Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

First, please allow me explain:

Margin cuts really hurt TSLA share prices.

It's the weekend, so I'll indulge the comment; this is NOT tangential to what is going to happen to TSLA if it's not fixed soon.

The implications for TSLA are HUGE if this utter BS continues at Tesla. Bjorn's recent video ride-along in the new Highland Model 3 was telling. The driver enters a roundabout and then signals with his OTHER hand (because the turn signal is upside down and now on the wrong side of the steering wheel, and it's pointing in the wrong direction!), and Bjorn comments, "Oh, I see you've done this same route a lot of times already." [paraphrased.].

Second, there are no studies (to my knowledge) that would provide any support to having a moving, variable turn signal selector as no one would fund such an obviously stupid study.

Third, as the Model 3 and Y GREATLY outsell the Model S and X, the impact to our total EV demand will be far greater. Elon is the likely source of this "ram-roding for cost-savings" here as "All input is error" is a quote of his.

This may impact TSLA far more than we suspect as when demand wanes, price cuts follow (see Model S and X pricing trends).

We do NOT need otherwise brilliant EV's hobbled by hubris and arrogance.

Our only hope is that there's a quick recovery plan to re-install the friggin' turn signal lever. At least they got a clue and put the horn button back where it belongs, so that's something.

Those of us with the Palladium S and X still suffer from this Elon lie, or perhaps he just misspoke in an early a.m. Tweet?

Elon Musk confirms yoke steering wheel airbag horn will be turned on through OTA software update

In January we reported that Tesla was getting ready to add a new airbag horn to the Model S yoke steering wheel. The new feature was spotted on a yoke steering wheel with the sticker “AIRBAG […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Tesla is conducting a study right now as to whether turn signal stalks are materially better. If it turns out they are then Tesla can update the vehicle spec for future manufacturing in very short order. This is probably 80 year old tech.

If it was a cut and dried decision then turn signal stalks would be regulated

 

[InTheMiddle]

Consider the history of Tesla's steering yoke in the S and X as a reference. Each vehicle originally had a round steering wheel, but after a refreshed design each initially only came with a steering yoke. After some period of time, there was clearly enough feedback received that Tesla introduced the option to have either the steering wheel or the steering yoke. Currently, the steering wheel is now the standard, with the steering yoke a price-add option, and I believe (without providing data) that the steering wheel is currently the lion's share of the S and X orders / production, not the steering yoke. But there are choices and let each buyer have their preference.

Stalks may (or may not) follow a similar pattern, depending on actual preferences of buyers. Some will want them; others will not. The ratio of the size of those two groups will matter. Also, it's important to note that not all stalks are the same in either importance or use case: activating turn signals and turning on windshield wipers are both things which may need to be done rapidly while the vehicle is in motion with the steering wheel turned, for example, whereas changing gears (park / neutral / drive / reverse) should in general only happen when the car is currently stationary and the operator has additional whole seconds to orient where the control is and perform the action. As such it is ... odd ... IMHO that the X has physical gear selection in a fixed spacial position to me, but the turn signals rotate thru space and must be spacially located before I can activate them even at speed while turning. Hence, should stalks be reintroduced as an option, it may be that some of the stalks return but not all of the stalks return, and that will be interesting.

 

[jerry33]

Consider the history of Tesla's steering yoke in the S and X as a reference. Each vehicle originally had a round steering wheel, but after a refreshed design each initially only came with a steering yoke. After some period of time, there was clearly enough feedback received that Tesla introduced the option to have either the steering wheel or the steering yoke. Currently, the steering wheel is now the standard, with the steering yoke a price-add option, and I believe (without providing data) that the steering wheel is currently the lion's share of the S and X orders / production, not the steering yoke. But there are choices and let each buyer have their preference.

Stalks may (or may not) follow a similar pattern, depending on actual preferences of buyers. Some will want them; others will not. The ratio of the size of those two groups will matter. Also, it's important to note that not all stalks are the same in either importance or use case: activating turn signals and turning on windshield wipers are both things which may need to be done rapidly while the vehicle is in motion with the steering wheel turned, for example, whereas changing gears (park / neutral / drive / reverse) should in general only happen when the car is currently stationary and the operator has additional whole seconds to orient where the control is and perform the action. As such it is ... odd ... IMHO that the X has physical gear selection in a fixed spacial position to me, but the turn signals rotate thru space and must be spacially located before I can activate them even at speed while turning. Hence, should stalks be reintroduced as an option, it may be that some of the stalks return but not all of the stalks return, and that will be interesting.

