Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[uscbucsfan]

The thing is, it's hard to fake a live stream in real traffic conditions. Anything can happen. And something really bad could happen.

Elon is taking a risk. So he must really think V12 is solid.

It's not really not, though. Look at Whole Mars' videos. They are curated with hand picked routes. There also could be defined mapping involved like the 2016 video.

Not that I'm saying that will happen, it's just what people will say if it's a good drive. Also remember that Elon's version of FSD is and has been different than what we get. It's more assertive and doesn't require input. Even at v11.

My point isn't to be a naysayer, just that it will do very little to sway or discourage either side, regardless of outcome. We see people excited over Whole Mars curated drives who defend FSD getting in accidents or running red lights/stop signs and we also see people putting down Whole Mars while highlighting the opposite. Rinse and repeat.

And I don't think Elon is really taking a risk. People said he was when he gave out 3 month trials with FSD, but he didn't allow access to Beta, so there was minimal risk. I think him and his team are smart enough to minimize risk in location and routing.

 

[TesslaBull]

Just placed my pre-order for Model 3 Highland hatchback Plaid trim.




Ok, maybe this was wishful thinking.

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

The thing is, it's hard to fake a live stream in real traffic conditions. Anything can happen. And something really bad could happen.

Elon is taking a risk. So he must really think V12 is solid.

It is very probable Elon is doing his known tactic of placing extreme pressure on the development team.
I am positive that those guys have not slept since he first announced he is doing this livestream…

 

[Singuy]

The thing is, it's hard to fake a live stream in real traffic conditions. Anything can happen. And something really bad could happen.

Elon is taking a risk. So he must really think V12 is solid.

I wish it wasn't live streamed as that brings nothing new to the table. Like Gerber's hour long demo with Dan, perfection gets you no praise and the mistake gets you a lot of hate.

I wish an autopilot engineer take a spin and explains what is going on, why the car is doing what it's doing, and all the new features in V12. What is even NN controls and what is the significance of end to end? How is V12 transitioning to non-beta stage and what does that even mean? What makes this version so much better than all the other versions?

A live stream of a short drive doesn't explain anything besides ...oh V11 could do that too or...yikes still not ready for prime time.

 

[EQC_]

The thing is, it's hard to fake a live stream in real traffic conditions. Anything can happen. And something really bad could happen.

Elon is taking a risk. So he must really think V12 is solid.

Worst thing that might happen: Jerks and/or crazies view the livestream, figure out where Elon is driving, and race over in their own cars to try to disrupt things, potentially dangerously.

Didn't this actually happen when Tesla was pre-filming FSD drives at some point...not even live streaming...but somebody figured out the route they were on and went over trying to side-swipe the car and stuff? I have a vague memory that it was connected to that "Skabooshka" character that was stalking and trespassing on the Fremont factory to try to get evidence of Tesla fraud or something for the TSLAQ crowd.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I wish it wasn't live streamed as that brings nothing new to the table. Like Gerber's hour long demo with Dan, perfection gets you no praise and the mistake gets you a lot of hate.

I wish an autopilot engineer take a spin and explains what is going on, why the car is doing what it's doing, and all the new features in V12. What is even NN controls and what is the significance of end to end? How is V12 transitioning to non-beta stage and what does that even mean? What makes this version so much better than all the other versions?

A live stream of a short drive doesn't explain anything besides ...oh V11 could do that too or...yikes still not ready for prime time.

Agreed. Considering that v12 still has a lot of work to be ready for public testing. I would love just a technical explanation of what is changed and will be changed/improved.

 

[insaneoctane]

I know I shouldn't get too excited about this, but I think it's a big step.

If Elon live streams in real rush hour traffic and the car does something horrible it could have a profound effect on the public perception of FSD.

Elon knows this. He must have a lot of confidence in version 12.

Not sure I can put that much stock in the hype. He's often tweeted that FSD is "mind blowing" regarding his access early builds that hasn't translated to similar sentiment when it finally makes it into owners hands. I'm always hopeful, but have low expectations for what we see on the live stream. I would prefer to de-hype all the FSD, CT, Gen2, roadster2.0, highlander, etc. and just deliver the goods when they're actually ready....

 

[petit_bateau]

I was surprised to find out that not only is Tesla's current operating margin lower than some other auto OEMs, but so are their gross margins.

Toyota has a gross margin just under 20%.

So it seems on the surface that Tesla is just like any other OEM in terms of cost to build.

However that is with EV costs while Toyota and others are primarily ICE / hybrids. I could imagine their costs and gross margins would be surpressed as they transition to more EVs, so it's not an apples to apples comparison. But I fear currently it doesn't make sense to proclaim Tesla has a superior cost structure.

Even after all the price cuts and flat earnings, if Tesla is able to keep current operating margins and grow revenues ~ 50% YoY in the future, this will allow for a high PE multiple like 50-80 even as earnings go higher.

So 2023 is a wash, EPS might be in mid threes, like $3.6. But what can 2024 look like? I can see $1 additional contribution from Energy growth. I would also assume that Model 3 revamp should improve ASP and reduce COGs. Could this, and Cybertrack ramped, contribute at least $0.5 in EPS in 2024? I would think that's a reasonable bet.

If so, TSLA should be able to get over $5 in EPS in 2024 with good growth trajectory. At a PE ratio of 70, I think we might be able to reach a stable price of $350 maybe in a year from now.

