Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

50 km seems plenty

The New Roaster just needs a large enough bty pack so it can still hit top speed near the end of a lap at the Nurburgring. Right now, Plaid S backs off power due to thermal limits, so more efficient electronics and better cooling are a higher priority than more range, IMO.

Cheers!

 

[WarpedOne]

So more efficient electronics

48V & 800V

 

[Surfer of Life]

All this back and forth about Evapco units is probably annoying everyone to death at this point.

It’s own special thread would sure be nice!

 

[Surfer of Life]

The New Roaster just needs a large enough bty pack so it can still hit top speed near the end of a lap at the Nurburgring. Right now, Plaid S backs off power due to thermal limits, so more efficient electronics and better cooling are a higher priority than more range, IMO.

Cheers!

So long as it meets or exceeds all performance Elon promised in its reveal, then it’s good to go; maybe I’m crazy, but I value credibility, so if it doesn’t perform as advertised, then as an investor, I don’t want it in production until it does. It really matters, because of the Cybertruck’s lower specs, and for Roadster 2 they took non-refundable deposits, didn’t they?

 

[jerry33]

It’s own special thread would sure be nice!

I'm sure the Mods will start to Evap them as just about everything has already been said.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In Q1 2018, when Musk's comp plan was announced, there was similar sentiment. "Negative earnings Q after Q! Flat stock for years. What is he thinking?" With TSLA's market cap averaging right around $50B, a stock-only comp plan with vesting traunches at every $50B change in market cap up to $650B seemed insane to many. Yet, within less than 3 years we all saw what Elon saw prior to Q1 2018, perhaps a decade before most; TSLA should not be measured in TENS of $Bs or even hundreds of $Bs...but $TRILLIONS.

I see 3 fundamental differences now in 'Tesla the Company' vs when the Board of Directors created the 2018 CEO Comp. Plan:

1. Tesla is now a fundamentally sound company (no debt, strong cash position, positive free cash flow). Remember, 'volatility is not risk' in spite of what short-faced bares would have you believe.
2. Tesla has a diverse and growing product line (Model 3/Y ramp succeeded wildly; CT and Model 2 now started; Megapack and Tesla Energy products entering the steep part of their 'S' curves for growth; FSD+bots; manufacturing/licensing ie: bty cells, whole car factories)
3. Tesla is self-fundingnow:
   1. We don't need to go back the the Market, ever, to grow the company. Just 2 years ago after Battery Day, Cathie Wood / ARK Invest was predicting Tesla would need to raise $90B from the market to fund their growth plans through 2030. Now we see that Tesla will need NOTHING from the Market
   2. Tesla is now near the limit on the number of shares it is allowed to issue, according to its bylaws. In fact, 'dilution' was a major risk for certain bears years ago, and will be mitigated soon enough by limiting employee compensation through stock grants, and eventually by stock buybacks

We, the shareholder, paid for these gains, accepted the risks, and that's why we are in this advantageous position going forward. For Elon to bring something actually new to the table, worth more dilution and its associated problems, we'd need to see another Master Plan. But wait, we already have M/P3 and its a 50+ yr plan.

On the other hand, giving Elon another huge swack of stock options invites more mischief from short sellers who even now live in hope for the day when Elon starts selling shares to pay the taxes on his stock-based compensation. Remember last time? It was just 1% of the companies shares, and the shortzes parlayed those fears into a 75% drop in the SP (from which it has still yet to recover even after 3 years). What do you think will happen before Apr 2028 when Elon inevitably sells 5% of TSLA (less dilution since Apr 2018) to pay the taxes due on excercising his stock options? How about when he sells his shares for cash to fund Mars Base One? The shortzes live for that day, I swear.

No, the Board needs to come up with a better plan (if Elon even wants to remain CEO). How about cash? That's still useful, right? The amount of money his time worth is now largely a function of continuity of vision and execution, not so much of introducing brilliant new chess moves.

IMO, the Board must address these two issues directly:

1. how will the CEO be allowed to sell his stock grants in such a way as to not tank the SP; and
2. is this a better deal for an already-profitable company than just paying a wage?

 

[avoigt]

Something investors should not miss: Tesla is hiring Engineers for high-volume mass production of Optimus

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746846334647214183

 

[Max Plaid]

It’s own special thread would sure be nice!

