Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I just realized that since FSD V12 is rolling out cautiously, they might bring back the scoring system criteria. Hope not, it was tricky for that 100 score. I’m at 94 today, not great.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Please explain this to me.

Honestly, "You're new". ie: you don't hang out in the Investor's Forum, and you haven't experienced what a unmoderated mess this thread becomes w/o some groundrules.

TL;dr the subject horse was beaten to death and tossed overboard many months ago. You missed that? Good for you! You didn't miss anything, and no pre-existing opinions were affected..

 

[Artful Dodger]

Huge missed marketing opportunity with Cybertruck event not being on Cyber Monday. Womp.

Yeah, I called for CT Delivery Day to be held on Nov 27th way back on Sep 18th:

Naw, make it good for 76 years** and hold the delivery event on Nov 27th, 2023...

View attachment 975892

Cheers to the Ultra-longs!
**pro-rated, of course.

Not for the "Cyber-Monday" connection, but for the 76th anniversary of the introduction of the 1st Ford "F-Series" pickup (which was Nov 27, 1947).

Here's my angle. CT now how the following 3 things going for it in terms of longevity/extreme durability:

1. Million-mile drive train from the Model 3 (SRPM motors shown to last > 1M mi in bench testing)
2. Stainless steel body work is not only bullet proof, but it is CANCER PROOF (ie: rustproof)
3. Depending upon the chemistry in the Cybercell v2 this may have a 1M mil battery pack too (or maybe 25-50 years service life, if all Dr. Jeff Dahn's research is brought to bear)

So to celebrate the CT launch, instead of just announcing a GREAT price for CT, why not also announce an UNHEARD-OF Extended Warranty, too? I mean, like crazy long. Like more than 20 years, or maybe like 50 years if there's some kind of pro-rating involved.

This is how we kill gas cars. If an EV has 3x the usable service life of the competing gas car/truck, then only a third of the vehicles need to be produced to replenish the fleet once a steady state has been reached. That means 30M cars/yr are needed post 2050, instead of 90M/yt. That's the HIGHEST savings of all, for the Environment, for Consumers... Winner-winner, Chicken-dinner.

So what if cars lasted 50 years? What if the only maintenance cars needed was charging, new tires, and windshield wiper fluid? And what if Tesla materials scientists get involved with Cyber-tires? 'jus sayin'...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[EQC_]

...
So what if cars lasted 50 years? What if the only maintenance cars needed was charging, new tires, and windshield wiper fluid? And what if Tesla materials scientists get involved with Cyber-tires? 'jus sayin'...

Cheers to the Longs!

Definitely a nice dream...and definitely something engineers can strive for.

One tricky part is figuring out all the parts that will need attention (deeper cleaning, maintenance, replacement, etc.) after 20+ years that almost nobody ever had to worry about before, and then either engineering it away or developing the marketplace to do the replacing at reasonable cost.

20+ years of sun and use on the steering wheel, dashboard plastics, seat materials, and even seat belt clips can lead to cracks and failures, in addition to just collecting dirt and stains. Will the seat cushioning material hold up? Even seatbelt fabrics and tensioners collect dirt and grime over time and stop retracting reliably in everyday use. Carpets will be worn and/or gross. Exterior plastics will be showing age with cracks and brittleness. Headlights and tail lights likely to be yellowed and foggy, less bright than they should be. All of that gets very expensive to address if it has to be done in small numbers, custom/one-off.

Tesla might already have an advantage here, in that they keep their cars the same for longer and produce in large numbers...so there could actually be a business case in 2035 to build replacement dashboards for the 1-million plus Model 3's sold with the same exact dashboard from 2017-2023. Definitely more plausible than for a car company that produced 100,000 of a given model per year, but with 3 trims that had different dashboard and infotainment designs, and the company "refreshed" everything completely every couple years in a incompatible way.

 

[InTheMiddle]

Interesting observation: The closing price for TSLA on Dec 31, 2020 was $235.22. Friday’s closing price for TSLA on Nov 24, 2023 was $235.45, for a gain of $0.23 (or 0.097781%) over the past almost 3 years. Yes, certainly many will correctly state that the full 3-yr return from late Nov 2020 is up more than that, as both Nov and Dec 2020 were months of significant TSLA gains due to the S&P500 inclusion on Dec 21, 2020. However, after that, the very choppy ride that TSLA has been on has netted out only a few *pennies* of gain per year for pure TSLA share HODLers. It will be interesting to see where TSLA ends 2023 in a little over a month, and see what the 3-yr rate of return looks like at that point.

