Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

Word is there was a legal argument that specifies Megapacks with 95% US domestic content. This video covers where that was mentioned and how that might be achieved and 2nd / 3rd order effects on Model 3 / Model Y if Tesla is moving cell allocation around.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In case anyone is interested:

NHTSA head who led Tesla Autopilot investigation to step down

Acting NHTSA Chief Ann Carlson has announced plans to step down, after she oversaw a two-year investigation into Tesla's Autopilot system.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Bet TSLA]

Not pure profit, but FSD is the main expense, and even though a lot of people ordered when it was $7k, I would argue most didn't.

Argue all you like. But I chose FSD for $7K and my reservation number is about 800,000 from the start. Just how low a take rate are you imagining that would make the 1,000 Foundation Series vehicles somehow get to people that low down on the list? That's just fantasy.

But, of course, there will be some who didn't reserve FSD and don't want it, and they'll have it forced on them at an imputed price of $7,000. That is pretty much pure additional profit for Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not unless and until there is a full refresh. If it happens it will be in about 5 years or so.

Tesla is building a new 4680 cell production facility at a rented bldg in Fremont. I suspect v3 cybercells will be made there, and that those cells are intended for the Plaid+ Models S/X/Roadster (can't see the 30 GWh/yr supply of Panasonic 2170s from Giga Nevada being turned off just yet - they're also building bty lines for Tesla Semi).

It could be 1-2 yrs for Fremont v3 though, as I don't see them doing a major model refresh (including a structural bty pack) w/o also making the leap to 48v. The steering rack for the drive by wire system requires that change, which also allows Tesla to resume building RHD full-sized cars for the ROTW.

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

Any insights for how the CT V2G changes or influences the battery warranty? Seems like most Tesla's these days are mileage or time limited, but with the ability to cycle the battery when connected to the home, mileage is no longer necessarily the best measure of allowable cycles?

 

[cliff harris]

More info from Ashok

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736187617207787922

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736187618944266449

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736187620676526153

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736187622794629204

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736190894716616921

I wish they would show the ;painted lines as a separate color from obstacles. from a UI POV, its mad to have the same color represent 'this is for guidance' and 'this will dent your car'.
Presumably it will get better over time, but right now this looks like the sort of thing programmers ship, before an artist or UI designer even gets to take a look.

 

[Fred42]

Tesla is building a new 4680 cell production facility at a rented bldg in Fremont. I suspect v3 cybercells will be made there, and that those cells are intended for the Plaid+ Models S/X/Roadster (can't see the 30 GWh/yr supply of Panasonic 2170s from Giga Nevada being turned off just yet - they're also building bty lines for Tesla Semi).

It could be 1-2 yrs for Fremont v3 though, as I don't see them doing a major model refresh (including a structural bty pack) w/o also making the leap to 48v. The steering rack for the drive by wire system requires that change, which also allows Tesla to resume building RHD full-sized cars for the ROTW.

Cheers!

This was the plan. Are they actually building it?

 

[jeewee3000]

I've driven manuals in Europe in many places - none had any assist/vision system. None.

I am in a camp that think that whomever cries over non-having the sensors is a pansy. Last thing, you no likey Tesla, fine. Go get a Skoda (VW) or the iPace. Solved.

That's an argument as ridiculous as "Anyone that wants airconditioning in their vehicles is a pansy. In my day I never had that."

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I don’t want to lose the cm accuracy of what I currently have with the USS; I hope one can select either technique as a favourite.

USS may be very precise that something is X distance from the sensor, but the directionality is not so precise. Assuming the vision system's accuracy isn't garbage, I'd rather give up a small amount of accuracy in distance to gain accuracy in location of objects. I'm not trying to zero-zero intercept another object with my car, so as long as whatever distance precision is good enough to keep me at least a few inches from things, then it's fine even if the distance error is larger than the USS.

If nothing else, hopefully this will reduce the amount of false alarm dings from the system when going through a drive through and passing the various posts and such along the drive through, that it decides we should be warned about (when clearly they're outside of the intended driving area and my current wheel position doesn't come close to steering the vehicle into, and even the mirrors will miss).

 

[jerry33]

USS may be very precise that something is X distance from the sensor, but the directionality is not so precise. Assuming the vision system's accuracy isn't garbage, I'd rather give up a small amount of accuracy in distance to gain accuracy in location of objects. I'm not trying to zero-zero intercept another object with my car, so as long as whatever distance precision is good enough to keep me at least a few inches from things, then it's fine even if the distance error is larger than the USS.

If nothing else, hopefully this will reduce the amount of false alarm dings from the system when going through a drive through and passing the various posts and such along the drive through, that it decides we should be warned about (when clearly they're outside of the intended driving area and my current wheel position doesn't come close to steering the vehicle into, and even the mirrors will miss).

I had to turn off the chimes because I park really close to things such as pillars, ATMs, and items in the garage. The chimes were not very useful.

 

[Max Plaid]

Oh we are back in 'anyone who uses parking sensors cant drive' level of discourse again I see.
That must be why every new car on earth installs them then? maybe we are all useless drivers except the chosen few on this thread?