Hey, they're just letting off some steam

 

[Artful Dodger]

for Roadster 2 they took non-refundable deposits, didn’t they?

No, the deposits were refundable. Roadster will have better specs as a sports car, even if that better balanced configuration means lower range, but far less mass (w. 6,000+ SuC stations Tell me honestly: when was the last time you drove 600 miles w/o stopping? Ever?

For comparison to other supercars, can you tell me this (without peeking?)

Spoiler: What is the range of a Bugatti Chiron?

280 miles, 450 km, a little less than a Plaid S

 

[cliff harris]

TBH I am less keen for a repeat of the previous CEO compensation scheme since Elon bought Twitter. I'm actually glad he bought it, and think the turnaround is remarkable, but as a Tesla investor it is unarguably ANOTHER distraction for a CEO now managing:

• SpaceX
• Tesla
• Boring
• Neuralink
• X
• X.AI.

In fact that is TWO big new distractions, X.ai and X.com. If Tesla was walmart, I would be less fussed, and if SpaceX was walmart I'd be less fussed, but it feel ridiculous that neither being CEO of Tesla or SpaceX is a full time job, and thats without 4 other companies. I am a big fan of everything these companies are achieving, but there are limits to what any person can do. If there is a big disaster happening at GigaTexas on the day SpaceX launches astronauts or Starship, our CEO will be busy elsewhere. That is bad enough without the other distractions.
I think a sensible Tesla board would tie any future ambitious compensation plans to Elon stepping down from one or more of his existing positions. I definitely think both neuralink and the boring company would be fine now without him having anything more than an ownership stake.

 

[EVWatcher]

Something investors should not miss: Tesla is hiring Engineers for high-volume mass production of Optimus

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746846334647214183

This job posting honestly makes it seem like they have a ways to go.

Hiring techs to work on assembly would be better news.

Looking for a senior level design engineer to get Optimus in production looks like they don’t feel like they internally have someone capable of designing Optimus in a way that it can be mass produced.

 

[Mengy]

Something investors should not miss: Tesla is hiring Engineers for high-volume mass production of Optimus

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746846334647214183

I'm telling you, I really do believe we'll see revenues from Optimus before we see revenues from Robotaxis!

 

[Tony73]

I see 3 fundamental differences now in 'Tesla the Company' vs when the Board of Directors created the 2018 CEO Comp. Plan:

1. Tesla is now a fundamentally sound company (no debt, strong cash position, positive free cash flow). Remember, 'volatility is not risk' in spite of what short-faces bares would have you believe.
2. Tesla has a diverse and growing product line (Model 3/Y ramp succeeded wildly; CT and Model 2 now started; Megapack and Tesla Energy products entering the steep part of their 'S' curves for growth; FSD+bots; manufacturing/licensing ie: bty cells, whole car factories)
3. Tesla is self-fundingnow:
   1. We don't need to go back the the Market, ever, to grow the company. Just 2 years ago after Battery Day, Cathie Wood / ARK Invest was predicting Tesla would need to raise $90B from the market to fund their growth plans through 2030. Now we see that Tesla will need NOTHING from the Market
   2. Tesla is now near the limit on the number of shares it is allowed to issue, according to its bylaws. In fact, 'dilution' was a major risk for certain bears years ago, and will be mitigated soon enough by limiting employee compensation through stock grants, and eventually by stock buybacks

We, the shareholder, paid for these gains, accepted the risks, and that's why we are in this advantageous position going forward. For Elon to bring something actually new to the table, worth more dilution and its associated problems, we'd need to see another Master Plan. But wait, we already have M/P3 and its a 50+ yr plan.

On the other hand, giving Elon another huge swack of stock options invites more mischief from short sellers who even now live in hope for the day when Elon starts selling shares to pay the taxes on his stock-based compensation. Remember last time? It was just 1% of the companies shares, and the shortzes parlayed those fears into a 75% drop in the SP (from which it has still yet to recover even after 3 years). What do you think will happen before Apr 2028 when Elon inevitably sells 5% of TSLA (less dilution since Apr 2018) to pay the taxes due on excercising his stock options? How about when he sells his shares for cash to fund Mars Base One? The shortzes live for that day, I swear.

