Point of sale is not a credit to Tesla and doesn't impact CoGS.
Only leases and other credits under 45W would be realized to them on vehicles. 45X on cells and modules
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Only leases and other credits under 45W would be realized to them on vehicles. 45X on cells and modules
I played with options (leaps) around the Model 3 initial ramp thinking if they were far enough out (2 years) I would profit. I hadn't predicted Elon's funding secured tweet which tanked them. I have a belief Tesla will continue to grow as the world transitions from fossil fuels and as the AI/robot age plays out. However as you say it cannot be predicted when exactly so I hold unleaveraged shares and will continue to add and hold for at least the next decade. I have factored in they might not and there is a small non zero chance they will fail long term and go bankrupt.
Being invested keeps me interested in Tesla's journey which I find enjoyable and can't think of another company with such a possible trajectory.
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Drumheller
Active Member
The hype that cybertruck ramping and plans were sandbagged and that it would overtake the F150 did not come from Tesla. That hype was generated here in this thread.
At this point, I think the posts about Tesla sandbagging and pushing optimism beyond what Tesla stated are just as bad as the posts from people about how Elon lied, Tesla is doomed, etc.
My opinion is that this thread should aim for facts in both numbers and what was actually said. Elon doesn't sandbag. He's an optimistic, which results in the opposite of sandbaggging.
At this point, I think the posts about Tesla sandbagging and pushing optimism beyond what Tesla stated are just as bad as the posts from people about how Elon lied, Tesla is doomed, etc.
My opinion is that this thread should aim for facts in both numbers and what was actually said. Elon doesn't sandbag. He's an optimistic, which results in the opposite of sandbaggging.
Consider the possibility that options are the product and farming demand is a profitable endeavor
Yes, the figure of around 250k a year when production is ramped is the only number from Tesla and they have only given very rough timelines on when that will be achieved, if Tesla can't predict it then what hope does a random person posting on a forum have?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Certainly not true. I clearly remember Elon talking about how they want to take on F150 (and noting that is the largest selling vehicle in US) and recling trucks is an important part of electrification. He even said - if the CT design/looks is too polarizing they will make a "normal" truck that will sell in large numbers to take on F150. This was in some interview / podcast ....
The biggest thing I have noticed from this v11 vs v12 comparison is that v12 indeed can arrive at the answer much faster than v11 as you see in just the first 16 sec, the v11 did not have enough reaction time to slow for the first speed bump. This is what taking out 300k line of code, shortening the distance between input to output looks like.
Weekend OT:
How amazing it is that when Elon started the DOJO project most the people didn't even realize the next few years a chip company will gain +1T in valuation for chips that DOJO is trying to do better and cheaper, because he could see where the puck is going?
I remember when people were laughing at the possibility of Tesla making a foundry, but now with Optimus and xAI, maybe that was not a really crazy idea?
What else was Elon talking about in the last year? What is the next major stuff the majority don't realize will be a major problem/opportunity in the next 2 years?
He said this last year:
"My prediction is we will go from an extreme silicon shortage today, to probably a voltage transformer shortage in a year, and then an electricity shortage in a year into two years".
Yeah, we all know he's not great at timing, but he's generally right.
Electricity shortage sounds scary.
How amazing it is that when Elon started the DOJO project most the people didn't even realize the next few years a chip company will gain +1T in valuation for chips that DOJO is trying to do better and cheaper, because he could see where the puck is going?
I remember when people were laughing at the possibility of Tesla making a foundry, but now with Optimus and xAI, maybe that was not a really crazy idea?
What else was Elon talking about in the last year? What is the next major stuff the majority don't realize will be a major problem/opportunity in the next 2 years?
He said this last year:
"My prediction is we will go from an extreme silicon shortage today, to probably a voltage transformer shortage in a year, and then an electricity shortage in a year into two years".
Yeah, we all know he's not great at timing, but he's generally right.
Electricity shortage sounds scary.
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Chevy Blazer EV. This is the most scathing auto review imaginable. "I couldn't wait to get out of this car". Consumer Reports may be biased against Tesla, but they've never been so brutal as this.
