Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

I agree FSD would spike the share price, but we don't need FSD to reach our ATH either. We can certainly get back to $415 simply from increasing auto + energy production (more cars and megapacks to sell).

Increasing auto and energy to a point where share price exceeds 415 will take way longer than FSD.

 

[juanmedina]

You clearly haven’t looked at BYD. They manufacture in many countries, including Brazil, where they make batteries, busses and cars and bought a huge factory from Ford that was updated at a cost of US$ billions just before they shut it during the pandemic.

I don't think Brazil is known for their high labor cost

 

[jkirkwood001]

Interesting perspective that counters some of the negative NA-centric industry posts about GM and Ford here.

Bloomberg: The US Could Become the Odd Market Out in the EV Success Story

Key points:

• "Electric-vehicle adoption is up in all regions, but there’s growing concern America could become a roadblock for the industry."
• "There’s also growing optimism on charging infrastructure and batteries... Utilization is finally getting high enough for operators to see favorable economics."
• "Early indications are that battery prices in 2023 will resume their decades-long decline after inching higher last year. Lithium and other battery metal prices have tanked, giving manufacturers more room for maneuver."
• Interesting observation: "...the concept of the S-curve has mostly been calibrated on household or consumer goods — things like TVs, radios, microwaves and smartphones. None of these are at the upper limit of people’s purchasing power the way cars are. The steepness of the EV curve will be shaped by how fast costs continue to come down, not by how fast people adopted VCRs or the iPhone."

The US Could Become the Odd Market Out in the EV Success Story

Electric-vehicle adoption is up in all regions, but there’s growing concern America could become a roadblock for the industry.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[EverettRuess]

For anyone wavering, a reminder of the most important rule of investing. You sell when the price is high and buy when the price is low. It's pretty straightforward.

Also where is @StarFoxisDown! ? I miss their posts

StarFoxisDown was hounded off the board by someone who can't handle views that are not his.

 

[UncaNed]

StarFoxisDown was hounded off the board by someone who can't handle views that are not his.

@StarFoxisDown! is another one of the way-too-many folks who's contributions I miss.

Around 2018, there were a few heavy hitters here who were discouraged just by to many off-topic posts, if I remember correctly. I wish I had an answer to fix all this.

Much thanks to those who continue to contribute in this and other forums.

 

[Stretch2727]

Well Toyota may finally be getting serious.

Toyota Supercharges North Carolina Battery Plant with New $8 Billion Investment - Toyota USA Newsroom

LIBERTY, N.C. (Oct. 31, 2023) – Toyota today announced a new investment of nearly $8 billion that will add approximately 3,000 jobs at Toyota Battery Manufacturing North Carolina (TBMNC). This brings total investment to approximately $13.9 billion and job creation to more than 5,000 – further...

pressroom.toyota.com

 

[2daMoon]

My BYD questions are:
Can they rollout a robotaxi network no more than years later than Tesla?
Will folk outside of China see their robotaxis as being 90% as safe as Tesla?
What percentage of their EV fleet will be eligible to join the robotaxi fleet?
Will they last 10 years plus pre robotaxi and 5 years as a robotaxi?

You left out:

How many Robotaxi software subscriptions will they buy from Tesla?

 

[CitizenKane]

For anyone wavering, a reminder of the most important rule of investing. You sell when the price is high and buy when the price is low. It's pretty straightforward.

Also where is @StarFoxisDown! ? I miss their posts

Excellent, now all I have to do is figure out when the price is high and when it's low. I mean, how hard can that be?

 

[SOULPEDL]

StarFoxisDown was hounded off the board by someone who can't handle views that are not his.

We chat offline, so he’s around, not posting here though. I guess we just like contrarian views.

 

[growler23]

It appears that we all dropped the conversational ball on what was (to me) the most interesting part of the Hertz announcement a couple days ago: they have documented maintenance costs on their Tesla fleet at higher what they expect from their ICE fleet. (If I got that wrong from memory of earlier posts, please correct).

But electric vehicle owners can face unique maintenance needs, as well. Nikhil Naikal, CEO of Kinetic, a startup that is not affiliated with Hertz or Tesla but provides repairs for electric and autonomous vehicles, told CNBC on Thursday:

“The reality of electric vehicles is that they can be 1,000 pounds heavier or more than gas vehicles, and they move faster, with higher torque. Since they’re extremely zippy and heavier, it’s just physics — the ability to overcome inertia so quickly is going to effect their suspension systems, the brakes and steering columns. It’s counter-intuitive, but even with fewer moving parts they are susceptible to requiring more maintenance. They especially require tire-swapping, because the tires wear out more quickly from that high torque and weight.”

