Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

It's not "cheaper to build" if it's already being built. Remanufacturing S and X would be net additional cost over existing production. That's lost money.

And always you have to ask yourself: would it sell more cars? Clearly Tesla does. That's why they didn't add large casting to Highland. Nice-to-have but a poor business decision for an existing model. Franz (I think) said this explicitly on the Sandy video.

I’m not so sure about this.

Using 48V lowers mass and wiring harnesses. It lowers assembly complexity, making the assembly line more automatable. Some parts such as a steering column/rack and pinion go away.

48V will eventually be used on all Tesla vehicles. I don’t think it will cost more.

 

[Todd Burch]

On the new park assist vs USS vs traditional “birds eye view” from other manufacturers:

1. USS is a 2D display. You get no height information, so the distance readout is less useful. Visual Park assist appears to be pretty accurate in terms of proportions. As long as sizes and distances appear to be correct, which appears to be the case so far, I think this is WAY more useful than a 2D curve and a single number. With USS, low curbs can affect the sensor readout. With this new 3D display, you can see that a nearby obstacle is just a low curb.

2. Bird’s eye on other manufacturers is again merely a 2D display. There is no height information. There is no proximity coloring. You cannot look around the car in a 3D view from different perspectives. There is a lot of distortion in the images.

I’m not understanding the view that USS or traditional birds eye is better. There are things Tesla can do to improve this implementation such as better automatic control of the 3D viewpoint, more detail, etc…and I’m confident it will improve. But in my view this appears to be far better than USS or traditional birds eye already. And no licensing fees, which as investors improves our margins. And it’s a potentially licensable feature that nobody else has, and nobody else will have for quite a long time. This draws more to the brand and means it might be licensed to other auto manufacturers. Seems like a win for owners and investors.

As a Model X owner, I think this will open up more possibilities for automatic door opening to return as well.

 

[dhanson865]

Word is that the 1000 Foundation Trim Cybertrucks are spoken for, no more slots available in that first 1,000.

 

[Knightshade]

I’m not understanding the view that USS or traditional birds eye is better.

Up until this update (and possibly still WITH this update- it's unclear right now but reports suggest this part has NOT changed) the actual distance measurements are much less accurate with vision than USS.

Plenty of videos out there showing the vision distance system displaying much more distance to the obstacle than actually exists, to where if they'd believed the listed distance they'd have hit things (or did in some cases).

So that's a pretty massive reason people think USS is better. I agree it's not detailed, but if it tells you something is 17 inches away you know there's something actually 17 inches away.

Regarding birds eye the main thing I see there is the big blind spot of the cameras low and in the front of the car- especially when getting in the car after it was parked/asleep for a while. A birds eye view with proper low-mounted fisheye cameras will accurately show you what's around the car. A Tesla with those blinds spots can't. The best it could possibly do (assuming the system saves the remembered state when you park-- have we seen that it does?) is present what was around the car potentially hours or days ago, updating the parts it CAN see but not the ones it can't, close to the vehicle.

So that's a reason people might think a "real" birds eye view is better. I agree it doesn't look as cool, but if the front/low camera shows a cat decided to lay down in front of you you know it's there versus hoping nothing new has gotten near the car since when you parked last.


Teslas approach given the existing HW on the vehicle is very cool- but it's still going to have drawbacks to USS unless/until vision reaches parity on distance accuracy (and as pointed out- years later vision hasn't reached parity with radar so it may never do so with this situation either) and it's still going to have drawbacks to real proper 360 parking cameras due to the inability to see below the hood line in front.

Certainly the robotaxi will require increased visibility? Can't have an autonomous vehicle assuming some cached data from X seconds ago is still accurate relative to small animals and possibly children? Probably been discussed ad nauseum in the past...

It has. And is being again. Same argument comes up in seeing to the sides (ie suggestions the b pillar cams are insufficient and they need side-facing ones more like in the front fender lights area-- Chuck Cook has a great video where he mounts cams in that area and does an A/B compare of how much better visibility around things like hedges and parked cars are at intersections than the default Tesla camera locations).

In any case all this probably belongs over here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[jkirkwood001]

I’m not so sure about this.

Using 48V lowers mass and wiring harnesses. It lowers assembly complexity, making the assembly line more automatable. Some parts such as a steering column/rack and pinion go away.

48V will eventually be used on all Tesla vehicles. I don’t think it will cost more.

Oh I agree with you on that point. I was commenting to you and @Webeevdrivers that Tesla has shown a disinclination to significantly re-architect existing, mature products (e.g. no single-cast stamping on Highland when we all know single stamping is better and cheaper for new builds). For example, implementing steer-by-wire on Model S would mean re-designing the front-end, the driving dynamics, who knows what else (not me) etc. Is it a good use of resources? Tesla has shown they won't update simply for the elegance of the final product.

It's one of the things we like best about Tesla and Elon, eh? Besides a focus on the mission, they eschew poor business choices. Unlike, for example, Lucid and Mercedes (arguably beautiful cars, unarguably terrible investments).

 

[Todd Burch]

Oh I agree with you on that point. I was commenting to you and @Webeevdrivers that Tesla has shown a disinclination to significantly re-architect existing, mature products (e.g. no single-cast stamping on Highland when we all know single stamping is better and cheaper for new builds). For example, implementing steer-by-wire on Model S would mean re-designing the front-end, the driving dynamics, who knows what else (not me) etc. Is it a good use of resources? Tesla has shown they won't update simply for the elegance of the final product.

It's one of the things we like best about Tesla and Elon, eh? Besides a focus on the mission, they eschew poor business choices. Unlike, for example, Lucid and Mercedes (arguably beautiful cars, unarguably terrible investments).

Agree. I don’t think it will happen until the next significant S/X redesign—so several years down the road.

