Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

I did some pack-size estimates based on the 123 KWh CT pack and some composite factorization for number of cells used. TL;dr is I think the LR Model Y will have a 82 KWh pack and the Gen 3 car will have a 41 KWh pack, all of which are capable of charging on 800v DCFCs like Supercharger v4.

Cheers!

Any DCFC capable car, even a 400v one, is capable of charging on a v4 charger... 800v (actually closer 1000v) is just the max the charger can supply. And Tesla's one 800v architecture vehicle (the CT) can reconfigure it's pack to charge on a 400V Supercharger/DCFC.

Are you saying you believe the Gen3 will also be an 800v pack architecture car?

 

[Tony73]

the sub $30k car will also be closer to $30-$35k by the time all is said and done... the "sub $30k" will go the way of the 300 miles, $49k Cybertruck

That can’t happen. If that is the case, they might as well just cancel right now.

They would be better off de-contenting the model 3 to create a new base model.

 

[scaesare]

yup, was mentioned in CC. It's old item, but had forgotten about it.
I think Samsung is building it for them.

Yeah, I heard that reference when they talked about the progression from MobileEye to Nvidia, to their home-grown chips.

I was wondering if something new was also mentioned, but gotcha, just something you were reminded of...

 

[Artful Dodger]

'unboxed' is likely just a small part of it. There is something special there they are not talking about.

Agree. Optimus will be in the factory, and on the GA line. It will become the way Tesla grows production w/o growing headcount (possibly even keeping labor costs flat). Huge advantage.

No mention of bitcoin. Was it sold?

It's listed under "Digital Assets" in the financial charts. They didn't sell any (same amnt listed for over a year)

Cheers!

 

[MartinAustin]

Where have you been all these years x 4 for Tesla ERs, Danny boy? When has Tesla ever catered to WS? You know Tesla doesn’t play your game, Dan? Because the whole lot of you are shortsighted, selfish, manipulative thieves. Missed estimates? Maybe you suck at estimating. Maybe get together with Troy. Go ahead, don’t be happy. It’s not hurting Tesla. Tesla is absolutely killing it as a company and THAT is actually your job to know when a company is solid financially and when it’s not. The whole narrative about bulls and bears is a bs narrative to keep the likes of this crook in a job. The real narrative is supposed to be the company. Should be THIS company on its way to being invaluable.

The whole game of "missing wall street estimates" - since when was it wrong to reveal the truth about a company's financial situation, and to reveal that the guesstimates were all wrong? We never hear "Wall Street Guesswork was wrong again!" - because it's the financial media. Any failure is always placed on the company to meet the bar set by Wall Street analysts. Wong way around.

 

[Atomsla]

Have owned all my TSLA (2500 shares ) since 2016 and have never sold any of it. I was in for the long-term but now I’m starting to question that decision. I don’t see anything else in 2024 that is going to give the stock any kind of boost perhaps I’m missing something. I’m considering rolling it into AMZN

Do realize the stock only goes up when it makes no sense for it do so. 2024 sounds like an excellent year for it.

 

[MD70]

My concern is the revolutionary process to make the next car will be harder than anticipated and as a result even more delays will take place.
Imagine the situation we would be in now if instead of the cybertruck a more conventional truck had been designed. We could be selling in the hundreds of thousands a year by now.

I hope the same process does not repeat itself with the next gen vehicle.

 

[Krugerrand]

Wall Street won't take that pleasantly.

Good. They don’t deserve to know.

Did nobody notice the clear difference in analyst questions? The clear divide between Tesla and WS?

One side is interested in how to make the world a better place. Interested in how to bring to the people amazing, helpful products as quickly as possible without risking the company financially. The other side wants to know mundane, short term, irrelevant numbers while ignoring the herd of elephants in the room. For gawd’s sake WS won’t even acknowledge the war chest of cash that Tesla is growing all the while investing BILLIONS.

I understand this is what WS does. Like the dealership model, the Swedish Labor Market, the auto industry, and all the rest - time to change how you do business.

 

[mongo]

Yeah, I heard that reference when they talked about the progression from MobileEye to Nvidia, to their home-grown chips.

I was wondering if something new was also mentioned, but gotcha, just something you were reminded of...

Well, they did call out version 3 of the Tesla NN chip which is going on HW5. That's sort of new, unless one expected the Samsung process change to be more than just a die shrink.

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah, I heard that reference when they talked about the progression from MobileEye to Nvidia, to their home-grown chips.

I was wondering if something new was also mentioned, but gotcha, just something you were reminded of...

