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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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A YouTube video by Dumb Money Live:


Over an hour long, it delves into the potential value of Bot. (10T by 2030.)
Google Bard summary:

The video is about the prediction of the first 10 trillion dollar company by 2030. The speaker, Chris, believes that Tesla has the potential to be the first company to reach this valuation, and he lays out his reasoning based on the following points:
  • Global human talent shortage: By 2030, there will be a global human talent shortage of over 85 million people. This shortage is expected to result in $8.5 trillion in unrealized annual revenue.
  • Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot: Tesla is developing a humanoid robot called Optimus that can help alleviate the human talent shortage by taking over some of the jobs that humans are currently doing. Chris estimates that Optimus can help with 1.5 million of the 85 million job shortages.
  • Optimus's value proposition: Optimus can be used in a variety of industries, including manufacturing, elderly care, and healthcare. Chris provides the average all-in hourly rate for each of these professions and shows how Optimus can save companies money by doing these jobs.
  • Ease of deployment: Chris believes that Optimus will be relatively easy to deploy because it is a general-purpose robot that can be used in a variety of settings. He also argues that the training period for Optimus will be relatively short, starting in 2025.
  • Potential benefits of widespread Optimus adoption: Chris argues that widespread adoption of Optimus could lead to a number of benefits, including increased productivity, lower costs, and improved quality of life. He also acknowledges that there are some potential risks associated with Optimus, such as job displacement and wealth inequality.
Overall, the video is a persuasive argument for the potential of Tesla's Optimus robot to be a major driver of the company's future growth. Chris provides a number of data points and examples to support his claims, and he acknowledges the potential risks associated with his prediction.
Here are some additional points that the speaker makes:
  • The biggest challenge to Tesla's 10 trillion dollar valuation is likely to be the development of Optimus's software and AI.
  • Tesla is not the only company working on humanoid robots, but Chris believes that they are the best positioned to be the first to market with a successful product.
  • The widespread adoption of Optimus could lead to a significant shift in the global economy, with new jobs being created and old jobs being lost.
I hope this summary is helpful!
 
Thoughtful (Extremely Hopeful) Bot Speculation Randy & Brian. Does anyone else love hearing these guys spitball like I do?

Q: Can someone here confirm Bot is in fact currently being used in a Tesla factory? (I thought this was confirmed months ago by a reputable source here)

Obliged in advance
SCNR - used BARD again (I'm getting used to summarizing videos before watching, and about half of the time I don't watch them in the end as the summary is good enough for me)

This video talks about the possibility of Tesla's Optimus bot shipping 100,000 units in 2024.

The speaker, Brian White, believes that Tesla could ship 100,000 Optimus bots in 2024, and he has several reasons for his belief. First, he believes that the hardware for the bots is not the limiting factor in production. He says that the bots are much less complicated than cars, and that Tesla has already overcome many of the challenges in manufacturing them. Second, he believes that the software for the bots is already well on its way to being completed. He points out that Tesla has been working on the software for over a year, and that they have already demonstrated some impressive capabilities, such as picking up an egg and putting it in a cooker. Finally, he believes that Tesla has the financial resources and the production capacity to make 100,000 bots in a year.


Randy, the other speaker in the video, is not as convinced as Brian that Tesla can ship 100,000 Optimus bots in 2024. He acknowledges that the hardware is not the limiting factor, but he is concerned about the software. He says that he has not seen a demo of the software, and he is not sure how well it will work in a real-world setting. He is also concerned about the training data for the bots, and he wonders if Tesla has collected enough data to train them to do a variety of tasks.


Overall, the video is a discussion about the potential of Tesla's Optimus bot. Brian believes that the bot has the potential to be a major success, while Randy is more cautious. Only time will tell whether or not Tesla can ship 100,000 Optimus bots in 2024, but it is an ambitious goal that could have a significant impact on the robotics industry.


Here are some of the key points from the video:
  • Brian believes that Tesla could ship 100,000 Optimus bots in 2024.
  • He believes that the hardware and software for the bots are not the limiting factors in production.
  • Randy is more cautious about the possibility of Tesla shipping 100,000 bots in 2024.
  • He is concerned about the software and the training data for the bots.
  • Only time will tell whether or not Tesla can achieve this goal.

I hope this summary is helpful!
 
Hey - it's 8am in Germany, I noticed quite some positive reactions to Vision Autopark in Germany as it's just pushed to non-USS cars - and I must say, Tesla suprised me with this one - it's honestly great and I can see them finally having all things together to get serious auto-park working, I mean not just the "picture-perfect" one but more of the "real aka weird" ones as well.

