Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ipcress]

I'm not a BYD shill, but I have to admit they seem to be doing well. They make their own batteries AND sell some to Tesla. Tesla talks a lot about battery manufacture, but are still buying a lot in from CATL, LG and Panasonic, and of course BYD. I suspect the Chinese govt wants BYD to be its version of Tesla.
The investor in me is hoping that when all of the issues involving speeding up 4680 production are finally solved, Tesla has the room at Texas to build out a massive factory for in house production, and of course the lithium refinery is in the future too...

However, if BYD continues to do well, and makes a decent inroad into Europe, to spread its risk, then at some point I may consider diversifying a bit more and grabbing some BYD stock. I already have some badly performing XPeng and Nio...

Of course FSD12 could absolutely reverse all this. Not in terms of unit sales, but profit margins. Much better FSD could hugely ramp the FSD take rate and shoot Teslas margins up dramatically.

I agree. I finally bit the bullet and sold my long-held Nio and Xpeng for year end losses needed to offset gains--a failed experiment. Too soon? Watch them zoom up now! I've been into BYD in a tentative way for a year or so, nowhere early enough, but it seems clear to me that they are the Chinese EV company with the most promise. As for FSD--Years to go, in my opinion. Great progress, yes, and it's been fun to watch, but not nearly safe enough for general use. The march of nines is a long way off.

Not investment advice- YMMV.

Happy new year everyone!

 

[traxila]

This is a good number and Tesla seems to be firing on all cylinders more than ever. Which is saying a lot.

Shocking to realize that a delivery number of 10K less - 475K delivered, despite changing NOTHING regarding the company or future prospects would have resulted in an absolute massacre of the TSLA SP today, probably down close to 10% and an avalanche of FUD regarding crashing BEV sales. Eh, we will probably get those anyway….

Happy New Year and 2024 will be rocking I believe.

 

[unk45]

I don’t know how to Account for such a spot-on prediction, but:

Well Done, Sir!

He’s of solid stock, deal founder, so such perspicacity is only to be expected!
Perhaps I’m just very happy with 2nd January!
…so a very nice beginning it is,

 

[geometro]

Well, that didnt last long

 

[SOULPEDL]

Well, that didnt last long

It won't... lol.

 

[The Accountant]

"Sales subject to Lease Accounting" seems down substantially, too. Implications for financial results?

Cheers!

Lower lease sales will help with Gross Profit Dollars.
Gross profit % is higher on Leases but Gross Profit $ is lower (in year 1).
So even though leases are 40% Gross Profit , you only recognize 25% of the dollars in year one (4 year lease).
This will help Q4 eps.

 

[Unpilot]

Rivian Crushed Production Estimates. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.

Shares of electric-vehicle maker Rivian are lower after the company announced strong fourth-quarter production data.

www.marketwatch.com

My Gawd the wording in this article....so different from if this was Tesla.

 

[Mike Smith]

In their top article CNBC doesn't call this a beat in any way and instead claims that Tesla reduced guidance from 2M to 1.8M.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Somebody is going to get fired at Reuters over that.

I think they already did, but the new Editor maybe missed New Hire Orientation at MSM Training HQ.

Minutes ago: "Tesla beats fourth-quarter delivery estimates, surpasses 2023 target"
Revised HL: "Tesla deliveries beat estimates as year-end sales push pays off."

(I haven't compared the articles to know how it changed.)

 

[cliff harris]

I think the reason BYD is doing well, and the reason why there is a chance than NIO and Xpeng also start to do well is one of attitude.
Chinese EV makers seem to look at Tesla, work out what they are doing, and do the same, in order to provide a decent competing product.
US and European makers seem to rely on bribing journalists, loud PR, lobbying of politicians, and flat out lying.
That works in the short term, but not the long term. In the long term, the companies making the best products win.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A positive headline???
"Tesla beats fourth-quarter delivery estimates, surpasses 2023 target"
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...quarter-deliveries-beat-estimates-2024-01-02/

Naw, roto-REUTERS already changed the headline:

"Tesla deliveries beat estimates as year-end sales push pays off"​

They need to spin it as if the Model 3 losing IRA caused a huge end-of-year sales push.

Jolly jokers.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Naw, roto-REUTERS already changed the headline:

"Tesla deliveries beat estimates as year-end sales push pays off"​

They need to spin it as if the Model 3 losing IRA caused a huge end-of-year sales push.

Jolly jokers.

@Artful Dodger - Are you blocking me still? I won't bite, but repeating my posts (again) is pretty telling. Could be wrong, just sayin'.

