Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

But you don't HAVE to trade in- today you can private-sale your FSD car and get something for it. That goes away with this deal.

Like I said:

If planning on trading in your car anyway, you end up with a better deal.

Clause 4 covers the new vehicle...which FSD is being transfered on to- but can not be transfered AGAIN--- not even if you sell it privately.
That's a flat out worse version of FSD than you have now, because your current version DOES go with the vehicle if you sell it privately today.

Worse than what you have on your current car, but not worse than the version you would be leaving with post trade in, which is none without the transfer.

 

[Knightshade]

That said, regardless of the minutiae of how the various clauses were/are written, the intent is to get you and me to buy a new car when Tesla’s assumption is the only reason you and I are hanging onto our current one is because you and I don’t want to have to pay for FSD a second time.

I think if that was ALL this was Tesla wouldn't change the terms of FSD ownership on you as part of the "deal"- it'd just be moving the exact FSD you have now from old car to new instead of doing the FUSC thing and creating a new class of "lifetime" that's far more limited.

Further they wouldn't require you to take delivery of your new car by Sept 30th, especially when for most people going 3 to 3 it means they won't be getting a refreshed/HW4 car in the deal either.


As a tangent, another thing that'd make it more compelling to encourage older 3 owners to trade up- besides fixing the 2 above- would be to offer to also transfer any other software-only options they've got (acceleration boost for example) from old car to new.... because that's another thing I'd get $0 for if trading in my old one and have to pay $2000 out of pocket to add back to the new one.

 

[navguy12]

I think if that was ALL this was Tesla wouldn't change the terms of FSD ownership on you as part of the "deal"- it'd just be moving the exact FSD you have now from old car to new instead of doing the FUSC thing and creating a new class of "lifetime" that's far more limited.

Further they wouldn't require you to take delivery of your new car by Sept 30th, especially when for most people going 3 to 3 it means they won't be getting a refreshed/HW4 car in the deal either.


As a tangent, another thing that'd make it more compelling to encourage older 3 owners to trade up- besides fixing the 2 above- would be to offer to also transfer any other software-only options they've got (acceleration boost for example) from old car to new.... because that's another thing I'd get $0 for if trading in my old one and have to pay $2000 out of pocket to add back to the new one.

And I think it’s to impel current FSD owning people to trade in if the thought of having to re-fork out $15k (or whatever it actually costs today) for FSD was the ONLY reason they were hanging onto the older vehicle.

 

[Singuy]

ONLY because Elon never kept his promise to offer reasonable value for FSD on a trade in.

But you don't HAVE to trade in- today you can private-sale your FSD car and get something for it. That goes away with this deal.





Yeah if you trade. But not private sale.


Clause 3 covers the old vehicle.
There you agree Tesla will remove it from that old vehicle, so it can't be "sold" if you choose to sell that vehicle- because it's no longer ON that vehicle. It mentions trading in as an option here- but NOT a requirement.

Clause 4 covers the new vehicle...which FSD is being transfered on to- but can not be transfered AGAIN--- not even if you sell it privately.
That's a flat out worse version of FSD than you have now, because your current version DOES go with the vehicle if you sell it privately today.



Old: Sell car privately, FSD goes with it and you get whatever FSD is worth to the used car buyer. FSD absolutely goes to whoever buys your car and you got SOMETHING of value for it when selling the car.

New: Old car loses FSD, new car gets it. But new car doesn't KEEP it if you sell it privately later- you get nothing back for it in the end when getting rid of the car.







See above. Decouple is clause 3, what happens on the new car is 4. There's no reason to mention not transferring in a private sale in clause 4 unless they're changing the nature of FSD STAYING with the new VIN after it has been transferred to the new car.


As someone else mentioned- this is the same thing they did with lifetime supercharging.