Apologies from quoting "CNBS", but they are quoting a third party - hopefully reliably...
Hertz pulls back on EV plans citing Tesla price cuts, high repair costs

This goes against previous studies of EV (corporate) fleets, and goes against a very large assumption (and experience?) from most of us: EVs are way cheaper per mile. This is still a huge part of the reasoning EVs are better: higher upfront for now, but cheaper over 5+ years.

Is the discrepancy the weight, as hinted at above? The way people treat rentals (i.e. poorly)? Is it the oft-reported fact that repairs on our Teslas are pricier than one might reasonably expect? Is it the Gigacastings getting damaged? We cannot dismiss Hertz' findings out of hand, and as investors, might be fruitful to explore.

It just seems to me we blew past that to start complaining about the stock price daily movements again. (In that vein, I may have found a new couch, finally, and perhaps at an opportune moment for once!)

 

[FreqFlyer]

I think the competitive dynamic in the labor market is more fundamental. If you are working side-by-side with a co-worker who receives identical compensation, but isn't legally required to surrender part of their pay to a union, why would you join that union? The reality is that most workers wouldn't thus its very, very hard for a union to get a majority of workers to vote for it.

UAW's Fain has already stated Tesla is in his sights and with the White House and Media behind him spinning away I would be concerned about Fremont.

The reason Delta Flight attendants are non union is every time UA or AA negotiates an industry leading pay package, Delta matches them. UAW rates and compensation effects all non union plants. A UAW 25% pay hike and increased compensation package is not to say Fain will unionize Freemont or Austin but to think it will have no effect on pay scales and compensation going forward is foolish.

 

[uscbucsfan]

It appears that we all dropped the conversational ball on what was (to me) the most interesting part of the Hertz announcement a couple days ago: they have documented maintenance costs on their Tesla fleet at higher what they expect from their ICE fleet. (If I got that wrong from memory of earlier posts, please correct).


Apologies from quoting "CNBS", but they are quoting a third party - hopefully reliably...
Hertz pulls back on EV plans citing Tesla price cuts, high repair costs

This goes against previous studies of EV (corporate) fleets, and goes against a very large assumption (and experience?) from most of us: EVs are way cheaper per mile. This is still a huge part of the reasoning EVs are better: higher upfront for now, but cheaper over 5+ years.

Is the discrepancy the weight, as hinted at above? The way people treat rentals (i.e. poorly)? Is it the oft-reported fact that repairs on our Teslas are pricier than one might reasonably expect? Is it the Gigacastings getting damaged? We cannot dismiss Hertz' findings out of hand, and as investors, might be fruitful to explore.

It just seems to me we blew past that to start complaining about the stock price daily movements again. (In that vein, I may have found a new couch, finally, and perhaps at an opportune moment for once!)

It could be as simple as tires and fixing broken things.

Teslas/EVs go through tires quicker and Tesla is super expensive to repair. They get a lot of small accidents or negligence on rental cars.

I've owned 3 Teslas and until the 30k mark, they are cheaper on fuel but tire wear, especially the original tires, is not something I've ever experienced in any of my other cars, which offsets any oil change or maintenance schedule cost.

I don't think it's BS, but most aren't treating their personal car like a rental.

With gas savings, still cheaper per mile...easily, but rental companies don't pay for gas. So that savings is cut out.

 

[UkNorthampton]

It appears that we all dropped the conversational ball on what was (to me) the most interesting part of the Hertz announcement a couple days ago: they have documented maintenance costs on their Tesla fleet at higher what they expect from their ICE fleet. (If I got that wrong from memory of earlier posts, please correct).


Apologies from quoting "CNBS", but they are quoting a third party - hopefully reliably...
Hertz pulls back on EV plans citing Tesla price cuts, high repair costs

This goes against previous studies of EV (corporate) fleets, and goes against a very large assumption (and experience?) from most of us: EVs are way cheaper per mile. This is still a huge part of the reasoning EVs are better: higher upfront for now, but cheaper over 5+ years.

Is the discrepancy the weight, as hinted at above? The way people treat rentals (i.e. poorly)? Is it the oft-reported fact that repairs on our Teslas are pricier than one might reasonably expect? Is it the Gigacastings getting damaged? We cannot dismiss Hertz' findings out of hand, and as investors, might be fruitful to explore.

It just seems to me we blew past that to start complaining about the stock price daily movements again. (In that vein, I may have found a new couch, finally, and perhaps at an opportune moment for once!)

Nikhil is the CEO and co-founder of Kinetic Automation, a company that utilizes precision robots, machine learning, and software to establish automated service centers for EVs and AVs.

Something to sell, no evidence cited - just nonsense pseudo-tech blather - LinkedIn. Also allied with TslaQ mouthpiece to promote his business. So I wouldn't rate him 10/10 on morals.

