Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

I like to think of the CT as the ultimate urban assault hatchback for the zombie apocalypse.

Absolutely. One of the accessories I am looking forward to will be an atmospheric condenser to provide a continuous supply of water for the occupants while they ride out the interesting times.

Biodefense air, StarLink to orbit, some solar for incidentals, a little atmospheric water, Optimus perimeter security and the end of days might just be tolerable

 

[CitizenKane]

Tesla VP responds to US Senator’s misinformed take on Autopilot recall

As per the Tesla VP, the electric vehicle maker is looking forward to working even with its most aggressive critics.

www.teslarati.com

I find it encouraging that Patel is speaking publicly for Tesla, and is addressing FUD from politicians. That bodes well for the future of TSLA communications, IMO.

Yes!! This is how a company should communicate.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Byd offering bounty payments for tips on sources of slurs - probably China only.

Tesla could do this or a pro-EV alliance.

Might not work in USA, would work in many/most countries.

UK defamation actions very common, even if neither party has much connection to the country.

In USA, just having a list of dodgy writers, lobbyists, payers and a list of their worst work might be useful. WikiFud

 

[SO16]

... snip


He what? Did you pay attention to a small mention I missed in a 2+ hour video or did you confuse Ralph Nader and Unsafe At Any Speed with Edward Neidermeyer?

I heard him say Nader as well with the unsafe at any speed.

But I looked at the transcript and don’t see Edward so maybe I misheard.

 

[mongo]

“ Also, CT checks a lot of boxes for people who would otherwise buy an SUV like a Chevy Suburban. Soccer moms, etc.”

Nailed it. That’s how I’ve been thinking CT these days. Larger suburban. For those who don’t need a 3rd row but more space. That Vault on the CT is a game changer

This
Or towing
TBH, our Explorer is darn near perfect (and paid off), but can only tow 5,000 pounds and has a trailer crossection limit of 40 square feet. So a trailer as wide as it can only be 6 feet tall (7 with 12 inches of ground clearance). Basically, the car itself is 38 ft² if viewed as a ground touching rectangle.

>10k towing is the realm of pickups (with loss of storage). Large SUVs like Yukon and Expedition are sub 10k.

 

[mongo]

... snip


He what? Did you pay attention to a small mention I missed in a 2+ hour video or did you confuse Ralph Nader and Unsafe At Any Speed with Edward Neidermeyer?

I heard him say Nader as well with the unsafe at any speed.

But I looked at the transcript and don’t see Edward so maybe I misheard.

I had seen this reference before watching the video so I was predisposed to notice that indeed they did call him out in the Autopilot accident rate section at 42:55. Transcript has "Meer"

 

[2daMoon]

Day 08: Eight Maids A-Milking | Model 2 World Car​

Part of 12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023

Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future (please note that I will express major themes as short-hand bullet points, so I can Yule just in tide ). Here's the series so far:

Day 01: A Partridge in a Pear Tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstream
Day 03: 3 French Hens | Model 3 Bets the Company
Day 04: 4 Calling Birds | Model Y Built at Four Factories
Day 05: Five Golden Rings | Semi Breaks Physiks
Day 06: Six geese a-laying | Megapack To Excel
Day 07: Seven Swans a-Swimming | Cybertourdeforce

Intro to Part 8: Eight Maids A-Milking | Model 2 World Car​

At Tesla's 2018 AGM, the 1st question from the audience was 'when would Tesla build a compact car?' Elon agreed it was a good idea, and said possibly in about 4 years. Well, a world-wide pandemic later, subsequent supply chain disruptions (chips, sealift, ports), Model Y breakout success, and CT deliveries here we are on the cusp of the "Model 2" era.

Please allow me this one conceit: I believe I was the first to adopt the moniker "Model 2" in a discussion here with @fact-checking circa 2018. He advocated calling the compact car the "Model 4" since it would be Tesla's 4th car (Model Y not had not yet been announced). I liked "Model 2" because the compact car targeted the $20K price point (the "Corolla" market), while Model 3" aspired to the $30K level (the "Camry" Market) - a price level which it has now achieved.

Elon Musk says Tesla's next-gen Model 4 will be affordable for everyone | computerworld.com (Apr 27, 2016)​

Of course, I'm well aware that Elon has said specifically that the compact car won't be called the "Model 2", which promptly set off a new round of naming speculation: Model Zei, Model Tau, Model Juan (just for the MiMx Robotaxi). For the purposes of this discussion, I'll simply continue to use this placeholder name for what will be 1st in a series of Gen 3 products: "Model 2"

