Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[navguy12]

Great post on X on Elon’s answers to the most-voted questions on the ER on Say — I must say, spot on likely true that we’ll just get a bunch of waffling non-answers

Here are the answers Elon will give us:

How many Cybertruck deliveries do you anticipate for 2024?
--> "For the Cybertruck deliveries in 2024, we're aiming to make significant progress. It's a unique vehicle and there's been a lot of interest. However, ramping up production is always a challenge, so while we're optimistic, I can't give a precise number right now."

When do you expect model 3 Highland to be available in US?
--> "The Model 3 Highland is something we're excited about. We're working hard to get it to the US market as soon as possible. It's always about getting the details right to ensure quality. Bear with us as we finalize the timeline."

Can you provide a progress update on the 4680 Cell? Particularly progress towards performance improvements and cost savings outlined on battery day.
--> "The 4680 Cell is a significant advancement for us. We're seeing good progress on performance improvements and cost efficiencies. Remember, it's not just about the cell, but about integrating it into our vehicles and ensuring longevity and safety. We're on track with what we've presented on battery day."

Could you please provide an update on (i) capacity expansion plans for the company's factories in Berlin and Austin and (ii) the opening schedule of Gigafactory Mexico?
--> "Berlin and Austin are both moving at a good pace. We're pushing the boundaries in both locations. As for Gigafactory Mexico, we're in the early stages, but we're excited about the potential there. We'll keep everyone updated as things progress."

Why was the price dropped on FSD if it is getting better and robotaxi is expected so soon?
--> "Improving technology and scaling often allows for cost reductions. The price drop for FSD is reflective of our commitment to make autonomous driving more accessible. The goal is to get as many people as possible using it safely."

Mercedes is accepting legal liability for when its Level 3 autonomous driving system, Drive Pilot, is active. Is Tesla planning to accept legal liability for FSD, and if so, when?
--> "Safety is our top priority with FSD. We're constantly refining and improving the system. As for liability, we believe in our product, but we'll have to see how regulations evolve and make decisions accordingly."

Current sell side consensus assumes that Tesla will deliver ~2.3 million vehicles in 2024, representing 28% growth vs. 2023 guidance. Is this growth rate achievable without any mass-market launches in 2024, and when does Tesla expect to return to its 50% long-term CAGR?
--> "We're always pushing the envelope, and while I won't confirm or deny that specific number, we're confident in our growth trajectory. As for the 50% CAGR, it's a goal, but there are many variables in play. We'll keep driving innovation and pushing boundaries."

(Credit: @QnenAlex)
https://x.com/qnenalex/status/1713670968319647937?s=46&t=h4O4UMPqHcbEi-gvTZklCw

Was this some sort of exercise involving something like a Chat GTP generated set of answers in the style of EM? /s

 

[EQC_]

Great post on X on Elon’s answers to the most-voted questions on the ER on Say — I must say, spot on likely true that we’ll just get a bunch of waffling non-answers

Here are the answers Elon will give us:

How many Cybertruck deliveries do you anticipate for 2024?
--> "For the Cybertruck deliveries in 2024, we're aiming to make significant progress. It's a unique vehicle and there's been a lot of interest. However, ramping up production is always a challenge, so while we're optimistic, I can't give a precise number right now."

When do you expect model 3 Highland to be available in US?
--> "The Model 3 Highland is something we're excited about. We're working hard to get it to the US market as soon as possible. It's always about getting the details right to ensure quality. Bear with us as we finalize the timeline."

Can you provide a progress update on the 4680 Cell? Particularly progress towards performance improvements and cost savings outlined on battery day.
--> "The 4680 Cell is a significant advancement for us. We're seeing good progress on performance improvements and cost efficiencies. Remember, it's not just about the cell, but about integrating it into our vehicles and ensuring longevity and safety. We're on track with what we've presented on battery day."

Could you please provide an update on (i) capacity expansion plans for the company's factories in Berlin and Austin and (ii) the opening schedule of Gigafactory Mexico?
--> "Berlin and Austin are both moving at a good pace. We're pushing the boundaries in both locations. As for Gigafactory Mexico, we're in the early stages, but we're excited about the potential there. We'll keep everyone updated as things progress."

