Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

Get your popcorn ready:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691678431740616785

MEH. Say what you want about any upcoming FSD version, it's always incremental changes, some good, some bad. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[AndrewZ]

If the SR S/X are using a software locked battery; that should allow Tesla to sell people a pure margin software unlock for additional range.

If they are using LFP cells to make that pack; this is even more better for margin methinks! Since S/X don’t qualify for IRA anyway.

I would love to see them bring S/X to high volume production; they’re SUCH great cars, if they were profitable at a more affordable price, Tesla could fill a large price gap between the 3 and Y to the S or X.

Again; I wouldn’t want to be a Tesla competitor trying to sell into that price point.

Final point; the news is often running in the background in the gym at work. Maybe it’s just a slow news day; but local and national news had S/X pricing front and center. I had my headphones in so I’m not sure what was said; but dang those are some SEXY CARS! Basically 3 free infomercials in the 90 minutes I spent in the gym!

How about an additional range subscription for that long-term steady revenue stream?

 

[unk45]

It would also be interesting to know where EVs imported to Brazil come from.

Cars coming from China might need to be shipped via the Panama Canal?

Looking at a map , importing from Mexico seems more logical.

So perhaps shipping logistics from China to Brazil might be a consideration for Tesla?

Cars from Fremont where shipped to Australia, that is probably a similar distance, but no canal trip required.

It would also be interesting to know where EVs imported to Brazil come from.

Cars coming from China might need to be shipped via the Panama Canal?

Looking at a map , importing from Mexico seems more logical.

So perhaps shipping logistics from China to Brazil might be a consideration for Tesla?

Cars from Fremont where shipped to Australia, that is probably a similar distance, but no canal trip required.

There are multiple sources, none definitive, but I maintain a count as best I can using both company data, Federal import counts and AMBEIFA:

ABEIFA - Associação Brasileira das Empresas Importadoras e Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores

That source is Precise by model but often not accurate. The lone Kia EV6 is illustrative NOT accurate.
For January-June 2023
China dominated with:
BYD beginning with some of every BEV model,
JAC imported a few of every truck and car they make but also delivered fleets to Braspress and the city of São José dos Campos, SP which converted it's entire fleet to JAC models.
A few Chery iCar also as a test by CAOA Chery.
Belgium was a strong number two with Volvo XC40 Recharge and C40 Recharge with the largest single brand sales at about 1300 (Ambeifa reports only the 894 XC40's.
Mercedes Benz and Porsche (144 in first half 2023) all import from Germany,
BMW brand from Germany and Mini from UK now, moving that to China.
Jaguar is from Austria.
The 2022 results for Statista are here:
In 2022, Volvo dominated the battery-electric vehicle sales in Brazil. From January to December of that year, 1770 units of Volvo's XC40 were sold in the South American country. Meanwhile, Caoa Chery sold around 782 units of its iCar model in the same period, making it the second highest-selling car model in the Brazilian electric segment. JAC, Renault, and Audi also manufactured vehicles ranking among the leading electric vehicle models in Brazil in that period. Brazil: best-selling BEV 2022 | Statista

That all gives a rough indication of how vestigial the auto BEV market is in Brazil. The truck and bus markets are far more developed and are rising quickly, but that is not immediately relevant to Tesla although it is very important for both BYD and CATL.

 

[Atomsla]

How about an additional range subscription for that long-term steady revenue stream?

Seemed silly to me at first, but I could see it as a useful feature. Most of the time, I dont need that extra range. When going on vacation, I'd like me some more range, so I'd need it then and only then. Paying €50 or whatever once or twice a year instead of an extra €10k when buying the car would work for me.

 

[MartinAustin]

Seemed silly to me at first, but I could see it as a useful feature. Most of the time, I dont need that extra range. When going on vacation, I'd like me some more range, so I'd need it then and only then. Paying €50 or whatever once or twice a year instead of an extra €10k when buying the car would work for me.

Also - historically, Tesla has remotely unlocked extra range on cars that allow it, when they are located in regions affected by natural disasters and such. Add the new Standard Range S+X to that small fleet.

My prediction for the stock today... it will do the shooting star pattern with a maximum altitude of "unchanged" and then will start its true fall today, ending down 2%.