1. Combining Lessons Learned ​

• Model 2 will be the culmination of everything Tesla has learned so far about designing cars and the factories that make them. I expect the following features in the Model 2:
• $1,000 drive train: featuring PM motors w/o rare earth magnets
• LFP tech for bty cathode: long-life and approaching $50/KWh when fully scaled
• steer+brake-by-wire allows for optional driver controls, easy switch btwn LHD/RHD
• paintless process: unclear how they'll do this but Tesla could save $8B in CapEx w/o paintshops
• this is based on a production tgt of 16M units for the entire Gen3 range of vehicles
• FSD hdw in all new Tesla cars; safety first, convenience next

Lesson 1: Learn from the Past, Price Matters

2. Where to Build? ​

• The Model 2 program will begin at the home of Tesla engineering, Giga Texas
• I expect a pilot line there by Q1 2025 +/- 1 qtr
• this pilot line will use learnings from the CT ramp, and emply many of the same techniques
• Tesla may need 8 more Gigafactories by 2030 just to produce Model 2 and siblings (2M ea)
  • Texas phase 2
  • Mexico phases 1 + 2
  • Shanghai phases 3 + 4
  • Berlin (EU) phase 2
  • India phase 1
  • Osaka phase 1

Lesson 2: Build a World Car; localize the Supply Chain

3. The Third Wave​

• What will the world look like with Gen 3? Well, gas cars sales will shrivel up and die for the most part when a better car is available at a lower purchase price, and has half the operating cost
• Many Nations are in the process of adopting strict deadlines for new cars sales to be all electric, many chosing 2035 (which is just over 10 model years away)
• Other automakers will either adapt or die, we see already the tremendous contraction in production of their non-competitive models. It will be a race for survival, not for 2nd place

Lesson 3: Survival of the Fittest applies to the auto industry

Conclusion:​

Model 2 will be the lead ship in what will become a global fleet of Tesla mass market vehicles. Gen3 will span all major use cases: RoboTaxi, Workman Van, Camper, Mini-bus, perhaps even a small truck (Truckla?) The overarching theme of Gen 3 will be commonality of parts, esp. drivetrain, bty, and electronics. A consistent UI via Tesla software, Apps, and Infotainment will add significant recurring revenue while keeping COGS low on a per unit basis. Then, there's the dawn of AGI...

Next up: Tesla's Supercomputer Project - AI neural nets go mainstream

Tomorrow's Topic:

Day 09: Nine Ladies Dancing | Dojo as a Service​

I nominate this series of the Days of Tesla-mas for the Posts of Particular Merit thread, if not for a sticky thread of their own for easy reference.

 

[unk45]

I’m landing in Campinas, Brazil in a few days. Then driving passed Sao Paulo down to Santos for ten days. Now I’ll have something to do on the drive ( count Teslas)

I suggest you might alter tactics. Campinas, SP does have one of the highest EV concentrations in Brazil, driven mostly by the technology concentrations there (anyway that’s my opinion). BYD and JAC have the quantity, but Volvo and BMW are there, highly visible especially around shopping center chargers. If you count all the EV’s that will do better than trying fir the rare and elusive gray market Tesla examples, they’re around Campinas but rarely in ‘the wild’. Just check PlugShare fir locations, Campinas has a pretty large charging infrastructure, by Brazilian standards. BMW has quite a few BMW branded charging stations.

When you’re there the road between SP and Santos may have a fair number of those XC-40 Recharge and various BMW. In Campinas itself there is a population of BMW i3 so you may see some of those too, oddly those, the REX (range extender) version sold quite a few in Brazil, seen still in parts of São Paulo and Campinas.

Just in case you don’t know, BYD manufactures electric busses in Campinas:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiK_ceau6CDAxXpq5UCHd8EAWMQFnoECB8QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.busworldlatinamerica.org%2Fen%2Fnews%2Fbyd-will-deliver-100-electric-chassis-sao-paulo-early-2023&usg=AOvVaw1zU04GRF_-EPet6UjDo0E8&opi=89978449

and Campinas is adopting EV busses with fast action.
So, if you’ve time seeing the developing infrastructure there may well be worthwhile.
OK, full disclosure, I’m a Campinas fan.
second disclosure BYD stationary storage, Brazilian made, will probably be in my new house.

Last point: when visiting places in São Paulo State, especially Campinas, it becomes obvious how much Chinese technology investment in renewables, electrical grid (State Grid), battery storage and EV’s is moving faster and more effectively than are EU, US or others. Even in taxi fleets and municipal fleets there are BYD busses, JAc cars and trucks and others. A good look at Campinas shows to favorable comparison the benefits of those busses.

I hope this helps a little. We all might benefit from seeing just how amazing the Tesla story has been and how sizable markets can be when including electrical infrastructure. Cities with Campinas-style ambitions are not usually seen much in the northern-hemisphere-centric world.

I hope you have an excellent time and informative trip!

 

[Creekstalker]

What is yall's take on the cancellation of stock compensation for most salaried employees?

 

[strago13]

What is yall's take on the cancellation of stock compensation for most salaried employees?

