Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

An informative thread regarding the car dealer business and how it is going recently. There were posts here yesterday claiming car sales are fine and companies besides Tesla are still selling typical levels. Doesn't sound like that from dealers replying to this thread.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715438650689773877

C'mon, you know full well that what the dealership actually sells to the end customer doesn't matter.

It is only how many the OEM sold to their dealers that matters.

/s

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Starting to see lots of specs leak out re Cybertruck weights etc. Curious if anyone has seen estimations on battery sizes yet. Lots of people on Facebook guesstimating towing ranges.

 

[Knightshade]

I do think that opinions on the stock will change once we have more updates from the big ICE 'competitors'.

If you think Tesla is "just a car company" then yes that makes Tesla look good compared to legacy... but leaves you still deeply unable to justify the current PE, especially with where margins are lately and being told CT won't be a positive contributor before 2025 (and next gen factory won't be producing cars before then at the earliest since construction won't start till 2024 earliest so nothing but austin pilot line will be making that guy for a while).

If you think Tesla is a lot more than a car company and a lot of the value long term is in energy and the various not-done-yet projects like FSD and Optimius then it's a lot easier to justify the stock price (or even think it's too low)- but then you also would care a lot less about what happens with the UAW strike as far as its impact on Tesla.

 

[mongo]

The GVWR difference is prolly due to both 2 vs 3 motors AND medium pack vs large pack. The diff. is 1,000 lbs. I leave it as an excercise for the reader to estimate the BATTERY CAPACITY diff due to the change in weight rating. @mongo not singled out!

We can't really since the weight difference could be anything from 1 pound to 1,999 pounds based on the GVWR ranges. And that's assuming payload is held constant.

However, Plaid S and X are 205 pounds heavier than the Long Range versions, so that's appropriate drive unit impact. Cells are ~270Wh/kg and reveal specs put range difference as 200 miles, say it uses 350 Wh/mile (more weight, lower efficiency, not back calculating pack size), that's around 570 pounds. So 800 ish altogether.

 

[GhostSkater]

Starting to see lots of specs leak out re Cybertruck weights etc. Curious if anyone has seen estimations on battery sizes yet. Lots of people on Facebook guesstimating towing ranges.

Estimations we have had a lot, from over 200 kWh to as low as 130 kWh, with the new GWVR we have today seems like a good time to take another swing at it

It's getting closer and closer to a heavier Model X than other EV trucks. X is rated at 275 Wh/mi, roughly half is aero drag and another half rolling resistance

First on aero, from my own data, Cybertruck is around 3 m² frontal area, vs 2.7 m² on the X, 10% bigger. On drag coefficient, hopefully they reach 0.3 with all the changes they made and additional aero devices added, vs 0.24 for the X, 25% bigger, so overall 35% more aero drag

For rolling resistance, assuming the longest range variation will still have 3500 lbs. payload, maximum weight will be 6500 lbs., Model X weights 5385 lbs.. Cybertruck is 20% heavier

So overall EPA consumption should be 350 Wh/mi, for 500 miles of EPA range means 175 kWh pack

I would be impressed if they managed to get it smaller while still keeping the range, it's already undercutting the competition by a lot on efficiency, Rivian and Lightning are at ~450 Wh/mi, and lets ignore Hummer EV and Silverado since they have a 250 kWh pack

Significant lower cost for Tesla for more range, even being pessimistic its at most a bit over $10k for the cells per longest range truck

 

[EldestOyster]

The guy from Alaska wants the Cybertruck with the extra air conditioning.

I call First Dibs on that TommyGunned CTrk.

 

[Mike Smith]

Elon: We're moving ahead on Giga Mexico, just not at full tilt.
Media: Giga Mexico is on pause.

Elon: We expect to be making 250K Cybertrucks per year in 18-24 months.
Media: That's five times more than we were expecting .. more disappointment from Elon.

Elon: 4680 production ramp is on schedule.
Media: We don't care about 4680 ramp anymore.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Today's TSLA low of $210.42 briefly pushed the price under the August low of $212.36 and the current 200-day simple moving average of $214.69. But TSLA has since snapped a bit above these prices and may be hinting at a successful test of support levels.

Just a penny off yesterday's $212 prediction from T/A (misse dit by Maxx Smartley)

Cheers!

 

[AudubonB]

...and could prove quite useful if I could stuff one in my Timeback Machine.

 

[H Mak]

Well that was some week. Down but not out. I feel like the next big test is the 1.8m. Hitting that = credibility

 

[dhanson865]

Tesla's revenue from the sale of automotive credits has hit an all-time high in 3Q FY23 of over $1.8bn (trailing 12 months). Here is why this is likely to continue to grow, create a nice EPS tailwind while analysts are all too quick to dismiss them:

First, let's put its importance into perspective: the revenue from Regulatory Credit Sales (RCS) exceeded the combined gross profits of Tesla's Energy Generation/Storage (EG&S) and Services/Other (SO) segments by 21% (trailing 12M $1.8 billion vs $1.5 billion) . Unlike other segments' revenue, RCS revenue is pure profit, making it the second most profitable business for Tesla in terms of absolute dollar contribution to Tesla's bottom line.

