Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Max Pain is only updated once per day, at around 7 a.m. ET. Look again tomorrow.

Agree... again. So they forgot to do it today b/c it was 215 yesterday as well.
That was my original question and follow-up clarification later in the day... it's a dead horse now.

 

[Electroman]

In a nutshell - the pain TSLA is going through is for one and one reason only: 4860 did not pan out as expected. It may reach its full expected potential maybe in a year or two or more, but now after 4 years after announcing all the great things, 4680 turned out to be Meh.

- Energy density: they need to fix it. It is subpar. C-
- Charging curve: it is subpar. C-
- Cost: I will give it a B+. I think the cost reductions are panning out which is good

Until they fix 4680 - either energy density or charging curve - TSLA is going to flounder. FSD or not.

 

[Krugerrand]

These are things that a startup does. Tesla is or should be a more mature company...

Says who? You? There’s nothing about Tesla that is mature. You’re thinking of GM or some such. Tesla will never be mature as long as its goal is to innovate faster than you can change your underwear. You’ll want to keep that in mind so you can get rid of all the box thinking you’ve got going on in your head about how a company should be.

especially in regards to a mass produced car (Gen3). The CT doesn't even have AP, can't offroad currently, has a poor charging curve, cannot charge on non-Tesla NACs, doesn't have any sort of real towing modes for range estimation or payload estimation (like almost every truck in the world). And obviously the build quality on most of the customer deliveries has been pretty poor and random.

Wait five seconds. K?

The CT was never intended to take down the F series sales, despite the hopium, but a $25k EV that has mass appeal could take down ICE standard vehicle sales to a level that the M3/Y can't, if executed properly.

Your opinion unless you’re holding back on us and you were in the room when they were talking about it.

 

[uscbucsfan]

In a nutshell - the pain TSLA is going through is for one and one reason only: 4860 did not pan out as expected. It may reach its full expected potential maybe in a year or two or more, but now after 4 years after announcing all the great things, 4680 turned out to be Meh.

- Energy density: they need to fix it. It is subpar. C-
- Charging curve: it is subpar. C-
- Cost: I will give it a B+. I think the cost reductions are panning out which is good

Until they fix 4680, Tesla is going to flounder. FSD or not.

That's an odd takeaway. 4680 isn't what battery day promised and may never be, but what we see in the stock is exactly what Tesla said, we are exiting the ramp of 3/Y and waiting on the "2" to start. Those are mass produced vehicles. Currently the CT, S, X, and Semi are not. Until they get the 2 and/or additional factories, we won't see explosion in growth, but Tesla is still profitable and will expand on energy, which the SP doesn't recognize as much as it's still primarily a car company. That will change as well.

FSD, until it's solved, won't be a serious contributor.

The future is promising with Bots, FSD, energy, new factories, new battery plants, new car, but it will be pretty flat for 12-24 months.

 

[Krugerrand]

What is the PE ratio of a company with expected growth rate of 10%?

Who cares? Doesn’t apply therefore irrelevant.

 

[MD70]

https://x.com/freshjiva/status/1750590066911776856?s=46&t=_ZWFOBbx4xiS9UI94-893Q

Any other predictions?

 

[Krugerrand]

I like to hear different perspectives.

Absolutely. I just prefer they not lie to my face. It’s a waste of my time to listen to a lie.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Says who? You? There’s nothing about Tesla that is mature. You’re thinking of GM or some such. Tesla will never be mature as long as its goal is to innovate faster than you can change your underwear. You’ll want to keep that in mind so you can get rid of all the box thinking you’ve got going on in your head about how a company should be.

It's why we have these wild swings and "FUD" about Tesla's cost cutting leaving customers without features for over a year, poor QA/build quality, etc. As an investor, I would hope you would want Tesla to mature a bit. I do. 5 seconds? Is that when USS-less cars will be getting the rest of their FSD features?

Your opinion unless you’re holding back on us and you were in the room when they were talking about it.

I don't even know what this means?

 

[geometro]

GM's Cruise... "failure of leadership" (related to pedestrian accident last year):

https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/gms-cruise-confirms-doj-investigation-of-driverless-car-incident-b249c13b?mod=browser_push

 

[Snerruc]

Well, a couple of hundred pages back, I wrote that it looked like Tesla had exhausted the easy sales in their current markets and was having to grind out conquest sales. This report would appear to agree with that theory. Fortunately, they appear to be in good position to do just that. The greatest need for expansion isn’t money or hardware. It’s people, people of all types. Berlin needs line workers. Texas needs people of all types. engineers, production specialists, coders. Tool and die people. Somehow Tesla will surmount this problem, but throwing massive amounts of money at this problem will not solve it. Obviously Tesla knows that. They will spend money effectively to solve this problem, but much waits on finding people, sometimes even just lowly line workers. This is not like building a building. You can’t put a schedule on it.

 

[lafrisbee]

Agree... again. So they forgot to do it today b/c it was 215 yesterday as well.
That was my original question and follow-up clarification later in the day... it's a dead horse now.

The second chart "The volume chart maturity" gives a better view of what is happening during the day. Right now it is between 185 and 190. It changes during the day. Even it can't keep up today.

 

[hobbes]

Good morning dear forum! After 5 hours of restful sleep, I can report that I found yesterday's quarterly report, the outlook - even if (or because?) no firm forecasts were given - and the conference tenor to be very good and encouraging. I was actually expecting a jump in the share price after this month's decline, but ... oh well.

Starting point:
I am a long-term investor. My entire portfolio consists only of TSLA. I started with 150 shares in 2017 and have bought more almost every quarter since then. (Only once, in spring 2022, did I sell a small stock position to pay for a Model 3 LR). Split-adjusted, my lowest purchase price was 15 EUR/share (~17 USD), my highest 280 EUR (~305 USD), my average is around 140 EUR (~153 USD). In the last three weeks I have already bought 130 shares in four tranches, much more than my usual quarterly investment.