My two cents is that there should be one stalk with FSD and a button for the wiper/washer. The speed of the wiper can be set on the screen as that's seldom ever changed. FSD needs to be turned on and off quickly and the "distance/agressiveness" is frequently adjusted on trips. Turn signals can be on the wheel because FSD does most turn signals.

 

[Stretch2727]

Do you think that US tax incentives to buy Hybrids is what accelerated this? The IRA Hybrid inclusion might have been a real watershed moment causing Tesla to not care so much about legacy survival. Ford might be a different story because of the F150 (which is a hard drug for many), and Ford making a valid attempt at electrifying it. Although, not much progress (or future) there as we learn more about Ford dealership pricing and diluted production plans, along with UAW mess. The NACS charging standard was for future vehicles, like from China in the US. Tesla needed Ford and others to adopt it only to create the standard (and maybe to demonstrate that charging can be pleasant so it doesn't get such a bad reputation).

If Hybrids were disallowed in the IRA, Tesla may have had more support for legacy and be more sensitive to their bottom lines. As it is now, anyone building Hybrids is not helping but hurting the mission. No need to debate the usefulness of Hybrids over ICE. This is more to do with Hybrid over BEV as a way to extend the service life of gasoline. To be clear, don't dare point out advantages of Hybrids as some bridge purchase toward BEV - studies have shown they are not routinely charged and were mainly purchased for HOV lane access. (Edit just to add that this is not 100% of the population; many here especially have milked their Hybrids of every mile they could - great, but not the norm historically.) The reduced costs of a BEV today make it so the Hybrids are more expensive long-term.

To be clear the IRA only covers Plug in Hybrids. (PHEV).

There are a total of 7 PHEV vehicles eligible for the tax credit and all are relatively low volume. (See list below from Fueleconomy.gov.)
GM has no PHEV and Ford CEO was clear they want to do more regular hybrids not PHEV. The international companies are not helped so much because many of their PHEV's are not made in North America. No Toyota's which is the biggest pusher of Hybrid/PHEV as all PHEV are made in Japan.

I doubt any of these are having much of an effect on Tesla. I actually believe most OEM's realize BEV's are the end game. They may do Hybrids to try to bridge but they realize they needs solid profitable BEV to be successful in the long term.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Do you think that US tax incentives to buy Hybrids is what accelerated this? The IRA Hybrid inclusion might have been a real watershed moment causing Tesla to not care so much about legacy survival. Ford might be a different story because of the F150 (which is a hard drug for many), and Ford making a valid attempt at electrifying it. Although, not much progress (or future) there as we learn more about Ford dealership pricing and diluted production plans, along with UAW mess. The NACS charging standard was for future vehicles, like from China in the US. Tesla needed Ford and others to adopt it only to create the standard (and maybe to demonstrate that charging can be pleasant so it doesn't get such a bad reputation).

If Hybrids were disallowed in the IRA, Tesla may have had more support for legacy and be more sensitive to their bottom lines. As it is now, anyone building Hybrids is not helping but hurting the mission. No need to debate the usefulness of Hybrids over ICE. This is more to do with Hybrid over BEV as a way to extend the service life of gasoline. To be clear, don't dare point out advantages of Hybrids as some bridge purchase toward BEV - studies have shown they are not routinely charged and were mainly purchased for HOV lane access. (Edit just to add that this is not 100% of the population; many here especially have milked their Hybrids of every mile they could - great, but not the norm historically.) The reduced costs of a BEV today make it so the Hybrids are more expensive long-term.

I disagree. If there were large chunks of the industry in the USA seriously going for PHEV it would really help because good PHEVs need home charging and it's largely a shared problem with BEV. PHEV can get by on 120Vx12A, but for good PHEV 240Vx16A (or even 204Vx30A) still offers benefits, there are a chunk of BEV owners, particularly urban apartment/condo dwellers who commute short distances, for whom 120Vx12A would be sufficient and many more for whom 240Vx16A is more than enough.

