Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Ford loses 1.08b in the EV division.

And their stock is up on the news.

LoL, can't make this stuff up.

 

[Todd Burch]

How much did their stock go up?

That was sarcasm of course but I see it's currently up 2.33% lol.

 

[EQC_]

Way sooner than anyone expected, Tesla already has an early build of FSD V12. Elon has said in the past that this would be the version with an end-to-end neural network:

Investor perspective:
While Elon's words can be interpreted as hyping FSD and/or the stock, note that he's using an arguably ambiguous description. Things can be mind-blowingly good or mind-blowingly bad. Or perhaps FSD messes up, airbags go off in face, rattling brain -- "mind blown" indeed. Nothing technically legally binding or legally misleading .

Side-note: For my particular drives, FSD is great. Drives well most of the time, but keeps me alert because it requires my attention/intervention often enough (misinterpreted speed limits in a few spots, doesn't yet avoid the potholes I'm all too familiar with so I have to manually dodge, and occasionally does something silly that needs my correction.

 

[EQC_]

... any analyst that can do simple numbers can deduce ...

Sure...but the vast majority of the analysts that get internet and TV coverage seem to either be unable to do simple numbers at all, or play picksy-choosy with the simple numbers that they start with (ignoring the numbers that don't fit their narrative), throw in some poor assumptions, and end up with glaringly wrong calculated results in the end.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Eh that's not really what I was saying.

I was simply stating the dynamic of how TSLA gets treated from Wall St. Which is unfairly.

All across the landscape of the stock market, including very much in the large market cap companies, you have stock after stock after stock where there is a complete disconnect between that company's actual earnings/YoY growth and it's PE. You might want to go and look at the true valuation metric, PEG of the other mid and mega cap names and then compare it to TSLA. Most are in the range of 2.5-3 PEG. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon (PEG of 11!), I could go and and on. TSLA PEG sits at 1.3....Ford has a higher PEG ratio. So you're argument that TSLA is fairly valued in the market today is just bogus.

TSLA PEG at 1.3?

TSLA price: ~$260

TSLA TTM EPS: $3.52

TSLA PE ratio: 72.59

TSLA forecasted EPS growth: $4.66 / $3.41 (2024 / 2023) = 36.6%

PEG ratio = 72.59 / 36.6 = 1.92 or about ~ 2

The market thinks TSLA's PEG going from 2023 to 2024 is about 2, not 1.3

That's being nice and not considering the earnings growth rate between 2023 and 2023, which is expected to be basically 0.

What's the PEG of a company with 0% earnings growth?

The benevolent market is mostly discarding the trash earnings growth TSLA currently has, and mostly weighting on the 2024 / 2023 comparison. Seems fair...for now.

 

[Max Plaid]

Mod: Here endeth the discussion about glass. It's too paneful. --ggr

Thanks, my eyes were beginning to glaze over...

 

[hobbes]

Tesla Owners Have Soured on Elon Musk, But Still Love Their Model 3s

After five years on the road, we asked 5,000 customers what they thought of their cars and the Tesla brand.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Singuy]

Tesla Owners Have Soured on Elon Musk, But Still Love Their Model 3s

After five years on the road, we asked 5,000 customers what they thought of their cars and the Tesla brand.

www.bloomberg.com

MSM are like "keep up the good work guys, Elon's power is shrinking as we speak".

 

[SOULPEDL]

In for a whopping 10 shares, woohoo!

OK, I'm in, and I'll raise you 5.

 

[cab]

Over the last few weeks it seems we have seen increased amounts of fumbling (or at least acknowledgement of such) by legacy automakers with regard to EV adoption. While this is generally good for Tesla, it could have some interesting side effects. For example, if GM and Ford continue to stumble in the U.S. I am guessing the mandates for EVs by 2030 or whenever will be seriously extended. Heck, if Trump manages to get elected again, he has already indicated he will boot that out day one (blatant courting of UAW vote - unlikely, but people vote with their wallet). Yes, it gives Tesla an even bigger lead, but I could see any number of things start to be put in place to try to "level the playing field" (i.e. make it harder for Tesla and easier for Legacy). Just another headwind for Tesla which I am sure they will overcome, but it won't take long for it to start happening...heck, it likely already is.