Given the EG&S and SO segment have some amount of operating expenses against their combined gross profit of $1.5bn (unlike RCS), this suggests that RCS have an even greater importance to Tesla's profitability than the mere comparison of $1.8bn vs $1.5bn would suggest above. EG&S and SO's combined gross margin is 11% (T12M 3Q23). If we assume an operating margin of 5% for the combined EG&S and SO segment, the implied EG&S and SO profit contribution amounts to c$700m, hence making RCS a 2.7x more important profit contributor than the combined EG&S and SO segments. ($1.8bn divided by $700m)

In addition, the EG&S and SO segments require some amount of capital expenditure and hence RCS's contribution in terms of cash generation will likely exceed the 2.7x ratio mentioned above. In fact, 65% of Tesla's reported free cash flow for 3Q23 came from RCS ($554m of $845m).

Many analysts on WS or here on X are all too quick to dismiss RCS as an important profit & cash contributor, largely excluding them from their analyses while other EV makers (eg GM, Ford, others) scaled back/delayed their EV ambitions while continuing their sales of gas guzzlers providing an incessant stream of RCS to Tesla for the foreseeable future.

I hope this analysis helps to reduce the blind spot around RCS. quoted from

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715329740490322316

 

[thx1139]

Well that was some week. Down but not out. I feel like the next big test is the 1.8m. Hitting that = credibility

Feel a number of credibility items for Tesla to achieve.
Successful CyberTruck launch that isnt a duplication of Sem launch. Start delivering November 30th and continue delivering in ever increasing number aka a ramp.
Hit 1.8M
Transition to Model 3 Highland worldwide quickly and in volumes back at existing Model 3 is at.

 

[bkp_duke]

An informative thread regarding the car dealer business and how it is going recently. There were posts here yesterday claiming car sales are fine and companies besides Tesla are still selling typical levels. Doesn't sound like that from dealers replying to this thread.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715438650689773877

So, basically, Elon knows the "temperature" of the auto market better than most in this thread fretting over things.

Everything in that twitter thread, from various brands, is saying "super slow sales right now".

 

[Artful Dodger]

However, Plaid S and X are 205 pounds heavier than the Long Range versions, so that's appropriate drive unit impact. Cells are ~270Wh/kg and reveal specs put range difference as 200 miles, say it uses 350 Wh/mile (more weight, lower efficiency, not back calculating pack size), that's around 570 pounds. So 800 ish altogether.

Hmm, Imma say +850 lbs, +70KWh for the Tri-motor CT. So I will pack-calculate to 140KWh for Dual-mtr and 210KWh for Tri-mtr.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon: We're moving ahead on Giga Mexico, just not at full tilt.
Media: Giga Mexico is on pause.

Elon: We expect to be making 250K Cybertrucks per year in 18-24 months.
Media: That's five times more than we were expecting .. more disappointment from Elon.

Elon: 4680 production ramp is on schedule.
Media: We don't care about 4680 ramp anymore.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit".

Thank-you!

 

[H Mak]

Feel a number of credibility items for Tesla to achieve.
Successful CyberTruck launch that isnt a duplication of Sem launch. Start delivering November 30th and continue delivering in ever increasing number aka a ramp.
Hit 1.8M
Transition to Model 3 Highland worldwide quickly and in volumes back at existing Model 3 is at.

On that last point, people are reporting in the UK and Ireland thread of this forum that orders they've placed for the Highland, have estimated delivery dates in December

 

[EQC_]

Estimations we have had a lot, from over 200 kWh to as low as 130 kWh, with the new GWVR we have today seems like a good time to take another swing at it

It's getting closer and closer to a heavier Model X than other EV trucks. X is rated at 275 Wh/mi, roughly half is aero drag and another half rolling resistance

First on aero, from my own data, Cybertruck is around 3 m² frontal area, vs 2.7 m² on the X, 10% bigger. On drag coefficient, hopefully they reach 0.3 with all the changes they made and additional aero devices added, vs 0.24 for the X, 25% bigger, so overall 35% more aero drag

For rolling resistance, assuming the longest range variation will still have 3500 lbs. payload, maximum weight will be 6500 lbs., Model X weights 5385 lbs.. Cybertruck is 20% heavier

So overall EPA consumption should be 350 Wh/mi, for 500 miles of EPA range means 175 kWh pack

I would be impressed if they managed to get it smaller while still keeping the range, it's already undercutting the competition by a lot on efficiency, Rivian and Lightning are at ~450 Wh/mi, and lets ignore Hummer EV and Silverado since they have a 250 kWh pack

Significant lower cost for Tesla for more range, even being pessimistic its at most a bit over $10k for the cells per longest range truck

Weird twist to having an efficient design: An efficient EV will take a bigger apparent range hit when towing.

