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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The DealBook Summit was Elon at his best
No, it was Elon failing at pretending to be a righteous human being (at least the first part of the interview). If Elon is even trying to use first principles reasoning to guide his behavior (which I seriously doubt), it isn't working.

Elon at his best is doing engineering, walking the production lines at Tesla, and figuring out how to make the rocket engines simpler. It's hiring amazing people who love him for his vision, and inspiring them to create things that they couldn't until he demanded it of them. It's the "no part is the best part" Elon. That's the best Elon.
 
If only that were Optimus' foot we saw below that open door...
I will say that the lights-out Factory was a goal for Intel Factories throughout this century. I was on the team a few times. The FABs got there pretty much (Cleanroom driven), but Assy/Test still struggles mainly because there are at least 25 process steps created by about 15 different equipment suppliers who also service 1,000 different processes. There was/is? even a machine called the Tray Flipper... yup Dead Bug or Live Bug was the question. The Material Handling group designed a system with Japan to move material up into the interstitials, and after years of work was eventually replaced by push carts with flip tags to ID location. These are still in use.

So lights out mean something more significant to me, but it's anyone's guess. Lights out also save power and indicate that humans are minimally required. Not saying they are there, just a foreshadow I see.
 
Sure, they'd of course put their "best foot forward" so to speak...but check out the (non)gap around the hood closure on the lead truck. Tight fit, looks just about perfectly parallel. Nice.

Also: truck number 6 back there has a door open, and somebody's (or some robot's, haha!) leg and foot visible...
Wow! That’s almost certain bot’s leg. Could mean A LOT (or just trolling)
 

Hmmm...calculations.

$7 Billion dollars annual revenue.
I believe there are roughly 55,000 supercharger stalls open globally, and roughly 25,000 stalls in the US (rounded numbers from supercharge.info).

If that revenue is taken globally,then dividing the revenue over 55,000 stalls -- is it possible that the average supercharger STALL brings in $127,000 each year? $350 daily? I know rates vary by location...but if I assume some kind of average cost of 50cents per kWh, then that would mean the average stall delivers about 700 kWh on an average day. That's about 10 big charges (70kWh each) or 20 small-ish charges (35 kWh) per day. Actually sounds reasonably plausible! And that would only really imply an average occupancy of (very roughly) about 7 hours per 24 hour day on average, if I assume an average, round-number charge rate of 100 kW.

I know some superchargers stations are empty most of the time...but I could imagine there being way more stations in crowded areas that are crowded all the time. I know there are a few that I pass that seem to always be full during daylight hours.

If only US revenue counts, then the numbers are higher -- divided over 25,000 stalls, that $7 billion comes out to $770 per day per stall, which seems high but is probably actually possible at busy stations.

And I've totally ignored possible idle fees, etc...but I have no idea how to estimate that...

Interesting...
 
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Elon walks the cybertruck production line highlighting the difficulty in certain sections and mid-sentence opens a door to a separate prototype production line for the modular lower cost tesla, quickly shuts the door and exclaims, oops sorry that's for another day. And keeps walking
One can hope....but more likely is "production is hard...ramp will be slow"

I hope we don't get anti-sell Elon today.
 
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The market is stupid enough that I'm confident it will be:
300 we go down,
301 we go up.

Notwithstanding that this isn't even the top range variant, lol.

That seems totally fair!

Tesla's reveal said the Cybertruck dual-motor would have 300+ miles of range. That + is important, so 300 would therefore be a miss, and another horrible lie by Tesla!

301 is the bare minimum to qualify as honest (since we only use integers...).

obviously /s...
 
Suitable music for this image below. Enjoy.

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Really? Did not know, have to check for future concerts. Thanks. Love Steely Dan.
I hope they pay their stage hands well... tickets $ are for the aging 401K-strong retired now. They're gonna need more wheelchair space!

Meanwhile, I just bought (back) some of this TSLA dip. It's a better use of funds. Seen both concerts separately for a whole lot less, so I passed. They make me feel old. 🤣