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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I think the best was when he went on CNBC and debated against Toilet boy. They asked Gali how many shares he owned and he said something like >100. 🤣
Pretty sure it was 60 but to his credit that was pre-pre-split so today that would be 900 shares which is worth $225k. Not too shabby for money he made walking dogs (yes, Gali posted on Twitter/X that he was walking dogs to get extra cash to buy $TSLA)
 
Yep, and they're installing more renewables, more than California.

Ultimately morons don't matter, what matters is a government that is conductive to *build* things.
Yeah, and I understand there’s a sizable electric vehicle factory there, too.
 
Perhaps it is more simple. Batteries lead the way. Constrained supply through mid 24 or so could dampen scaling briefly. CT is going to use a LOT of batteries IMO.
I don't think Tesla is slow walking the Mexico factory, but I can definitely see a case for sorting out the battery supply before building the factory.

Some of the Lithium supply might be dependent on the Corpus Christi refinery.

Aside from raw materials, 4680 production equipment, engineers to install the equipment and train the local staff are possible constraints.

Resources might be being juggled, considering there are 4680 ramps in progress, or planned, for Austin, Berlin and Sparks.

It does take time to do the earthworks and build the building, IMO if Tesla could start on that now they probably would, I expect construction to start before the end of the year, I don't know if winter in Mexico would impact on the construction schedule, but I suspect it may be a good time to do construction.
 
I took a look at that and where the numbers came from. The intent is to recover lost gasoline tax revenue. I get that. The methodology is lazy however, as $200 is just derived from state average gas milage and average annual miles driven. Unfortunately, there’s no good way I know of to ascertain actual miles driven for a more fair assessment (Texas is abolishing annual vehicle inspections, which could have supplied that info.)
 
Let's look a recent social media post from the byline: Craig Trudell - Bloomberg.com | Authors

Craig Trudell on X: "“Is it *best* practices for a company to lend its CEO $1 billion secured by his own stock in the company? Oh no. But it’s Elon Musk.” SpaceX Loaned Elon Musk Some Money" / X (3:35 am ET · Sep 7, 2023)​

Yes that's right: the same day this 'journalist' is spreading fear about deliveries, he's slagging Elon on the former Twitter (ironic free speech, wot?). No mention that SpaceX is a *privately held company, and that Elon owns more than half it's equity. Or that the loan was for less than 2% of his equity. Or that Elon paid it back with interest in less than a month.

Good grief, what a stretch. Bloomberg has shoddy ethics (should be called Boomburg).

TL;dr This is yet-another hit piece from Bloomberg by an known Musk detractor. Trudell should be taken with a huge grain of NaCl+.

Cheers to the Longs!

Good grief indeed. Trudell is quoting Matt Levine's Money Stuff newsletter here. That's it. It's a good newsletter that highlights unusual financial stuff every day. It's not "slagging Elon" and the "free speech" comment is just confusing.
 
I've been seeing this as well. I can say that despite the inventory jump, I'm sitting at a sales/service center right now (blown strut on my 3 - don't ask) and this place is HOPPING in the sales area. Not just people that ordered and are picking up, but I've seen repeated customers drive/walk in and talk to sales staff and place an order. There is a lot of foot traffic, and that seems to be the norm.
My sales center in San Diego (Carlsbad) was also hopping yesterday. Lots of activity compared to the latest time I was there. Is that the same one you went to @bkp_duke ?
 
What's next after Gali? We'll make our investing decisions based on "Tesla Economist"?

Let me read what he'd said last year and how it played out.
The option to block a YouTube channel will be a killer feature 😂.. Even if I click on “Don’t recommend this channel”, these buffoons still appear on search results.

Worst offender of all is this Rosenfeld dude.. He’s so lazy AND scumbaggy that he doesn’t even bother changing the fake thumbnails or the fake titles! Did you know the secret is out and you don’t have to pay? 😂

1694145143463.jpeg
 
Not sure if it posted already

Key sentence begins:
With at least six chargers at each of the selected hotels, ...

That probably means they will use Tesla's billing. Tesla takes 1c/kWh, price is set by host. Plug-and-charge AC for Teslas, presumably using Tesla App for others. Universal Wall Connectors are $595.

Let me repeat that: plug-and-charge AC for Teslas. I hope adopting NACS will also allow plug-and-charge AC for other manufacturers and the industry can move to universal plug-and-charge.
 
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Schwab completed the absorption of my TD Ameritrade account this past weekend. Now if I review my portfolio, I get a glaring "F" rating on my TSLA investment. I never asked them what they thought.
So while we're on the subject of unsolicited advice, Schwab and JP Morgan get negative ratings from me for their F'n advice.

The arrogance and mendacity of Wall Street is breathtaking...