I work for big tech. This likely isn't a cancellation, but a 1 year pause. Most big tech companies either didn't do bonuses or salary increases this past year. The reality is that for most Tesla employees this would be a ~5-20k hit a year since the stock vests over 4 years.

 

[UkNorthampton]

What is yall's take on the cancellation of stock compensation for most salaried employees?

FUD.

Some bonuses reduced for some. No effect on normal stock compensation as far as the reports I've seen.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

What is yall's take on the cancellation of stock compensation for most salaried employees?

It hasn't been canceled.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

I nominate this series of the Days of Tesla-mas for the Posts of Particular Merit thread, if not for a sticky thread of their own for easy reference.

I agree but technically ( & I just learned this recently!!?) the 12 days of Christmas starts after Xmas. So Tesla will need to step it up after lodger’s done

 

[growler23]

So, I know this was already mentioned, but 'tis the time of year to take stock, think back, and evaluate. And gloat. Oh, so definitely gloat. A little of that is good for the soul these (northern hemisphere) dark days.

The Volkswagen Auto Group signed on to NACS and the Supercharger network.

Simple to write, easily slipped past in the consciousness, but recall for a moment the total dominance that this has given Tesla in North America. Volkswagen were the last real holdout, waiting until the calendar-year equivalent of a Friday news dump (something companies do to release bad news while no one is paying attention) to admit that they had no way forward, even having already built their own d*mn network. Have a Yule feast with the gloating, Tesla fans. This is capitulation at its finest and most filling.
Eventually every one of VAG's customers will be buying electricity from Tesla, looking around and seeing Teslas everywhere when they are charging on road trips.
Even if VW survives (and that is not a given, due to their recent announcement of future plant delays and cancellations) every car they sell will be a lifetime profit stream for Tesla, should they ever catch the Bbug to go a-road-trippin'.

Rock on, Tesla, rock on. How now, Gojo?

Happy Solstice, Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas, and all other applicable forms of Happiness to ye merry feisty investors!

--Growler out

 

[Zero CO2]

“ Also, CT checks a lot of boxes for people who would otherwise buy an SUV like a Chevy Suburban. Soccer moms, etc.”

Nailed it. That’s how I’ve been thinking CT these days. Larger suburban. For those who don’t need a 3rd row but more space. That Vault on the CT is a game changer

yup count me as one of those "not a pickup truck guy" replacing my aging 8 cylinder 4 Runner used for towing with the CT ... cant wait

really glad i did not go through with a Powerwall for my home last year ... now i get the Powerwall included in CT

 

[jerry33]

I agree but technically ( & I just learned this recently!!?) the 12 days of Christmas starts after Xmas. So Tesla will need to step it up after lodger’s done

This is just another instance of under-promising early-delivering.

 

[scaesare]

Just read the article. Unfortunately it seems to lean more “true” than “FUD”.

Clear documented evidence that tesla indeed knew they were shipping cars with sub-optimal suspension components with a high failure rate leading to accidents, and internal communications confirming that they had finally fixed the issue with a redesigned part in 2022. They were fixing the part for free in China, but in the US service staff told to blame the drivers behavior for the part failing. NHTSA also confirms they are investigating similar issue with power steering.

Wouldn't surprise me in the least if this leads to an actual physical recall of all pre-2022 cars. (One wonders how service centers will be able to deal with that.)

Also large class action lawsuit seems inevitable.

Would be happy to hear from others as to why this wont happen (but please no “because Reuters is dumb” responses please.)

Cue Keef....

 

[Iain]

I suggest you might alter tactics. Campinas, SP does have one of the highest EV concentrations in Brazil, driven mostly by the technology concentrations there (anyway that’s my opinion). BYD and JAC have the quantity, but Volvo and BMW are there, highly visible especially around shopping center chargers. If you count all the EV’s that will do better than trying fir the rare and elusive gray market Tesla examples, they’re around Campinas but rarely in ‘the wild’. Just check PlugShare fir locations, Campinas has a pretty large charging infrastructure, by Brazilian standards. BMW has quite a few BMW branded charging stations.

When you’re there the road between SP and Santos may have a fair number of those XC-40 Recharge and various BMW. In Campinas itself there is a population of BMW i3 so you may see some of those too, oddly those, the REX (range extender) version sold quite a few in Brazil, seen still in parts of São Paulo and Campinas.

Just in case you don’t know, BYD manufactures electric busses in Campinas:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiK_ceau6CDAxXpq5UCHd8EAWMQFnoECB8QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.busworldlatinamerica.org%2Fen%2Fnews%2Fbyd-will-deliver-100-electric-chassis-sao-paulo-early-2023&usg=AOvVaw1zU04GRF_-EPet6UjDo0E8&opi=89978449

and Campinas is adopting EV busses with fast action.
So, if you’ve time seeing the developing infrastructure there may well be worthwhile.
OK, full disclosure, I’m a Campinas fan.
second disclosure BYD stationary storage, Brazilian made, will probably be in my new house.