 

[Two-rocks]

How about an additional range subscription for that long-term steady revenue stream?

Give the cars away, supercharging only, $10 kwh.

Or, how about no more subscriptions? Subscriptions are for Wall Street - not consumers - a business model that needs to die a rapid death.

 

[AndrewZ]

I vote for SmokeyPeat to be made a mod

 

[jschwefel]

Seemed silly to me at first, but I could see it as a useful feature. Most of the time, I dont need that extra range. When going on vacation, I'd like me some more range, so I'd need it then and only then. Paying €50 or whatever once or twice a year instead of an extra €10k when buying the car would work for me.

This IS interesting. What if Tesla lowered the price of the S and X to enable them to get the IRA tax benefit, then sold them the extra range on an as-requested, perhaps subscription basis.?

 

[GhostSkater]

There are multiple sources, none definitive, but I maintain a count as best I can using both company data, Federal import counts and AMBEIFA:

ABEIFA - Associação Brasileira das Empresas Importadoras e Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores

That source is Precise by model but often not accurate. The lone Kia EV6 is illustrative NOT accurate.
For January-June 2023
China dominated with:
BYD beginning with some of every BEV model,
JAC imported a few of every truck and car they make but also delivered fleets to Braspress and the city of São José dos Campos, SP which converted it's entire fleet to JAC models.
A few Chery iCar also as a test by CAOA Chery.
Belgium was a strong number two with Volvo XC40 Recharge and C40 Recharge with the largest single brand sales at about 1300 (Ambeifa reports only the 894 XC40's.
Mercedes Benz and Porsche (144 in first half 2023) all import from Germany,
BMW brand from Germany and Mini from UK now, moving that to China.
Jaguar is from Austria.
The 2022 results for Statista are here:
In 2022, Volvo dominated the battery-electric vehicle sales in Brazil. From January to December of that year, 1770 units of Volvo's XC40 were sold in the South American country. Meanwhile, Caoa Chery sold around 782 units of its iCar model in the same period, making it the second highest-selling car model in the Brazilian electric segment. JAC, Renault, and Audi also manufactured vehicles ranking among the leading electric vehicle models in Brazil in that period. Brazil: best-selling BEV 2022 | Statista

That all gives a rough indication of how vestigial the auto BEV market is in Brazil. The truck and bus markets are far more developed and are rising quickly, but that is not immediately relevant to Tesla although it is very important for both BYD and CATL.

Is it possible to get data on grey imports? Wonder how many Teslas there is, there is also at least two Rivians and one Whal...Hummer EV

 

[SOULPEDL]

Get your popcorn ready:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691678431740616785

Coast to coast FSD demo would be very cool... while I'm still alive!

 

[Nocturnal]

These little victories pile up daily. I'm increasing my odds that we will see an even greater push into green tech due to awareness and weather related events.

If that includes taxis when that's around 250-300k vehicles just in NYC that need replacement. (numbers per the NYT)

 

[ZeApelido]

Will the real Model 3 killer please stand up?

https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1691826204846805344?s=46&t=BTOnuuGEAq92IbPe2cag2w

Jaguar to stop production of the I-Pace in 2025

 

[mongo]

This IS interesting. What if Tesla lowered the price of the S and X to enable them to get the IRA tax benefit, then sold them the extra range on an as-requested, perhaps subscription basis.?

That might run afoul of the IRS wording regarding vehicle options physically attached from the factory.

Q4. How will I know what the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) is for a vehicle? (added December 29, 2022)
A4. The MSRP will be on the vehicle information label attached to each vehicle on a dealer's premises. The MSRP for this purpose is the base retail price suggested by the manufacturer, plus the retail price suggested by the manufacturer for each accessory or item of optional equipment physically attached to the vehicle at the time of delivery to the dealer. It does not include destination charges or optional items added by the dealer, or taxes and fees.

However, if the service center did a pack upgrade, that would allow the lower MSRP. (See also, wheel swap)

 

[EVMeister]

More Cybertruck sightings at Giga Texas:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691828191873106118

Joe Tegtmeyer: "Spotted more Cybertrucks today at Giga Texas and later I'll release a high resolution video once I get home and can process it. For the time being, enjoy these images!"