 

[Artful Dodger]

One tricky part is figuring out all the parts that will need attention (deeper cleaning, maintenance, replacement, etc.) after 20+ years that almost nobody ever had to worry about before, and then either engineering it away or developing the marketplace to do the replacing at reasonable cost.

This is the "Army way" based on a 30-40 yr replacement cycle for vehicles. When I joined (42 years ago), we were driving 1963 pattern jeeps and our gun tractors (6x6 trucks) were all built in the 1950s. We got new trucks in the mid-80s which have only been replaced in the past few years. Significantly, the new gun tractors are based on civilian pattern trucks, w. appropriate mods for the Artillery (the Lt.Gen who ran the procurement program was a course mate of mine back in Officer Phase Training).

Even the Air Force operates the same way. Hercules a/c were 1st sent to squadrons in the 1960s (and are frequently upgraded). B-52s will remain in service until the airframes are at least 90 years old (2050+), recently re-engined with 8 modern small turbofans which conveniently just fit into the nacelles used by those old thirsty & unreliable turbojets). Modular modernization programs!

I'm not even going to mention how old Navy kit is. Capital ships typically serve 50+ years. So, can Tesla 3rd-Gen vehicles do that too? Sandy Munro once called out Model 3 electronics (motor controllers/inverters) as "better than Mil-Spec". That's important, because Tesla chips, bots and rovers are going to Mars where they will need to work for a century+ w. minimal maintenance.

Where better to prove that tech than with the Tesla fleet on Earth?

I see a pattern developing here...

Cheers!

 

[raffiniert]

I did my part in electrifying the family, and I took delivery of my new baby this Saturday

From left to ride behind my new Plaid:

• Nissan Leaf of my wifes uncle - old, trusted, and a daily driver for him
• Nissan e-NV200, custom built for my father in law, who at times needed a wheelchair, who deceased a few weeks ago
• my old Tesla Model S P85 with AP1, 9 years, almost 200k km, still going strong
• Cousin of my wife and new owner of the P85
• Renault Zoé of my wife (she would never want a bigger car, but will buy a small Tesla right away when available!)

Roof of the carport: 3.6kWp Solar
Roof of our house: 21kWp Solar

House is a certified "Passivhaus", which means it basically doesn't need any heating, which we built ourself.

I would call this a maybe-a-bit-sustainable luxury lifestyle. We are all sinners, but we can at least try to minimize our impact along the way, can't we?

 

[2Pearls]

Interesting observation: The closing price for TSLA on Dec 31, 2020 was $235.22. Friday’s closing price for TSLA on Nov 24, 2023 was $235.45, for a gain of $0.23 (or 0.097781%) over the past almost 3 years. Yes, certainly many will correctly state that the full 3-yr return from late Nov 2020 is up more than that, as both Nov and Dec 2020 were months of significant TSLA gains due to the S&P500 inclusion on Dec 21, 2020. However, after that, the very choppy ride that TSLA has been on has netted out only a few *pennies* of gain per year for pure TSLA share HODLers. It will be interesting to see where TSLA ends 2023 in a little over a month, and see what the 3-yr rate of return looks like at that point.

there may have been a 3-to-1 stock split that occured on August 25, 2022, that might change people only netting “pennies” Of gain.

 

[EVMeister]

well I can see I was misread, AND the candidness of what I write does not equate to one trusting what I say unless some of you want to think a certain way>
I didn't have to get out. I got out because I had enough money to live life at my level for the next...well longer than I am going to be alive. AND I BELIEVED ELON WHEN HE POSTED IT WAS GOING TO BE ROUGH FOR THE NEXT YEAR.
I do have a position, just much much less than before. And in a year (6 months) I will revisit TSLA's metrics.
BTW it is a real crappy person that argues about a point by attacking the poster. Ad Hominem. It notes that the attacker is lost and defending an undefendable belief.

My post was an attempt to rationalise your current thought processes. It wasn't an attack on you as a person, but some of the (in my view ridiculous) assertions you were making about Elon and the Cybertruck. Based on reactions here many others on the forum agreed that your assertions were/are ridiculous, but that's not surprising given this is an investors thread. You may not remember, but I was one of the few people who actually understood and supported your decision to sell that TSLA in the first place. Many others were far less forgiving, shall we say.

