Oh it's still an anti EV Fud angle omitting the 2024 availability of supercharger access with adapter, urging to delay buying an EV until 2025, probably banking on their 'I would never buy an Elon car' campaigns having divided off a significant amount of potential converts.I appear to have woken up in a different universe, apparently here bussinessinsider is pro Tesla?
Don't buy any electric car but a Tesla right now
Most automakers are switching to Tesla's charging standard, so there's no reason to buy a competing model until the shift is complete.www.businessinsider.com
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Tesla should have just reached out to me. I would have driven a CT for them anywhere, no cost.
IIRC, Tesla introduced the Kato Road plant on battery day as a “Pilot” production line, with nominal capacity of 10 GWh/year. Its purpose was to test designs for new production equipment and cells. Tesla said “production lines” would have a nominal capacity of 20 GWh/year. At a later date, Tesla increased the production line capacity to 25 GWh/year.
Tesla has offically announced 100 GWh/year capacity for Austin, Berlin, and the Nevada GF1 expansion. CTO Drew stated on a quarterly earnings call that Austin had one 4680 production line running and would install three more lines to get to full 100 GWh/year capacity. IIRC.
GSP
You mean you would have paid Tesla to drive a CT anywhereTesla should have just reached out to me. I would have driven a CT for them anywhere, no cost.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Thank you.
If they do intend to get 100 GWh per factory of in-house 4680 cells then that implies 1.25m vehicles/year for each factory assuming average 80 kWh packs, and no external supply. As we know the external supply (LFP) is in fact scaling faster than the internal 4680 supply (phew).
Hopefully they'll soon give all shareholders an equal update on the situation at some point. That would be really nice. Otherwise 2024 is going to have a lot of shareholders doing a lot of nail-biting.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It seems pretty clear to me one of Teslas goals with this program is to try and reduce the # of people in the "We promised them L4 or better on existing HW" group, which are FSD buyers from ~Oct 2016 through ~March 2019- and instead move them into the "we never promised more than L2" group of everyone who bought FSD ~April 2019 and later.
That's part of why I'm not taking advantage of the trade in here... and eventually they'll need to deal with the remainder of those left behind in that group to whom they fail to deliver what they promised.
There is of course. It's been discussed pretty extensively multiple times in the FSD areas (including the fact Tesla ran out of single-node in-car compute several years ago, being forced to spill the code across both nodes to get even the far-from-L4 FSDb we have today on HW3- so redundancy mentioned at the original AI day, and absolutely needed for an L4 or better car to safely operate, has been out the window for a long time now--- folks in the FSD forums dismiss this with magical thinking that Tesla will somehow add vast capability and complexity to the code that isn't there now AND also reduce the amount of compute needed to do it by >50% somehow to make it all fit into a single node on HW3- that magical thinking is what there's no evidence of being so)
They'd probably need to give them more than that- at minimum full refund with interest, potentially more if buyers can present evidence their purchase of the vehicle was primarily based on the promise of L4 or better... and especially if a lawsuit over it would open Tesla to potentially embarrassing discovery about their own internal discussions of when they knew HW2 or HW3 weren't enough)--- really the easiest option for Tesla at that point (a point where they DO have working L4 on HWx where X is not currently known, since nobody including Tesla actually knows how much is enough until they achieve it) would be a new transfer program with more generous terms for the folks still in the 2016-3/2019 group.
Anyway as always these discussions are best done (and in the case of evidence HW3 ain't enough already have been, repeatedly) somewhere over here:
AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD
Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.
teslamotorsclub.com
Whew! Was getting worried about this for a while now /s
www.tesmanian.com
Tesla Giga Berlin no Longer Under Investigation in Hazardous Materials Warehouse Case
The prosecutor's office closed the investigation against those responsible in the Tesla Giga Berlin on suspicion of unauthorized operation of a warehouse of hazardous materials. The circumstances of the violation make it possible to close the case if compensation for it is paid on time.
www.tesmanian.com
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Looks like employees are testing FSDb 11.4.6
www.notateslaapp.com
Tesla’s overall pace of iteration / innovation is one of the reasons I HODL.
