Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Good move! Margerine is bad for your Financial Health. Butter to get the real thing!
Cheers to the Good Stuff!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Good move! Margerine is bad for your Financial Health. Butter to get the real thing!
Cheers to the Good Stuff!
The fact that there were no details (like skid marks to determine who was over the line, and no mention if Autopilot was involved) leaves the reader to imagine the worst possible scenario with highest FUD factor.
My suspicion is that the Tesla didn't even have autopilot because it wasn't stated specifically. And if sleep was the cause, there's a good chance the Tesla would have corrected (if option selected). Subaru would not self correct, only warn.
"Subaru's EyeSight™ system integrates adaptive cruise control, pre-collision braking, and vehicle lane departure warning."
All other things even, odds are slightly in Tesla's favor. Video please... but not until after Earnings of course.
For Those who likes to read Elon tea leaf before earnings.
H
How much would that weigh and the cost of that many cells?
It stand to reason that a 500 mile CT won’t happen anytime soon.
He says - quite correctly- that a 500 mile range would need 230 kWh and that can only be fit as a double layer stacked on top of each other.
How much would that weigh and the cost of that many cells?
It stand to reason that a 500 mile CT won’t happen anytime soon.
This is a good thread in which to discuss the topic:-
IS Towing with the CT going to be practical?
So the goal is extended range while towing, and basically comes down to either of two methods. Both would involve extra battery storage (weight) in the trailer, so that is not a difference. The difference would be motors in the trailer or not? One seems to create more complex problems that...
teslamotorsclub.com
I think there will eventually be a Cybertruck trim that does a good job of towing. My rationale is that towing is literally a requirement for the vehicle.
The gap will probably be closed in multiple ways, a 350 Mile CT might only have a 50% range reduction while towing, but I guess that partially depends on what is being towed, and I'm not sure how that will be achieved.
The the next question is what range do those towing actually want or need?
I think the answer here is 200 miles minimum.
So a CT with a towing range of 200 miles might have a range of 400-450 miles when not towing.
I see the argument as similar to the argument about the Tesla Semi, when a Tesla vehicle is designed with a particular job in mind, it normally performs that task well.
However, I do expect the Roadster to be slower that a Toyota Corolla.
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Yes, very much the case:
After failing to overturn an election expected to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels, conservative industry groups last year managed to get future votes canceled and tightened their grip over the process used to develop new building codes.
The Biden administration protested, along with dozens of major cities, but the battle over a critical tool for shrinking the fourth-largest source of the United States’ climate-changing emissions got little attention.
[truncated]
Source:
A Battle Over Building Codes May Be The Most Important Climate Fight You’ve Never Heard Of
Big polluters tightened control over the nation’s building codes last year. Now fresh meddling from a gas utility has stoked fears for the future.
As a reminder, the sooner Tesla Home HVAC shows up, the better.
So many homes could benefit from the transition to heat pumps, and all the planet would benefit from the removal of the methane meter at the side of the house . . . .
StapleGun
Member
Yikes. You're right, not sure why I was sure the split happened in Q1 23. My bad! Nice estimating and nice compilation/chart.Tesla's 3 for 1 stock split happened on August 25, 2022. There is nothing to multiply or change in any of these quarters:
These 3 quarters happened after the stock split. However, Q2 2022 happened before the stock split. Therefore all estimates and errors by all analysts for Q2 2022 are divided by 3 to make them comparable to more recent quarters, Tesla does the same.
- Q3 2022
- Q4 2022
- Q1 2023
Tesla's shareholder letter used to say that the EPS for Q2 2022 was $2.27 but more recent shareholder letters show $0.76. In other words, Tesla is dividing the 2.27 by 3 and showing us what the EPS would have been with the current share count.
That makes perfect sense because EPS did not suddenly drop from $2.27 in Q2 2022 to $1.05 in Q3 2022.
We are not multiplying the current EPS numbers and current estimates or errors by 3. They stay the same. Instead, the actual EPS number and all estimates and errors for Q2 2022 by all retail analysts are divided by 3 to make that quarter comparable to more recent quarters. The actual number for Q2 2022 was $2.27 at the time but it's now $0.76.