Last point: when visiting places in São Paulo State, especially Campinas, it becomes obvious how much Chinese technology investment in renewables, electrical grid (State Grid), battery storage and EV’s is moving faster and more effectively than are EU, US or others. Even in taxi fleets and municipal fleets there are BYD busses, JAc cars and trucks and others. A good look at Campinas shows to favorable comparison the benefits of those busses.

I hope this helps a little. We all might benefit from seeing just how amazing the Tesla story has been and how sizable markets can be when including electrical infrastructure. Cities with Campinas-style ambitions are not usually seen much in the northern-hemisphere-centric world.

I hope you have an excellent time and informative trip!

Thank you for all the great information. It will be my first time in the area so I’ll definitely try and see as much as possible.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I agree but technically ( & I just learned this recently!!?) the 12 days of Christmas starts after Xmas. So Tesla will need to step it up after lodger’s done

Incorrect! You may be thinking of the Catholic period of Christmastide (a misunderstanding propagated on WikiPee) which begins on Christmas Eve and typically lasts until Jan 6th (Julian Calendar Christmas Eve). No, the Twelve Days of Christmas harkens back to a much more ancient Celtic tradition, and also explains why we celebrate the season before Christmas day rather than afterward.

Going back to pagean times in neolithic Britain (circa 5,500 BCE), the keepers of the giga sundial known to us as Stonehenge were aware that for a 12 day period, the time of sunset remained the same - hence solstice, or 'sun-stand-still'. This period typically starts around Dec 9th or 10th (on the Gregorian Calendar) and ends a day or two before the solstice. Here are Sun times at Salisbury Plain for the month of Dec 2023:

Sunrise and sunset times in Salisbury Plain

Calculations of sunrise and sunset in Salisbury Plain – England – United Kingdom for April 2024. Generic astronomy calculator to calculate times for sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset for many cities, with daylight saving time and time zones taken in account.

www.timeanddate.com

This was a great time of gathering and feasting on Salisbury Plain, when the shaman's had their time with the common folk (kinda like Wall-E today). So this grand old tradition is not something that Brits were willing to give up for a relatively late addition to their calendar: Christmas. (the actual birth day is another story, but very OT)

In industrial times, many people are disconnected from the daily rhythm of sunrise/sunset which shaped the lives of our ancestors, and even more unaware of the underlying reasons that shape their daily lives [insert gratuitous MM dig here].

Cheers!

 

[unk45]

...

The Volkswagen Auto Group signed on to NACS and the Supercharger network.
...

A clarification. There is no such thing as "Volkswagen Auto Group"
It is Volkswagen AG today in English:
Back in the 1960's it was "Volkswagenwerk Aktiengesellschaft (usually abbreviated to Volkswagenwerk AG)." from Wikipedia.
Now it is Volkswagen AG. The Aktiengeselleschaft simply translates to English as "shares company" and means roughly the same thing as 'Incorporated (INC)' in English. The public positioning is as Volkswagen Group now because there are so many subsidiaries and distinct brands.

From the Tesla shareholders perspective it is important to deeply understand entities such as VAG, Toyota and Stellantis, not in the narrow competitive vision of cars and truck competition but rather to understand that these three giants have each one unique political and geographic spread with economic impact on major economies centered more on their employment and distribution core influences than on their competitiveness in any given market.

When we consider Tesla we must clearly understand that the core of Tesla competitiveness is in technologies and designs dependent on electrical energy . We spend nearly all our time discuss cars because that is the core of the relationship for most of us. We're missing the major issues in doing so.

The Tesla competition is more from Siemens, BYD, National Grid and the myriad suppliers of peaker power plants and grid services than it is of those old giant car companies.

https://www.cleanegroup.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Peaker-Problem.pdf

This is now growing in the way we all thought it would back when JB Straubel began discussing it back in 2011/2012 or so. Even or twelve years is an eternity in Tesla time but we've arrived. Still we obsess over the auto side as if that is the core of the future. It is not. As important and as exciting as those vehicles are, they simply FSD/autonomy or not, even Optimus, really are not the biggest market.

Peaker Power Plant replacements with storage and grid services outweigh the entire global automotive market. When we consider the potential of Virtual Power Plants and distributed energy generation facilitated by autobiddexr-style grid services and large scale storage we have the stuff of global enormity that dwarfs automotive.

Elon knows that, most of us do, but cars are sexy to most of us so we think about them.
Now we need to realize that dedicated Tesla Energy threads are excellent, especially for technically oriented subjects. Factually Tesla's future is now dominated by Tesla Energy so we need to realize that all our forecasts that are predicated on cars and trucks really miss the reality of the world today.