 

[Artful Dodger]

For example, implementing steer-by-wire on Model S would mean re-designing the front-end, the driving dynamics, who knows what else (not me) etc.

Uh, why? A steering rack is a drop-in part if built to the correct dimensions. All else regarding vehicles dyamics is software. It's not as hard as you imagine. The switch to 48v is much more fundamental, no reason to update the S/X until that happens. But since Roadster will likely share a platform (and a GA line) with S/X, it means its likely coming sooner than people think (like, not 5+ yrs as discussed upthread).

 

[elasalle]

Must be due to Houthi rebel disruption in the Suez

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736388403858452943

 

[CitizenKane]

I've driven manuals in Europe in many places - none had any assist/vision system. None.

I am in a camp that think that whomever cries over non-having the sensors is a pansy. Last thing, you no likey Tesla, fine. Go get a Skoda (VW) or the iPace. Solved.

I am old enough to have driven cars when very few were automatic, they had no A/C, cruise control was unheard of, they only had radio, seat belts in the back seat were optional, they had at least two built in ashtrays and just a sniff from the exhaust was enough to guarantee cancer. So I am clearly much more manly than you.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Must be due to Houthi rebel disruption in the Suez

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736388403858452943

The Houthi shipping thing is crazy. I'm just wondering how long it takes before someone decides to resurrect Q-ships as a thing.

 

[elasalle]

The Houthi shipping thing is crazy. I'm just wondering how long it takes before someone decides to resurrect Q-ships as a thing.

difference is just 9 days, and some extra shipping cost. Will be planned out for Q1.
I think this is the Vasco-de-gama route to India before the Suez existed

 

[FastEddieB]

I am old enough to have driven cars when very few were automatic, they had no A/C, cruise control was unheard of, they only had radio, seat belts in the back seat were optional, they had at least two built in ashtrays and just a sniff from the exhaust was enough to guarantee cancer. So I am clearly much more manly than you.

I must be a few years older. This is closer to what I remember driving early on:

We could only dream about radios and seat belts and ashtrays!

 

[insaneoctane]

In his videoo on Fri, Dec 15 Joe Tegtmeyer reported a switch in battery chemistries is imminent at Giga Texas (I posted the video yestered queued to his comment).

Tesla could have offered V2H years ago, but decided not to due to battery cycle life concerns. The fact that they are now offering a significant stationary power load from Cybertruck to the home electrical service means that those concerns are nolonger dealbreakers. Likely the 122KWh pack helps.

I agree. If the chemistry advances have allowed 4680 cycles to approach, say, 1M miles and thus V2G cycles no longer are a liability to the battery warranty, then I'd be interested to hear that. Additionally, if that is true, I'd also like to know if the standard battery warranty is higher for the majority of owners that never utilize the V2G capability. Certainly if one never installs the extra HW to enable V2G, the battery warranty could certainly be extended beyond the current 100K to 150K offered today? It comes down to lifetime cycles regardless if they are mileage based or V2G based and I'm curious how Tesla will specify this...

 

[GOVA]

Is this how you talk to everyone? Quickest ignore ever. Enjoy your 'everyone is a pansy' camp.

Whatever, complain elsewhere and re-read my post. Skoda is also an option.

 

[Fred42]

The Bldg is already built, its just unoccupied ATM, which makes this a long-term plan. Personally, I can't see them installing the bty cell tooling before Giga Texas is finished, which we've heard is planned to be complete by end of 2024. Then it's a question of which is higher priority, Semi or S/X/R2? I think the answer is obvious: Semi. But that will depend upon construction of the new sections of Giga Nevada being finished to the point where they can begin installing the Semi and Bty lines (most likely will need both to be ready at about the same time, maybe slightly favoring btys)

Tesla Fremont 10/26/2023 flyover | new 4680 facility | (Oct 27, 2023)

I remember reading that Tesla would build a 4680 factory at Giga Nevada to supply Semi production, and also the Kato Road Fremont cell factory would be revamped to be the pilot line for the gen 3 4680's. What's the unused factory in this video?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I remember reading that Tesla would build a 4680 factory at Giga Nevada to supply Semi production, and also the Kato Road Fremont cell factory would be revamped to be the pilot line for the gen 3 4680's. What's the unused factory in this video?

So, are the gen 3 4690’s going to have higher energy density? Eg, longer range?

Is the plan to someday use these on all tesla models?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736434265905107348

So Suez will makes this worse again.

 

[jerry33]

I am old enough to have driven cars when very few were automatic, they had no A/C, cruise control was unheard of, they only had radio, seat belts in the back seat were optional, they had at least two built in ashtrays and just a sniff from the exhaust was enough to guarantee cancer. So I am clearly much more manly than you.

I had two cars with cranks that were not antique. They also had starter motors so I never actually cranked them, but the cranks were there.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I am old enough to have driven cars when very few were automatic, they had no A/C, cruise control was unheard of, they only had radio, seat belts in the back seat were optional, they had at least two built in ashtrays and just a sniff from the exhaust was enough to guarantee cancer. So I am clearly much more manly than you.

But have you ever driven a car where you had to turn the A/C off to make it up a steep hill with no power steering as well?

The good old days and now we have people complaining about range anxiety

 

[winfield100]

I am old enough to have driven cars when very few were automatic, they had no A/C, cruise control was unheard of, they only had radio, seat belts in the back seat were optional, they had at least two built in ashtrays and just a sniff from the exhaust was enough to guarantee cancer. So I am clearly much more manly than you.

If we be bragging, I have driven a 1948 Allis Chalmers narrow front 2 wheel that had to be hand cranked to start and I could "pop a wheelie" while pulling a bushhog mower multiple times, def not automatic. hand crank goes into the front, elec start added on later