Later in the video, there is a Q&A with a question about the drive train of the future and how quickly EVs might take over. The Consumer Reports guys see relatively slow EV adoption in the US. As much as I tend to have faith in Tony Seba, I'm worried that Consumer Reports could be right because the big three are so inept.
Tesla can't do this alone. It's possible that the only way to electrify the US fleet and meet our climate goals is to allow BYD to come in without tariffs. Not gonna happen.
Later in the video, there is a Q&A with a question about the drive train of the future and how quickly EVs might take over. The Consumer Reports guys see relatively slow EV adoption in the US. As much as I tend to have faith in Tony Seba, I'm worried that Consumer Reports could be right because the big three are so inept.
Tesla can't do this alone. It's possible that the only way to electrify the US fleet and meet our climate goals is to allow BYD to come in without tariffs. Not gonna happen.
SunCatcher
Member
GM Management; "Yeah, us too (can't we just keep making ICE vehicles, PLEASE?)
I has become abundantly clear that legacy auto really, really, REALLY doesn't want to transition to EVs.
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Interview with Pierre Ferragu. I've only watched the first 10 minutes but it is very relevant content:
SunCatcher
Member
Elon often mentions Physics' "First Principles Rule".
Mankind; "That's impossible!" Elon, seeing that the problem is actually a possibility, according to the laws of physics; "This may take awhile, but HOLD MY BEER!"
Krugerrand
Meow
Aren’t the weekly numbers posted on the you know what platform that come out of China, local registrations?
2023's best-selling EVs – Rivian R1S outsells Tesla Model X and Ford F-150
Tesla’s Model Y was the best-selling electric vehicle in the US in 2023 by far, but other EVs from VW,...
electrek.co
Tesla's #1 and #2, 3 was a cheap, production-limited, boxy subcompact EV with crap DCFC, #4 was a compact crossover that's just all round meh.
Only 3 vehicles out of the top 10 are "big" 3.
We just needs cheaper and better EVs and that'll redefine who the "big 3" are. LGES will be making LFP cells from 2025 and that should help companies like GM who depend on them.
BYD can come in without tariffs. They just need to manufacture in Mexico. I believe parts suppliers are already building up. But they won't be able to get the tax credit except by leasing, and no manufacturer wants to lease if there's a downward price trend.
It's a nice poison pill for any Republicans who want to scrap the credit to know that doing so would remove a competitive barrier.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Sounds like a time when the price to "fill up" our Tesla's might get painfully expensive unless the owner invested sufficiently in sustainable energy....
My wife and I watched the 3 Equalizer movies this week. 2 on Hulu and 1 on Netflix. Amazed me how many EV advertisements that were pushed to us. I have never seen so many. Not the type I really would want to see from Tesla, but I didnt expect to see so many. Dont know if it is because we are in Florida now.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yes, it's still a crazy idea. Folks like Nvidia and Apple don't make their own foundries because it makes no economic sense to do so and in the absolute best case goldilocks scenarios Tesla won't be using as many chips as they already do for years yet.
SunCatcher
Member
We installed a 7.4kWh rooftop solar array around 14 years ago. At this time it has totally paid for itself. Today's solar panels have more than doubled their output production for the same footprint and cost. Inverters are far superior to the ones we had to choose from.
That doesn't matter to us, because we now have free, no, FREE, I mean Frikken' FREE electricity coming to our home from our roof, possibly for the next 11 years or longer, considering the 25 year life expectancy of those panels.
To anyone who has the financial means, and a good sun-facing rooftop, I ask; "What on earth are you waiting for?" The years ahead will come and go, whether you are proactive or not.
Sure, we all would like the government and power companies to lead the way in addressing climate change. And they have made it clear that they are dragging their lead filled boots in that direction, but painfully slow. Being early adopters means doing everything we can to ensure that the mission is expedited. And low and behold; it actually pays. TCO; Total Cost of Ownership applies to more than just our electric cars!
Electricity prices on the move up? Of course they are! Except for those of us who get our power for free.
Ha HA!
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