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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yes, but downselling can accelerate the conversion to BEVs (market size) while requiring fewer batteries. Mission with Profits.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
I agree with @MC3OZ regarding above post.
So what happened with Model 3 ramp delivery numbers? We can extract information from the following InsideEVs table. We know Model Y deliveries commenced March 13th, 2020, so will stop there as this table combines M3 and MY numbers.
Model 3:
- 1st quarter of Deliveries: 222
- 2nd quarter of Deliveries: 1,542
- 3rd quarter of Deliveries: 8,182
- 4th quarter of Deliveries: 18,449
First Full year of Deliveries: 28,395
Second Full year of Deliveries: 247,986
Should Cybertruck be on Delivery par with Model 3, we will similarly have 222 by end of 2023, 1,542 in Q1/24 and 8,182 in Q2/24. The significant ramp up of volume, and in turn profits in the balance sheet, will occur in the 2nd half of 2024 and it really gets going in 2025. I would be pleased with these results should they happen and believe them to be fair expectations. Remember this is an S curve, especially for new technology. Time will tell.
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For those who don't use the drug formerly known as the bird app.
GhostSkater
Member
In my opinion, this pretty much confirms a double layer pack, as Tesla themselves said years ago and people doubted, and also that it will have 500(maybe +) miles of range
We saw pictures from the bottom on the trailers, the pack goes down all the way, and also the floor is really high, way more than any other Tesla vehicle
In a double layer configuration, the current 4680 is enough for 500 miles, the V2 aka Cybercell makes it even easier to hit, or maybe surpass it
If only part of the pack was double layer, like the F150, it would make sense to change how the floor is designed to be able to make the overall Cybertruck height smaller, similar how the Rimac Nevera does, where the passenger foot goes there is no cells so you don't have to raise the whole car to fit people inside
edit: @Nocturnal beat me
We saw pictures from the bottom on the trailers, the pack goes down all the way, and also the floor is really high, way more than any other Tesla vehicle
In a double layer configuration, the current 4680 is enough for 500 miles, the V2 aka Cybercell makes it even easier to hit, or maybe surpass it
If only part of the pack was double layer, like the F150, it would make sense to change how the floor is designed to be able to make the overall Cybertruck height smaller, similar how the Rimac Nevera does, where the passenger foot goes there is no cells so you don't have to raise the whole car to fit people inside
edit: @Nocturnal beat me
The competition is coming...
www.caranddriver.com
GMC Hummer EV SUT Turns into a Mobile Home with EarthCruiser Upfit
With the carbon-fiber pop-up camper, overlanders who have deep pockets can go as far as the electric truck's battery takes them.
www.caranddriver.com
I guess that warning of being fired by Tesla didn't do much lol
How does this confirm the possibility of a double layer pack?In my opinion, this pretty much confirms a double layer pack, as Tesla themselves said years ago and people doubted, and also that it will have 500(maybe +) miles of range
We saw pictures from the bottom on the trailers, the pack goes down all the way, and also the floor is really high, way more than any other Tesla vehicle
In a double layer configuration, the current 4680 is enough for 500 miles, the V2 aka Cybercell makes it even easier to hit, or maybe surpass it
If only part of the pack was double layer, like the F150, it would make sense to change how the floor is designed to be able to make the overall Cybertruck height smaller, similar how the Rimac Nevera does, where the passenger foot goes there is no cells so you don't have to raise the whole car to fit people inside
edit: @Nocturnal beat me
If done properly, it's harder to steal stuff from the back of the vehicle by having an enclosed trunk.