2023.7.26 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates
Tesla software update 2023.7.26 (FSD Beta 11.4.6) includes FSD Beta v11.4.6.
www.notateslaapp.com
Tesla’s overall pace of iteration / innovation is one of the reasons I HODL.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Thank you. I will be looking out the window till it arrives.
I knew elon would make up for making me wait so long...
It's Sunday. Altough not directly Tesla related, here's a nice video on AI Driven Design and how AI impacts design/production manufacturing.
Those who follow Tesla, will love to watch this video:
Those who follow Tesla, will love to watch this video:
Captkerosene
Member
Panasonic recently abandoned the 4680 format in their new plant in Oklahoma as I recall. Given all of the benefits of the 4680, they must not have been convinced that the production problems were going to be resolved in a timely matter.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Huh?
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/7QZEIR2R4ZOJFNELIBQJG3RMQQ.jpg)
Panasonic needs four more EV battery plants, executive says
The battery arm of Japan's Panasonic will need to build four more factories to reach its target for a sharp boost in annual capacity of batteries for electric vehicles by 2031, its technology chief told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
That's from a couple weeks ago
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Family trip from Toronto to Prince Edward Island (PEI) a grand success. Canada is a beautiful country.
Took our 2018 Model 3 LR with 51k kms odometer (485km range which is only 7.6% degradation of battery from new).
3974km over nine days (equal to The White House, Washington DC to Miami, Florida and back, or Paris, France to Naples, Italy and back).
Saved $588 in transportation costs (compared with our ICE 20mpg vehicle), Our EV was 3.5X less expensive than ICE.
Prevented 1070kg of CO2 emissions being thrown into our atmosphere.
I live in a neighbourhood which has at least one Tesla on every street. Teslas are everywhere here, so I was quite shocked in my findings on the road.
East of Quebec City, Quebec, EVs are very rare, in the neighbourhood of one to every 250 to 300 vehicles I saw. We spent three days in PEI and I could count all the EVs I saw using my hands. Anyone thinking EVs will overtake ICE anytime soon is mistaken. This transition will take many more years than what my neighbourhood tells me. It felt like 2018 again as strangers would ask me about my EV and take photos of it.
On the flipside, EV chargers are very plentiful compared to EVs. Most exits off the major highways have EV chargers. Many of the Tesla Superchargers sites (every +-75km) also had third party charing sites. Almost all 3rd party sites were completely empty. Below photo is just South of Trois-Rivieres, Quebec.
It gets even better for charging. We were plugging in to 2 level charging sites at most destinations, whether beaches, Anne of Green Gables heritage site, motels, upscale hotels. If you look for them, they were near everywhere, and empty. We were leaving most places with a full charge. Many were free. At North Cape, PEI, the most Northern tip of PEI, before you hit the Atlantic Ocean, guess what, a GRIZZL EV charging, 30 amp, and was free. We spent three hours hiking the trails and walking the beach and added 120km.
While staying at Hotel-Musee Premieres Nations (highly recommended), just North of Quebec City, there were six FLO EV chargers that had yet to be connected, however the hotel also had two level 2 chargers. When I charged, I left a note on my dash stating "if anyone needs a charge, text me and I will vacate EV charging spot). Two hours later I received a text, went out to move my Tesla, and struck up a conversation with a Honda Clarity Plug-In owner. He said he had on order a Hyundai Ionic 5 and last heard still had a 12 month waiting period. I told him it would be worth the wait. Respect.
From Quebec City, Eastward out to PEI, every tenth vehicle on the highway was a loaded semi. The demand for Tesla semi is huge. Not sure why PEI (250km tip to tip) would not be perfect for EVs. They have huge amount of solar on residential homes, and good EV charging infrastructure. Used FLO charges at City Hall parking lot in Sumerside, PEI, across the street from our century home hotel were we stayed in PEI. The City had three GM Bolts with chargers on site.