*edited for accuracy

It tells me I have 96.x% in an F stock and the rest in a D stock. I guess schwab thinks all tech stocks are crappy.

it's ok I'll get rid of the shares of that D rated stock and go all F rated at some point if they don't upgrade the rating on TSLA before I do that.
 
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According to this timestamped part of Randy Kirk/Brian White video, CATL have dropped battery prices by 19%. Explains the Megapack pricing being reduced.

I hadn't noticed this news, sorry if it's a repeat. Detail in the spoiler.



1:56
um I just saw a reporting this morning
1:58
uh actually this morning this is
2:00
actually probably Thursday but so that
2:02
would have been Tuesday morning when
2:03
we're recording this I saw a reporting
2:06
today as we're recording this that said
2:09
that catl dropped the price of the
2:11
batteries by 19 plus percent

2:16
Now remind me what's the biggest expense
2:19
in any electric vehicle
2:23
batteries maybe oh oh is it because I
2:25
thought in the case of lucid it was
2:27
Peter rawlinson's compensation package
2:29
and yeah talk about oh God a third of a
2:34
TR of a billion dollars how does he
2:36
sleep at night I guess on a really good
2:38
bed on a big pile of cash
2:45
all right so if the catl if this is a
2:49
good reporting and the reporting was the
2:51
kind of reporting where the specificity
2:53
made you believe it which made me why we
2:56
shouldn't believe it but it makes sense
2:58
the cost of lithium has just nosedive
3:01
and lithium was a big part of the deal
3:04
um so and and catl and it's clear that
3:07
CA till has way that all of the battery
3:10
manufacturers right now have more than
3:12
enough capacity for the market so that
3:15
would be another reason to drop price


View attachment 971750


In theory there shouldn't need to be a price drop on Megapack just because battery prices reduce. We saw that with vehicles in the pandemic where Tesla was able to extract extra margin. It's great that batteries are continuing to follow the cost decline curve and great for the mission that Tesla can lower megapack prices while maintaining margin but I'm cautious about linking the price drop to cogs rather than to wider market dynamics.
 
In theory there shouldn't need to be a price drop on Megapack just because battery prices reduce. We saw that with vehicles in the pandemic where Tesla was able to extract extra margin. It's great that batteries are continuing to follow the cost decline curve and great for the mission that Tesla can lower megapack prices while maintaining margin but I'm cautious about linking the price drop to cogs rather than to wider market dynamics.
The video suggested that price changing clauses are common / definitely in Megapack contracts. I don't know, but that was the suggestion.
 
Could add an approximate fuel surcharge by taxing tires. Folks getting 80K out of a set of tires are generally not as hard on the roads as those heavy ones getting 15K per set....just saying if you want to replace the fuel tax in a similar "per mile" fashion, electricity isn't ideal because it gets used on a LOT of non-vehicle applications. Tires, do roughly translate to per mile costs. Plus we could then collect taxes from ICEVs at the pump AND with tires 😉
As a general rule it is unwise to tax safety-related purchases.

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It seems mainstream media struggles with the concept of brake vs break, however auto-obesity is spellable. The anti-EV FUDsters are big on saying that EVs cause more road damage than other vehicles due to heavier weights (something that is partially technically correct but very misleading due to the bloatware issues). Anyway Tesla would do well to explain that regenerative braking means less brake dust in the atmosphere. I'd also be interested to know to what extent it might lead to less tyre-wear due to smoother accelerations and decelerations as some folk seem to get very long ranges out of their tyres.


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News:
* This CNBC article tells of Tesla's big deal with Hilton. The hotel chain is going to install somewhere between 12,000 and 20,000 Tesla chargers (capable of both NACS and CCS) throughout the various hotels, with a minimum of 6 chargers per hotel.
Here are the existing charger statistics for comparison so as to put the Hilton deal in perspective. It is quite material imho.

1694163390267.png


1694162892956.png
 
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As a general rule it is unwise to tax safety-related purchases.

===============

It seems mainstream media struggles with the concept of brake vs break, however auto-obesity is spellable. The anti-EV FUDsters are big on saying that EVs cause more road damage than other vehicles due to heavier weights (something that is partially technically correct but very misleading due to the bloatware issues). Anyway Tesla would do well to explain that regenerative braking means less brake dust in the atmosphere. I'd also be interested to know to what extent it might lead to less tyre-wear due to smoother accelerations and decelerations as some folk seem to get very long ranges out of their tyres.


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Here are the existing charger statistics for comparison so as to put the Hilton deal in perspective. It is quite material imho.

View attachment 971910

View attachment 971908
I believe the Hilton deal is for Destination Chargers, not Superchargers?

In any case, when looking at the numbers above, it's also worth remembering that Teslas charge 2x faster now than then did in 2020, which effectively doubles the availability of stalls