Originally it meant lifetime of the car. In private sale it went with the car. Just like FSD did

Later lifetime supercharging was just the lifetime of the original ownership of the car- and once it went to someone else, even in private sale, you lost it. The "new" transferred FSD reads the same way....thus making it a "worse" version because you lose the ability to get any $ from it via private sale in the future.









AFAIK retooling is expected to be the Highland update on Model 3--- it is NOT the next-gen vehicle, which will have initial production in the new factory in Mexico.

Frankly if hw4 is required to solve fsd, your old fsd is not worth anything and resale value of any hw4 car without fsd software would supercede whatever you guys are complaining about anyways. Or you can wait for a 50 dollar class action check.

 

[Knightshade]

And I think it’s to impel current FSD owning people to trade in if the thought of having to re-fork out $15k (or whatever it actually costs today) for FSD was the ONLY reason they were hanging onto the older vehicle.

Sure... I'm just not sure there's a TON of folks in that bucket? Especially when they'd be getting the pre-refresh one.... so the tradeoffs (other than getting a fresh warranty) are somewhat hit and miss.... (heat pump, but no USS or default homelink or adjustable lumbar or center-console data ports for example... and anyone with things like accel boost or PPF are out thousands of bucks to get those on the new one as well)

Frankly if hw4 is required to solve fsd, your old fsd is not worth anything

It is worth something because Tesla promised me my car as purchased was enough to do it.

Then when it turns out it wasn't they gave me a free HW3 upgrade.

if it's still not enough they pretty clearly still owe me what they promised.

(buyers after March 2019 are not in this position, as they were promised far less... but those before then are)

and resale value of any hw4 car without fsd software would supercede whatever you guys are complaining about anyways. Or you can wait for a 50 dollar class action check.

If they utterly fail to deliver what's promised the check is gonna be a lot bigger than $50. At bare minimum it'd be what I paid for FSD plus interest- and there's a pretty solid chance it'd be what FSD cost at settlement on a new (actually has working FSD) car... or have an alternative of exactly this type of new-car transfers but with a lot better terms too.


I mean even the EAP people, who got EVERYTHING they were promised in their purchase, but it was a few months late, got more than $50


Anyway to avoid mod ire, this topic might be better here?

FSD Transfer

Link to your data? Or you are just jumping to conclusions?

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Southpasfan]

Sure... I'm just not sure there's a TON of folks in that bucket? Especially when they'd be getting the pre-refresh one.... so the tradeoffs (other than getting a fresh warranty) are somewhat hit and miss.... (heat pump, but no USS or default homelink for example)





It is worth something because Tesla promised me my car as purchased was enough to do it.

Then when it turns out it wasn't they gave me a free HW3 upgrade.

if it's still not enough they pretty clearly still owe me what they promised.

(buyers after March 2019 are not in this position, as they were promised far less... but those before then are)




If they utterly fail to deliver what's promised the check is gonna be a lot bigger than $50. At bare minimum it'd be what I paid for FSD plus interest- and there's a pretty solid chance it'd be what FSD cost at settlement on a new (actually has working FSD) car... or have an alternative of exactly this type of new-car transfers but with a lot better terms too.


I mean even the EAP people, who got EVERYTHING they were promised in their purchase, but it was a few months late, got more than $50


Anyway to avoid mod ire, this topic might be better here?

FSD Transfer

Link to your data? Or you are just jumping to conclusions?

teslamotorsclub.com

More on topic, I feel, as an FSDb user, that I am an investor with almost inside information, I can see this is going to eventually work. So my ownership of TSLA will be worth more to me than FSD.