I will leave my TMC friends with this image. The future? No, this is the present.
Took our 2018 Model 3 LR with 51k kms odometer (485km range which is only 7.6% degradation of battery from new).
3974km over nine days (equal to The White House, Washington DC to Miami, Florida and back, or Paris, France to Naples, Italy and back).
Saved $588 in transportation costs (compared with our ICE 20mpg vehicle), Our EV was 3.5X less expensive than ICE.
Prevented 1070kg of CO2 emissions being thrown into our atmosphere.
I live in a neighbourhood which has at least one Tesla on every street. Teslas are everywhere here, so I was quite shocked in my findings on the road.
East of Quebec City, Quebec, EVs are very rare, in the neighbourhood of one to every 250 to 300 vehicles I saw. We spent three days in PEI and I could count all the EVs I saw using my hands. Anyone thinking EVs will overtake ICE anytime soon is mistaken. This transition will take many more years than what my neighbourhood tells me. It felt like 2018 again as strangers would ask me about my EV and take photos of it.
On the flipside, EV chargers are very plentiful compared to EVs. Most exits off the major highways have EV chargers. Many of the Tesla Superchargers sites (every +-75km) also had third party charing sites. Almost all 3rd party sites were completely empty. Below photo is just South of Trois-Rivieres, Quebec.
It gets even better for charging. We were plugging in to 2 level charging sites at most destinations, whether beaches, Anne of Green Gables heritage site, motels, upscale hotels. If you look for them, they were near everywhere, and empty. We were leaving most places with a full charge. Many were free. At North Cape, PEI, the most Northern tip of PEI, before you hit the Atlantic Ocean, guess what, a GRIZZL EV charging, 30 amp, and was free. We spent three hours hiking the trails and walking the beach and added 120km.
While staying at Hotel-Musee Premieres Nations (highly recommended), just North of Quebec City, there were six FLO EV chargers that had yet to be connected, however the hotel also had two level 2 chargers. When I charged, I left a note on my dash stating "if anyone needs a charge, text me and I will vacate EV charging spot). Two hours later I received a text, went out to move my Tesla, and struck up a conversation with a Honda Clarity Plug-In owner. He said he had on order a Hyundai Ionic 5 and last heard still had a 12 month waiting period. I told him it would be worth the wait. Respect.
From Quebec City, Eastward out to PEI, every tenth vehicle on the highway was a loaded semi. The demand for Tesla semi is huge. Not sure why PEI (250km tip to tip) would not be perfect for EVs. They have huge amount of solar on residential homes, and good EV charging infrastructure. Used FLO charges at City Hall parking lot in Sumerside, PEI, across the street from our century home hotel were we stayed in PEI. The City had three GM Bolts with chargers on site.
I will leave my TMC friends with this image. The future? No, this is the present.
It’s false that Tesla has run out of compute on HW3.It seems pretty clear to me one of Teslas goals with this program is to try and reduce the # of people in the "We promised them L4 or better on existing HW" group, which are FSD buyers from ~Oct 2016 through ~March 2019- and instead move them into the "we never promised more than L2" group of everyone who bought FSD ~April 2019 and later.
That's part of why I'm not taking advantage of the trade in here... and eventually they'll need to deal with the remainder of those left behind in that group to whom they fail to deliver what they promised.