Why was the price dropped on FSD if it is getting better and robotaxi is expected so soon?
--> "Improving technology and scaling often allows for cost reductions. The price drop for FSD is reflective of our commitment to make autonomous driving more accessible. The goal is to get as many people as possible using it safely."

Mercedes is accepting legal liability for when its Level 3 autonomous driving system, Drive Pilot, is active. Is Tesla planning to accept legal liability for FSD, and if so, when?
--> "Safety is our top priority with FSD. We're constantly refining and improving the system. As for liability, we believe in our product, but we'll have to see how regulations evolve and make decisions accordingly."

Current sell side consensus assumes that Tesla will deliver ~2.3 million vehicles in 2024, representing 28% growth vs. 2023 guidance. Is this growth rate achievable without any mass-market launches in 2024, and when does Tesla expect to return to its 50% long-term CAGR?
--> "We're always pushing the envelope, and while I won't confirm or deny that specific number, we're confident in our growth trajectory. As for the 50% CAGR, it's a goal, but there are many variables in play. We'll keep driving innovation and pushing boundaries."

(Credit: @QnenAlex)
https://x.com/qnenalex/status/1713670968319647937?s=46&t=h4O4UMPqHcbEi-gvTZklCw

As TheNewGuy1979 noted above, these answers (while not quite in Elon's voice) are non-answers, and probably close to 100% in line with what we should expect.

These are "good questions" in isolation, but we should all know by now that nobody at Tesla is going to be providing specific predicted numbers for a new model ramp or existing factory ramp or model refresh timelines or expectations on construction of a new factory. If these questions are asked, we'll hear the same tried and true responses about production only ramping as fast as the slowest component, and exponentials being hard to predict, etc. etc. For FSD, we know v12 is on the way...and Elon might say something about being confident in XYZ metric by the end of the year or in the next 6 months.

Answers won't provide specific numbers, because we know that's impossible. We won't be hearing anything other than general answers and vague-ish predictions. And even though what we hear are predictions, some months from now we'll hear assorted toddler-like characters in the media whining about how daddy Elon "promised" and then complaining about "broken promises."

Really, though...I don't think any company would be wise to give precise predicted numbers. They'll either give these types of non-answers, or do like some of Legacy Auto does and tell us their ridiculously lofty goals...like about how somehow they'll have 35 EV models in 3 years and really be ramping up production....and then in a few months we'll hear about factory construction being paused and existing factories being idled. These types of predictions have little to no value to the audience (although they might bump the stock temporarily).

Really, I think the interesting questions that might get good answers would be about recent challenges they have overcome. Remember when they talked about the calendaring process and how the rollers were being dented on the early 4680 lines? While we all hope for lofty and precise future predictions, we just shouldn't expect it...but I'd really like to hear about what they have already achieved and what challenges their team of wizards have defeated.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Autopark and Summons are not discontinued. They are just waiting on a future release.

Maybe. But it’s been a year or more already. If they haven’t got it figured out by now I doubt they will.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Autopark and Summons are not discontinued. They are just waiting on a future release.

Elon is waiting to make sure there is a future. So it'll come sometime after the Mars colony is self-sustainable.

 

[Usain]

Great post on X on Elon’s answers to the most-voted questions on the ER on Say — I must say, spot on likely true that we’ll just get a bunch of waffling non-answers

Here are the answers Elon will give us:

How many Cybertruck deliveries do you anticipate for 2024?
--> "For the Cybertruck deliveries in 2024, we're aiming to make significant progress. It's a unique vehicle and there's been a lot of interest. However, ramping up production is always a challenge, so while we're optimistic, I can't give a precise number right now."

When do you expect model 3 Highland to be available in US?
--> "The Model 3 Highland is something we're excited about. We're working hard to get it to the US market as soon as possible. It's always about getting the details right to ensure quality. Bear with us as we finalize the timeline."