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

These little victories pile up daily. I'm increasing my odds that we will see an even greater push into green tech due to awareness and weather related events.

View attachment 965498

The EPA is the regulatory body for vehicle emissions. Years ago now Boston wanted to require taxis to be hybrids and lost in court. This would probably die in a similar way.

 

[bkp_duke]

More Cybertruck sightings at Giga Texas:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691828191873106118

Joe Tegtmeyer: "Spotted more Cybertrucks today at Giga Texas and later I'll release a high resolution video once I get home and can process it. For the time being, enjoy these images!"

Not just CT sightings. We're starting to see (at least I do in videos), Model Y's with white interiors. Previously Austin was only doing the black interior.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Will the real Model 3 killer please stand up?

https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1691826204846805344?s=46&t=BTOnuuGEAq92IbPe2cag2w

Jaguar to stop production of the I-Pace in 2025

That's when Waymo is ending, right? Or do we still need them around to prevent the Tesla monopoly? (Waymo uses this same I-Pace vehicle which may explain why the long delay to shut it down.)

 

[MartinAustin]

That might run afoul of the IRS wording regarding vehicle options physically attached from the factory.


However, if the service center did a pack upgrade, that would allow the lower MSRP. (See also, wheel swap)

You can sell a 60kWh car with a 40kWh buffer. Everybody has been selling cars with a bit of buffer. Which law controls/addreses the size of the buffer in your car?

Owners can elect to reduce the size of their battery buffer with a software change.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

There are multiple sources, none definitive, but I maintain a count as best I can using both company data, Federal import counts and AMBEIFA:

ABEIFA - Associação Brasileira das Empresas Importadoras e Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores

That source is Precise by model but often not accurate. The lone Kia EV6 is illustrative NOT accurate.
For January-June 2023
China dominated with:
BYD beginning with some of every BEV model,
JAC imported a few of every truck and car they make but also delivered fleets to Braspress and the city of São José dos Campos, SP which converted it's entire fleet to JAC models.
A few Chery iCar also as a test by CAOA Chery.
Belgium was a strong number two with Volvo XC40 Recharge and C40 Recharge with the largest single brand sales at about 1300 (Ambeifa reports only the 894 XC40's.
Mercedes Benz and Porsche (144 in first half 2023) all import from Germany,
BMW brand from Germany and Mini from UK now, moving that to China.
Jaguar is from Austria.
The 2022 results for Statista are here:
In 2022, Volvo dominated the battery-electric vehicle sales in Brazil. From January to December of that year, 1770 units of Volvo's XC40 were sold in the South American country. Meanwhile, Caoa Chery sold around 782 units of its iCar model in the same period, making it the second highest-selling car model in the Brazilian electric segment. JAC, Renault, and Audi also manufactured vehicles ranking among the leading electric vehicle models in Brazil in that period. Brazil: best-selling BEV 2022 | Statista

That all gives a rough indication of how vestigial the auto BEV market is in Brazil. The truck and bus markets are far more developed and are rising quickly, but that is not immediately relevant to Tesla although it is very important for both BYD and CATL.

Importing from Shanghai is the obvious starting point. Importing from Mexico later could make sense as well.

Brazil itself is market with total sales 25% larger than the UK, but lower value, and it's a much larger country than the UK requiring more Supercharger infrastructure, although it's a CCS2 country so Tesla doesn't have to do everything. Nice to have, but not a big deal in itself. But manufacturing in Brazil could make sense as a base for Brazil and Mercosul/Mercosur as of now. Ford imports their Fat Fiesta from Brazil to the USA, as I recall.

A big question would be whether the EU and Mercosul/Mercosur can complete a trade deal, or Mexico and the EU. There are stumbling blocks. If Mercosur gets a deal, but Mexico doesn't then potentially Brazil could become a base for some wider export, with Mexico more focused on North America and Japan/Korea.

Of course, there's also India, which as well as a potential market, is a potential base for RHD markets. There are developing RHD countries with substantial populations especially in Asia and East and Southern Africa.

 

[Singuy]

Interesting, Tesla and apple are two most under owned stocks by institutional.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691800680623735000