But as to the worth of FSD:

1. I looked at the take rate of an estimated 9%, shouldn't they lower the price and reap the $ now?.
2. If the price is lower this whole "go with the car v. transfer" issue fades away. The car buying public is used to paying $6K for something worth $3K or less when they trade or sell their car. It would not even be worth discussion.
3. Isn't the first level of value passive accident avoidance? Maybe to the level of really saving a severe accident, but even to the level of "Teslas do not have small fender benders" PS, big value in the Tesla Semi, where even with the supervising driver all of a sudden it is way safer, thus lowering liability for big rigs.
4. Far before robo-taxis, isn't the next level of value (of which we are almost there) being the best fwy driver assist system bar none?
5. Are people really going to use a car as a robo-taxi? I wouldn't, although I would use one Tesla for me and my wife. But that does not sell more Teslas, it sells one less other car.
6. Ok, so my car can drive itself. Its not really robo-taxi revenue, its just that I send the car to pick up to-go orders. How much is that really worth?

As I look over this the biggest value is lowering the price and getting more people to buy it as it exists.

 

[GrandEnigma]

$152 at $640ea ? for real or some decimals missing?

Total cost per option.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

More on topic, I feel, as an FSDb user, that I am an investor with almost inside information, I can see this is going to eventually work. So my ownership of TSLA will be worth more to me than FSD.

But as to the worth of FSD:

1. I looked at the take rate of an estimated 9%, shouldn't they lower the price and reap the $ now?.
2. If the price is lower this whole "go with the car v. transfer" issue fades away. The car buying public is used to paying $6K for something worth $3K or less when they trade or sell their car. It would not even be worth discussion.
3. Isn't the first level of value passive accident avoidance? Maybe to the level of really saving a severe accident, but even to the level of "Teslas do not have small fender benders" PS, big value in the Tesla Semi, where even with the supervising driver all of a sudden it is way safer, thus lowering liability for big rigs.
4. Far before robo-taxis, isn't the next level of value (of which we are almost there) being the best fwy driver assist system bar none?
5. Are people really going to use a car as a robo-taxi? I wouldn't, although I would use one Tesla for me and my wife. But that does not sell more Teslas, it sells one less other car.
6. Ok, so my car can drive itself. Its not really robo-taxi revenue, its just that I send the car to pick up to-go orders. How much is that really worth?

As I look over this the biggest value is lowering the price and getting more people to buy it as it exists.

I think seniors who have or are going to lose their license for medical reasons will find value in FSD. We are a ways away from that but are confident that by the time we get there we will be able to keep our independence and not have to deal with cabs, Uber type services etc. And many people in that age bracket will be able to afford FSD as well…probably.

Jmho.

 

[Southpasfan]

I think seniors who have or are going to lose their license for medical reasons will find value in FSD. We are a ways away from that but are confident that by the time we get there we will be able to keep our independence and not have to deal with cabs, Uber type services etc. And many people in that age bracket will be able to afford FSD as well…probably.

Jmho.

Thats more than just a good opinion, its a great point.

I'm just also interested in all the brain power on this board as to what it means to the company.

Frankly, the more I think about it, perfected FSD really is a product that results in humanity needing fewer cars. Tesla is odd in many ways, but to be in the forefront of developing the product that results in a need for fewer cars is odd.

That's why I think its better for the company to make it a part of every car. Just take $6K in free revenue per car and declare victory. I don't like, or get, Elon saying that without FSD the company is worthless or whatever it was he said.

Tesla will end up licensing it though, but won't it take any legacy company like a minimum of five years from today to produce a car which can use the Tesla hardware? Its not the equivalent of inventing the airbag.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maximum pain is currently $260 and it looks like we are going to get there eventually.

Yeah, "eventually" (like "eternity") takes about 6 hrs on Wall St. They don't hesitate, they run for the exits. Remember the NASDAQ-100 'rebalancing'? That's in full swing now too, with an estimated $2.4B of net flows out of TSLA by the July 24th rebalancing date.

I've mentioned this before: shortzes and hedgies pwn TSLA. The only reason they let it run up is so they can short it back down again. Best part? They're not a criminal enterprise: not when they write the rules.

Wall St. has an infamously short memory, like last month when wild fire smoke choked off Manhattan. If they continue to get their way, and kill off green companies that have even the potential to displace our massive carbon addition, then its well howdy... can u breath $$?