 

[Zero CO2]

Surpassing Tesla, China’s BYD Will Take On the World in 2024

China’s electric-vehicle maker BYD will be on top of the world this year, with overseas markets its main battleground. In the fourth quarter of 2023, it surpassed Tesla to become the bestselling pure EV maker in the world, having already overtaken Volkswagen last year as the most popular...

finance.yahoo.com

I should be happy BYD and Tesla driving the world towards sustainable transport, I am overjoyed for the future of the planet

however, down one level we have MSM in US that is continually to be rooting for BYD over Tesla ...the same media that portrays China as the boogeyman ... in other areas of concern...

i know MSM goal is to manipulate short term stock price movements and this is the primary objective ... but it is still infuriating that they don't root for the home team...is BYD advertising in the US ?

its just sucks ...plain and simple

 

[skybluecgreen]

I think the reason BYD is doing well, and the reason why there is a chance than NIO and Xpeng also start to do well is one of attitude.
Chinese EV makers seem to look at Tesla, work out what they are doing, and do the same, in order to provide a decent competing product.
US and European makers seem to rely on bribing journalists, loud PR, lobbying of politicians, and flat out lying.
That works in the short term, but not the long term. In the long term, the companies making the best products win.

BYD has been doing this just as long as Tesla.

 

[Mike Smith]

I think the reason BYD is doing well, and the reason why there is a chance than NIO and Xpeng also start to do well is one of attitude.
Chinese EV makers seem to look at Tesla, work out what they are doing, and do the same, in order to provide a decent competing product.
US and European makers seem to rely on bribing journalists, loud PR, lobbying of politicians, and flat out lying.
That works in the short term, but not the long term. In the long term, the companies making the best products win.

They also have really great model names like the Seagull.

 

[Artful Dodger]

2 mil seems like a solid baseline for next year, everything on top is gravy.

Well, that's a boatload of gravy then, 'cuz I added up the current rated capacity of known existing GA lines across all factories and came up with 2.53M for 2024.

That's my baseline production no. Any extra gravy is like a 2nd Model Y AWD line at Austin, or a 2nd line at Berlin, or a faster CT prod. ramp, or Shanghai hat trix...

Cheers!

 

[uscbucsfan]

Surpassing Tesla, China’s BYD Will Take On the World in 2024

China’s electric-vehicle maker BYD will be on top of the world this year, with overseas markets its main battleground. In the fourth quarter of 2023, it surpassed Tesla to become the bestselling pure EV maker in the world, having already overtaken Volkswagen last year as the most popular...

finance.yahoo.com

I should be happy BYD and Tesla driving the world towards sustainable transport, I am overjoyed for the future of the planet

however, down one level we have MSM in US that is continually to be rooting for BYD over Tesla ...the same media that portrays China as the boogeyman ... in other areas of concern...

i know MSM goal is to manipulate short term stock price movements and this is the primary objective ... but it is still infuriating that they don't root for the home team...is BYD advertising in the US ?

its just sucks ...plain and simple

Where is an example of MSM rooting for BYD? It's been pretty clear for the past 2 years that BYD would surpass Tesla, it's a matter of when, not if. Reporting that isn't favoring one company vs. another. BYD sold 1.6 million BEVs in 2023 and 3 million total cars.

BYD will likely never sell in the US and they offer lower priced options, it's not an apples to apples comparison, but MSM isn't wrong about BYD gaining on Tesla.

 

[Krugerrand]

Where is an example of MSM rooting for BYD? It's been pretty clear for the past 2 years that BYD would surpass Tesla, it's a matter of when, not if. Reporting that isn't favoring one company vs. another. BYD sold 1.6 million BEVs in 2023 and 3 million total cars.

BYD will likely never sell in the US and they offer lower priced options, it's not an apples to apples comparison, but MSM isn't wrong about BYD gaining on Tesla.

Thank you for defining disingenuous.

 

[Zero CO2]

Where is an example of MSM rooting for BYD? It's been pretty clear for the past 2 years that BYD would surpass Tesla, it's a matter of when, not if. Reporting that isn't favoring one company vs. another. BYD sold 1.6 million BEVs in 2023 and 3 million total cars.

BYD will likely never sell in the US and they offer lower priced options, it's not an apples to apples comparison, but MSM isn't wrong about BYD gaining on Tesla.

you forgot the /s

the constant articles aboutBYD overtaking Tesla ... they don't need to promote them at all
the talking heads on MSM giddy over the prospect of BYD overtaking Tesla ... maybe i am reading into it ...but i dont think so

 

[Knightshade]

Well, that's a whole lotta gravy then, 'cuz I added up the current rated capacity of known existing GA lines across all factories and came up with 2.53M.

But we know actual production isn't running at that rate (or all that near it for Austin and Berlin especially). And with the loss of IRA credits on 2/3 trims of the 3 in the US, loss of other subsidies elsewhere, and interest rates still relatively high it's unlikely there's 700k extra buyers out there in 2024 for the same existing models at anything near current prices (plus whatever # of CTs are produced but that's gonna be nearer 70k than 700k for 2024)