Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MrMoo]

They do have 2024 guidance: ramping Cybertruck, 4680, and Energy Storage, developing Gen 3 line, FSD, and Optimus



Tesla has given clear guidance on how much it intends to grow over a multi-year span and has also stated that 2024 will be a slower growth period. That the plans take more than 12 months to implement does not mean they don't exist.

I’m specifically talking about 2024 which you yourself and Tesla have said will be a slow growth period. And comparing that to the “mature company” which has no problems growing 20%.

Look like I said it’s not going to be a popular opinion. Everyone’s going to hang on things like cyber truck or energy but these things are not going to move the needle. That’s why Tesla admits they are in between growth cycles because they need the cheaper car.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753158486937006354

Relevant thread:
V2G in a robotaxi world

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Quoting a deleted post

That's very interesting, I've honestly never considered the possibility that humanoid robots could work FASTER than humans. More hours per day for certain, but faster?

And truly right now I'm wondering why I never considered that before, seems reasonable upon contemplation...

Even if they moved at the same actual speed they would still be much more productive per hour given the relentless consistency. Most stations would be able to up their cadence safely.

 

[Stormy24]

Oh no!

https://x.com/reuters/status/1753374065471992284?s=61

 

[2daMoon]

Correct, for the original 13 colonies. For States added after the Louisiana Purchase not so much...

The point was simply that if Elon wanted to run for Governor, like Arnold did in California, there would be no Constitutional barrier against it (like why Arnold can never be President)

Their joining after the forming of the U.S. does not change the relationship between any individual state and the union created to serve them. U.S. law is inferior to state law in regard to qualification of candidates for state offices.

Correct, there is no prohibition under the California or Texas constitutions requiring candidates for governor to have been born in either the state itself, nor the United States. Only the U.S. Constitution has such a birth requirement for specific candidates.

Still, I think that Elon involving himself in such muck would be lowering his aim compared to what he is attempting to achieve to help all of humanity now.

 

[Mengy]

Look we can only agree to disagree. But apart from price cuts ( and they have run out of those it seems ) I don’t see them having any plans over the next 12 months. The 25k car plans started too late and we are stuck in limbo until 2026.

This is obviously going to be an unpopular take but when I said in 2021 I found it hard to believe we would grow 50% again in 2022 I got hated on then and I was right. Every successive year has been lower and lower projections. Granted it’s only been 2 years since my post about that I’m talking short term here so I can only refer back a couple of years.

I actually think we have flat growth this year.

Oh I agree with you on the mostly flat growth for 2024 and most of 2025, I agree 100% on that and TSLA will suffer for it. BUT, a flat year or two does NOT mean Tesla isn't planning for new growth, we know for a fact huge new growth is on the way, we are simply in a lull period while they prepare for it.

And yeah it's true the 4680 ramp is behind schedule and has probably delayed the growth a bit, but a global pandemic also happened and Tesla weathered that extremely well. Volatility is expected and things rarely go perfectly, but that does not mean they aren't happening at all!

 

[mongo]

I’m specifically talking about 2024 which you yourself and Tesla have said will be a slow growth period. And comparing that to the “mature company” which has no problems growing 20%.

Look like I said it’s not going to be a popular opinion. Everyone’s going to hang on things like cyber truck or energy but these things are not going to move the needle. That’s why Tesla admits they are in between growth cycles because they need the cheaper car.

Maybe I'm reading too much into your word selection, but I take umbridge at 'admits'. It's not like Tesla was pinned down by an investigative reporter and forced to confess some deep dark secret. Their plans have always been multi-year with faster and slower periods.

Slower != slow, and vehicles are only part of the Tesla portfolio. If you want to say Tesla doesn't have a plan because 2024 lacks a giant milestone, that's up to you.

Yeah, we will strive to do so starting from this quarter. And just a brief update from the business perspective: Megapack continues to see strong demand signals globally, driving consistent growth trajectory through '24 and '25. We want to thank all of our partners who have put their trust in the Megapack team to execute on critical infrastructure around the world. And I would like to personally thank the Megapack engineering and production teams for their strong 2023 execution. Lathrop continues to ramp through 2024, with the operation of a second final assembly line to double capacity from 20 to 40 gigawatt hours by the end of the year.

 

[scaesare]

I believe what his trying to say is Meta is doing a lot better than TSLA so a buyback and dividends sound good. Where as Tesla can't do that.

I'm pretty impressed with the FCF generation. Meta managed to generate in 2 quarters all of TSLA's cash on hand to date. They gave guidance of 20% growth for the coming year too.

Tesla really is pathetic if you think about it lol.

I can only assuming you are gunning for the "Thumbs Down Crown"...

 

[mongo]

As for Tesla's "2.1 million vehicle recall!!!!!" are we going to have to live with this BS forever, or what?

Not BS, Tesla was non-compliant with US Federal requirements for vehicles, thus triggering a recall campaign.
That the fix is easily done via OTA update doesn't negate their error.

 

[cusetownusa]

Oh no!

https://x.com/reuters/status/1753374065471992284?s=61

lol...the main headline on WSJ was how Tesla has another recall, which is the latest "setback" for the company. FUD headlines in recent months have been intense.