So in case you wanna practice your german:


Now there's still the autopilot only going to 140km/h which is way too low for Autobahn but let's see how that develops over time.
 
Just FYI, hot forming is an absolute pain in the butt. Saved for very difficult items, it’s time consuming, finicky, expensive etc… There are advantages to doing it like stronger parts with light weight, but ideally nobody wants to have to hot form.

Point being, less hot forming is better for costs and efficiencies.
Worth it to have that SS inner though !
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger
There is zero chance that Tesla ships 100k bots next year. This is insane optimism, and probably done for youtube clicks.
The rate of progress means that those 100k bots will likely be seriously out of date within a year of being built. And Tesla need to do a LOT of real-world testing to find the failure modes of the bot before even deploying them internally at scale.
I would be very imrpessed if there are 1,000 bost by this time next year, and very impressed if they are doing ANYTHING as fast, and reliably, and accurately as the human whose job they replaced.

I think the bot is awesome, but this is becoming the next robotaxi: the business model that will happen imminently and make trillions. This stuff takes serious time.
 
The differences in accident rates by brand aren't that great. Generally, the typical driver had an accident every 4 years. A Tesla driver had an accident every 3+ years.

Also, I assume that these accident rates are based on cause. If they didn't take into account whether a driver was at fault, they have less credibility.
No not cause! These are sourced from applicants for LendingTree and are 100% taken from driver records used to assess their risk levels. While causality is usually not reported, that, by definition, preselected for poor risk because vanishingly few excellent risks would solicit coverage/loans for Tesla, Ram or Subaru from such a source. I include their next two ‘bad risks’ brands because neither of the others fits that category either unless their drivers have trouble getting credit and insurance from better sources..such as even captives.

The problem here with evaluating this stuff is as it is elsewhere. Very few people actually read the source fo the data used for such 'analyses' as these. LendingTree did disclose the data source, just did so in fien print. next the PR folks made the most click-attracting headlines they could and presented the data in the most provocative way they could to enhance the LendingTree PR image. It is nearly always thus.

Here is the LendingTree source, written right in their first paragraph:
"...Our latest analysis uses QuoteWizard by LendingTree insurance quote data to determine which car brands have the worst drivers. We’ll also break down which brands have the drivers most responsible for accidents, DUIs and other incidents..."

Several people have posted speculations here, but none seem to have taken the rouble to actually look at the source, right there, as I said, in the first paragraph. Regardless of their obvious manipulation they factually did not deceive because they disclosed the source. Now, to explain the source for those who haven't seen it. "QuoteWizard" is an online insurance quoting company:
As clearly disclosed in not-so-bold print, LendingTree acquired the company which now operates as a semi-independent entity. The primary customer base remains people who seek coverage for insurance from an online semi-anonymous source.

Earlier I made the assertion that this practice produces negative selection which results from the essentially anonymous application destination. It is relevant to point out that online applications for known high quality insurance companies (Chubb, Progressive, etc) in most countries are not subject to negative selection, but do usually carefully evaluate risk, especially for expensive and/or exotic vehicles. (years ago I had a Ferrari 308 insured in London more cheaply than my neighbors Golf. Why? I had twenty years no-claim with a succession of high performance vehicles and he had had multiple accidents and violations within the last three years.)

That, seemingly off-topic simply shows that excellent risks almost always have preferred rates from existing insurance sources. People who shop in anonymous online sources, such as 'QuoteWizard", tend to be unestablished elsewhere and/or rejected elsewhere.

In their disclosures the LendingTree driver sources were only applications received online, and the subsequent driving record extracts. There was exactly zero indication about actual coverage experience, simply applicants driving history.

Choosing only applicants as a purported data source is useful to LendingTree but means precisely nothing about the universe of drivers for any given brand. For ones such as Tesla and Subaru, specifically, there is substantial longitudinal data publicly available for securitized portfolio data, with collision rates accounting for the majority of collateral substitution, and less significantly, credit losses. Anyone really wanting to know more about that can look at Fuji Heavy Industries (i.e. Subaru), Tesla Credit or others. Hint: you'll find very, very low collateral substitution rates, which correlates highly with collision damage losses.

Things such as this and the Tesla 'recalls' do attract negative attention. Very, very rarely does anyone actually examine the facts, and headlines take care of the requisite prejudice.

In this thread we would be far better off were the avid posters to spend more time examining what they're about to say than just blurting out the first thing that comes to mind. Were that I could always take my own advice./
 
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Ay Ay Ay! - the 1960's argument returns.

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