No, the Board needs to come up with a better plan (if Elon even wants to remain CEO). How about cash? That's still useful, right? The amount of money his time worth is now largely a function of continuity of vision and execution, not so much of introducing brilliant new chess moves.

IMO, the Board must address these two issues directly:

1. how will the CEO be allowed to sell his stock grants in such a way as to not tank the SP; and
2. is this a better deal for an already-profitable company than just paying a wage?

All tech company CEOs get stock compensation. It is still the best way to align management interest with that of shareholders.

Musk’s stock selling tanked the stock because it was done at a frenetic pace to close the Twitter transaction.
The market could have absorbed that volume if it had been done in a more responsible manner. The board can stipulate how he can dispose of his stock.
A 10b5-1 plan with instructions to not exceed 5% of daily volume would not move the stock.

 

[hobbes]

Something investors should not miss: Tesla is hiring Engineers for high-volume mass production of Optimus

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746846334647214183

Good that they are thinking about mass production early on in the design, but IMHO this job ad does not imply design is done and they are about to ramp up production. The same ad includes "Support early sensor prototype development" among many other tasks that don´t talk about production but design.

 

[Usain]

Something investors should not miss: Tesla is hiring Engineers for high-volume mass production of Optimus

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746846334647214183

I wouldn't get too excited just yet. When hiring for technical positions, the "What you'll do" section is usually in chronological order and order of importance. For this listing, production tasks are near the bottom of the list.

From this listing it sounds to me like they are looking for someone who can generate specs and work with multiple teams to make sure that Optimus is on track to be something that can eventually be manufactured on a large scale. But that doesn't say anything about how soon mass production will start. It just says that once they are ready to pull the trigger on mass production, they won't have to do a big redesign.

Unlike other companies, Tesla does not create prototypes that will probably never be manufactured and sold (see Boston Dynamics' Atlas robot).

At Tesla, manufacturability is part of the overall design. This job listing simply reflects that ethos.

When will Tesla pull that trigger on mass production of Optimus? I believe it will be happen as soon as Optimus has proven it can do something economically useful. As far as we know Optimus isn't there yet. But as soon as it happens, mass production won't be far behind.

 

[mongo]

The range of Roadster 2 is a side effect of the pack size needed for the power output for top speed and acceleration (based on current chemistries) along with its efficiency due to lower weight and aero drag. (energy due to power)

It's the counterpoint to Semi which has high acceleration and climbing performance due to its high energy pack. (power due to energy)

Regarding timing, they may have (partly) been waiting on 800V vehicle systems. Steer by wire may have also been a consideration to enhance safety at 250MPH. To misquote Maverick, "If you twitch, you die"

Engineering Analysis: Tesla Roadster Performance Specs Validated

 

[jerry33]

The range of Roadster 2 is a side effect of the pack size needed for the power output for top speed and acceleration (based on current chemistries) along with its efficiency due to lower weight and aero drag. (energy due to power)

Agreed. Similar to a tire casing will last around 80,000 miles because of the strength it needs to carry the load, or a semi tire's casing last around 500,000 miles.

 

[Tony73]

I'm telling you, I really do believe we'll see revenues from Optimus before we see revenues from Robotaxis!

And that is a good thing. Robotaxis will lose a lot of money for a long time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think a sensible Tesla board would tie any future ambitious compensation plans to Elon stepping down from one or more of his existing positions.

On Dec 9, 2021 Elon asked this question:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "thinking of quitting my jobs & becoming an influencer full-time wdyt" / Twitter

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469153995428085762

I think the BoD needs to answer the man (ie: tell him what they think)

 

[wws]

No, the deposits were refundable. Roadster will have better specs as a sports car, even if that better balanced configuration means lower range, but far less mass (w. 6,000+ SuC stations Tell me honestly: when was the last time you drove 600 miles w/o stopping? Ever?

For comparison to other supercars, can you tell me this (without peeking?)

Spoiler: What is the range of a Bugatti Chiron?

280 miles, 450 km, a little less than a Plaid S

Roadster should be able to do "hot laps" around, say, Laguna Seca, for a 30 minute session in order to satisfy critics...