The uptick rule comes into force once TSLA gets below $262.13. So it's unlikely we see $260 today.

Yeah, the "uptick rule" only restricts short-selling below the current "national best price". Shortzes can still cap the SP at current levels. Then when ever genuine shares are sold (such as by index funds due to the NASDAQ-100 'rebalancing', the "national best price" continues to go down.

IMO This is what we are seeing today in the A/hrs session. Here's the "Magnificent 7" vs, the "Top 10" on the NASDAQ-100 index (NDX) as of 8:00 pm ET today: (they "7" are all down, adding macro headwinds to TSLA FUD) - planned to perfection, Wall-E.

Nasdaq 100 QQQ Components​

#	Company	Symbol	Weight	Price	Chg	% Chg
1	Microsoft Corp	MSFT	13.094	346.56	-8.52	(-2.40%)
2	Apple Inc	AAPL	12.055	192.97	-2.13	(-1.09%)
3	NVIDIA Corp	NVDA	7.486	451.02	-19.70	(-4.20%)
4	Amazon.com Inc	AMZN	6.704	130.93	-4.44	(-3.28%)
5	Tesla Inc	TSLA	4.573	260.58	-30.70	(-10.53%)
6	Meta Platforms Inc	META	4.405	300.40	-15.60	(-4.94%)
7	Alphabet Inc	GOOGL	3.686	119.63	-2.40	(-1.97%)
8	Alphabet Inc	GOOG	3.585	120.09	-2.69	(-2.19%)
9	Broadcom Inc	AVGO	2.404	888.50	-12.90	(-1.43%)
10	PepsiCo Inc	PEP	1.622	190.20	3.94	(2.12%)
11	Costco Wholesale Corp	COST	1.567	557.51	3.40	(0.61%)

 

[gtrplyr1]

..................... or, how about $260

Well, lets see what happens in the next couple of trading sessions but I won't be shocked if we start trading back up around $280 give or take a few bucks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I found another couch out back. Is this the dip?

When Tesla lifts the GPS-blockers around Giga Shanghai so that Wu Wa can fly his drones again, we'll know that "Project Highland" is complete and the refreshed Model 3 is in production.

Did you notice that Tesla paid Giga Shanghai staff a wage bonus in Q2? I'll leave it to you to estimate the eqivalent number of weeks of Line 1 Q3 downtime Tesla was expecting as of June 30th... Something no Wall-E borker is capable of understanding.

I say it is, just for today.

View attachment 958053

Impressive! You waited all of 2 whole minutes from then time you asked your question on this board until you told us here that u already bought.

I once had a girl-friend who showed a similar style of reasoning: she'd say "Why shouldn't I?" then pout for 2 seconds during which time nothing came into her **** head, then immediately do whatever she damn well wanted in the first place. Emotions only.

I don't really miss her, but I do enjoy the ocassional giggle at her "thought process".

 

[MartinAustin]

Respectfully, with this kind of attitude which can only be described as childish gambling approach, I am surprised you posted this kind of question.

What answer do you expect to get? We can't even be "super-confident" there will be tomorrow, yet you want us to give you the stonk trend?

I decided that TSLA would be manipulated downward, and to buy after that. Got a bunch after-hours for $261.

(I see it has continued lower )

 

[Todd Burch]

10% down is noise, boise (and goilse). I’m here for the big bucks which will make those $400s of the 2021s look like peanuts.

 

[navguy12]

Yeah, "eventually" (like "eternity") takes about 6 hrs on Wall St. They don't hesitate, they run for the exits. Remember the NASDAQ-100 'rebalancing'? That's in full swing now too, with an estimated $2.4B of net flows out of TSLA by the July 24th rebalancing date.

View attachment 958194

I've mentioned this before: shortzes and hedgies pwn TSLA. The only reason they let it run up is so they can short it back down again. Best part? They're not a criminal enterprise: not when they write the rules.