Can you provide a progress update on the 4680 Cell? Particularly progress towards performance improvements and cost savings outlined on battery day.
--> "The 4680 Cell is a significant advancement for us. We're seeing good progress on performance improvements and cost efficiencies. Remember, it's not just about the cell, but about integrating it into our vehicles and ensuring longevity and safety. We're on track with what we've presented on battery day."

Could you please provide an update on (i) capacity expansion plans for the company's factories in Berlin and Austin and (ii) the opening schedule of Gigafactory Mexico?
--> "Berlin and Austin are both moving at a good pace. We're pushing the boundaries in both locations. As for Gigafactory Mexico, we're in the early stages, but we're excited about the potential there. We'll keep everyone updated as things progress."

Why was the price dropped on FSD if it is getting better and robotaxi is expected so soon?
--> "Improving technology and scaling often allows for cost reductions. The price drop for FSD is reflective of our commitment to make autonomous driving more accessible. The goal is to get as many people as possible using it safely."

Mercedes is accepting legal liability for when its Level 3 autonomous driving system, Drive Pilot, is active. Is Tesla planning to accept legal liability for FSD, and if so, when?
--> "Safety is our top priority with FSD. We're constantly refining and improving the system. As for liability, we believe in our product, but we'll have to see how regulations evolve and make decisions accordingly."

Current sell side consensus assumes that Tesla will deliver ~2.3 million vehicles in 2024, representing 28% growth vs. 2023 guidance. Is this growth rate achievable without any mass-market launches in 2024, and when does Tesla expect to return to its 50% long-term CAGR?
--> "We're always pushing the envelope, and while I won't confirm or deny that specific number, we're confident in our growth trajectory. As for the 50% CAGR, it's a goal, but there are many variables in play. We'll keep driving innovation and pushing boundaries."

(Credit: @QnenAlex)
https://x.com/qnenalex/status/1713670968319647937?s=46&t=h4O4UMPqHcbEi-gvTZklCw

This sounds like standard corporate double-speak. But it doesn't sound like Elon at all.

Elon is a lot more straightforward with his answers. Either that, or he ignores the question and goes off on some tangent that Wall Street doesn't care about. Sometimes it gets him into trouble, which is why TSLA often drops after earnings.

Anyone remember, "Nah, we're not working on the $25,000 car."?

Or, "Yeah, but Optimus is the most important product we are working on right now."

 

[GhostSkater]

Just some pack costs for multiple Tesla vehicles and why the IRA manufacturing credits is such a big deal for 4680s and specially for Cybertruck and Semi

here is plenty of space for a double stacked nearly 200 kWh pack, even more now that the 4680s V2 are 95 Wh per cell, but let's go with 180 kWh for 500 miles since that my prediction and compare to other Tesla vehicles

Model 3 (Base) - 60 kWh LFP pack, no manufacturing credits, cost likely around 80$/kWh - $4800

Model 3/Y P/LR - 78 to 82 kWh, rounded to 80 kWh, around 100$/kWh - $8000 in cells, but those are made in the USA, there is a 35$/kWh cell manufacturing credit that is split with Panasonic plus $10/kWh that is all for Tesla - overall cost $5800

Model S/X 100 kWh - Low volume of cells and they are made in Japan, lets say 110$/kWh - $11000, no credits

Cybertruck 500 miles - 180 kWh, today also 100$/kWh - full IRA credits - $9900 - 4680 will get cheaper, or already are, last number Elon gave us was 70$/kWh, with that $4500

Cybertruck 350 miles - 126 kWh - full credits - $7150@100$/kWh and $3250@70$/kWh

Semi 500 miles (once switched to 4680s) - 900 kWh - full credits - once 4680s@70$/kWh - $22500

On the last one, there was some data from Ford a while ago that a Mach-E packs costs them (cost, not sale price) over $20000, for 91 kWh, basically the Semi has a 10 times bigger pack for similar cost in cells

 

[bruce4000]

This sounds like standard corporate double-speak. But it doesn't sound like Elon at all.

Elon is a lot more straightforward with his answers. Either that, or he ignores the question and goes off on some tangent that Wall Street doesn't care about. Sometimes it gets him into trouble, which is why TSLA often drops after earnings.

