

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635741049187434540

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla have been launched "mid trim" first when it came to the s refresh, and then cancelling the top trim. People are afraid they will do something similar with the truck, not that the 350 mile trim is bad.

It would be disappointing but I need truck capability (bed, off road etc.) either way. Really hoping it's at least 400 miles though. 200 actual miles while towing a decent load is pretty solid.

 

[scaesare]

I see an opportunity for the first to manufacture a bolt-on trailer axle replacement with motor(s) and a battery pack. It could tie into a brake controller for synchronized regen braking on heavier trailers.

A retrofit kit is an interesting idea. I wonder how practical that would be.. I think axles are pretty standardized, so a motorised version that fits within the same volume might bee doable. The pack might be more challangeing, bet a set of flat undermount modules could work.

Have seen (announcements of) recharge-pack trailers as well as motorized trailers, for travel trailers anyway. I suspect cargo trailers will be coming, if they aren't already.

 

[Knightshade]

Agree. When is the last time Tesla launched a product with the lowest trim level first? Hint: Never.

The Model 3 launched with RWD.... the AWD and P models didn't come for almost another year.

They always release the highest end trim first since it helps keep margins up while depreciating a *sugar* ton of expenditures for new equipment lines.

I've heard people claiming this- but other than Plaid shipping first on the S/X refresh can't think of any time THAT was actually true.... (and it's not even true of the S/X if you consider there was a higher trim they just decided to cancel)

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Anyone thinking the Cybertruck will never have a 500-mile trim, just because it is launching with a 350-mile trim... is an idiot. This is simply a 4680 ramp-related issue and makes perfect sense - assuming it is even true (as it is only a rumor). They get to sell more Cybertrucks, and also at a lower retail price, which if you want the 500-mile trim, you will appreciate in the long term. Interest rates are going to come down. You don't want to be buying a top-trim Cybertruck with super-high interest rates

Having said all that, IMO the rumor is wrong, and Tesla will be debuting with a long-range trim. Works better for reviews and comparisons, which will all stay around for a long time so it's better for them to not be saying "not as much range as the Silverado EV" etc.

The top-spec vehicle may require high nickel cells that they aren't currently making.
Also, given the cell constraints, they may prefer to compromise the margin for volume.

 

[Singuy]

The Model 3 launched with RWD.... the AWD and P models didn't come for almost another year.




I've heard people claiming this- but other than Plaid shipping first on the S/X refresh can't think of any time THAT was actually true.... (and it's not even true of the S/X if you consider there was a higher trim they just decided to cancel)

Perhaps "highest range" first, not highest trim...though plaid switch was a huge disappointment.

 

[chiptoe]

Agree. When is the last time Tesla launched a product with the lowest trim level first? Hint: Never. They always release the highest end trim first since it helps keep margins up while depreciating a *sugar* ton of expenditures for new equipment lines.

well, except for the M3 which was long range RWD at first (basically middle of the trim levels)

 

[Todd Burch]

You did it, Jim!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680933243745456131

Jim Cramer, automotive expert, comparing to a car whose specs and pricing aren't even known yet.

Cramer is a hack. Seriously, who sits around waiting for Jim Cramer's opinion on a car? lol.