Pretty nuts that Nvidia could have such a large intraday drop and still be up 4% for the week. I'd say it was due for a bit of a consolidation/pull back. That rate of growth is exciting, but not sustainable.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
JSML
Member
Gene Munster on FSD potential... a bit disappointing. Gene is projecting a 20% increase in net income in 2027 based on FSD adoption, if Telsa lowers the FSD price by half.
Here's the link:
Thoughts? My thoughts below.
FSD's value varies depending on use. FSD for consumers is currently priced at $ 12,000 for the life time of the vehicle. As FSD improves, which seems very likely with V12 and the neural net, commercial uses will spring up. What is to prevent Tesla or an individual operator from forming a fleet to challenge Waymo. The FSD for those cars will be priced at multiples of the consumer use. Perhaps even $ 12,000 a year. Elon has lately started to call the next gen cars robotaxis again. I hope plans are in place to put togehter a Tesla robotaxi fleet. Waymo has infrastructure to have humans overseeing the cars. Tesla can do the same and may need to for regulators. The huge advantage for Tesla is 3 fold. One, cost of the car. $ 25,000 vs $ 150,000. Two, much larger market due to no geofencing. Three, Tesla FSD is able to use the highway and that extends possible use cases of the service.
A larger market is commercial trucking. How much is FSD worth for trucking? $ 20,000 per year? Even with human supervision and human end point helpers over a fleet, that is a cost changer for the industry.
Here's the link:
Thoughts? My thoughts below.
FSD's value varies depending on use. FSD for consumers is currently priced at $ 12,000 for the life time of the vehicle. As FSD improves, which seems very likely with V12 and the neural net, commercial uses will spring up. What is to prevent Tesla or an individual operator from forming a fleet to challenge Waymo. The FSD for those cars will be priced at multiples of the consumer use. Perhaps even $ 12,000 a year. Elon has lately started to call the next gen cars robotaxis again. I hope plans are in place to put togehter a Tesla robotaxi fleet. Waymo has infrastructure to have humans overseeing the cars. Tesla can do the same and may need to for regulators. The huge advantage for Tesla is 3 fold. One, cost of the car. $ 25,000 vs $ 150,000. Two, much larger market due to no geofencing. Three, Tesla FSD is able to use the highway and that extends possible use cases of the service.
A larger market is commercial trucking. How much is FSD worth for trucking? $ 20,000 per year? Even with human supervision and human end point helpers over a fleet, that is a cost changer for the industry.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
That's tangential to the purpose of building Cybertruck right now. It is a technology demonstrator, and more importantly, a self-funding R&D project for many future manufacturing technologies, not the least of which are:
Gen 3 can not be built without these advances in technology; F-150 buyers are but the tip of the ICEburg... and their ICEburg is melting.
- 48-volt architecture
- 400/800 switchable voltage pack
- Steer-by-wire
- Rear-wheel steering
- new modular assemblyline
Cheers!
The CT may serve as a technology demonstrator but that is not its primary purpose. It gives Tesla an entry in a very large, very lucrative segment of the North American market with only three main competitors.
Elon did not kick off the cybertruck in 2017 with “let’s build a technology demonstrator”. You don’t need to mass produce a demonstrator.
Already had a neighbor breathlessly tell me about the 700 mile range of the newyet-to-be-builtRAM EV truck (est'd range is 690 miles).
They weren't interested in hearing that its a hybrid, with all-electric range of just 145 miles, or that it needs a 27 gal gas tank to go a further 545 miles... that's only 20.2 mpg on gas.
Nope, don't wanna hear it.
That is a better solution for the 1% of the pickup market that does long distance towing.
Someone that hooks his pickup up to a heavy trailer and drives cross country one or two times a year was probably never going to buy a full electric.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Years ago, Tesla banned this use case for FSD with the licence agreement, saying that FSD can only be used for autonomous taxi services inside the Tesla Network (TN). We discussed it here at TMC at the time.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Dojo is still a thing (unless talking inference)
Krugerrand
Meow
And he didn’t kick it off because there were only three competitors in the segment.
This business is almost certainly running at a loss. It may never “get there”.
Yes, and those babies mining cobalt. Plus: how will the grid cope?
Buy an ICE car instead. They literally have no issues as they age. Trust me bro’.
Yes possibly, I have also picked up various comments from people that have been selling to buy BTC, Microstrategy and other crypto related bets for some short term wins over the next month or so.
There is a good chance that this money will come back to TSLA in a relatively short time frame as a more safe haven with great upside.
I agree with both you and Dodger...
Yes, Cybertruck is a product that serves a purpose and is attempting to capture a valuable slice of of a lucrative market segment.
And the intention was to make the best pickup Tesla could.
However, it also happens to trial many Gen3 parts and techniques, and is a lower volume "stepping stone" towards Gen3.
if is important in both contexts, and I contend that Gen3 is far more important than many people realise.
Model S was an important product, Model 3 was an important product, Cybertruck and Gen3 are also very important.
Out of all of them, Gen3 is perhaps the most important, but Tesla could not have got there without the earlier stepping stones. IMO From Cybertruck it only seems like a small step to Gen3.
This is the big issue, some unlucky folk are going to buy a vehicle out of warranty and the next day the battery goes.
As a result I expect the older, higher mileage vehicles price to continue to fall and buyers will become savy enough to to ask about how the vehicle was charged.
cliff harris
Member
It feels like Tesla always tries to get 2 cars for the development cost of 1.
The X is basically a bigger S. Same basic design, same door handles, same infotainment system etc.
The Y is basically a bigger 3. Same basic design, same door handles, same infotainment system etc.
No idea what the offshoot of the CT will be, but its unlike Tesla not to leverage all that design work into another vehicle.
I'm counting the day until we get, if not actual production numbers of CT for Q1, then some suggestion as to them in the Q1 earnings. I get the impression this has been a surprisingly smooth new product release and early ramp. No major recalls, no reports of design flaws. No pauses in production.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
My belief is that the van will be based on CT rather than gen 3.
Good for you! That’s what investment is for, protecting your family. There are few things more important than housing security.
FastEddieB
Member
You may recall, we recently gave up on any current EV truck for towing, and went with a newer ICE to replace an aging ICE:
But “never” is a long time. If and when an EV truck can go at least 250 miles while towing, and pull-through charging stations become widespread, we’ll be ready to make the leap. But I suspect that’s going to take quite a few years to happen.
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