A lot of loading docks don't even keep their rubber bumpers and levelers/plates up to snuff lol
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Those numbers are crazy if Troy is accurate. Shanghai + Berlin production isn't even down much despite Highland, US production down almost 25% is something else.
Troy has a pretty good track record within a reasonable range of accuracy, so yeah. We all had a good idea P&D would be down for Q3, but I'm sure we all hoped the numbers wouldn't be down quite that much.
We'll know for sure in two days.
Earnings are what I'm more worried about. With the price cuts making lower margins, coupled with these lower P&D numbers, I'm a bit worried how the earnings report is going to go. It's the first ER I've felt worried about in years for Tesla.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Hah! Maybe less corners than a product intended for domestic Chinese consumption.
Now quizz me this: what fraction of the premium foreign product has Chinese sub-components ?
The Chinese are fully capable of making high quality components. The supply chain for Tesla Shanghai is fully localized. In China, you get what you are willing to pay for. Very often the junk comes out of the same factory as the crap.
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Dreadnought
Member
"...so the operator, even if it's first day of job [sic], they cannot mix it up."
Everyone who saw Optimus' latest performance, draw your own conclusions.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
When deliveries significantly exceed production, I this this usually helps the numbers.
It's not about the Chinese are capable or incapable of making quality things. 99% is management inserting corrupt practices such as corner cutting and committing fraud to make a buck. The people are the hardest working and perhaps even the smartest, but greed is also the strongest.
The reason why Chinese trust foreign brands more is due to higher standard of quality control. When the management are not held accountable by foreign standards, the product has a high likelihood of a standard "meh good enough ".
Take disney pins, something simple and easy. Ones bought from Disney will have perfect corners and color. Ones made from the same factory but doesn't go through Disney's quality control and are sold as fake ends up having all sorts of errors.
That's a good point, costs for inventory vehicles produced would have been realized in Q2 but the revenue would be recognized in Q3 for the deliveries and not offset by more undelivered production in the quarter.
But that is also kinda just QoQ noise
To me it seems pretty clear that production is being modulated to better match order flow rather than continue producing at max pace
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
How much Media are you consuming? You might benefit from cutting back on the steady diet of spam, fud, and b.s.
Q2 cars sold in Q3 are not pure profit. Costs are carried with the vehicle as inventory until sold (or otherwise disposed of). Then they transfer from the balance sheet to the income statement. So a Q2 build sold in Q3 hits cost of revenue the same as a Q3 build (ignoring changes in BOM and factory efficiency which follow the car).
weekend OT
been getting tired of relatives & such going "what's it co$t to fuel, how fast, etc"
so 31,115 miles in 16 months MYLR
8,420 kwh total
7,280 kwh super chargers $2,596.85 for 26,902 miles at 9.7 cents a mile (road tripping)
1,140 kwh from sunshine $29.64 for 4,213 miles (2.6 cents a kwh) (local driving within ~150 - 200 mile range)
(354 miles and still in Florida! SMOG!)
overall 8.4 cents per mile fuel costs ($8.40 to go 100 miles so a bit more than the above gallon of gas using mostly superchargers at a bit over 35 cents a kwh.
So 86 percent of my driving is long range road tripping (2 3,500 mile trips,) it's still less expensive than fossil fuel
(last trip passed
edit:
(speed limit was 60-65, Polestar tried to keep up then dropped back to around 45-50 so surmised was "range anxious" in a charging desert between Ocala Florida and Jacksonville Florida)
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Dang, well don't say I never tried to be unrealistically bullish
The best one was "Ross Gerber put out a false tweet alleging that my father worked for GM, that is insulting"
Someone's response "Didn't you tweet that your father worked for GM?"
Gojo "I am not answering that any further"
I know the focus this weekend is on PD numbers and most of us are a bit disappointed at the length of time GigaTexas was shut down. Indeed, even though folks are back at work there, it appears they are building mostly "test" cars. All of that has me intrigued though. I mean, "what exactly are they doing with the Model Y there?". I think the initial assumption is the Y line was getting some efficiency improvements, but the changes seem to be more material given:
a.) the need for crash testing
b.) the number of cars in the "test" lot
c.) what appear to be cars in different colors (or man, that paint booth needs calibration!)
Crash testing implies more than just a "we sped up how we do X" - it would seem to imply a change (or changes) to the car itself. It may not be huge, but something.
I almost wonder if they are taking this opportunity to move "part of the way" toward Juniper - not out of character for Tesla to make incremental changes, but this one must be decently sized. This could help spur sales or perhaps just shave costs out of the car (i.e. a reduction of parts could require crash testing).
On the downside, it isn't clear to me that "come Monday" (aka start of Q4) they will be back at full production. They could still be testing, etc. and thus we start Q4 a little more behind the 8-ball in terms of PD than I had hoped.
Unfortunately, we may not know any specifics until earnings even if the start delivering cars sooner.
Never a dull moment on the Tesla train!
a.) the need for crash testing
b.) the number of cars in the "test" lot
c.) what appear to be cars in different colors (or man, that paint booth needs calibration!)
Crash testing implies more than just a "we sped up how we do X" - it would seem to imply a change (or changes) to the car itself. It may not be huge, but something.
I almost wonder if they are taking this opportunity to move "part of the way" toward Juniper - not out of character for Tesla to make incremental changes, but this one must be decently sized. This could help spur sales or perhaps just shave costs out of the car (i.e. a reduction of parts could require crash testing).
On the downside, it isn't clear to me that "come Monday" (aka start of Q4) they will be back at full production. They could still be testing, etc. and thus we start Q4 a little more behind the 8-ball in terms of PD than I had hoped.
Unfortunately, we may not know any specifics until earnings even if the start delivering cars sooner.
Never a dull moment on the Tesla train!
MartinAustin
Active Member
Shanghai and Austin factories were shut down a bit... haven't there been little Q3 shutdowns at Fremont too? (Can't remember exactly)
But... GigaNevada never shut down to my knowledge. Still cranking out 2270s and drivetrains. Which means there is a U.S. stockpile, and in Q4 the factories will be able to use more batteries due to the efficiency ramps.
i.e. BUMPER Q4
But... GigaNevada never shut down to my knowledge. Still cranking out 2270s and drivetrains. Which means there is a U.S. stockpile, and in Q4 the factories will be able to use more batteries due to the efficiency ramps.
i.e. BUMPER Q4
Everyone is assuming all of the 4680s produced at Austin are going into Cybertrucks.
One possibility is that 2170s now go into standard range Model Ys at Austin, with 4680s going into long range and performance Model Ys.
The reason I suggest this is it may support Austin ramping to higher volumes of Model Y production, especially for Q4.
It mainly depends on how well 4680 production is going at Austin.
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