That would be sweet.
I understood most of that but not sure what V2 means reference 4680’s. Is that version 2? If so are they now making a second version of the 4680 format?
Thanks in advance.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I understood most of that but not sure what V2 means reference 4680’s. Is that version 2? If so are they now making a second version of the 4680 format?
Thanks in advance.
With @Buckminster's always helpful threads of the day as partial context I make this my first post in about three weeks. During that time I have been busy, being asked to drive a 'new' 2023 Kia Niro for more than a week in Corfu, then was induced to hold discussions regarding several related issues; 1. Solar and wind power, 2. reusable rockets and space exploration, 3. labor policy for EV production, 4. EV technology evolution, 5. winners and losers in each.
I was to find that all these interconnected topics were in part raised together due to the early readings of Mr. Issacson's latest tome.That background was conveniently facilitated by offering me an uninterrupted, more or less, 24 hours to read and absorb that book.
Needless to say my head was rapidly spinning. Following my 30 hour long airplane journey I was treated to the Automotive News issue excepts of the day:
UAW launches historic strike against all 3 Detroit automakers; Barra hopes for quick resolution
Tesla closes in on car manufacturing breakthrough
Tesla appears to have solved the "gigacast dilemma," which will allow the automaker to slash EV manufacturing costs.
www.autonews.com
Tesla closes in on car manufacturing breakthrough
Tesla appears to have solved the "gigacast dilemma," which will allow the automaker to slash EV manufacturing costs.
www.autonews.com
So, I will list in order my tentative conclusions. Other than the two Automotive News links I will not provide other references since each has dedicated threads. The conclusions I reach are that we are reaching the inevitable clash between the past and the future, unlike any other since the Industrial revolution. 'Reaching' vs 'reached' only because denialism is overwhelming facts at this point.
1. Solar and wind- It is now simple, clear and obvious. Solar and wind combine with storage to make other options all more expensive and less dependable. Resistance is formidable even in transparently obvious situations, such as islands. No question!
2. Reusability and rapid iteration are inevitable BUT no 'established' players are capable of doing either. As with '1' above, the formidable resistance is tottering, but still capable of learning.
3. Ah, labor policy. Everyone seems to ignore the singularity rushing in except for the IG Metall/UAW people who both insist on 'protecting' engine and powertrain workers, while nearly everyone discusses the wag demands. Right now we're negotiating to 'protect' farriers and whip makers and resisting any progress at all.
4. EV technology. Automotive News captured the issue succinctly without saying anything explicitly. The two links are on opposite sides fo the front page. The Unions was a richer status quo, while Tesla is riveting new vastly cheaper ways to build cars.
5. Winners and losers: That is now obvious Tesla/BYD/CATL/Vestas/LONGi et al are the winners, Legacy are the losers. SpaceX vs everyone else. Will that change?
As Mr. Isaacson explains, with extreme capability and accomplishments come demons. It remains to be seen if conquering demons is enough. Still, from Mr Isaacson's other books comes the fundamental dilemma between success and destruction, but the changes have been already begun, and time does not regress but stagnation or regression in humanity is always plausible.
Next, trivially. That Kia Niro is proof positive that really excellent ICE engineers will produce a very nice vehicle that minimizes crucial things such as regenerative braking but impresses anybody who knows nothing about how to build elective vehicles.
So, it works, but is not a Tesla! Oddly my conclusions were surprising to the audience, none of whom had actually driven a modern BEV, i.e. Tesla.
My conclusions about the presently evolving labor crises are that politicians will invariably fail to understand fundamental issues so can be related upon to make the wrong choices, especially when they are very, very old.
This should be a time for massive effort to stop worsening fires, floods, droughts. Given the present political conditions of the world nothing much will be done.
I'm old enough that shareholdings will fund my life easily. For young people today I shudder to think of the horrors they'll face.
Am I prejudiced by being so recently surrounded by fires, floods and ignorance of available technology? Influenced, yes. Prejudiced, no!
Stay long TSLA!
MOD: Yet another timely and insightful post from this contributor; it has been enshrined in the "...of Particular Merit" thread.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
My unfortunate observation is that they don't get confounded very often
GhostSkater
Member
4680 V2, aka Cybercell, has a longer jelly roll and uses DBE both on anode and cathode, this results in 10% energy increase, keep in mind this is not 10% energy density increase, while it will also increase, I don’t think it will hit 10%
For the cell design part, the changed how the cell cap is made, instead of being crimped and having that complex copper flower for the current to flow, now the lid of the cell is laser welded, and also the shingles of the tabless electrode are laser welded directly to the cell lid
Best part is no part, 4680 V1 has 16 parts, V2 has 15
I think this is the video that best sumarizes it
The first Supercharger was a single 90 kW prototype put into service in Harris Ranch, CA. IIRC, it looked nothing like current SC stalls at all. I have a picture of it somewhere, but can’t find it right now. I charged at it in February 2013. They soon after expanded Harris Ranch with a bunch of v1 superchargers and took the prototype out of service.
That’s a roadster charger circa 2010. There used to be one at Harris Ranch back in the day. Actually it might still be there.
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Back in about 2009, a friend/neighbor of mine who was an early Tesla employee (now retired) and I were driving to Los Angeles. He'd been telling me how the Roadster owners had set up a bunch of charging stations for long distance driving - including one at Harris Ranch. We stopped there for lunch, looked around, and found the charging station. Just saw him a couple days ago and we reminisced for a minute about how Harris Ranch has grown since then!
