Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Eugene Ash]

When has the CT ever been perceived as part of a growth story?

The CT was presented as an innovative, disruptive, next gen technology story. Every step of the way they have spoken of how everything about the truck will be different from design, to the materials, to the assembly line. This doesn't paint a rosy picture for growth.

It is more an example of a Tesla Blade Runner Pickup, for a 21st Century Bubba.

The reveal never left any impression Tesla had intentions of it being on par with M3 or MY (growth story) production levels. Though I can say I've always expected it to have higher production numbers than S and X.

Though, thanks to its immense popularity, I agree how it may now become a growth story.

CT at is also a showcase and a blueprint pull for a new 48v-centric supply chain. This supply chain build-out can't be done with a cheap vehicle, and there is enough margin in CT and guaranteed volume for suppliers to invest and get on-board. By gen3 time, we'll have 2nd or 3rd revision of 48v architecture that opens up so many technical and economic possibilities!

 

[lascavarian]

Been looking at the 26 June leaps. Seems like they have dropped quite a percent in the last week…

 

[Christine69420]

Gary Black also has a $10B buyback in a pinned tweet on his home page--I just dismissed it when I saw it, but maybe there's some truth/talk of it with Tesla execs??

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750540958511362071

Tesla have a lot on it's plate that needs financing. And it's nice to have a big buffer if recession hits. So it's my opinion that if Tesla does a buyback they will later pair it with a stock issuance to raise capital.

Or they could live a simpler life and do neither. This is the path I believe in.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Been looking at the 26 June leaps. Seems like they have dropped quite a percent in the last week…

Indeed the drop in price was significant, thus I bought some DITMs for these with couch money. NFA

 

[jabloomf1230]

$150 before $200. I love the long term story but according to Musk himself, they are in a growth slump until the gen 3 vehicle comes out and that’s 2 YEARS from now.

What's the "S" stand for, short?

 

[mongo]

Tesla is adding $500M worth of Dojo compute to Giga Buffalo [edit: confirmed Dojo by Elon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750988656611926260

 

[2daMoon]

^^^ See what happens when we are in a slump!

/s

 

[Paul_SF]

Tesla is adding $500M worth of Dojo to Giga Buffalo

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750988656611926260

Better make 9 more of this and a new Gigafactory! Not a buyback like those WS puppets scream about.

"Ha, and they said we are only a car company"...

 

[Artful Dodger]

It is more an example of a Tesla Blade Runner Pickup, for a 21st Century Bubba.

Yeah, w/o Mars we wouldn't have gotten either Cybertruck or Optimus. Both are needed for the Musk future. And every high school boy will want a Cybertruck, just as every Hotel concierge service in Fukushimi will want Optimus bots...

Cheers!

 

[hobbes]

Tesla is adding $500M worth of Dojo to Giga Buffalo

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750988656611926260

Must be what Rohan Patel was talking about (was discussed here before):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747082108055527626

 

[mongo]

Must be what Rohan Patel was talking about (was discussed here before):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747082108055527626

Correction, it may not be Dojo. Governor's actual remarks were "I'm also proud to announce that Tesla is investing $500 million to build their next supercomputer right here in Buffalo."

Edit: Elon says it's Dojo (link further on)

 

[Discoducky]

Most likely it is both GPU and Dojo. Let's hope Elon posts and clears that up.

EDIT: Incase folks want to keep track of data centers: Buffalo Data Centers - Colocation and Cloud

 

[Zero CO2]

Tesla is adding $500M worth of Dojo to Giga Buffalo

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750988656611926260

is it actually DOJO or NVDIA ? either way good news

 

[CitizenKane]

Interesting and solid advice from someone working at Tesla.
Not sure how this somewhat long post will display here on TMC so let me point out some interesting lines:

Do you know what one of the most common words used by business media and equities analysts happens to be? Surprise.
Surprise beat. Surprise miss. Surprise Surprise Surprise.
By no means is this a jab, but typically I am not eager to align my economic interests with a forecaster (another word for guessing, by the way) who is surprised all the time.
If you view equity as truly ownership in a business, which would make you in the 1% of people who operate like this, you should not concerned about daily price action.
If you do not want to own a company for 10+ years, do not own it for 10 minutes.
Think of your % ownership just as if you owned a coffee shop. You will have peaks and valleys but over time (do not get lost in short term noise) if you are a customer centric business that provides a great desirable product, the chance of success long-term is on your side

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750914983808909679

I subscribe to almost everything he writes but disagrees with his first sentence and am quite sure Ben Graham would too: "The stock market is not designed for investors." Quite the opposite - it is the fact that the market is short term irrational but long term rational that makes it designed for investors. How else can you buy something at a good value? If the market was fully efficient, you might as well buy an index fund.

 

[Big Time]

Check out that hella cliff we just fell off! Send it! New slope achieved! EPIC SWAN! New record for quick drop? Totally gnarly nosedive brahs + bradettes + catbrahs + catbrahdettes.

 

[The Accountant]

I subscribe to almost everything he writes but disagrees with his first sentence and am quite sure Ben Graham would too: "The stock market is not designed for investors." Quite the opposite - it is the fact that the market is short term irrational but long term rational that makes it designed for investors. How else can you buy something at a good value? If the market was fully efficient, you might as well buy an index fund.

When I worked at public companies, senior management knew what the stock price was every day (and mid-day) and if there was even a slight move, the executives would discuss it briefly with the chit chat that happens before meetings commence.
When I worked at private start ups, we had no idea what our value was day to day. We knew we had a $200m valuation . . a year later it was $350m, so on.

I think what he means is that the stock market with quotes by the second/minute is not designed for a true investor. I don't need to know what my investment is daily if I a a long term owner. I think this is what he is trying to convey.

Edit: Confession: At the public companies, I was guilty at looking at the stock price a few times a day . . . those options!!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I subscribe to almost everything he writes but disagrees with his first sentence and am quite sure Ben Graham would too: "The stock market is not designed for investors." Quite the opposite - it is the fact that the market is short term irrational but long term rational that makes it designed for investors. How else can you buy something at a good value? If the market was fully efficient, you might as well buy an index fund.

If it were designed for investors, there wouldn't be traders.

 

[Tony73]

Elon has 304M stock options which expire on January 20, 2028. Given a 53% tax rate, Elon would need to sell about 161M of those shares just to pay the income taxes.

There are precisely 1,453 trading days between Monday and Expiry day. He'd need to sell an average of over 110K shares EVERY TRADING DAY for the next 4 years just to execute his stock options (he'd still need $7.1B in cash for the $23.33/share execution price).

You think that wouldn't tank the SP? No, there needs to be a better plan... and the Board should get on this.

It wouldn’t tank the stock. If he did it in 1 year instead of 4, it still wouldn’t tank the stock. This is a $500 billon market cap company.
Half a million shares is less than 0.5% of daily volume.
During the Twitter dump, he was sold as many as 3 million shares a day

 

[mongo]

is it actually DOJO or NVDIA ? either way good news

Elon says Dojo!

The governor is correct that this is a Dojo Supercomputer, but $500M, while obviously a large sum of money, is only equivalent to a 10k H100 system from Nvidia.Tesla will spend more than that on Nvidia hardware this year. The table stakes for being competitive in AI are at least several billion dollars per year at this point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750997027922567324

 

[Drumheller]

- it is the fact that the market is ... long term rational

Is it, though?