Also Tesla gets the additional benefit of internalising the distributor margin, but of course also has to internalise the distributor costs.

Personally I think Tesla 2024 EPS will be closer to $4 than to $5, indeed $3.85 is my best offering for 2024.

But a growth rate of ~50% is the biggy. So pricing shares on PEG rather than PE, or alternatively providing the justification for the high PE.

 

[insaneoctane]

Two very obvious reasons why Highland will be cheaper:

1. Model Y w. gigacasting is cheaper to build than Model 3 w/o; ergo Model 3 w. will also be cheaper (that's the major reason behind the Highland refresh), and
2. Model 3 Highland volumes will be much higher due to simplification of production processes at Shanghai + Fremont; a lower base price will match the total addressable market to the planned volume (ARK Invest did a chart of TAM vs. Price)

The broad strokes were also layed out in the original Secret Master Plan*.

Cheers!

*Just between you and me.

Has it been discussed here what a cheaper highland model 3 will likely do to TM3 resale values?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Has it been discussed here what a cheaper highland model 3 will likely do to TM3 resale values?

No, probably because it's a known it will lower it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agreed. Considering that v12 still has a lot of work to be ready for public testing. I would love just a technical explanation of what is changed and will be changed/improved.

Lol way to make a comment with having an ounce of proof of that.

We don’t know what is or isn’t effecting the public release of V12. There could be new functionality that the team wants working even though the other 95% of V12 works flawlessly. It could be that all functionality is working and Tesla wants the March of 9’s to be far along since Elon has publicly stated that V12 will not be a beta, but the actual consumer release.

 

[Singuy]

Not sure I can put that much stock in the hype. He's often tweeted that FSD is "mind blowing" regarding his access early builds that hasn't translated to similar sentiment when it finally makes it into owners hands. I'm always hopeful, but have low expectations for what we see on the live stream. I would prefer to de-hype all the FSD, CT, Gen2, roadster2.0, highlander, etc. and just deliver the goods when they're actually ready....

The only thing Elon can do tonight to really drive up the hype is to live stream V12 alone from the back seat. It'll probably break Tsla down trend and the internet.

 

[insaneoctane]

There is no compressor on Superchargers stalls, It's just fans and a air to water heat exchanger, by the pics we got it might be the same that goes on the cars on V4

You don't need a refrigeration system in it since the wires can get over 100°C without a problem (as per the NACS specs), this means that even at high ambient temperatures you have plenty of temperature delta to have effective heat exchange

In contrast, the cells peak at ~60°C, so if you have 30+°C ambient temperature, there is not enough difference for enough power to be dissipated, you would need a giant heat exchanger that wouldn't fit even behind the newest BMW grills. A refrigeration system increases the delta between the cells and the cold coolant side and a the delta between the ambient and hot coolant side, make the cold side colder and the hot side hotter

Imagine how hot the electricity coming across the v4 cable on a hot summer day must be....

 

[uscbucsfan]

Lol way to make a comment with having an ounce of proof of that.

We don’t know what is or isn’t effecting the public release of V12. There could be new functionality that the team wants working even though the other 95% of V12 works flawlessly. It could be that all functionality is working and Tesla wants the March of 9’s to be far along since Elon has publicly stated that V12 will not be a beta, but the actual consumer release.

I just used Elon's quote that there is too much new code to release to the public. He said V11 was fire and amazing 14 months before public testers received it. No one is claiming the same timeline, but he said it's not ready.

 

[Buckminster]

Can everyone please continue to speculate here on V12 given that SP is likely to spike 20% tonight following a successful test drive. Dedicated threads to be avoided:
FSD V12 (end to end AI)
FSD discussion

 

[Two-rocks]

Has it been discussed here what a cheaper highland model 3 will likely do to TM3 resale values?

Further the mission, it will.
More BEV's to more people.
I may not like the depreciating value of my Model 3, BUT it serves the same function as well as the day I bought it - a CAR.
As a gaming platform? Tech device? not as much.

 

[Unpilot]

He's often tweeted that FSD is "mind blowing" regarding his access early builds that hasn't translated to similar sentiment when it finally makes it into owners hands.

That's because he knows what is going on behind the scene.

IMHO what has happened is the TESLA team has set the bar so high through tons of hard work that when a problem is solved it seems mundane to most people.

But the team including EM knows this is mind-blowing software they are working on.

Go rent a newish car with similar ability's and report back....wait you can't.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Just placed my pre-order for Model 3 Highland hatchback Plaid trim.




Ok, maybe this was wishful thinking.

$27k after rebate?

 

[InDaClub]

Would you like an AWD Ioniq 5 for $46k?

No, thanks! I'll stick with the best selling car in the world :

Model Y | Tesla

Model Y is a fully electric, mid-size SUV with unparalleled protection and versatile cargo space.

www.tesla.com

Tesla Model Y Was The World's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023

The numbers show the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling car in the world for the first quarter of 2023.

www.motor1.com

 

[Krugerrand]

The thing is, it's hard to fake a live stream in real traffic conditions. Anything can happen. And something really bad could happen.

Elon is taking a risk. So he must really think V12 is solid.

Worst case; more t-shirt sales. It’ll be fine regardless of the outcome of the demo.