Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

And here i was, wondering why $TSLA was up AH:

Ford tops fourth-quarter estimates, guides toward strong 2024

Ford tops fourth-quarter estimates, guides toward strong 2024

www.cnbc.com

I don’t understand how Ford and other legacy auto can forecast such strong 2024 sales.

Dealers having extremely slow sales so far. (EVs and ICE)

Here is a summary of responses for Car Dealership Guy on X.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754638855959896074

 

[MC3OZ]

The last para contains the words “high-speed”, right next to “ultra-automated”.
I’m not letting go of the dream of 6 second cadence, yet.
The logic:
20 seconds is too fast for humans, they would burn out, you lose the game to high staff turnover. High-speed necessitates zero-human. If you start with a zero-human premise, why settle for 20 second cadence when you can triple your capital utilisation with 6 second? And it solves the problem of 20m per year output in 2030 in the same swoop.

Optimus doesn’t feel right as the answer to 20 seconds. The design philosophy for bot v1 is one for one human to bot swappability, both ways. It would be another “bet the farm” for Musk, surely a place to avoid. Optimus isn’t certain enough for the timeline.

I have replied here:- "Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process

The alternative to higher speed is multiple parallel processes. I think Elon made the comment about speed when considering a single line prior to the invention of the "unboxed' process.

I'm keeping all of my speculation on the Gen3 process in a separate thread for multiple reasons...

 

[Usain]

Are there any non-shareholders that hold that view?

Yes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It would give us another data point on if that helps push tsla green

It was already green. Hence all the trolling today. Shortzes r disparate to keep the dive alive.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Again, you are mistaken. No wonder you hold the opinion on Tesla you do, you haven't done your homework!

Sure he did, he just went to the wrong SchoolQ...

 

[Drumheller]

Yes, but perhaps it may have become a better shade of green

 

[BornToFly]

On top of Ford's MASSIVE losses on its Tesla Killers...,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754995496551080255

But F will be up more than Tesla tomorrow, because Wallstreet is full of

 

[Stretch2727]

I love to think that news tomorrow will lead with
OMG FORD LOSE $47,000 ON EVERY EV THEY SELL?????
But fords as-buyers play golf with most editors, so obviously it will all be
FORD STOCK ROCKETS AFTER BLOWOUT EARNINGS.
Its like nothing was learned from blackberry and kodak. Tesla have been around for over a decade now, showing all the established companies, WHAT to do and HOW to do it. They have even started sending them guidebooks on 48v, out of desperation that they get a clue...

...and yet they do not. I guess we can take solace in the laughable P/E ratio for Ford. I guess some long term investors can see just how likely they are to fail in the next five years. If I was a Tesla salesperson, if someone mentioned they were considering a mach-e or lightning, I might have to drop the $47k loss number. Does anyone REALLY want to buy an EV from a company with a huge incentive not to sell any, who may well not even survive to honor the warranty?

I knew Ford were rubbish at this, but honestly I let out an involuntary yelp when I saw just how bad it was.

Listened to the Ford Conf Call. A few comment from Jim Farley on EV's. Lot's of mentions of Tesla.

-They have a skunkworks team working on a low cost EV and he specifically mentioned the Tesla low cost EV as the target.
-Expect next generation EV's to be profitable within 12 months of production.
-A lot of focus on getting the right people to join Ford with variable compensation. I assume he meant stock and options.
-After the early adopters consumers will not pay more for EV over ICE. Customers have a hard time doing the math on savings and they need to change behavior (ie. charging).
-Seeing growth in EV's in the Pro market (commercial) as they do the math on the savings.
-Missed on the Gen 1 EV vehicles as they expected better pricing.
-40% of capital expense next year is EV's.
-Will not make money on EV's even in 2026.

Clearly they have challenges and much of the Q and A was on EV's. I also listened to the GM call and it is just night and day. Jim Farley gets it and understands the challenge where as Mary still projects GM as a company that will just roll through the transition easily.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I just convinced myself to get some... NVidia will soon be losing market share. Nobody maintains 92% for very long at high margin.

