Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

They share 75% of their parts according to Tesla themselves... so yes?

Again, you are mistaken. No wonder you hold the opinion on Tesla you do, you haven't done your homework!

 

[terranx]

Again, you are mistaken. No wonder you hold the opinion on Tesla you do, you haven't done your homework!

I literally looked it up before I posted and looked it up again after Knightshade's post. Everyone is saying 75%, attributing it to Elon or Tesla itself.

Do you have a source that isn't a random dismantler from China claiming that it's only 25%?

Maybe the initial claims are dollar amount rather than sheer number of parts. We do know that the batteries, motors, heat pump, headlamps/taillamps, electronics, and much of the interior are shared. I could see those named ones easily adding up to 75% of the cost of the car.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I wasn’t.

Then the whole conversation is moot.

Ok. So? He believes its trajectory is solved. That’s his opinion. Agree/disagree what does it matter? He’s only one man, but Tesla continues to grow and expand on its mission.

His opinion matters because it's waaay more influential than others. Funny how "with great power comes great responsability" wroks everywhere but for Elon's twitter.

Yes? So? What do you want him to say about the guy who has a high probability of being the next president and who has a bug up his butt about EVs right now? You want Elon to say something and make another enemy? Shrugging and answering as he did (that it doesn’t matter what that guy thinks because we’re going EVs with or without his opinion) was absolutely perfect. But here you are criticizing Elon.

Wait, weren't you the biggest supporter of Elon's great courage against hypocrites? the man who always speaks his mind? I'm confused.

So? He’s spoken on the topics ad naseum for over a bloody decade. Broken record/beating a dead horse. What exactly do you think he needed to say to that group of people that he hasn’t already said thousands of times?

A decade ago those people didn't even know who Elon was. Now that he's Elon Musk he could have repeat at lest a few of the good ol' talking points about CC. Besides, Elon repeats himself so much that we have a Earning Call bingo.

In truth you’re just upset it wasn’t a political group you support.

More that he seems to not want to talk for the mission, which is still dear to my heart. Politics is secondary (but yes, I dislike his new Italian fascist friends (literally neo-fascists, look them up)).

So? None of that is in contradiction. Define short term - exactly. A day? A week? A decade? Define long term - exactly. Six months? A century? A millennium? What exact time frame was he referencing?

Boh, he says that all the time, I don't know which time scale he applies. We all know (I hope) that each year is worse, with droughts and new stronger hurricanes etc. Again, unfortunately, it's kinda important what people understand, not really what he intends. I know Muck enough that I get why he reiterates that phrase. But given he's communicating every day in front of an audience of millions, it's important how is perceived.

I imagine he’s thinking a carbon tax (which he’s been in favor of for well over a decade), would speed up the demise of the fossil fuel industry thusly helping the planet and the climate - LENGTHENING mankind’s existence on the planet.

I agree.

Your take may or may not be correct. Maybe you should ask him directly then you don’t have to make assumptions.

I can't.

Again, that’s your take and assumption. Let’s assume you’re right and he’s bored. So, what? He’s entitled to live his life, not the life YOU want him to live. He’s not psychoanalyzing you and telling you how to move through life.

Yes.

Sir, everyone is a walking paradox.

There are people who are good at talking and people who are good at doing. There are people who admire good talkers, people who can be swayed by good talkers, people who can be outright fooled by good talkers.

There are people who are good at doing and people who admire doers.

So, what?

He doesn’t care what you think. You can disagree until you’re blue in the face, he’s going to do whatever he’s going to do.

I'm talking to people in this forum, not him. It's what we all do all day.

The judgement, though, that you swing around is hypocrisy at its best. He’s done more, given more, sacrificed more, (DOING over TALKING) than you or anyone else have towards helping fight climate change, but you disagree with who he hangs out with and what he says. Bless your heart.

I don't see how it's hypocrisy, I recognized he's doing a lot. All I'm saying is that is contradicting himself in a weird way. I don't know if you are on X and are notified for his new tweets. I do and I read them all, so I'm quite confident about what I say.

You realize there are over 100,000 people working at Tesla, and that the company is growing as fast as it can, doing as much as it can. He can’t make it go any faster and neither can you by adding to the pile on.

Yes.

Yes. Long term we are dead. See above, a person focusing on political parties and leanings, criticizing someone who’s accomplished impossible tasks nobody else would even try and so on.

Now, I don't understand why you always have to be Elon's watchdog and bite everyone who dares criticize him. This is a Tesla Investor Forum. It's a hobby and a place to learn and get information. I actually learned a lot from you, but not from the posts where you just bully people in silence writing twice they did in the first place, with a patronizing tone that after seven years has become quite irritating.