Anyone remember, "Nah, we're not working on the $25,000 car."?

Or, "Yeah, but Optimus is the most important product we are working on right now."

Yeah sounds like very polished corporate speak, not what I think of as Elon.

 

[MC3OZ]

Just some pack costs for multiple Tesla vehicles and why the IRA manufacturing credits is such a big deal for 4680s and specially for Cybertruck and Semi

here is plenty of space for a double stacked nearly 200 kWh pack, even more now that the 4680s V2 are 95 Wh per cell, but let's go with 180 kWh for 500 miles since that my prediction and compare to other Tesla vehicles

Model 3 (Base) - 60 kWh LFP pack, no manufacturing credits, cost likely around 80$/kWh - $4800

Model 3/Y P/LR - 78 to 82 kWh, rounded to 80 kWh, around 100$/kWh - $8000 in cells, but those are made in the USA, there is a 35$/kWh cell manufacturing credit that is split with Panasonic plus $10/kWh that is all for Tesla - overall cost $5800

Model S/X 100 kWh - Low volume of cells and they are made in Japan, lets say 110$/kWh - $11000, no credits

Cybertruck 500 miles - 180 kWh, today also 100$/kWh - full IRA credits - $9900 - 4680 will get cheaper, or already are, last number Elon gave us was 70$/kWh, with that $4500

Cybertruck 350 miles - 126 kWh - full credits - $7150@100$/kWh and $3250@70$/kWh

Semi 500 miles (once switched to 4680s) - 900 kWh - full credits - once 4680s@70$/kWh - $22500

On the last one, there was some data from Ford a while ago that a Mach-E packs costs them (cost, not sale price) over $20000, for 91 kWh, basically the Semi has a 10 times bigger pack for similar cost in cells

A key aim for 2024 has to be make as many 4680 cells as possible then make as many vehicles as possible with those cells.

Outside of Cybertruck I am unsure about the priorities, that is because making higher margins on higher volumes of Model 3/Y is just as important as the Semi.

For the Semi what is mostly needed is more cells to make more Semis, the customer ROI on each truck makes the sale, a lower sale price isn't as important as for Model 3/Y.

If 4680s increased the load that a Semi could haul and further increased the ROI, then that is a more compelling argument for using 4680s.

Once Sparks is making 4680s using them in Semis seems logical, shipping 4680s from Fremont or Austin to Sparks might not be the best option.

 

[Jim Holder]

Forgive the dumb question, is Zach Kirkhorn definitely not going to be on the earnings calls? I thought he was staying on until December to help with the transition.

If the new guy runs the call instead then maybe the format will be a bit more appropriate/normal given he may handle Elon a bit better

 

[cliff harris]

I know everyone is excited about the CT, and I think its awesome too, but I have to admit, the climate-change-campaigner in me would much rather any battery cells go into more tesla semi's that CTs. A lot of CTs will be a fashion statement, or an everyday vehicle to commute in, where frankly a 60kwh battery in a much smaller vehicle would have been fine. They are also going to be driven for 2 hours a day on average max.
Tesla semi will be in constant use, replacing huge gas guzzling vehicles, that absolutely need big battery packs. In terms of reducing emissions, building a semi is dramatically more important than a CT.
Personally I would have preferred a small model 2 before the CT.
Also there are other mass-market EV pickups now, but not a real mass-market semi competitor.

I am really hoping Tesla can scale batteries fast enough to make simultaneous ramps of semi and CT a possibility. I am disappointed none of the earnings call questions push the semi though...

 

[hobbes]

Kind of wondering if dumbing down the sound system will be next. Save a few bucks in speakers etc.

Generally agree with your view, but Highland Model 3 has actually 17 instead of 14 speakers.
It´s beyond me how they are adding 21% speakers to a sound system I have not really heard any general criticism of while dropping 100% USS.