Excellent coverage by Lora Kolodny at CNBC on higher repair costs of EVs that has triggered national fleets like Hertz to re-evaluate their EV plans. I talk about some of the fundamental reasons why EV maintenance is critical. Specifically, EVs weigh about 1,000lbs more than their ICE counterparts and have higher torque (i.e. 0 to 60 in 4 seconds). This means more frequent maintenance and higher repair costs on accidents.

Kinetic is addressing this ballooning cost of repair starting with digital systems and safety. Our technology enables us to keep these costs at bay while superseding on quality and efficiency. We are catalyzing the green transition by lowering the cost of EV repairs!

 

[ZeApelido]

Good writing, but, where is BYD, which is considered as Tesla's biggest competitor in China?

Paging @dl003, I know you like wave analysis and all, but I think I've got a better technical cue.

 

[mongo]

It appears that we all dropped the conversational ball on what was (to me) the most interesting part of the Hertz announcement a couple days ago: they have documented maintenance costs on their Tesla fleet at higher what they expect from their ICE fleet. (If I got that wrong from memory of earlier posts, please correct).

Hertz had higher repair costs than expected, not routine maintenance.

Elevated incidence of damage/collision and higher cost of repairs have impacted results.

They are still pro-EV.

EVs Pursuing first mover advantage, focus on customer experience, channel mix, and charging; working on damage and cost of repair, including with OEMs

Rideshare Growth Leading provider of EV and ICE rental vehicles to rideshare drivers; longer length of keep; expanding with Uber and Lyft as new markets open in U.S. and Europe

https://ir.hertz.com/static-files/a35d56a8-e776-40b6-8391-4e8942b7f5f3

 

[JusRelax]

It appears that we all dropped the conversational ball on what was (to me) the most interesting part of the Hertz announcement a couple days ago: they have documented maintenance costs on their Tesla fleet at higher what they expect from their ICE fleet. (If I got that wrong from memory of earlier posts, please correct).

If I recall correctly, it's not maintenance costs, but repair costs. You're correct, though, that this is interesting. I wonder if it's as simple as "Teslas are more expensive to repair" (don't know if this is true or not), or if they are experiencing a higher rate of accidents with those who rent Teslas.

 

[Usain]

It appears that we all dropped the conversational ball on what was (to me) the most interesting part of the Hertz announcement a couple days ago: they have documented maintenance costs on their Tesla fleet at higher what they expect from their ICE fleet. (If I got that wrong from memory of earlier posts, please correct).


Apologies from quoting "CNBS", but they are quoting a third party - hopefully reliably...
Hertz pulls back on EV plans citing Tesla price cuts, high repair costs

This goes against previous studies of EV (corporate) fleets, and goes against a very large assumption (and experience?) from most of us: EVs are way cheaper per mile. This is still a huge part of the reasoning EVs are better: higher upfront for now, but cheaper over 5+ years.

Is the discrepancy the weight, as hinted at above? The way people treat rentals (i.e. poorly)? Is it the oft-reported fact that repairs on our Teslas are pricier than one might reasonably expect? Is it the Gigacastings getting damaged? We cannot dismiss Hertz' findings out of hand, and as investors, might be fruitful to explore.

It just seems to me we blew past that to start complaining about the stock price daily movements again. (In that vein, I may have found a new couch, finally, and perhaps at an opportune moment for once!)

From what I remember, Hertz was saying that maintenance costs were lower than for ICE, just as expected. The problem was that collision repair costs were quite expensive and collisions were more frequent than expected.

I suspect that a lot of folks are renting a Tesla from Hertz with the intention of having some fun with the quick acceleration and speed. This would lead to a higher collision rate than they see with other models.

 

[JusRelax]

From what I remember, Hertz was saying that maintenance costs were lower than for ICE, just as expected. The problem was that collision repair costs were quite expensive and collisions were more frequent than expected.

I suspect that a lot of folks are renting a Tesla from Hertz with the intention of having some fun with the quick acceleration and speed. This would lead to a higher collision rate than they see with other models.

This was the exact thought I had regarding potentially higher frequency of repairs for Tesla models compared to other model rentals.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It could be as simple as tires and fixing broken things.

Teslas/EVs go through tires quicker and Tesla is super expensive to repair. They get a lot of small accidents or negligence on rental cars.

I've owned 3 Teslas and until the 30k mark, they are cheaper on fuel but tire wear, especially the original tires, is not something I've ever experienced in any of my other cars, which offsets any oil change or maintenance schedule cost.

I don't think it's BS, but most aren't treating their personal car like a rental.

With gas savings, still cheaper per mile...easily, but rental companies don't pay for gas. So that savings is cut out.

And in about 99% of renters, they drive it like they stole it so the tire wear is accelerated to a magnitude of 10000!

 

[uscbucsfan]

And in about 99% of renters, they drive it like they stole it so the tire wear is accelerated to a magnitude of 10000!

Agreed.

It makes sense. They should probably lock them all in chill.