You are not alone. And that is why we are dead. Stop criticizing. Stop disagreeing. Stop talking. Go do.

You have written 14,228 posts in this forum.

 

[rallykeeper]

Is +1.2% in a quarter > the moving average growth rate?

Nominal GDP in Q4 was also +1.2%, so debt grew at roughly the same size as the economy. Totally normal!

In general, household debt to GDP has been trending down.

(Edited chart for better longer source).

p.s. They didn't even cite their source -- since that would undermine their intent. Here you go: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2023Q4)

p.p.s. Pro-Tip: whenever you see economic data cited only in nominal $, someone is probably trying to pull a fast one.

 

[Oveeus]

I've been giving some thought lately as to what's going on with TSLA and piecing together from the information I'm getting.

So, a while back, a close buddy of mine worked at one of Tesla's suppliers and he/she got into TSLA after seeing the orders that TSLA was placing with them.

He/she has left the company since, but from talks that he/she got with former co-workers, the order amount has not changed.

This led me to conclude a few things:
1. I agree with Elon and the board on price reduction because Tesla is still in its development phase. If it cuts production, it'd mean that it's going to take longer for them to achieve the economy of scale that they are seeking. Right now, the overall return to scale is still positive. Meaning that the further they go, the lower the average cost. This would be vital in term of market share once the market has little to no option than shift to EV as deadline looms. Yes, there's totally a risk where somehow legacy automakers find their way to "convince" the government to give them more time. But shifting to EV is inevitable. It's not a matter of if, but rather when.

2. This is a big ASSUMPTION, but stay with me for a bit. Given the "hearsay" information that I was given, the fact that Tesla has not altered the amount of orders they are placing with their suppliers, leads me to believe one thing... that another model is coming. Tesla has hinted on Investor Day that there's another "van" vehicle in the line, even though they never talked about it anywhere else. So far, we have always been given information and potential dates for the 25k model. The production methodology and processes have been discussed on Investor Day as well, but not this "van" vehicle. I think this is on purpose.
Tesla has ALWAYS made 2 models out of the same platform with the exception of the Roadster and the Semi. S/X shares one. 3/Y share another, and CT is, IMO, going to share its platform with another vehicle.

And as Tesla irons out the kinks and bumps on CT ramp and build extra production lines, I believe they are going to announce this vehicle in a pure surprise fashion. It is going to be something like "oh... btw, we are announcing this new vehicle now that the ramp is over... and it starts shipping next quarter, orders starts today" kinda thing. People has put too much spotlight on Tesla and I think it and Elon has learned a thing or two about not oversharing unless he has to.

 

[Unpilot]

Checks SP-$185.... Checks maxpain-$185....yep options tail still wagging the dog.

 

[2daMoon]

Mods should just lock this thread for a few hrs until people cool off. This thread has gone off the rails..

What rails?

/s

 

[2daMoon]

Again, you are mistaken. No wonder you hold the opinion on Tesla you do, you haven't done your homework!

and, they won't consider how those who have done the homework might have applied effective FUD filters before simply swallowing bad data hook, line and sinker.

 

[Knightshade]

That's the only source that seems to be claiming that. I see many claiming 75%

How many of those claiming 75% actually took one apart to see the real number- rather than just did what you did and parroted whatever they found on google?

I ask because the source I cited actually took the car apart to see the real number

 

[terranx]

and, they won't consider how those who have done the homework might have applied effective FUD filters before simply swallowing bad data hook, line and sinker.

No one reporting the 75% number was doing so in a negative way - it was generally done with a positive spin (cost effective etc). So not a "FUD filter" situation.

How many of those claiming 75% actually took one apart to see the real number- rather than just did what you did and parroted whatever they found on google?

I ask because the source I cited actually took the car apart to see the real number

With no report of their methodology or anything along those lines. It'd be about as credible as you taking apart the cars in your garage and saying "25% parts shared, trust me bro"

 

[SarahsDad]

Mods should just lock this thread for a few hrs until people cool off. This thread has gone off the rails..

Over the years, when this forum reaches maximum BIX (Bickering Index™), we’ve hit a local bottom. Buy the dip?