But CARB killed US PHEV with their current rules. What's particularly galling about what CARB did is that for 2026 and later they've changed the rules in a way that allows PHEV to count the same as a BEV if it has about 40 or more EPA AER. It will be able to count for up to 20% of credits. 10 years late, they've done what GM lobbied them to do, but with _less_ AER. (It just happens to suit Toyota, of course).

There _could_ be a risk that a push on PHEV-40 could have slowed down adoption of BEVs because of DCFC, but I don't think so, because if you have significant PHEV, you'd have at least a lot of BEV+PHEV demand.

 

[jerry33]

I disagree. If there were large chunks of the industry in the USA seriously going for PHEV it would really help because good PHEVs need home charging and it's largely a shared problem with BEV.

This assumes people actually plug them in. A few keen people do, but most just use them as a gas car.

 

[Mardak]

They changed the language a bit by dropping a couple of words - “coming soon”. Note: This is only for North America (US & Canada)

Is this reflecting the functionality that has been delivered to 400k+ vehicles in North America or for to-be-delivered vehicles? How much deferred revenue should be recognized in Q3?

With the price drop and "coming soon" message removed, perhaps the take rate will increase as well?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I doubt any of these are having much of an effect on Tesla. I actually believe most OEM's realize BEV's are the end game. They may do Hybrids to try to bridge but they realize they needs solid profitable BEV to be successful in the long term.

Agree, and most executives in legacy auto likely have a golden parachute because they know this end game. Most legacy auto are not demonstrating long term behavior, especially GM. Hybrids are profitable, EVs are not - Bottom line. There's no bridge in technology, frame up is different. Bridge in finance only works if serious about BEVs and behaving long-term (vs the usual window dressing that we see). Does anyone believe ICE and Hybrid sales are going to pay for a deficiency in Engineering skills and somehow shed the dealership model?

A Hybrid sold is most likely a BEV not sold. Therefore, to accelerate the world to EVs, Tesla would need to grow market share ASAP and extinguish legacy making Hybrids. The strategy is more challenging in China as they aggressively fill both channels (Hybrid/BEVs), but at least there's a chance they survive to become fully BEV. I don't see any path for legacy US, it just keeps getting harder, faster.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This assumes people actually plug them in. A few keen people do, but most just use them as a gas car.

Correct. This is exactly why I Edited my post to explain this. We don't need to go down this rat hole (again).

My point was that Methadone (Hybrid) does not mean you actually kicked Heroin (ICE), and the IRA basically gave out free Methadone. Addiction can be cunning...

 

[SOULPEDL]

But CARB killed US PHEV with their current rules.

California seems to lead the EPA by at least 10 years where pollution is concerned. So then why would California kill US PHEVs if not to reduce emissions? Wouldn't CARB encourage PHEVs if they helped reduce California emission goals? And there's the smoking gun.

 

[Todd Burch]

I will be sorry to see my P85 go. With TSLA's stock performance the last 1.5 years I wasn't feeling rich enough to go for a Plaid this time, but this LR X is still quicker than my old P85 . Got FSD, so a nice upgrade from AP1. If FSD succeeds and TSLA takes off again I'll probably add a Roadster anyway .

Bag one more for Q3 or Q4, kids. Put this in your book, Troy.

 

[insaneoctane]

If the UAW goes on strike as planned on the 15th Tesla would be foolish not to blast media with advertising. Inventories of the big 3 are back to historical if not elevated levels (good for them going into a strike) but if the UAW goes say 30+ days on strike it's equivalent to COVID shutdowns

If UAW goes on strike, isn't the most likely outcome simply that legacies margins are further reduced due to higher wages and benefits?

 

[EQC_]

Tesla cars will soon drive themselves. That is why there has never been any HUD, never been any 360° camera view while parking, and stalks are disappearing. In a few years, steering wheel/yoke will be gone too and we won't care all those things are missing... we will be busy doing other stuff (like taking another swig of our beer) while we ride.

Meanwhile, car brands where you have to do the driving yourself will look like dangerous antiques.