 

[ToTheStars]

Today is the first time I've seen a Hyundai Ioniq 6 (2023 edition). It looks like a nice sedan with an Asian touch to it. Very nice, I hope the Highland Model 3 incorporates the good parts from the design.
Then I compared the interior and specifications to the current Model 3 and they looked quite similar. So I thought: wow, the competition is doing something now! But then it dawned on me. It is summer 2023 right now. The first Model 3 was released 6(!) years ago already (July 2017)! Does that mean the competition is 6 years behind?
I haven't driven the Hyundai, did anyone else? Let me know how your experience was.
P.S. I'm just talking about the car, not FSD or the charging network

 

[EQC_]

Over the last few weeks it seems we have seen increased amounts of fumbling (or at least acknowledgement of such) by legacy automakers with regard to EV adoption. While this is generally good for Tesla, it could have some interesting side effects. For example, if GM and Ford continue to stumble in the U.S. I am guessing the mandates for EVs by 2030 or whenever will be seriously extended. Heck, if Trump manages to get elected again, he has already indicated he will boot that out day one (blatant courting of UAW vote - unlikely, but people vote with their wallet). Yes, it gives Tesla an even bigger lead, but I could see any number of things start to be put in place to try to "level the playing field" (i.e. make it harder for Tesla and easier for Legacy). Just another headwind for Tesla which I am sure they will overcome, but it won't take long for it to start happening...heck, it likely already is.

Such a terrible potential situation.

In a way, it wouldn't actually affect Tesla that much -- Tesla has a true global presence, so it would (hopefully) only affect the US market. And, Tesla would keep pushing hard, growing sales globally and in the US. Tesla's "EV marketshare" (I hate that misleading distinction) would rise in the US as the other manufacturers slowed down their EV attempts. A growing number of consumers would still continue to see the advantages of EVs and switch away from ICE, even in the US....as long as the opposition doesn't somehow add more subsidies and incentives to gas cars and gasoline.

But it would definitely be a headwind facing Tesla's stated purpose: to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Tesla would keep pushing as hard as they can, while the other automakers would lose motivation, at least in the US, and the transition away from ICE would be slowed. The US transition would fall (farther) behind Europe and China by intentionally hanging onto ICE cars. In that sense, it would be a huge headwind for the US economically and for the entire world due to the pollution and climate change results..

In the worst case scenario, Tesla would ultimately shift all production to solar-panelled, Cyber-armored, quasi-amphibious, bioweapon-defense vehicles so that owners can try to survive until the Mars colony is ready. Glass roofs and AC mean you can grow a few meager crops inside, I guess.

 

[MP3Mike]

LOL...roto-reuters at it again:

Tesla’s secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints

About a decade ago, Tesla rigged the dashboard readouts in its electric cars to provide “rosy” projections of how far owners can drive before needing to recharge, a source told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

View attachment 960120

Yep, and the headline is completely misleading. It wasn't about suppressing complaints; it was about taking care of their requests remotely and preventing the service staff from having to deal with nuance requests where there is nothing for them to service. (Customer education.)

Even the one guy they quoted that refused to cancel his service appointment ended up saying that they were correct and there was nothing wrong with his car, he just didn't understand that he wasn't going to get the EPA rated range in all driving conditions. (Tesla used to have a widget on their site where you could put in your speed and temperature and it would give you an estimate for how many miles you could actually drive, but they got rid of it.)

Also, one of their big claims about Tesla having a range estimate in the car that was optimistic and mislead people was from information from 2012, and was likely about the "Ideal" rating that Tesla used to let you select. So not anything current at all.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Also, one of their big claims about Tesla having a range estimate in the car that was optimistic and mislead people was from information from 2012, and was likely about the "Ideal" rating that Tesla used to let you select. So not anything current at all.

It's known that Tesla uses a different process to determine EPA range, running additional cycles. Only Tesla and Audi use it, but it provides higher range numbers that in real world tests (typically at 70 mph) Tesla falls further behind their EPA range than many others. Also, the tests require the car to be driven at a certain speed (city/highway) until it cannot maintain that speed. Tesla has additional buffer than other manufacturers, which is to protect the car/battery, but when the average person drives they aren't going below 0...typically not even below 10%.