Wall St. has an infamously short memory, like last month when wild fire smoke choked off Manhattan. If they continue to get their way, and kill off green companies that have even the potential to displace our massive carbon addition, then its well howdy... can u breath $$?



Yeah, the "uptick rule" only restricts short-selling below the current "national best price". Shortzes can still cap the SP at current levels. Then when ever genuine shares are sold (such as by index funds due to the NASDAQ-100 'rebalancing', the "national best price" continues to go down.

IMO This is what we are seeing today in the A/hrs session. Here's the "Magnificent 7" vs, the "Top 10" on the NASDAQ-100 index (NDX) as of 8:00 pm ET today: (they "7" are all down, adding macro headwinds to TSLA FUD) - planned to perfection, Wall-E.

Nasdaq 100 QQQ Components​

#	Company	Symbol	Weight	Price	Chg	% Chg
1	Microsoft Corp	MSFT	13.094	346.56	-8.52	(-2.40%)
2	Apple Inc	AAPL	12.055	192.97	-2.13	(-1.09%)
3	NVIDIA Corp	NVDA	7.486	451.02	-19.70	(-4.20%)
4	Amazon.com Inc	AMZN	6.704	130.93	-4.44	(-3.28%)
5	Tesla Inc	TSLA	4.573	260.58	-30.70	(-10.53%)
6	Meta Platforms Inc	META	4.405	300.40	-15.60	(-4.94%)
7	Alphabet Inc	GOOGL	3.686	119.63	-2.40	(-1.97%)
8	Alphabet Inc	GOOG	3.585	120.09	-2.69	(-2.19%)
9	Broadcom Inc	AVGO	2.404	888.50	-12.90	(-1.43%)
10	PepsiCo Inc	PEP	1.622	190.20	3.94	(2.12%)
11	Costco Wholesale Corp	COST	1.567	557.51	3.40	(0.61%)

The smoke in Manhattan comment reminded me of this:

 

[phoggy123]

So I agree that the new terms of this seem to devalue the existing FSD license. I always try to look at both sides to see any perspectives if I am upset/disappointed.

But what if (highly unlikely but just saying) Version 12 hits...it's basically robotaxi (highly unlikely but just saying), and you have your new car with HW4 that has better cameras and everything. IMO this allows the Tesla Network/robotaxi to hit the ground running even quicker with all of us footing the bill for the software and increased ownership of HW4 cars.

So If I own this vehicle, get tired of being the sole user, couldn't I just lend it out to the Robotaxi network and let it work for me like a prior house I made into a rental? Obviously in my analogy the house doesnt lose the ability to sell the basement with the house the second time but none the less I have no incentive to sell the house unless I need the cash or its not worth the effort (this is possible too).

If the end state is a driverless Taxi, and I want a new vehicle...I would probably just lend it out rather than taking the cash anyways. I can almost guarantee that once the robotaxi actually comes to fruition (if ever...just saying) would Tesla even bother selling this software to individuals there by making this moot? But even then the owned license becomes more valuable similar to that of a Taxi Medallion....so I guess I am back to square one.

 

[EVWatcher]

My hunch is the retooling is for Highland M3 most likely. Which is an update to the current M3, but not a total overhaul so I'd think ramping production afterwards should go quickly and smoothly.

I'll be terribly disappointed if the retooling is NOT for Highland M3.

Maybe I’m out of the loop but that doesn’t mean much to me. I know highland is alledgidly the refreshed 3. Is that a gen 3 platform?

If they are shutting down all the factories it can’t just be for the 3 can it? Texas and Berlin don’t make 3s do they?

 

[Nocturnal]

If the end state is a driverless Taxi, and I want a new vehicle...I would probably just lend it out rather than taking the cash anyways. I can almost guarantee that once the robotaxi actually comes to fruition (if ever...just saying) would Tesla even bother selling this software to individuals there by making this moot? But even then the owned license becomes more valuable similar to that of a Taxi Medallion....so I guess I am back to square one.

