The comment I want to make is that viewing TSLA from August 2015 perspective there were countless reasons to be deeply skeptical about Tesla success. Even that positive position fo Adam Jonas at the time was based, as usually for him, on speculative future rather than proven success. factually, almost none fo the analysts actually ever have understood the Tesla strengths in manufacturing, including logistics, coupled with direct distribution. Those durable advantages were beginning to be apparent then, but not so obvious as they've been since 2020 or so. Even Superchargers were not yet proliferating and the incompetent NA CCS version was barely reaching conformation.
Op-Ed though it was, that pretty much reflected 2015 views. All those negatives seemed formidable.
Even though I personally made bets on TSLA back then I regarded that as a step beyond Angel investing, but not anything like low risk. All of us should recall that only in 2019 did the Model 3 reach enough scale to be combined with Superchargers to be a clear success.
Personally I make this post simply because the FUD and entrenched Luddite-style opposition was not even beginning until TSLA success became obvious. Even though TSLA had profit posted for the first quarter of 21013:
Tesla hits first profitable quarter ever
The electric car company's total revenue for the first quarter rose 83 percent over last quarter -- giving it adjusted earnings of 12 cents per share on revenue of $562 million.
www.cnet.com
statistic_id272130_teslas-net-income-2014-2022.pdf
When viewed later than 2020, in my view anyway, the strengths of Tesla had become obvious and the lack of sound competitive response was also obvious, including Superchargers, logistics and business model.
Then the competitors and other Luddites realized they had little chance to beat Tesla fairly so began serious opposition. It really was at that time that, again in my opinion, market makers and others saw enough volume and FUD that they could make large fortunes with market manipulation, facilitated in large part by the Madoff rule and other quite legal devices.
In our own threads such as these two:
Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
...among others we can see how particularly disciplined retain traders can profit form all this, but...doing so successfully requires very serious dedication and extensive analysis. Those are not a safe place for ordinary mortals. remember that even Nobel Prize winners have lost everything when they have some hubris interfering.
Otherwise when we seriously look at the 2024 outlook it seems almost a certainty that Tesla Energy, specifically PowerPacks and new residential solar+storage+grid services projects will continue their upward and very profitable trajectory. The services (e.g. Superchargers, Premium Connectivity, storage services including AutoBidder and installed storage services) will certainly be material in aggregate even if they are not aggregated for financial reporting. The ramp of Cybertruck will be contributing but nobody much is realizing just how consequential Model 3 Highland already is and what, even more Model Y Juniper will be.
All those things do not necessarily suggest that auto sales will be above expectations nor that necessarily earning will rise rapidly. What they do demonstrate with no doubt is that 2025 will be huge.
Finally, Optimus, Dojo, FSD and the Texas/Mexico and other production of the new smaller vehicles will probably become apparent in 2024 but deliver during 2025.
The world may not see 2024 as a TSLA 'home run'. It will be more like the Chinese approach to market development. In short, build the infrastructure and then let the world see.
