Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

UAW is set to strike this midnight. They target production plants that will cause other production plants to shut down. The stuff they want is crazy and Ford said they would have lost 14 billion over the last 4 years if UAW's demand were met.

But yeah what the UAW demand is pretty crazy like 32hr work week and a 40% pay increase immediately.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702504597166641651

UAW update: United Auto Workers, automakers remain far from a deal as strike deadline approaches

The UAW union and Detroit's three automakers remain far apart in contract talks, and the union is preparing to strike.

abc7ny.com

 

[bkp_duke]

UAW is set to strike this midnight. They target production plants that will cause other production plants to shut down. The stuff they want is crazy and Ford said they would have lost 14 billion over the last 4 years if UAW's demand were met.

But yeah what the UAW demand is pretty crazy like 32hr work week and a 40% pay increase immediately.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702504597166641651

UAW update: United Auto Workers, automakers remain far from a deal as strike deadline approaches

The UAW union and Detroit's three automakers remain far apart in contract talks, and the union is preparing to strike.

abc7ny.com

So, for the big 3 and any suppliers that are unionized, what are their options? Can they "bust" the unions and go fill positions with non-union labor? Will they ramp up production in plants abroad?

Seems to me their only course of action is to try to get the UAW as low as possible, and then over the course of a few years fire off employees as sales sink.

Death spiral exacerbated by the UAW?




BTW, I really think the UPS/Teamsters negotiation brought all these wacky demands forward. UPS had no backbone and gave in completely.

 

[2daMoon]

What if...

...Ford closed their UAW plants permanently, entered bankruptcy, and restructured to built Ford's EV business without the ICE, Union, legacy engineering, and dealership anchors hanging around their neck?

It amuses me to dream of things like this even if they are far-fetched.

 

[AudubonB]

I think we should look into what automotive supply companies are UAW - and which of those also supply Tesla. A back of the earlobe guess here: some, but very few. Maybe I can learn something of the UAW's reach: how far upstream from assembly plants they have traveled.

On edit, to keep this as a single post. From the UAW's website, although they do declare their members aren't just autobuilders, it seems their reach - bizarre a group though it is - is limited to, in toto:

• medical supplies, wax buffing pads and loofah bath scrubs
• commercial dishwashers
• soup kettles
• (naval) ship designing
• gambling casino employees
• Dept.ofAgric. staff (in Puerto Rico only)

plus..."automotive parts for Volvo's Macungie, PA, Mack Truck plant"

And that's all. Sure hope I can still get my back scrub brush during any strike.

 

[betstarship]

Graduate researchers too...at least in the state of California

Negotiations underway for first contract for Graduate Student Researchers | UCnet

 

[Cosmacelf]

What if...

...Ford closed their UAW plants permanently, entered bankruptcy, and restructured to built Ford's EV business without the ICE, Union, legacy engineering, and dealership anchors hanging around their neck?

It amuses me to dream of things like this even if they are far-fetched.

Ford family shareholders, indeed all shareholders, would think this is a particularly crappy idea.

 

[2daMoon]

Ford family shareholders, indeed all shareholders, would think this is a particularly crappy idea.

I never said it would amuse them.

But, honestly, what do they have to look forward to over the long term if they continue to sell both ICE and EV in a parasitic relationship to one another?

 

[betstarship]

First plants in line

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
The demise of the OEMs Rotating? strikes start any minute now
FSD discussion Douma and DaveT on V12
Elon Musk Biography By Walter Isaacson Walter and Rob chat
"Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process Single base gigacasting?
Tesla Energy and utility scale projects Autobidder profits
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot 6-10 weeks? until production ramp starts

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702494684130476494

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702483812016349354

CT event soon?

50,000th:

 

[Phobi]

View attachment 973952

First plants in line

Will probably need to wait and see next week with Canadian operations/UNIFOR negotiations but I'm sure you all know where my strike money is going...

 

[betstarship]

Will probably need to wait and see next week with Canadian operations/UNIFOR negotiations but I'm sure you all know where my strike money is going...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

[SPadival]

Ol Ron upping his YouTube game .. I always hated it when CNBS published only little bits of his interviews & I was forced to suffer through SMR’s idiotic “reaction videos” to see the full interview.