"Manual driving" will still be do-able in a Tesla via the touchscreen - for cases when FSD can't get you out of some mess

Elon is notoriously optimistic on timelines...but your post triggered a couple memories for me:

(1) at some point, before the Model 3 started production, Elon said or tweeted something about the "real" steering system being like something out of a spaceship. That was probably a reference to the yoke, but it probably turned out the 3 and/or FSD and/or customers weren't ready for it (by some Elon metric) when production started.

(2) when discussing the Model Y before production started, Elon said or tweeted something like: "...if it even has a steering wheel."


So...yeah ... like you said, the plan for many years now has been to reduce steering wheel and related controls and ultimately eliminate them.

And with those original timeline predictions in mind...at least EVERYBODY here should be happy that the plans were changed/delayed appropriately as FSD timelines stretched. Otherwise, Tesla would have come out with an undrivable and un-FSD-able Model Y in 2019 and the company and every stockholder would have been in a whole lot of hurt.

 

[InTheMiddle]

My two cents is that there should be one stalk with FSD and a button for the wiper/washer. The speed of the wiper can be set on the screen as that's seldom ever changed. FSD needs to be turned on and off quickly and the "distance/agressiveness" is frequently adjusted on trips. Turn signals can be on the wheel because FSD does most turn signals.

FSD should never need to be turned on or adjusted quickly, and turning it off would only need to be done quickly in the scenario where the driver is applying the brakes or steering in a manner different than what FSD would have done, and the braking / steering already automatically trigger turning off FSD. Engagements, 'casual' disengagements, and adjustments to the aggressiveness should all be in scenarios where the driver waiting second(s) to find a convenient time to focus on that part of the Dynamic Driving Task (DDT) is perfectly fine.

Turn signals, by contrast, are something used even when the human driver is in control. FSD does not care about the ergonomics of various controls, so for scenarios where "FSD does most turn signals" it wouldn't matter if there weren't even any turn signal controls. The physical controls, whether on the stalk or on the wheel, are strictly for humans, and for many scenarios (roundabouts, turns into the correct lane and then immediately merging into adjacent lanes for the next turn, etc) humans will be executing this maneuver while the steering wheel / steering yoke is rotated, and hence will have to consciously spacially locate the control and then press it, vs being able to rely entirely on muscle memory for a fixed-location stalk. Hence, there is a significant ergonomics difference, although it is still best to leave room for each human to have a personal preference which overrides even a reasonable physiology-of-a-human analysis, and perhaps have it be an option so everyone can have their preference.

 

[CHGolferJim]

If UAW goes on strike, isn't the most likely outcome simply that legacies margins are further reduced due to higher wages and benefits?

If meaningful to the bottom line of GM et al., higher UAW wages would further encourage legacy companies to invest in productivity technology, off shoring and other things to reduce headcount. Given the trend of union employment in the US (assume UAW is not immune), would higher wages have that much impact beyond short-term? Figures would be interesting.

 

[Usain]

They changed the language a bit by dropping a couple of words - “coming soon”.

Note: This is only for North America (US & Canada)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1698230509694828649

The "Yup" heard round the world!!!!

This is enormous good news.

 

[raffiniert]

The "Yup" heard round the world!!!!

This is enormous good news.

As soon as "round the world" also includes Europe... we are WAITING for FSD! Mind I remind Elon that Switzerland and Norway have one of the highest Tesla-per-person-ratios in the world?

 

[betstarship]

My brother and I went to Track Day yesterday at the Fremont Factory -

It's massive how much Tesla has scaled up from the last time we were there on 1/2013! Such an absolutely incredible, great event and experience. The Plaid S is for real and my Model 3, somehow even though its still awesome to me, feels old compared to the 2023 models by comparison.

 

[RED MDL3]

My brother and I went to Track Day yesterday at the Fremont Factory -

It's massive how much Tesla has scaled up from the last time we were there on 1/2013! Such an absolutely incredible, great event and experience.

There was a track day? How’d you get invited?

 

[betstarship]

Here's one photo and video:

Model S Plaid is super fast and it must be awesome working there as a driver!

https://imgur.com/a/J9EOrKu

Tesla Semi looks even better up close!