To get things back on track... Have you seen the Cybertruck in person? Many people have over the weekend and are going crazy for it. It might not be a truck for you and it might not be the truck you thought Elon "promised" 4 years ago... But that's how concepts and prototype vs. production goes sometimes - actually often the end product is changed even more than it is here. The Cybertruck it's a billboard on wheels for Tesla, don't doubt the power this will have for pulling people into the brand. Regardless of how you personally feel about it.

 

[Buckminster]

Good morning


ALL CyberTruck discussion
Thread created by the one and only Factchecking...

 

[Mirindi]

Just announced, Tesla is suing the Swedish state due to them being denied delivery of license plates for new vehicles:

SVT Nyheter - Elbilsjätten Tesla stämmer svenska staten för stoppade registreringsskyltar

Will be interesting to see what this leads to... the case includes a statement from Tesla in which they ask to be given the opportunity to pick up the new license plates themselves from the manufacturing facility for the duration of this case, since the license plates are still being made, they are not just being delivered to Tesla.

 

[jerry33]

This is the "Army way" based on a 30-40 yr replacement cycle for vehicles. When I joined (42 years ago), we were driving 1963 pattern jeeps and our gun tractors (6x6 trucks) were all built in the 1950s. We got new trucks in the mid-80s which have only been replaced in the past few years. Significantly, the new gun tractors are based on civilian pattern trucks, w. appropriate mods for the Artillery (the Lt.Gen who ran the procurement program was a course mate of mine back in Officer Phase Training).

Even the Air Force operates the same way. Hercules a/c were 1st sent to squadrons in the 1960s (and are frequently upgraded). B-52s will remain in service until the airframes are at least 90 years old (2050+), recently re-engined with 8 modern small turbofans which conveniently just fit into the nacelles used by those old thirsty & unreliable turbojets). Modular modernization programs!

I'm not even going to mention how old Navy kit is. Capital ships typically serve 50+ years. So, can Tesla 3rd-Gen vehicles do that too? Sandy Munro once called out Model 3 electronics (motor controllers/inverters) as "better than Mil-Spec". That's important, because Tesla chips, bots and rovers are going to Mars where they will need to work for a century+ w. minimal maintenance.

Where better to prove that tech than with the Tesla fleet on Earth?

View attachment 994061

I see a pattern developing here...

Cheers!

Yeah. I always thought Teslas would be similar to airplanes. Every so often, the electronics and interior would be refreshed.

 

[scaesare]

It seems like he is simply trying to say that work trucks/pickups are not needed by the vast majority of those who drive them, since they simply commute to work alone and get groceries, and just *want* to drive a work truck. I fall into that vast majority that don't tow and haul on a regular basis, so don't need the additional size, cost, and wastefulness of a giant, inefficient work truck for my daily commuting/grocery runs. I did need a pickup one time this year. So, I spent $20 and rented one from Home Depot to bring a large item home. It was an F250 Stoopid Dooty. What an awful vehicle to drive. Would be pretty dumb for me to drive a 13 mpg giant work truck every day for that.

Americans love driving giant work pickup trucks for commuting despite not needing such a ridiculous vehicle most of the time. It's a result, IMO, of our cheap energy prices compared to other countries that allows us to be extraordinarily wasteful. Europeans don't drive giant 12 mpg pickups back and forth to work in large part because it would be stupid with $8/gallon gas. Almost no one, close to zero, drive work trucks/pickups unless they are using them for actual work/business purposes. Even then, more practical work vans are used that have secure, covered cargo areas.

Then, we(giant pickup truck owners) complain about whichever president is in office, since it is obviously *their* fault that we are paying so much for gas to fuel our giant innefficient clown commuter pickup truck. Obviously our own decision to own such a ridiculous vehicle for everyday commuting purposes has nothing to do with it.

The Cybertruck will sell great in the US. Some will even need/use its capabilities frequently. It will sell great to many who don't.

TSLA is the only single stock I own so I am eager to see what the CT event does to TSLA . I figure if TSLA goes 5-10x from here, it's a *really* nice boost for me. If it goes to hell in a hand basket, I won't notice. Betting on the former, obviously. (Not just from CT event, but next gen, batteries, solar, etc,)

Said I'd bow out, but it's before trading hours, so just a quick response:

My point is value ≠ frequency.

If you have an occasional, but important, application (moving a fridge) for which you can rent the Home Depot beater, great. If you have an occasional, but important, application (piling the family in to tow the travel trailer for the yearly week-long trip) for which it's not practical to source an alternative, then there's value in having a truck.