 

[Knightshade]

With no report of their methodology or anything along those lines. It'd be about as credible as you taking apart the cars in your garage and saying "25% parts shared, trust me bro"

Actual text from the source I provided:

Zhihu Automobile completed a teardown of made-in-China Tesla Model Y. The firm carried out a comprehensive analysis in terms of body construction technology, internal interaction, electrical system, battery safety, etc.

the cars appeared to share about only 25% of similar parts. For example, the front subframes of the two cars are the same, but the characteristics of the swing arms, steering knuckles, and front suspension brakes are different. Although the similarity of parts in the two cars is quite high, most of them needed separate refinement for Model Y.

If you'd taken a few more seconds to look into the folks who did it you'd find they posted quite a few teardown videos, and even displayed the pieced-apart Model Y at a major auto show in China.

But sure, it's a Trust Me Bro because it disagrees with what someone who DIDN'T take the car apart claims. That makes...about as much sense as your other arguments here so far.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hertz went all in on Tesla — and is paying the price

Hertz stock recovered in midday trade following an early slide as the company reported a wider-than-expected fourth quarter loss due to its exposure to EVs, in particular its large Tesla fleet.

finance.yahoo.com

So....it's Tesla's fault for you not training your staff adequately, not building the charging needed to handle the EV's prior to purchase and not doing the DD on how much it would cost to fix damage....got it.

 

[loquitur]

Here comes that pricing pressure with AMD. This company is a moat breaker, just ask Intel (also working on their version).

Nvidia H100 AI GPUs might cost 3 to 6 times as much as AMD's MI300s

Citigroup estimates that AMD sells its MI300 AI acceleration GPUs for $10,000-$15,000 apiece, depending on the customer. AMD and Nvidia don't publicly disclose this pricing, so making...

www.techspot.com

One way to track the horse race is to tune into the Top500 supercomputer list at top500.com.
This year the #1 (Oak Ridge's "Frontier") 1.7 exaflop machine runs with AMD CPUs & GPUs.
#2 is Argonne's "Aurora" with Intel gear. #3 is Microsoft's "Eagle" with Intel Xeon CPUs
but with Nvidia's H100s.

Next year it will likely be Lawrence Livermore's "El Capitan" with 23,500 AMD Instinct MI300A tiles. At 2.3 exaflops for FP64 performance, predicted, but with 18.4 exaflops for FP16
matrix math peak, more relevant for AI:

Lining Up The “El Capitan” Supercomputer Against The AI Upstarts

The question is no longer whether or not the “El Capitan” supercomputer that has been in the process of being installed at Lawrence Livermore National

www.nextplatform.com

 

[carterm2]

Over the years, when this forum reaches maximum BIX (Bickering Index™), we’ve hit a local bottom. Buy the dip?

The Delaware thread could use some attention.

 

[keydiver]

Mods should just lock this thread for a few hrs until people cool off. This thread has gone off the rails..

No, @terranx just needs to go pursue one of his other hobbies. As numerous people have tried to explain to him, he is preaching to the wrong group. This is a Tesla INVESTORS forum, not the "Tesla Day-Traders Forum". I think most of us HODLers would agree that Tesla is going to trade mostly flat this year, and maybe now wouldn't be a good time for a newbie to enter the TSLA market. All this means to most of us is that our big payday just gets pushed off a couple more years, and I can live with that.

 

[Carl Raymond]

You should read a book once in a while.

View attachment 1015906
Source: Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson, page 504-505.

Pilot line design has been going on for almost a year at this point.

The last para contains the words “high-speed”, right next to “ultra-automated”.
I’m not letting go of the dream of 6 second cadence, yet.
The logic:
20 seconds is too fast for humans, they would burn out, you lose the game to high staff turnover. High-speed necessitates zero-human. If you start with a zero-human premise, why settle for 20 second cadence when you can triple your capital utilisation with 6 second? And it solves the problem of 20m per year output in 2030 in the same swoop.

Optimus doesn’t feel right as the answer to 20 seconds. The design philosophy for bot v1 is one for one human to bot swappability, both ways. It would be another “bet the farm” for Musk, surely a place to avoid. Optimus isn’t certain enough for the timeline.

 

[Singuy]

Damn youtube is shameless. Just saw an ad with deepfake Elon's speech/mouth talking about scanning a qr code to become rich with BTC.

 

[2daMoon]

It is looking like TSLA might just close in the green today.

How are all the bear-do-wells and FFFs (Faithful Followers of FUD) gonna feel about that?

Does anyone else worry about their delicate sensibilities at times like this?

/S

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It is looking like TSLA might just close in the green today.

How are all the bear-do-wells and FFFs (Faithful Followers of FUD) gonna feel about that?

Does anyone else worry about their delicate sensibilities at times like this?

Don't you worry, tomorrow's a new day and the next and the next......