I think it is one of those things where a single person at the top making decisions alone is not a good idea. Everyone makes mistakes, but in a team decision it is unlikely all make the same mistake at the same time. On the other hand, without many of Elon´s decision that a team likely would not have dared to make, Tesla wouldn´t be where it is now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1697437525403455671

 

[Artful Dodger]

Model S/X 100 kWh - Low volume of cells and they are made in Japan, lets say 110$/kWh - $11000, no credits

Panasonic NCA cells made in Japan are eligible under the materials sourcing requirements of the IRA. When sold in a Model X LR (Model S is still over the price cap), that sale now qualifies for the entire $7,500 IRA credit (which becomes an instant rebate after Jan 1st, 2024). The net result is a demand increase for Model X.

Note that 'Made-in-Japan' cells are IRA-eligible because of these two announcements:

Japan Trade Agreement | U.S. Customs and Border Protection (Apr 05, 2021)

US, Japan sign trade deal on electric vehicle battery minerals | reuters.com (March 28, 2023)

 

[Artful Dodger]

If 4680s increased the load decreased the cost-per-mile that a Semi could haul and further increased the ROI, then that is a more compelling argument for using 4680s.

FTFY. Pepsico/Tesla Semi already hauls the legal max load: 82K lbs. It's the range and cost that are variables.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I know everyone is excited about the CT, and I think its awesome too, but I have to admit, the climate-change-campaigner in me would much rather any battery cells go into more tesla semi's that CTs. A lot of CTs will be a fashion statement, or an everyday vehicle to commute in, where frankly a 60kwh battery in a much smaller vehicle would have been fine. They are also going to be driven for 2 hours a day on average max.
Tesla semi will be in constant use, replacing huge gas guzzling vehicles, that absolutely need big battery packs. In terms of reducing emissions, building a semi is dramatically more important than a CT.
Personally I would have preferred a small model 2 before the CT.
Also there are other mass-market EV pickups now, but not a real mass-market semi competitor.

I am really hoping Tesla can scale batteries fast enough to make simultaneous ramps of semi and CT a possibility. I am disappointed none of the earnings call questions push the semi though...

I think Tesla can show that existing non-EVs make no sense (except niche), hurrying up the move to EVs. Probably easier in commercial situations like HGVs/Semis. OEMs hearing a clamour for EV versions and lower (minimal replacement) diesel sales might do a lot of good.

Destruction of demand for diesels as soon as possible.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Maybe. But it’s been a year or more already. If they haven’t got it figured out by now I doubt they will.

I think this will not be rereleased until V12 as it already does all the transitions required for pick up/ drop off natively.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Yeah sounds like very polished corporate speak, not what I think of as Elon.

What that writing has in common with Elon is, it's sure to not help the share price. We're coming up on tax-loss-selling season and if the SP drops below a critical threshold (probably around 220), we could get sucked into a tax-loss-selling worm hole.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think this will not be rereleased until V12 as it already does all the transitions required for pick up/ drop off natively.

Imma revise my prediction for the Robotaxi debut:

Cybertruck in Las Vegas in time for the Superbowl on Feb 2nd, 2024:​

Here is "The Sphere" at Allegiant Stadium in Vegas (yes, it's covered in LCD screens)

Imagine CT as the star. Decidedly unBoring! Show'em on the Streets, even if they have a Safety Driver!

#PREDICT

 

[jerry33]

FTFY. Pepsico/Tesla Semi already hauls the legal max load: 82K lbs. It's the range and cost that are variables.

Yes, but if the 4680s reduce battery weight, then payload can be more, increasing revenue/reducing shipping cost per unit (in PepsiCo's case).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes, but if the 4680s reduce battery weight, then payload can be more, increasing revenue/reducing shipping cost per unit (in PepsiCo's case).

Tesla won't decrease the weight of the battery pack, they'd increase range (and charging speed).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Some scuffed wheels later, I am reminded yet again, that a Tesla model Y with NO parking sensors is a real liability in narrow London streets and tiny parking spaces.

A Model Y with ultrasonic sensors (USS) doesn't warn you about scuffing wheels. USS doesn't work that way, they aren't positioned to sense curbs, and make no difference for rubbing them. Ask me now I know with my Apr '22 Made-in-Fremont Model Y equipped with USS.