Again, don't conflate frequency of use with value.

 

[mongo]

um, might want to factor in 3:1 stock split on 8/25/2022 so your $235.22 is actually $78.4066.....
OR multiply that block of shares by 3 (big block anyone?)

TSLA Split History Table​
Date​	Ratio​
08/31/2020​	5 for 1​
08/25/2022​	3 for 1​

Tesla Stock Split History

A stock split history for Tesla and split-adjusted CAGR.

www.stocksplithistory.com

That is split adjusted. From Yahoo:

 

[scaesare]

Since no cars are held together with silly putty, and all (99%) have panels that are firmly attached All cars have exoskeletons. So then an exoskeleton of your description is nothing special.

A panel firmly attached is not necessarily an exo-skeleton.

If those panels are not necessary to bear any of the load, then it really isn't. And I'd wager that in most cars they aren't engineered to be load-bearing.

 

[Mengy]

That is split adjusted. From Yahoo:

View attachment 994076

Yep. TSLA has essentially traded flat for the past three years. Sure it's been a roller coaster of ups and downs, but our share price today is almost exactly what it was three years ago.

Conversely, the company is far, FAR stronger with a much more promising future today than it was three years ago.

 

[dhanson865]

Interesting observation: The closing price for TSLA on Dec 31, 2020 was $235.22. Friday’s closing price for TSLA on Nov 24, 2023 was $235.45, for a gain of $0.23 (or 0.097781%) over the past almost 3 years. Yes, certainly many will correctly state that the full 3-yr return from late Nov 2020 is up more than that, as both Nov and Dec 2020 were months of significant TSLA gains due to the S&P500 inclusion on Dec 21, 2020. However, after that, the very choppy ride that TSLA has been on has netted out only a few *pennies* of gain per year for pure TSLA share HODLers. It will be interesting to see where TSLA ends 2023 in a little over a month, and see what the 3-yr rate of return looks like at that point.

Yep for those that need a visual aid, what we wanted to happen vs what happened:

 

[lafrisbee]

Well I'm sure you can fit six, just but seat them.


Depending on the panel, they might as well be tissue paper by comparison. The sides and rear quarter are typically more securely fashioned but it's not uncommon for the hood, fenders, and bumper skins to only be attached with a few bolts. The CT by comparison would be structural elements.

Cyber Thursday will probably be better since it should be just Tesla.

I got it, my bad. I should have been aware that a fashion designed barely swinging a mallet is how testing for an "exoskeleton" is determined. Thank you. I will never make that mistake again.

 

[geometro]

Odd timing…

https://x.com/martinviecha/status/1729010218670174602?s=46&t=yneAtdQZgNk7DVNZYMGYfg

 

[winfield100]

That is split adjusted. From Yahoo:

View attachment 994076

hmm, you are more correct, I am incorrect, i failed to check my database <sigh still in/recovering from cranberry bread, pumpkin pie sated torpor)
DCVOHL

12/7/2020	$641.76	56,309,710	$604.92	$648.79	$603.05
12/4/2020	$599.04	29,401,310	$591.01	$599.04	$585.50
12/3/2020	$593.38	42,552,000	$590.02	$598.97	$582.43
12/2/2020	$568.82	47,775,650	$556.44	$571.54	$541.21
12/1/2020	$584.76	40,382,830	$597.59	$597.85	$572.05
11/30/2020	$567.60	63,003,050	$602.21	$607.80	$554.51
11/27/2020	$585.76	37,561,080	$581.16	$598.78	$578.45
11/25/2020	$574	48,930,160	$550.06	$574	$545.37
11/24/2020	$555.38	53,648,490	$540.40	$559.99	$526.20

from NASDAQ 3:1 split adjusted

12/04/2020	$199.68	88,203,939	$197.0033	$199.68	$195.1666
12/03/2020	$197.7933	127,656,013	$196.6733	$199.6566	$194.1433
12/02/2020	$189.6066	143,326,964	$185.48	$190.5133	$180.4033
12/01/2020	$194.92	121,148,502	$199.1966	$199.2833	$190.6833
11/30/2020	$189.20	189,009,169	$200.7366	$202.60	$184.8366
11/27/2020	$195.2533	112,683,251	$193.72	$199.5933	$192.8166
11/25/2020	$191.3333	146,790,495	$183.3533	$191.3333	$181.79

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/historical