Momentarily, I'll ignore differences in how the aero of the lead vehicle affects the airflow around the trailer. With that in mind, then we can say pulling the trailer itself is always going to cost about the same in Wh/mile. So, a tow vehicle that uses fewer Wh/mile will take a bigger percentage hit to its range when towing.

Example:

• Big inefficient EV that gets 500 Wh/mile, and uses a 200 kWh pack to go 400 miles. Add on a trailer that requires an extra 350 Wh/mile, and the total cost to drive is 850 Wh/mile. Now, that 200 kWh pack is good for 235 miles, or 59% of the range without the trailer.
• Potential Cybertruck at 350 Wh/mile, would need a 140 kWh pack to do the same 400 miles. With the extra 350 Wh/mile trailer, the total cost to drive is 700 Wh/mile. Now, that 140 KWh battery is only good for 200 miles, or 50% of the no-trailer range.
• Just for fun: a theoretical Aptera at ~100 Wh/mile would need a 40 kWh pack to do the same 400 miles. With the extra 350 Wh/mile trailer, the total cost to drive is 450 Wh/mile. Now, that 40 kWh battery is only good for 89 miles, or 22% of the no-trailer range.

It potentially gets worse too:
If the terrible aerodynamic shape of the big inefficient truck effectively blocks some of the aero drag from reaching the trailer, then Wh/mile of the trailer might actually be lowered at speed. Likewise, if the Cybertruck's aero profile tapers down to a small wake behind the Cybertruck, then the trailer would not see any reduced drag. So the aero details that make a lead vehicle more or less efficient could further exaggerate the differences above...making the big inefficient truck look a bit better, and the Cybertruck look a bit worse.

An uninformed and/or devious journalist could easily present a biased towing range test that only measures the range loss of a bunch of EV's when a trailer is added. The more efficient EV would look "worse" because it loses more range....and the audience would only see this "problem" as long as the writer hid all of the actual Wh/mile numbers and didn't bother to explain the physics behind the results.

 

[Drumheller]

Hmm, Imma say +850 lbs, +70KWh for the Tri-motor CT. So I will pack-calculate to 140KWh for Dual-mtr and 210KWh for Tri-mtr.

Sweet! Now let's cram a pack that size, or close, into a new roadster and weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!

 

[EQC_]

Starting to see lots of specs leak out re Cybertruck weights etc. Curious if anyone has seen estimations on battery sizes yet. Lots of people on Facebook guesstimating towing ranges.

I haven't seen those posts (I don't facebook ), but hopefully the authors have specific trailers in mind if they think they are doing useful guesstimating. I always see people demanding to know the towing range of EV trucks, but not realizing that the trailer itself is going to play a huge role.

The added cost of towing will always come down to:

• How heavy the trailer is (combined with the friction in the axles and the tire rolling resistance)
• The aerodynamic size and shape of the trailer
• How the aerodynamic shape of the vehicle interplays with the aerodynamic shape of the trailer to make the total drag when towing
• Conditions along the route (speed, wind, hill climbing, etc.)

I'm fairly confident I could get a super-light trailer and attach a few vertical pieces of plywood mounted with the full 4x8' shape facing the wind (acting like a parachute) and create a trailer weighing about 500 lbs that would absolutely ruin the range of the tow vehicle at 70 mph.

Heck, you could even "tow" 20 pounds actual parachute behind your car (like the way drag racers stop), and destroy your range at high speed.

Likewise, I could get a sturdy flatbed trailer, load it down with 10,000 lbs of steel plates laying flat so the whole thing is only a couple feet high, add an aerodynamic cover and grease up the axles, over-inflate the tires, and drive along at 50 mph on a flat road and end up with a range not too far off of EPA ratings.

Real world trailers aren't going to be at quite those extremes...but there's going to be a big difference in the aerodymic shape and weight profiles of whatever trailer a given user plans to tow, and therefore big differences in the impact to range.

 

[Singuy]

So, basically, Elon knows the "temperature" of the auto market better than most in this thread fretting over things.

Everything in that twitter thread, from various brands, is saying "super slow sales right now".

Car sales are fine as people are nearing the end of the "car glut due to chip shortage" buying frenzy. No one said car sales are not fine for the past few months. Elon just guided that demand GROWTH will be harder in the future due to rates...other companies are not guiding demand growth because they haven't seen growth in demand for decades as they are the saturated market. They are just trying to not see shrinkage and maintaining demand. Tesla can maintain demand as well, but Elon is pushing for growth because this is what the mission requires.

BMW and Mercedes both are in the 2M cars/year range when it comes to demand and production. Tesla is entering this club so it's going to be a headwind to go beyond them having lower amount of skus. There's also the headwind that in this current time, the majority of people(over 50%) will still not consider going electric as their next car purchase due to various amounts of reasons. Since this is a major purchase with high monthly payment, it's not a matter of "oh let me try electric on a whim even though my livelihood depends on this car" kind of purchase.