Nothing really "new, other than a remark about HW5 being far along which one could kinda figure was true anyway, no more detail than that beyond an off-hand remark of doing something with it while the car is parked maybe... and doesn't really matter until they actually know, for sure, what HW level is actually needed for safe >L3 driving, which they can't know until they actually achieve it.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla spent $8.9B in CAPEX in 2023 (the highest ever) and still had $4.4B of cash left over.
I am Buyback agnostic; I can make a case for it and against it BUT I do believe that if Tesla generates around $2B in FCF by end of Q2, that would provide enough confidence to announce a buyback if share price is still low.
They will always have access to the capital markets . . .a strategy to buyback stock at $200 a share and later do an offering at $400 a share is not a bad thing.

View attachment 1012053

Once fsd is close to operational or operational would be the right time to announce a buyback. At the point
they would be buying just before a major run up. Buying before model 3 is ramping is also risky.

 

[EVWatcher]

Good. They don’t deserve to know.

Did nobody notice the clear difference in analyst questions? The clear divide between Tesla and WS?

One side is interested in how to make the world a better place. Interested in how to bring to the people amazing, helpful products as quickly as possible without risking the company financially. The other side wants to know mundane, short term, irrelevant numbers while ignoring the herd of elephants in the room. For gawd’s sake WS won’t even acknowledge the war chest of cash that Tesla is growing all the while investing BILLIONS.

I understand this is what WS does. Like the dealership model, the Swedish Labor Market, the auto industry, and all the rest - time to change how you do business.

I may have missed a few questions from WS but tbh the WS questions came of as surprisingly "hot stone massage like" to me. The questions seemed very in tuned with "you guys are so great at making things more financially viable, do you think this will continue". That sounds boring maybe but it is fundamentally important to successfully making the world a better place through delivering a product.

 

[Krugerrand]

Again, the monthly payment on a new Tesla today is much lower than it was in 2022.

Run the math yourself on the payment for a 60k car at 3% versus a 40k car at 7%.

This is true. However, that’s not how the average person views the situation. They don’t do the math from last year vs this year. YOU might. Other people don’t. Most other people don’t. All they see is ‘OMG! look at how high those interest rates are!?’ All they hear is the constant bombardment of news about how bloody high interest rates are. All they know is that they can’t afford the monthly payment. Period end of story.

 

[scaesare]

Nothing really "new, other than a remark about HW5 being far along which one could kinda figure was true, no more detail than that beyond an off-hand remark of doing something with it while the car is parked maybe... and doesn't really matter until they actually know, for sure, what HW level is actually needed for safe >L3 driving, which they can't know until they actually achieve it.

Right, but you and @mongo are talking about FSD chips which already have been in vehicles for years.

I was responding to @elasalle who said that on the call it "Was good to hear that the chips in the cars are Tesla based already", as if that was news on this call.

So may question was if there was something other than FSD that was new this go-round. He's since clarified there is not, he just forgot about it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Alternate Uptick Rule kicked in at -10% from yesterday's Close: $207.83*0.9 = $187.04

....

EDIT to add: The 'Alternate Uptick Rule' will remain in effect until tomorrow at 4:00 PM Eastern time, the Close (normal short selling rules apply again in the After-hrs session on Fri, Jan 26, 2024)

Cheers!

How are we at 186 now then? Maybe I'm misunderstanding the rule.

 

[wsucougz]

Have owned all my TSLA (2500 shares ) since 2016 and have never sold any of it. I was in for the long-term but now I’m starting to question that decision. I don’t see anything else in 2024 that is going to give the stock any kind of boost perhaps I’m missing something. I’m considering rolling it into AMZN

Some companies, you just have to let them cook.

 

[cliff harris]

Future with Optimus changes this I bet think.

This essentially goes away with Optimus as the costs to add more shifts becomes linear and proportional (a robot can work shorter or longer each day). The new workers would only need extra battery breaks is all.

And if a factory isn't 24/7, you have equipment warm-downs every night. This makes the case to run 24/7 at a slower pace to meet demand exactly, everyday. Wow, how things will change in the future!

Also optimus is theoretically perfectly multi-skilled. Optimus can move from one job in general assembly, to another, to unpacking boxes of components, to any other task in the factory, as needed. If any optimus has been trained to do a task, they all have.
That makes the workforce perfectly fluid and adaptable. A far cry from the 1970s days of 'demarkation' and workers striking at the suggestion that a worker does another worker's job.

 

[mongo]

How are we at 186 now then? Maybe I'm misunderstanding the rule.

You can't sell short at the bid, but you can still sell at the bid, so order book and stock price can be driven downwards.

 

[2daMoon]

Dan IVes is not happy with the call.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750492031795831245

Whiney beaches the entire lot of analysts can be when they aren't given easy math problems for their quarterly pop quiz.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

That can’t happen. If that is the case, they might as well just cancel right now.

They would be better off de-contenting the model 3 to create a new base model.

building a sub $30k EV in the US with US labor costs/ cost environment will be extremely hard. Not sure why they are set on Austin and not upcoming Giga Mexico...