I don't care too much about the snide personal attacks, neither the arrogance of some of the posters here who cannot countenance an argument against their own pre-conceptions and lack of experience

But I do worry that this costs a lot of potential Tesla sales, especially on the S & X, bought by folks used to these types of features. I'll wager the yoke, stalks and USS has put off a lot of buyers. Obviously Tesla realised the yoke was a big mistake and waked it back, but the others not. And yes, maybe in 6 months they'll release software updates that resolves these gripes, then we can all look back once day and laugh about it

 

[Max Plaid]

That's an argument as ridiculous as "Anyone that wants airconditioning in their vehicles is a pansy. In my day I never had that."

 

[mongo]

I wish they would show the ;painted lines as a separate color from obstacles. from a UI POV, its mad to have the same color represent 'this is for guidance' and 'this will dent your car'.
Presumably it will get better over time, but right now this looks like the sort of thing programmers ship, before an artist or UI designer even gets to take a look.

It sort of does. Markings always stay grey, objects you can hit change color based on proximity. Theoretically, you want avoid all indicated objects and this helps cover the ambiguity of short objects.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1735814771214311722

 

[unk45]

I'd say you need more accuracy. Precision is just how many decimal places you can compute, so not required.

Believe it or not I know the difference. In close quarters both are important and useful. Perhaps even think of Drago capsule docking and a much more demanding example than avoiding scratches on a Model X in tight maneuvers.

 

[unk45]

It is one thing to maneuver into a tight parking spot once in a great while. It is something entirely different driving on a very narrow road into a city with even narrower streets and impossibly narrow parking spots.

One huge Tesla issue is changing expectations. I do remember when I drove a semi-articulated truck (actually licensed as that when I was young in 1960’s) with no guide other than mirrors but high and wide visibility. The examination and previous training were extensive, with parking, backing and turning in close quarters the major topics. Sure, @Krugerrand is right, it is possible for highly trained and excellent drivers to do things mere mortals would not try. I see that fours times a week here in Rio de Janeiro when huge garbage trucks back up for a block in very tight conditions on my cobblestone 19th century street. So, sure, it’s possible.

OTOH nearly all of us are mere mortals who have modest driving skills, often impaired vision and frequently little formal training.
We Need sensors and screen displays. Personally if I did not have the aids I have on my Volvo XC40Recharge I’d often have serious trouble on my own street. My US Model S would not be usable by me, here, without really good accurate and precise displays.

Those who dismiss these issues simply ignore the needs of present day typical urban driving needs. As we all know, a majority of Tesla sales are in urban areas and a highly profitable proportion of those are in those congested cities we have been discussing, like most big cities in Asia, Europe and even quite a few on North America.

More detail needs another thread if this subject needs further elaboration. As it is this issue does act as an impediment to sales. That, in turn, affects profitability. As a shareholder I think this should be resolved quickly. A nice new visual display helps, but will it work in the rain and snow? Early reports say it will work only in reverse. Will it work in tight forward places? Frankly, it must if it is to high in tight urban streets.
As it stands Tesla needs to stop dithering and solve this problem.

 

[Usain]

It sort of does. Markings always stay grey, objects you can hit change color based on proximity. Theoretically, you want avoid all indicated objects and this helps cover the ambiguity of short objects.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1735814771214311722

Folks have been complaining about Tesla's lack of "bird's eye view" for a very long time. Other cars have this. Why won't Tesla add it too?

We waited and now we have something better. Stronger artificial intelligence eventually beats out the blunt hardware-centric approach.

There is a lesson here.

For instance, as annoyed as I am about the auto wiper situation, I can understand that AI-based rain sensing will eventually be better than a specialized hardware solution. We just need stronger AI.

Do we need more sensors for FSD to work? No. We need stronger AI.

Tesla is taking the right approach for the long haul. The answer to these questions is always "stronger AI".

 

[jkirkwood001]

Once the 48V architecture is ready for them, yes.

It's not "cheaper to build" if it's already being built. Remanufacturing S and X would be net additional cost over existing production. That's lost money.

And always you have to ask yourself: would it sell more cars? Clearly Tesla does. That's why they didn't add large casting to Highland. Nice-to-have but a poor business decision for an existing model. Franz (I think) said this explicitly on the Sandy video.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any insights for how the CT V2G changes or influences the battery warranty? Seems like most Tesla's these days are mileage or time limited, but with the ability to cycle the battery when connected to the home, mileage is no longer necessarily the best measure of allowable cycles?

In his videoo on Fri, Dec 15 Joe Tegtmeyer reported a switch in battery chemistries is imminent at Giga Texas (I posted the video yestered queued to his comment).

Tesla could have offered V2H years ago, but decided not to due to battery cycle life concerns. The fact that they are now offering a significant stationary power load from Cybertruck to the home electrical service means that those concerns are nolonger dealbreakers. Likely the 122KWh pack helps.

 

[mongo]

Early reports say it will work only in reverse. Will it work in tight forward places?

Wait, what? (See my above X link with vehicle pulled forward into a spot, or any of the many other examples on line)

 

[Artful Dodger]

This was the plan. Are they actually building it?

The Bldg is already built, its just unoccupied ATM, which makes this a long-term plan. Personally, I can't see them installing the bty cell tooling before Giga Texas is finished, which we've heard is planned to be complete by end of 2024. Then it's a question of which is higher priority, Semi or S/X/R2? I think the answer is obvious: Semi. But that will depend upon construction of the new sections of Giga Nevada being finished to the point where they can begin installing the Semi and Bty lines (most likely will need both to be ready at about the same time, maybe slightly favoring btys)

Tesla Fremont 10/26/2023 flyover | new 4680 facility | (Oct 27, 2023)