Early roadster owners were real pioneers. Even with a stop at Harris ranch, going from the Bay Area to LA required driving at 55 mph
I've followed RMI for a long time. Very forward looking, policy- and big-picture oriented while still having a dash of technical info for us engineering nerds.
X-Change: Cars - RMI
In X-change: Cars, RMI shows that the rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) means that global oil demand for cars has already peaked and will be in freefall by 2030.rmi.org
pretty good report ... some heavy reading .. funded by Bezos
i have not been keeping up with thread so this may have been posted already
Are they Bezos funded? I am under the impression they have a variety of funding sources / donations.
Very informative. Thank you. So I’m assuming this is what will go in the Cybertruck. Has the slow charge curve or however it’s expressed improved as well?
Who We Are
The Earth Fund was created by a commitment of $10 billion from Jeff Bezos in 2020 to be disbursed as grants to address climate and nature within the…
www.bezosearthfund.org
multiple sources i am sure you are correct ... they called out Bezos for this report
I see - thank you. Looks like they partnered with the Earth Fund folks on this.Who We Are
The Earth Fund was created by a commitment of $10 billion from Jeff Bezos in 2020 to be disbursed as grants to address climate and nature within the…
multiple sources i am sure you are correct ... they called out Bezos for this report
Regardless, may the S curve continue with alacrity.
Interestingly, I read (WaPo, paywalled likely, sorry) today that eastern Oregon (very politically red) wants to split off from western Oregon (very politically blue) and join their neighboring state to the east, Idaho. In large part because of fear/resentment of Oregon's recent move to eliminate ICE sales in 2035, with various culture war disagreements also in the mix.
That RMI report (and many other things) seem to indicate ICE will have lost the battle well before that ban comes into effect.
This is not to downplay concerns about lack of electric farm equipment, which is a battle that must be won before rural areas will fully come on board, and is quite a different beast than our tiny 4-door sedans and SUVs.
GhostSkater
Member
Yes, there is plenty of room for improvement, see the post I did a while ago here, and you can find a more detailed thread on X
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
Don’t know about you guys. I am getting PTSD from listening to “Production hell”, “pedo guy” and “funding secured” sections of Isaacson’s book 😳 To the post-those things” 👆Tesla investors: Don’t moan about Elon buying Twitter. Elon is a stable genius compared to those days 😂
teslamotorsclub.com
Looks like no less than 20.8 Million shares traded hands during the 4pm closing cross. Wow!
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I know most of us are in touch with how the stock has moved over the last few years, but consider the 2-year chart below. Tesla has, thus far, been successful at preventing their workforce from unionizing. Their primary method, IMO, has been through offering fair wages and stock options/SPP. While the options/SPP have historically been very lucrative, this chart depicts a very different outcome for folks that have started just a few years ago. On top of what has been uncharacteristically unimpressive gains with their options /SPP, they now get to hear about "the other guys" potentially getting 46% raises, old-school pensions, and 32 hour work weeks. I know many of us just think HODL and try to ignore how WS/MM/Hedgies ride this stock so damn hard, but the timing of this strike with the stock's 2 year performance might make keeping the unions at bay harder than usual for Tesla.
BTW- I do realize that the argument should be as simple as asking workers if they'd rather have GM's compensation pkg for a few years only to inevitably lose their jobs in bankruptcy, or keep their current package with modest increases, significant stock "upside", and almost guaranteed employment with a stable, fast growing, future oriented company...
BTW- I do realize that the argument should be as simple as asking workers if they'd rather have GM's compensation pkg for a few years only to inevitably lose their jobs in bankruptcy, or keep their current package with modest increases, significant stock "upside", and almost guaranteed employment with a stable, fast growing, future oriented company...
I’m sure there will be some “short term thinkers” that will want to unionize if the UAW is successful. Hopefully there are enough at Tesla who would vote against it.
If Tesla unionizes, I’m selling my TSLA.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Also bear in mind that Telsa has IIRC 1-2 periods a year where employees can purchase shares at a discount via the SPP (15% sticks out in my head for some reason, but someone here will know for sure).
That's in incredible arbitrage opportunity for those employees, even if they have zero intention of holding the shares. Buy direct from Tesla, then sell immediately, pocket 15%.
I fully expect Tesla will have to push up wages, it's just the job environment that has been created from this mess, but there are a lot of other factors besides the pay rate itself that have to be factored in.
GhostSkater
Member
Ok, not what I was expecting, which would be a simple switch to 4680 V2 to help with Cybertruck ramp
Inside source saying that Kato Rd will shut down in November for 3 months for complete revamp of the production line
John speculates that this means it will be a third generation equipment and cell, including silicon this time
It makes sense since the cathode plant at Giga Texas should come online early next year, and also, makes no sense to make one small 10 GWh 4680 V2 line there while Texas already have four 25 GWh lines, some working, some commissioning
Inside source saying that Kato Rd will shut down in November for 3 months for complete revamp of the production line
John speculates that this means it will be a third generation equipment and cell, including silicon this time
It makes sense since the cathode plant at Giga Texas should come online early next year, and also, makes no sense to make one small 10 GWh 4680 V2 line there while Texas already have four 25 GWh lines, some working, some commissioning
With a line worker making $34/hr and 15% discount on stock and a contribution maximum of 15% of compensation, I calculate the pre-tax windfall to be $1625/year, or equivalent to a 2.3% salary increase. This disregards the opportunity cost of tying up 15% of their wages during the offering period.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
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