Plans:
I currently still have a 3.5% interest-bearing overnight deposit in the bank, which I can use to reach a very nice round total number - my long-planned target amount - of Tesla shares.

Need for decision support:
My finger was already hovering over the buy button more than once this morning. Coming from Swabia, known for its extremely frugal, if not stingy, natives (I'm not one, but I've been conditioned that way), I'd honestly like a little more encouragement.

Many thanks in advance!

If this post with more than 100 likes doesn´t cut it for you.. I am afraid I can´t make a better sales pitch

 

[2daMoon]

In a nutshell - the pain TSLA is going through is for one and one reason only: 4860 did not pan out as expected. It may reach its full expected potential maybe in a year or two or more, but now after 4 years after announcing all the great things, 4680 turned out to be Meh.

- Energy density: they need to fix it. It is subpar. C-
- Charging curve: it is subpar. C-
- Cost: I will give it a B+. I think the cost reductions are panning out which is good

Until they fix 4680 - either energy density or charging curve - TSLA is going to flounder. FSD or not.

It seems like getting production output rolling along and ramping to phenomenal rates as soon as possible would be much more important.

R and D can continue to provide improvements to energy density and charging curve. Upgraded chemistry, materials, or techniques can be implemented on the running production lines as they become available.

If the product can be put into service now and they can produce millions and millions of them while improving them as they go, wouldn't that serve the mission?

Is there any reason to slow the production ramp until the battery is closer to perfect?

 

[SO16]

A decent reply to a good post, then a lot of shitty comments showing that x is terrible for productive debates:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750486563144737225

I don’t find it that great of a reply.

The same thing could have been made with Tesla early on when they went from the roadster to bringing on autopilot to energy. Those have been pretty good moves.

 

[Krugerrand]

I have worked for and with some very polished CFOs who could not get the job done. They looked great, spoke well, smiled often but couldn't deliver the results. I too wish Vaibhav was a better communicator but my hunch is that he was Zach's right hand person and may have had some responsibility for the financial results that we saw from 2018 to 2022 (Vaibhav joined in 2017). His focus on cost reduction and capital allocation toward innovation and growth drivers is promising. We'll learn more of who we have over the next couple of quarters.

In what way do you not think he communicated effectively? Obviously, there’s a pretty thick accent to get through that can cause issues for some without a practiced ear to it. When an Irish or Scottish man speaks, I don’t understand a single word having gotten so caught up in the accent itself, I swoon. Persian accents make me smile and happy. Hillbilly redneck accents make me want to chew tobacco, grab my shotgun, and shoot up a saloon.

Anyway, in an earlier post I mentioned that I felt instructions had changed for our CFO. Zach ‘Cash Is King’ Kirkhorn was allowed to, as I said, spoon feed WS. And he did an excellent job. But we’re past that phase of Tesla where they had to hoard cash and get out from under debt. We’re in a new phase now and our new CFO seems to have been playing coy, as if he was instructed not to give any forward projections at all and to stick to the deck script.

I could be wrong, but I was right they didn’t guide. I feel (yes, all my left brain nerds, I trust my feels because they’re always right) that something has shifted at Tesla - again.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Personally, despite a potential one or two year lull, Tesla looks stronger than ever to me with regards to future growth. I'm holding on.

If it's any consolation, TSLA is likely to exit the S&P 500 's "Top 10" list tomorrow morning... that's right BROADCOM is the future!

 

[lafrisbee]

Why is the stock down today. Well this time it ain't the MM's. The MM's are saving your (and a little bit of my) bacon. But just for today.
Looked at the stock volume a little while ago and it is up over 50% from the average volume. And on an "average day" a huge percentage of the volume is from MM's playing their games.) Those are some real trades making the volume that high. The MM's are playing different games today trying to keep it from falling faster. Be thankful today. They are trying to resituated their calls and puts, and whatever else BS they do. Right now they are trying to lose as little as possible. If they didn't game the system today I think it'd have been a stampede by the weak-bellied retail investors. And so close to the week-end the MM's are gaming hard.
But from where this ant sits all they are doing is fighting a retreat. They'll keep battling, but only to help them in their games. Whatever is happening today with the SP is not reality. It might be a glimpse, or it might be most of this is over. But what you see isn't what is out there.
I'll also throw this out there for those snorting hopium. Maybe just maybe the MM's are making the stock drop and are reaping in all the shares from the weak. But I can't see this volume and any way the MM's could play that game.
BTW. I am an ant.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

If it's any consolation, TSLA is likely to exit the S&P 500 's "Top 10" list tomorrow morning... that's right BROADCOM is the future!

or not. the outlook of slowing growth and no accelerating growth drivers in the pipeline for the next ~24 months isn't justifying a 40+ P/E ratio

 

[mad474]

If this post with more than 100 likes doesn´t cut it for you.. I am afraid I can´t make a better sales pitch

Yes, very true, thank you! And many thanks also to all the other knowledgeable advocates in this forum, not forgetting the amazingly accommodating share sellers of today. Your offers have become very acceptable. My (planned last) big buying spree has now begun. Today I increased by 40 shares and I look forward to further opportunities with great anticipation. I will not conceal the fact that my shopping experience is accompanied by a certain feeling of rage combined with the deep satisfaction that I am allowed to indulge in it. Sincerely!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Zach had a really sleep inducing voice (it doesn’t help that these earnings calls are in the middle of the night in Europe). The new CFO is slightly better in that respect. Only slightly.

So how many years until we have AI chatbots doing the Conf. call instead of humans? Personally I'm fonda Jane (much nicer than Maxx Painroom)