That has been debated quite a bit. I question if they would reduce how many cars they sell in general. That will come down to production capacity vs demand for robotaxis. Depends on when you think RTs happen I suppose.

Possible they still sell the software and just take say 40% of the revenue. That would be an ok model from their end. Or they stop selling FSD and make it subscription only.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If the news that Q3 might be a bit less robust, does that mean the SP should drop 9%?

Let's be clear that was NOT the news, Elon said "production" could be lower, not "deliveries".

For those who follow Brian White on the "My Tesla Weekend" channel on Youtube, he told us about 10 days ago to expect lower production in Q3 due to "Project Highland" (released to his 'Paytreons' on July 3rd). Brian predicted about 6K lower production at Fremont (he seems to have forgot about Shanghai). Even that's easily made up w. higher deliveries in Q3 from Tesla's 16 days of inventory (~75K cars total, mostly in transit or already as showroom cars).

To Brian's shagrin, the Market didn't care: (proves that "Patreon" only tips off the Shortzes)

Q2 Earnings FUD - Why are we listening to the dumbest people in the world? | Brian White predicted lower Q3 production on July 3rd for his Patreons (later posted on YT)​

Elon knew this, yet tossed red meat to the shortzes in his opening statement on the conf. call. Why? He's likely frustrated with how stupid Wall-E is (obvious already to anybody who watches Youtube and has more than 2 brain cells to rub together).

E's likely also annoyed that analcysts only want to talk about boring *sugar* like line upgrades (which they sensationalize as 'factory shutdowns' - it's not: only the Model 3 lines at just 2 of 4 factories are affected). Instead, Elon wants to talk about his passion: FSD & AI. Well, that's why Zack should be doing the conf. calls, so Elon can Elon... IMO.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

4680 Gen II is still not ready but at least Tesla found other ways to increase the energy density by 10 % vs Gen I (Goal for Gen II was approx. 20 %).

I was disapointed by Elon sometimes not answering the questions, but maybe he took one for the team and the chatter is now about Elon behaving bad (and less about the risk of a slower than expected ramp of 4680 production in the next quarters

Why are you talking about Elon? Drew Baglino told us this on the conf. call:

"Yes. First, I’ll just start with a little bit of a production update. So, in Texas, 4680 cell production increased 80% Q2 over Q1, and the team surpassed 10 million production cells produced here in Texas. So, congrats to the team for that. Their focus on yield reduced our scrap bill by 40% quarter-over-quarter, and that resulted in a 25% reduction in cell COGS.​

​

Here in Texas, we’re preparing to launch our Cybertruck cell, which is 10% higher energy density than current production. That was accomplished through process and mechanical design optimization. As we scale Cyber cell production through the end of the year and early next, we should be in a comfortable place on cost per cell.​

​

"Against our battery energy density targets, the Cyber cell is at our expectations on a like-for-like electrochemistry basis. We’re yet to integrate silicon or in-house cathode production, both reviewed on Battery Day, which do bring significant further energy density and cost improvements, but that is a topic for another day.​

​

"Lastly, it is important to remember that most of what we focused on at Battery Day was the Tesla-engineered 4680 production system and the improvements we strove to achieve on equipment, factory density, capital cost and utility cost reduction, all of which we are realizing in our Texas scale up to date."​

There is no 'delay' in the 4680, it's proceeding according to plan explained publicly over a year ago. The Cathode Plant must be producing cathode at sufficient scale before they can economically produce cells enough cells to start mass production of Cybertruck, with it's massive battery pack.

Why do people keep insisting that Tesla make bricks without straw? (ie: cells w/o cathode). Elon isn't Moses, and Texas isn't the Promised Land. Enough, already. CT and 4680s will arrive at scale in 2024Q1, just as they told us, here on Earth, made by Humans.