There is of course. It's been discussed pretty extensively multiple times in the FSD areas (including the fact Tesla ran out of single-node in-car compute several years ago, being forced to spill the code across both nodes to get even the far-from-L4 FSDb we have today on HW3- so redundancy mentioned at the original AI day, and absolutely needed for an L4 or better car to safely operate, has been out the window for a long time now--- folks in the FSD forums dismiss this with magical thinking that Tesla will somehow add vast capability and complexity to the code that isn't there now AND also reduce the amount of compute needed to do it by >50% somehow to make it all fit into a single node on HW3- that magical thinking is what there's no evidence of being so)
They'd probably need to give them more than that- at minimum full refund with interest, potentially more if buyers can present evidence their purchase of the vehicle was primarily based on the promise of L4 or better... and especially if a lawsuit over it would open Tesla to potentially embarrassing discovery about their own internal discussions of when they knew HW2 or HW3 weren't enough)--- really the easiest option for Tesla at that point (a point where they DO have working L4 on HWx where X is not currently known, since nobody including Tesla actually knows how much is enough until they achieve it) would be a new transfer program with more generous terms for the folks still in the 2016-3/2019 group.
Anyway as always these discussions are best done (and in the case of evidence HW3 ain't enough already have been, repeatedly) somewhere over here:
AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD
Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.
I don’t remember which video in particular, but James Douma debunked this very thoroughly, and he has WAY more credibility than posters in the FSD area.
Well yeah, they always have been. That's why here at FordMotorsClub.com we don't like Business Insider.I appear to have woken up in a different universe, apparently here bussinessinsider is pro Tesla?
Don't buy any electric car but a Tesla right now
Most automakers are switching to Tesla's charging standard, so there's no reason to buy a competing model until the shift is complete.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Place your bets, what Quarter&Year will the Model Y pass the F150 in the US?
has a discussion I just had on this topic. Key points:
Tesla will take out the F150 from two angles
and that is before Austin gets ramped up to full production.
Last 3 years of F150 US
https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/TSLA-Q2-2023-Update.pdf
between Fremont and Austin there is capacity for over 500,000 a year run rate of US Model Y already
Eventually (some time in 2024?) US production of Model Y at Fremont + Austin will be around 750,000 per year run rate.
So the question is will F150 US still be able to sell more than that? If F150 US stays above 500,000 it can hold them off 6-9 months ?, if F150 US can stay above 600,000 it buys them time on top of that that. If F150 US can stay above 700,000 it buys a little more time. But the only way they stay ahead is if they stay above 800,000 and keep growing even as Model Y + Cybertruck try to eat at their sales.
I'm saying F150 US drops and Model Y rises. Both are going to happen. Where/when will they cross? That I don't know.
Tesla will take out the F150 from two angles
- The production of Model Y will increase approaching F150 numbers.
- The sales of Cybertruck will decrease sales of the F150 bringing it back to a lower number, making it an assailable target.
and that is before Austin gets ramped up to full production.
Last 3 years of F150 US
- 2020 787,372
- 2021 726,003
- 2022 653,957
https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/TSLA-Q2-2023-Update.pdf
between Fremont and Austin there is capacity for over 500,000 a year run rate of US Model Y already
Eventually (some time in 2024?) US production of Model Y at Fremont + Austin will be around 750,000 per year run rate.
So the question is will F150 US still be able to sell more than that? If F150 US stays above 500,000 it can hold them off 6-9 months ?, if F150 US can stay above 600,000 it buys them time on top of that that. If F150 US can stay above 700,000 it buys a little more time. But the only way they stay ahead is if they stay above 800,000 and keep growing even as Model Y + Cybertruck try to eat at their sales.
I'm saying F150 US drops and Model Y rises. Both are going to happen. Where/when will they cross? That I don't know.
navguy12
Active Member
Awesome write up, thanks!
We head east in 3.5 weeks from Ottawa to near St Andrews NB for a week then to the south east tip of NS near Barrington Passage for a second week.
Plan is north shore of St Lawrence and then ferry crossing to Rivière-du-Loup; been told ferries are free for EVs in Quebec.
62 month old TM3, 110k km, 464 km at 100%, can’t wait to do the drive.
edit: corrected age of my car, took delivery in June 2018.
Mod: this is not a road trip forum, even on a weekend. No followups. --ggr
Last edited by a moderator:
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