Sat morning musings....
Been here, off and on, for 12 years, came from the tesla.com forum when they messed up my owner status...water under the bridge. Been at Microsoft, Tesla, Google, SpaceX and the company that makes Taser! (oh the humanity) leading teams developing cutting edge AI, HW and SW tech....
I'm seeing the usual 'hand-wringing' and folks that are battle hardened defending positions. All par for the course as this is like my 9th rodeo (at least; I've lost count).
Some recent data points on why I stay convinced that there is no competition:
- Scale is hard
- Drivetrain efficiency is hard
- Effective electrolyte cocktail implementation is hard
- OTA of all ECU's is hard
- Material Science is hard
What companies have demonstrated they can do any of the above with regards to electric vehicles?
- BYD - only in China
- Hyundai - I could be convinced on drivetrain efficiencies for the Ioniq overtime.
- That's it, all other attempts have utterly failed or are in the process of failing.
Who seem to be closest to possibly being on the right path? Spoiler: All Chinese and I've all but written off Japan, South Korea, Europe and US; sans Tesla and maybe Rivian (as they are killing it in utility vans right now)
- A handful of Chinese startups you've never heard of actually (educate yourself) and lots of consolidation as companies get weeded out (currently ~90 it seems)
- Chery with a ton of sub-brands which offer electric drivetrains
- XPeng
- Voyah
- Baojun
- Maybe a few others...
And lastly, the macro, yeah, the macro, that has to sort itself out (largely reverse course) for Tesla to get back to ATH's, but that is out of Tesla's control.
This is a very useful post, with exceptions. One exception is saying BYD only China when they are rapidly making plant and infrastructure investments in numerous countries and being welcomed enthusiastically in several, especially for commercial vehicles (trucks and busses), solar energy: batteries, (including highly scalable packs), solar panels (including bi-facial and local production in multiple countries), trains (both municipal and inter-city) and more. BYD is moving as quickly as is anyone, and has recently allegedly surpassed CATL in volume of batteries being sold.
It's surprising you did not mention Geely, which is having good success with Volvo and LEVC, not to mention other brands. They do manage to exand rather more quietly than do some others.
The oddity is that none of the Europeans, Americans or Japanese seem to have been able to be notable. Bizarrely BMW has had recent sales success with new models.
Hyundai/Kia are suddenly beginning to demonstrate abilities. They should not be dismissed easily.
Including Xpeng, though must be a tribute to flying cars.
Mentioning Voyah is odd since they are just another brand for Dongfeng, which is definitely making progress. perhaps you meant that Dongfeng may succeed in going upscale.
Mentioning Baojun is odder still since it is an SAIC engineered product in their JV with GM. Perhaps the wiki might help with perspective since they produce several mediocre models to sell around the world as Chevrolet Brand. I do think SAIC will be successful, especially considering that they have a fairly long history producing vehicles that European and GM cannot successfully do on their own.
It is indeed a good idea to do serious homework on Chinese competitors. One you mention, Chery, now produces several highly successful models in Brazil, including a small EV, and have captured the accolade of the best quality cars made in Brazil. Chery has proven high success in partnering with competent local firms trough the world, but haven't yet proven high success with EVs, which have been, to date, conversions of their ICE models positioned as if they were not. . Although small, they've been highly successful in Indonesia as well as Brazil, both not easy to enter for most OEM's.
The quickest way to observe Chinese success is to travel to Africa, South America and non-Chinese Asia.
Then it will become quite obvious how and where they are succeeding. Then it will also be obvious that Chinese companies are building infrastructure to support transition to solar and wind power, as well as building grid support for electrification.
[addendum: for my new house the bidders for my off-grid electric house are ALL using Chinese equipment, with the sole exception being an Austrian Inverter supplier from a single bidder. The ONLY single brand to offer a compete solution is BYD, which has pricing advantages due to Brazilian production of their battery packs, solar panels and most ancillary equipment.
No question! Chinese suppliers are rapidly dominating renewables with ready availability, good service and high quality. For some unfathomable reason it seems most North Americans and Europeans really cannot see this happening, right before their eyes.
To be clear, I really wanted Tesla for almost all of this, including my car. Sadly for me, only a Chinese brand, Volvo, had an EV model that would serve my needs. I still want Tesla. Nobody, nobody has even the remotest clue if they speak of market saturation when Tesla Energy and Tesla vehicles are not available in numerous major markets around the world. Leading with Tesla Energy is easy in much of the world.
Lastly, I am simply reporting what is actually happening. I am most definitely convinced Tesla will be a major force wherever they go, and do so by expanding markets.