View attachment 1015943

I must say, this felt weird as a former Intel employee. But I gotta ask... where's Mobile-Eye now right?

Before I went all-in on TSLA I would trade semiconductor stocks. My observation was the chip stocks didn't trade with as much positive correlation as you would think. One would often be down while the others were up. I would buy the down stock and wait. Over about ten years I held AMD, MU and NVDA two or three times each and always made a nice return. Based on that experience I think AMD is going to work out for you.

Of course, the best thing I could have done would have been to simply hold NVDA. Same with SBUX and AAPL. FML

 

[Featsbeyond50]

View attachment 1015957
Bonus: all one's thoughts are original.

Pedantic: the method to which you allude reduces posts, not pages...

This is what I do and I toggle back if it looks like I missed something interesting.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

You are being even more insufferable than ever; you now are offering others little more than showing how one can be a jerk. Instead of taking the easy way of putting you on a vacation that the rest of this community desperately deserves, I’m placing this warning on open forum: no more disparaging others and their opinions, either openly or in backhanded fashion.

Audubon, while you're leaning this way, anyway you could rig the system so we have to make a post if we give a disagree? It generally annoys me if someone gives a disagree without an explanation.

 

[Knightshade]

I don’t understand how Ford and other legacy auto can forecast such strong 2024 sales.

Dealers having extremely slow sales so far. (EVs and ICE)

Here is a summary of responses for Car Dealership Guy on X.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754638855959896074

Most of the tweet you quote is about this bit in it specifically

. Many mention this month being slower than the last, with used car sales in particular seeing declines. There is still decent volume for new vehicles

Since Ford sells new cars, not used ones, to their dealers that'd explain how they can forecast strong '24 sales of legacy vehicles-- doubly so if we see rate cuts in '24

 

[Stretch2727]

So to counter all the negativity/trolls today......

Pretty cool Cybertruck delivery.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755015891828527172

 

[mongo]

Audubon, while you're leaning this way, anyway you could rig the system so we have to make a post if we give a disagree? It generally annoys me if someone gives a disagree without an explanation.

Usually, only one explanation post is needed though...

 

[SO16]

Most of the tweet you quote is about this bit in it specifically



Since Ford sells new cars, not used ones, to their dealers that'd explain how they can forecast strong '24 sales of legacy vehicles-- doubly so if we see rate cuts in '24

I saw that line too but the video says otherwise.

 

[Oveeus]

Question: what part/s is this referencing?

Is there any chance Tesla planned/plans to take the part internally? Either on the whole or in part? As in, is it possible Tesla is getting so many parts from that supplier and making the rest themselves?

Come to think of it... I believe they were parts related to 48v architecture. But the timeline was going into 24. And unless Tesla is looking to stockpile 48v components, it didn't make too much sense given Gen 3 is not going into production until 25.

 

[MC3OZ]

Come to think of it... I believe they were parts related to 48v architecture. But the timeline was going into 24. And unless Tesla is looking to stockpile 48v components, it didn't make too much sense given Gen 3 is not going into production until 25.

Cybertruck uses some 48V parts.

Apparently, the paint part of Gen3 is currently under construction, that seems to be what the big tanks being built at the south end of Austin will be used for,

 

[woof]

For example: explain gravity (I'll weight).

Well, Newton watched an Apple...no too simple. Okay, Einstein postulated...no, too massive. Then Hawking went to the limit...too dark. I know: There's no gravity: The Earth sucks!

 

[Knightshade]

Cybertruck uses some 48V parts.

Apparently, the paint part of Gen3 is currently under construction, that seems to be what the big tanks being built at the south end of Austin will be used for,

What happened to those folks insisting the next gen car would be paintless like the CT?

 

[Tachyon]

What happened to those folks insisting the next gen car would be paintless like the CT?

Best paint is “ No paint “
I believe it’s a lighter shade of Transparent .