The floor in that CT assembly pic doesn't look "really high, way more than any other Tesla vehicle" to me.... it looks rather standard. As a matter of fact, the seats are up on decent height rails, unlike what appeared to be raised floor section with the seats directly on it in the Roadster 2.0 prototypes, which was thought to be a double-height pack (at least in some sections).In my opinion, this pretty much confirms a double layer pack, as Tesla themselves said years ago and people doubted, and also that it will have 500(maybe +) miles of range
We saw pictures from the bottom on the trailers, the pack goes down all the way, and also the floor is really high, way more than any other Tesla vehicle
In a double layer configuration, the current 4680 is enough for 500 miles, the V2 aka Cybercell makes it even easier to hit, or maybe surpass it
If only part of the pack was double layer, like the F150, it would make sense to change how the floor is designed to be able to make the overall Cybertruck height smaller, similar how the Rimac Nevera does, where the passenger foot goes there is no cells so you don't have to raise the whole car to fit people inside
edit: @Nocturnal beat me
Nissan Leaf Plus 0-60 is 6.8s.
The 40kWh is something like 8.5s.
Oh, how on Earth do they manage?
Another indicator: The door sill appears to be a normal height above the floor.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Argh. This doesn't sound like it will be anytime soon.If they are still polishing it then ok. Sure would be nice to get some sort of info though.
What's fun to think about, notwithstanding our painful wait for Tesla to get to production, is how much of the first Cybertruck will be wrong. Let me explain.
My 2018 Model 3 (VIN 5YJ3E1EB8JF107xxx) is the best car I've ever owned. It was supposed to be Tesla's new generation of mass-market car, optimized for simplicity and cost-efficiency, and incorporating all the lessons Tesla had learned producing the Model S and Model X. And yet, 5 years later, how much of that car has been changed? Like, the 70-odd mishmash of welded parts replaced by a single casting in the Model Y?? When I counted 2 years ago, even I'd received 300-odd OTA updates and new features.
So whatever amazing things Tesla finally decides to incorporate into production release 1.0, you know that, within days, they'll already be improving the Cybertruck. That's a good thing.
Developing this platform is extremely hard - granted. But if anyone can do it, Elon's team can. The relentless - albeit not unique, but exceptionally risk-tolerant - drive for continuous improvement in the mission to make the world sustainable is what makes Tesla the most exciting, compelling, and worth-investing-in company in the world.
HODL.
How so? If the economy keeps humming along, sounds like there would be little need to cut rates...
Sigh…
I don’t understand all this guessing and doubts about Tesla details unknown to us, in many cases we will very soon know.
I do personally e.g. fully believe in ~500 mile Cybertruck range. Why? Because they said so. And still do (and please don’t argue «but it says up to»)…:
Spending as much time as we do on (writing but in particular reading due to our numbers) such speculations and quarrels feels a bit wasted, at least in context of this particular thread, IMO…
I don’t understand all this guessing and doubts about Tesla details unknown to us, in many cases we will very soon know.
I do personally e.g. fully believe in ~500 mile Cybertruck range. Why? Because they said so. And still do (and please don’t argue «but it says up to»)…:
Spending as much time as we do on (writing but in particular reading due to our numbers) such speculations and quarrels feels a bit wasted, at least in context of this particular thread, IMO…
If you think Q3 GDP will be anywhere close to 5%, let alone 5.9%, then you are living in la la land.
This is simply the Fed putting out BS forecasts as a way to "justify" their rate policy and specifically what Powell is going to say tomorrow.
Robotaxis wreak havoc in San Francisco. Don’t want them in your Bay Area city? Tough luck
GM’s Cruise, blamed for the majority of incidents with emergency responders, claims its robotaxis drive more safely than people.
www.mercurynews.com
I don’t see any reason why Tesla would want to rush into Robotaxis.
Does "because they said so" work with Tesla?
There's a long list of things that were never delivered (Plaid +) or haven't been delivered, yet (FSD, Roadster, etc)...but outside of that, in the context of the company.
There's not enough 4680s right now to provide that in high volumes. If they want to sell a higher volume of CTs, they would likely table the high range version, which is what all of the rumors are saying.
More CTs sold is better for the stock, no?
Edit: And by mentioning the Plaid +, I don't think Elon will come out and say "We don't think anyone needs over 500 miles of range" with the CT. Just that it may release at a later date.
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