It's all legal and well within the J1634 standard, but it results in lower real world range.

It's also fair to point out that Tesla handle cold weather much better than competitors.

 

[MP3Mike]

It's known that Tesla uses a different process to determine EPA range, running additional cycles. Only Tesla and Audi use it, but it provides higher range numbers that in real world tests (typically at 70 mph) Tesla falls further behind their EPA range than many others. Also, the tests require the car to be driven at a certain speed (city/highway) until it cannot maintain that speed. Tesla has additional buffer than other manufacturers, which is to protect the car/battery, but when the average person drives they aren't going below 0...typically not even below 10%.

It's all legal and well within the J1634 standard, but it results in lower real world range.

That is true and all covered in the article as well. What I was talking about was a completely different claim in the article.

 

[cab]

Such a terrible potential situation.

In a way, it wouldn't actually affect Tesla that much -- Tesla has a true global presence, so it would (hopefully) only affect the US market. And, Tesla would keep pushing hard, growing sales globally and in the US. Tesla's "EV marketshare" (I hate that misleading distinction) would rise in the US as the other manufacturers slowed down their EV attempts. A growing number of consumers would still continue to see the advantages of EVs and switch away from ICE, even in the US....as long as the opposition doesn't somehow add more subsidies and incentives to gas cars and gasoline.

But it would definitely be a headwind facing Tesla's stated purpose: to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Tesla would keep pushing as hard as they can, while the other automakers would lose motivation, at least in the US, and the transition away from ICE would be slowed. The US transition would fall (farther) behind Europe and China by intentionally hanging onto ICE cars. In that sense, it would be a huge headwind for the US economically and for the entire world due to the pollution and climate change results..

In the worst case scenario, Tesla would ultimately shift all production to solar-panelled, Cyber-armored, quasi-amphibious, bioweapon-defense vehicles so that owners can try to survive until the Mars colony is ready. Glass roofs and AC mean you can grow a few meager crops inside, I guess.

The impact to the mission could definitely be significant. Sadly, I don't think the whole "make things easier for legacy and harder to Tesla" will necessarily be limited to the U.S. Any country with a significant automaker presence might do something similar...hmmm...suddenly, Tesla building a factory in paperwork challenged Germany seems to make more sense since they are now technically part of the "German Automotive Industry". If you are the German government it's a lot harder to "Help VW and punish Tesla" when Tesla is likely key to their own future. Oh wait, I forgot politicians (and stock analysts) only care about what happens this week...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ford loses 1.08b in the EV division.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Reuters article is actually BS.

Just watch this video from 2 years ago on how is Tesla able to achieve such good EPA scores.
This feels like a new FUD wave incoming because legacy is getting their ass kicked by Tesla in EV-sales.

Tesla really needs to revive its PR department.
Then it should start producing educational advertisements.

 

[Krugerrand]

Just my speculation here, but while we have no official word of a hatchback for Highland 3, I would not write it off this early in the pre-production process either.

I’m calling zero chance of a hatchback for Highland. Franz doesn’t design that kind of boxy (typical of hatchbacks) shaped butt end on vehicles, I don’t see Tesla shortening up the back piece of glass nor elongating the sides of the lift gate to have it hinged higher along the roof line, and I doubt hatchbacks are aesthetically appealing to Elon.

A core ingredient to the mission was to make compelling EVs that didn’t look like glorified golf carts. While a hatchback may add usage value for people, they ain’t ‘pretty’. Pretty is important to Tesla.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Tesla really needs to revive its PR department.
Then it should start producing educational advertisements.

An example for the need of education:

Several Superchargers here in Germany are open to all EVs. But not many people know this.

I made it a habit to walk up to EV owners charging at other outlets nearby and talk to them about the available to all Tesla chargers. Today I learned a poor guy was charging his Opel (GM) for 0,75 Euro per kWh. Tesla charges 0.41 to 0.47 Euro at that location. He thanked me and will diligently choose the right charger in the future.

May I suggest, others here do the same.