 

[2daMoon]

I’m specifically talking about 2024 which you yourself and Tesla have said will be a slow growth period. And comparing that to the “mature company” which has no problems growing 20%.

Look like I said it’s not going to be a popular opinion. Everyone’s going to hang on things like cyber truck or energy but these things are not going to move the needle. That’s why Tesla admits they are in between growth cycles because they need the cheaper car.

So, are you implying a short-term troll is unable take into consideration a long-term outlook and consider it as continued growth?

I think you just like the attention you get by tossing out irrational and unreasonable statements and thus stirring the pot.

 

[The Accountant]

Oh no!

https://x.com/reuters/status/1753374065471992284?s=61

LOL - Font size.
The move comes on the same day Tesla said it was recalling 2.2 million electric vehicles - nearly all its US units - due to incorrect font sizes on warning lights that increase the risk of a crash. No crashes or injuries have been reported.
Tesla began releasing an over-the-air software update on Jan. 23, free of charge, to fix the issue, the regulator said

 

[CitizenKane]

I can only assuming you are gunning for the "Thumbs Down Crown"...

I hope the thumbs down option is not used because someone disagrees with a conclusion or an opinion. This forum is more interesting and useful if different perspectives and outlooks are met with curiosity, not judgement.

 

[scaesare]

... I don’t see them having any plans over the next 12 months.

...Tesla have said will be a slow growth period...

One of these things is not like the other...

 

[tslagreen]

lol...the main headline on WSJ was how Tesla has another recall, which is the latest "setback" for the company. FUD headlines in recent months have been intense.

Of course, Reuters is always quick to report the "news." Whenever I see a bad Tesla headline, it seems like 9 out of 10 times it is first reported by Reuters. Cue the famous Jim Cramer clip...

 

[Usain]

Look we can only agree to disagree. But apart from price cuts ( and they have run out of those it seems ) I don’t see them having any plans over the next 12 months. The 25k car plans started too late and we are stuck in limbo until 2026.

I actually think we have flat growth this year.

I believe price cuts will continue this year because COGS will keep going down as battery and raw material prices fall dramatically. But prices won't go down enough to negatively affect margins. I expect margins to go up slightly.

What this will do is crush the competition. And by competition, I'm including ICE cars. ICE is done and this is happening fast.

But a long term investment in TSLA is a bet on autonomy and bots. Autos and energy will continue to throw off enough cash to fund those projects and build out massive AI computing power. That's what you are buying when you buy into Tesla - autonomy and bots with the AI resources to get them working.

So the question becomes, when do autonomy and bots start to become a financial reality? (TL;DR - one to three years for both)

FSD V12 is looking really good. It looks like the platform that will not hit a local maximum. You just throw more training time at it and the system gets better and better. I think within a year, Tesla could start a trial of geofenced robotaxi even before Gen 3. Unlike Waymo, Tesla's system would be profitable very quickly because FSD is very low cost. Nobody else can match it from a cost perspective. Then Tesla starts pumping out Gen 3 vehicles, they enter more markets, and FSD gets better and better. In a few years, Tesla's robotaxis are everywhere and FSD is so good that geofencing is no longer needed.

As for the bots business, this could also become a reality quite soon. All Tesla needs to do is demonstrate that the bot can do useful work. Given the infinite number of possible use cases for a humanoid robot, finding profitable work for Optimus should not be too hard. So this should happen relatively soon. As the bot gets smarter and smarter through AI training, it becomes more and more valuable. So then the only question is if competition can drive the price down. But Tesla is the only company on the planet with all the core competencies needed to develop the humanoid robot and manufacture it at scale. The competion will try to keep up by partnering, but it won't be enough.

All it will take for the stock price to get huge is for the market to realize that autonomy and/or bots is really happening. One to three years is my estimate.

 

[scaesare]

I hope the thumbs down option is not used because someone disagrees with a conclusion or an opinion. This forum is more interesting and useful if different perspectives and outlooks are met with curiosity, not judgement.

Well, the forum says it means disagree:

I think there's some value in knowing if opinions are widely held and/or conclusions agreed with. I've certainly stopped to think twice about some things based on whom may disagree with a statement.

I don't think it should be used simply because you don't care for a poster, however...

 

[jerry33]

LOL - Font size.
The move comes on the same day Tesla said it was recalling 2.2 million electric vehicles - nearly all its US units - due to incorrect font sizes on warning lights that increase the risk of a crash. No crashes or injuries have been reported.
Tesla began releasing an over-the-air software update on Jan. 23, free of charge, to fix the issue, the regulator said

Grasping at any straw to inconvenience Tesla or show it in a bad light. Most people ignore those lights anyway.

 

[GOVA]

re: Chile

FYI - Chile is #1 copper producer. Not bad to have Tesla presence in there.

 

[UncaNed]

I can only assuming you are gunning for the "Thumbs Down Crown"...

Got the "Ignore" crown from me.

Edit - Oh, and everybody please don't feed the trolls, thank-kew!

Edit again - And blessed are the Mods.