Tiger
Active Member
Great Tesla ad
The Al books a Tesla sales meeting
The Al books a Tesla sales meeting
The Accountant
Active Member
RE: Auto Margins ex Credits
Interesting CNBC now stating 16.9% is the consensus while Dan Ives comments that 17.5% is the line in the sand.
I've attached the estimates from the Twitter forecasters.
Interesting CNBC now stating 16.9% is the consensus while Dan Ives comments that 17.5% is the line in the sand.
I've attached the estimates from the Twitter forecasters.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Another OEM adopts NACS.
I hadn’t seen this so thanks. The building industry and local building codes needs serious flexibility to allow adjustment to environmental changes.Yes, very much the case:
After failing to overturn an election expected to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels, conservative industry groups last year managed to get future votes canceled and tightened their grip over the process used to develop new building codes.
The Biden administration protested, along with dozens of major cities, but the battle over a critical tool for shrinking the fourth-largest source of the United States’ climate-changing emissions got little attention.
[truncated]
Source:
A Battle Over Building Codes May Be The Most Important Climate Fight You’ve Never Heard Of
Big polluters tightened control over the nation’s building codes last year. Now fresh meddling from a gas utility has stoked fears for the future.www.huffpost.com
As a reminder, the sooner Tesla Home HVAC shows up, the better.
So many homes could benefit from the transition to heat pumps, and all the planet would benefit from the removal of the methane meter at the side of the house . . . .
Heat pumps integrated into water heating as well as space heating. Condensers pulling pollutant-free drinking water from the air. Much thicker wall, natural coatings and much more heavily based on electricity alone.
I would love to find the CT comes with a water dispenser (condenser based) as well as bio-defense air filtering.
"Margin trough"...hmm...is this from the same "book of wonders" that gave us "twitter overhang"?
Really inventive language.
They can't just say "We have no idea how to value a company like Tesla as they break our nice little OLD models"
Not forgetting that Zach told us to concentrate on net earnings rather than gross
jkirkwood001
Active Member
After the big announcement, Elon skipped - what, ONE earnings call? Today would be good maybe. I really don't wanna hear about Twitter or FSD.
Speaking of which, who did that really useful and fun bingo card last time?
Speaking of which, who did that really useful and fun bingo card last time?
Except Twitter overhang was a negative, margin trough indicates this quarter is as low as it will ever be. In other words, even if it's low, the trajectory going forward will be upward (not declining further).
Buy the final dip?
How are people so certain that margins have troughed? Tesla used car prices continue to go down, at a higher right than other brands.
In fact, it actually accelerating downwards again in the last two months. $1000 drop in just the last two weeks. The correlation between Model Y list prices and this curve has been shown to be strong, so I would bet another round of price cuts in the U.S might be coming.
In fact, it actually accelerating downwards again in the last two months. $1000 drop in just the last two weeks. The correlation between Model Y list prices and this curve has been shown to be strong, so I would bet another round of price cuts in the U.S might be coming.
GhostSkater
Member
He is me lol
2500 cells for 216 kWh, 887 kg in cells and at $100/kWh it is $21600 in cells alone
We can also try to extrapolate pack weight from the ratio of cells to pack weight from other Tesla vehicles, which is around 1.4, so 1240 kg or 2733 lbs, thick boy
With more recent discussions it might be possible that Tesla can get to 500 miles with a sub 200 kWh pack. Model X is rated at 287 Wh/mi EPA, and with recent pictures side by side I think it's fair that assume Cybertruck will consume 25% more, or 360 Wh/mi EPA, which would mean a 180 kWh pack for 500 miles of range
Just as a bit more data for the comparison above, Model S has 15% less frontal area and it's 15% more efficient, there is also a 9% weight difference built into that
Cybertruck has around 11% more frontal area than a Model X, add more weight and worse drag coefficient and 25% more consumption seems reasonable if not quite conservative
All in all, if they can do 180 kWh, improve cell to pack weight ratio and get the 4680s cost down to $70/kWh, the pack might weight as "little" 960 kg or 2116 lbs and cost $12600 in cells
Add the $45/kWh IRA credit at a 500 mile Cybertruck pack might cost Tesla less than $5000, even if there is none of the improvement above and the pack ends up being huge, the credits will still make it costing less than $12000 in cells
Seems reasonable to sell that for $80k, or at least makes me confident that the lower range version but not the lowest will be bellow the $80k cap for the IRA credit
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