Please and subscribe

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You're taking your extended family's money to buy TSLA for yourself...?

Umm....YES!

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

Midnight traders are rewarding TSLA right now and punishing F

 

[Acroyear]

Again, the #s I cited are from tesla and list total installed capacity at those 2 plants.

Those #s would need to (slightly) more than double for 2024 to hit the targets folks have suggested here.

Do you find it realistic they can not only more than double their physically installed capacity for where it is today, but actually get to that run rate, by January 2024 (because if it took them to say June they'd now need triple instead of double with only 6 months of run rate)? Especially given they haven't even hit full run rate of the already installed capacity so far?

I agree both locations have plenty of ROOM for more installed capacity- there's just no indication at all it will exist and be fully running in the timeframes suggested.

I’m not making any claims or estimates about Tesla’s production rate in 2024. I was responding to those members who seem to feel that new factories are required to hit the targets. If you don’t feel doubling capacity in an existing factory is realistic, then I don’t see how building a new factory is a better option.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Chanos still shorting Tsla. The guy is really addicted

Haha, Elon posted it best earlier today" (which prolly rankled Chanos to no end)

"He should change his name to Thanos, because he made half his money disappear."​

Haha, Thanos. He was wrong on Solar, wrong on EVs, and now he wants to be wrong on AI to complete the hattrick. It takes a special kind of pigheadness to talk yourself into that much pain and loss (but ol' Jimbo seems up to the task).

And he's self-contradictory, too! First, he says 'every couple of months Tesla investors trot out something new'. Then in the next breath, Chanos says Tesla has been wrong on their approach to AI for 7 years, and they ADMITTED IT!! That's some Mil-Spec stupidity right there!

What. a. Baffoon. And who was the GLJ Jr wannabee perched right next to him? I want to add that little birdie to my list of ignorees...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ford closed their UAW plants permanently, entered bankruptcy

Ford Motors isn't bankrupt. That's when you run out of money to pay bills. If they closed plants, management would get fired by the Board of Directors. Further, most union labor contracts include job security clauses. There is no easy way out of this Detroit quagmire.

IMO, Ford should offer profit sharing tied to productivity with a Cost-of-Living guarantee for wages, nothing more. Who famously called Tesla "structurally unprofitable"? Where's that guy?

 

[Artful Dodger]

@MC3OZ wrote:
A new factory can unlock additional workforce resources, and additional market access, however it typically takes longer.

Both expansion and new factories require battery cells, battery raw materials, production equipment and space within a building.

If there is spare space within an existing building with 4680 battery production, or existing casting and stamping facilities, then that is going to be faster and easier than building a new factory.

New factories are important but are unlikely to add significant additional capacity in 2024, most of that has to come from existing factories.

In the case of Austin, I think the cathode plant is important. There is a reason why this was co-located, and why it was built before the Lithium refinery. If the Cathode plant supports more 4680 production at Austin, that is an important part of more vehicle production.

Cathode materials from Austin being shipped to other factories is a possibility.

Except when you're Tesla. A slab of concrete, a tent, and some scrap conveyor machines was turned into the 2nd (and now permanent) Fremont Model 3 line inside a month back in Spring of 2018. That's when I invested, damn straight, it was do-or-die time...

Sprung Project: Tesla - Automotive, Manufacturing www.sprung.com › projects › tesla

Within just 19 days, Sprung delivered and built an innovative structure made with our patented tensioned membrane technology. Measuring 137,250 square feet, the ...

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702366197738557718

 

[Pezpunk]

Threads of the day:
The demise of the OEMs Rotating? strikes start any minute now
FSD discussion Douma and DaveT on V12
Elon Musk Biography By Walter Isaacson Walter and Rob chat
"Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process Single base gigacasting?
Tesla Energy and utility scale projects Autobidder profits
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot 6-10 weeks? until production ramp starts

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702494684130476494

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702483812016349354

CT event soon?

50,000th:
View attachment 973944

Possible alternate explanation: 4680s are performing poorly. We already know Tesla has these vehicles charging at around half the rate of 2170/18650 packs. I wouldn’t be eager to introduce a new product line (cybertruck) with a gimped charging rate, particularly a product that is insanely high-profile and going to so many EV first-timers.